A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: Invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 264, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 729-736

  Breban, Romulus ^a   Drake, John M ^a   Rohani, Pejman ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

Endemic state; Environmental transmission; Epidemic invasion; Multi strain model

Indexed keywords

DISEASE TRANSMISSION; MODELING; THEORETICAL STUDY;

ARTICLE; AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; ENDEMIC DISEASE; ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSMISSION; EVOLUTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; STRAIN DIFFERENCE; VIRUS REPLICATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

ALGORITHMS; ANIMALS; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DISEASE RESERVOIRS; ENDEMIC DISEASES; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

EID: 77952672950     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.03.005     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Alizon S., van Baalen M. Emergence of a convex trade? off between transmission and virulence. Am. Nat. 2005, 165(6):E155-E167.
2. Anderson R.M., Donnelly C.A., Ferguson N.M., Woolhouse M.E., Watt C.J., Udy H.J., MaWhinney S., Dunstan S.P., Southwood T.R., Wilesmith J.W., Ryan J.B., Hoinville L.J., Hillerton J.E., Austin A.R., Wells G.A. Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature 1996, 382(6594):779-788.
3. Bailey N.T. The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases 1975, Hafner Press/MacMillian Pub. Co.
4. Blanchong J.A., Samuel M.D., Goldberg D.R., Shadduck D.J., Lehr M.A. Persistence of pasteurella multocida in wetlands following avian cholera outbreaks. J. Wildl. Dis. 2006, 42(1):33-39.
5. Breban R., Drake J.M., Stallknecht D.E., Rohani P. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics. PLoS Comput. Biol. 2009, 5(4):e1000346.
6. Brown J.D., Goekjian G., Poulson R., Valeika S., Stallknecht D.E. Avian influenza virus infectivity in water: viral responses to varying pH, salinity, and temperature conditions. Vet. Microbiol. 2009, 136(1-2):20-26.
7. Capasso V., Paveri-Fontana S.L. A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the European mediterranean region. Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique 1979, 27(2):121-132.
8. Castillo-Chavez C., Hethcote H.W., Andreasen V., Levin S.A., Liu W.M. Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity. J. Math. Biol. 1989, 27(3):233-258.
9. Choisy M., Brown S.P., Lafferty K.D., Thomas F. Evolution of trophic transmission in parasites: why add intermediate hosts?. Am. Nat. 2003, 162(2):172-181.
10. Codeco C.T. Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir. BMC Infect. Dis. 2001, 1:1.
11. Codeco C.T., Lele S., Pascual M., Bouma M., Ko A.I. A stochastic model for ecological systems with strong nonlinear response to environmental drivers: application to two water-borne diseases. J R. Soc. Interface 2008, 5(19):247-252.
12. D'Souza D.H., Sair A., Williams K., Papafragkou E., Jean J., Moore C., Jaykus L. Persistence of caliciviruses on environmental surfaces and their transfer to food. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2006, 108(1):84-91.
13. Dennis B. Allee effects: population growth, critical density, and the chance of extinction. Natural Resour. Modeling 1989, 3(4):481-538.
14. Ewald P.W. Evolution of mutation rate and virulence among human retroviruses. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 1994, 346(1317):333-341.
15. Field H., Young P., Yob J.M., Mills J., Hall L., Mackenzie J. The natural history of Hendra and Nipah viruses. Microbes Infect. 2001, 3(4):307-314.
16. Gandon S. Evolution of multihost parasites. Evolution 2004, 58(3):455-469.
17. Hanson B.A., Swayne D.E., Senne D.A., Lobpries D.S., Hurst J., Stallknecht D.E. Avian influenza viruses and paramyxoviruses in wintering and resident ducks in Texas. J. Wildl. Dis. 2005, 41(3):624-628.
18. Hartley D.M., Morris J.G.J., Smith D.L. Hyperinfectivity: a critical element in the ability of v. cholerae to cause epidemics?. PLoS Med. 2006, 3(1):e7.
19. Henning J., Meers J., Davies P.R., Morris R.S. Survival of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in the environment. Epidemiol. Infect. 2005, 133(4):719-730.
20. Hinshaw V.S., Webster R.G., Turner B. The perpetuation of orthomyxoviruses and paramyxoviruses in Canadian waterfowl. Can. J. Microbiol. 1980, 26(5):622-629.
21. International Scientific Task Force on Avian Influenza, Avian Influenza and Wild Birds. (2006). http://www.cms.int/avianflu.
22. Jensen M.A., Faruque S.M., Mekalanos J.J., Levin B.R. Modeling the role of bacteriophage in the control of cholera outbreaks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2006, 103(12):4652-4657.
23. Joh R.I., Wang H., Weiss H., Weitz J.S. Dynamics of indirectly transmitted infectious diseases with immunological threshold. Bull. Math. Biol. 2009, 71(4):845-862.
24. King A.A., Ionides E.L., Pascual M., Bouma M.J. Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 2008, 454(7206):877-880.
25. Krauss S., Walker D., Pryor S.P., Niles L., Chenghong L., Hinshaw L., Virginia S., Webster R.G. Influenza A viruses of migrating wild aquatic birds in North America. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2004, 4(3):177-189.
26. Miller M.W., Hobbs N.T., Tavener S.J. Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer. Ecol. Appl. 2006, 16(6):2208-2214.
27. Pascual M., Rodo X., Ellner S.P., Colwell R., Bouma M.J. Cholera dynamics and el nino-southern oscillation. Science 2000, 289(5485):1766-1769.
28. Pascual M., Bouma M.J., Dobson A.P. Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes Infect. 2002, 4(2):237-245.
29. Roche B., Lebarbenchon C., Gauthier Clerc M., Chang C.-M., Thomas F., Renaud F., van der Werf S., Guégan J.-F. Water-borne transmission drives avian influenza dynamics in wild birds: the case of the 2005-2006 epidemics in the Camargue area. Infect. Gen. Evol. 2009, 9(5):800-805.
30. Rohani P., Breban R., Stallknecht D.E., Drake J.M. Environmental transmission of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses and its implications for pathogen invasion. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2009, 109(25):10365-10369.
31. Roper M.H., Vandelaer J.H., Gasse F.L. Maternal and neonatal tetanus. Lancet 2007, 370(9603):1947-1959.
32. Sharp G.B., Kawaoka Y., Wright S.M., Turner B., Hinshaw V., Webster R.G. Wild ducks are the reservoir for only a limited number of influenza A subtypes. Epidemiol. Infect. 1993, 110(1):161-176.
33. Sharp G.B., Kawaoka Y., Jones D.J., Bean W.J., Pryor S.P., Hinshaw V., Webster R.G. Coinfection of wild ducks by influenza A viruses: distribution patterns and biological significance. J. Virol. 1997, 71(8):6128-6135.
34. Smith D.J., Lapedes A.S., de Jong J.C., Bestebroer T.M., Rimmselzwaan G.F., Osterhaus A.D., Fouchier R.A. Mapping the antigenetic and genetic evolution of influenza virus. Science 2004, 305(5682):371-376.
35. Swayne D.E., Slemons R.D. Using mean infectious dose of high- and low- pathogenicity avian influenza viruses originating from wild duck and poultry as one measure of infectivity and adaptation to poultry. Avian Dis. 2008, 52(3):455-460.
36. Webb C.T., Brooks C.P., Gage K.L., Antolin M.F. Classic flea-borne transmission does not drive plague epizootics in prairie dogs. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2006, 103(16):6236-6241.
37. Webster R.G., Bean W.J., Gorman O.T., Chambers T.M., Kawaoka Y. Evolution and ecology of influenza A viruses. Microbiol. Rev. 1992, 56(1):152-179.
38. Xiao Y., Bowers R.G., Clancy D., French N.P. Dynamics of infection with multiple transmission mechanisms in unmanaged/managed animal populations. Theor. Popul. Biol. 2007, 71(4):408-423.