메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 80, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 221-240

Linking process to pattern: Estimating spatiotemporal dynamics of a wildlife epidemic from cross-sectional data

Author keywords

Autoregressive; Bayesian; Chronic wasting disease; Current status data; CWD; Frailty; Lexis diagram; Markov chain Monte Carlo; MCMC; Odocoileus virginianus; Penalized likelihood; Prion; USA; Whitetailed deer; Wisconsin

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; DEER; DISEASE INCIDENCE; DISEASE PREVALENCE; DISEASE SPREAD; EPIDEMIC; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INVERSE PROBLEM; MARKOV CHAIN; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; PRION DISEASE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPATIAL VARIATION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WILD POPULATION;

EID: 77951755952     PISSN: 00129615     EISSN: 15577015     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/09-0052.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (74)

References (80)
  • 1
    • 0016355478 scopus 로고
    • A new look at the statistical model identification
    • Akaike, H. 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19:716-723.
    • (1974) IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control , vol.19 , pp. 716-723
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 2
    • 0043084977 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Frailty modeling for spatially correlated survival data with application to infant mortality in Minnesota
    • Banerjee, S., M. Wall, and B. P. Carlin. 2003. Frailty modeling for spatially correlated survival data with application to infant mortality in Minnesota. Biostatistics 4:123-142.
    • (2003) Biostatistics , vol.4 , pp. 123-142
    • Banerjee, S.1    Wall, M.2    Carlin, B.P.3
  • 4
    • 0028353493 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of survival on multiple time scales
    • Berzuini, C., and D. Clayton. 1994. Bayesian analysis of survival on multiple time scales. Statistics in Medicine 13: 823-838.
    • (1994) Statistics in Medicine , vol.13 , pp. 823-838
    • Berzuini, C.1    Clayton, D.2
  • 9
    • 0025179424 scopus 로고
    • Statistical problems in epidemiologic studies of the natural history of disease
    • Brookmeyer, R. 1990. Statistical problems in epidemiologic studies of the natural history of disease. Environmental Health Perspectives 87:43-49.
    • (1990) Environmental Health Perspectives , vol.87 , pp. 43-49
    • Brookmeyer, R.1
  • 13
    • 12944287801 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians
    • Clark, J. S. 2005. Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. Ecology Letters 8:2-14.
    • (2005) Ecology Letters , vol.8 , pp. 2-14
    • Clark, J.S.1
  • 14
    • 33745420790 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A future for models and data in environmental science
    • doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.03.016
    • Clark, J. S., and A. E. Gelfand. 2006. A future for models and data in environmental science. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 21. [doi:10.1016/j.tree. 2006.03.016]
    • (2006) Trends in Ecology and Evolution , vol.21
    • Clark, J.S.1    Gelfand, A.E.2
  • 16
    • 0034305555 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detection of bias in harvest-based estimates of chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer
    • Conner, M. M., C. W. McCarty, and M. W. Miller. 2000. Detection of bias in harvest-based estimates of chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 36:691-699.
    • (2000) Journal of Wildlife Diseases , vol.36 , pp. 691-699
    • Conner, M.M.1    McCarty, C.W.2    Miller, M.W.3
  • 17
    • 34247119560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A spatial, meta-BACI approach for evaluating focal management intervention on chronic wasting disease in free-ranging mule deer
    • Conner, M. M., M. W. Miller, M. R. Ebinger, and K. P. Burnham. 2007. A spatial, meta-BACI approach for evaluating focal management intervention on chronic wasting disease in free-ranging mule deer. Ecological Applications 17: 140-153.
    • (2007) Ecological Applications , vol.17 , pp. 140-153
    • Conner, M.M.1    Miller, M.W.2    Ebinger, M.R.3    Burnham, K.P.4
  • 18
    • 34547661921 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species
    • Cook, A., G. Marion, A. Butler, and G. Gibson. 2007a. Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 69:2005-2025.
    • (2007) Bulletin of Mathematical Biology , vol.69 , pp. 2005-2025
    • Cook, A.1    Marion, G.2    Butler, A.3    Gibson, G.4
  • 20
    • 0002837834 scopus 로고
    • Statistical aspects of time series: Some recent developments
    • Cox, D. R. 1981. Statistical aspects of time series: some recent developments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 8:93-115.
    • (1981) Scandinavian Journal of Statistics , vol.8 , pp. 93-115
    • Cox, D.R.1
  • 22
    • 0034666162 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identifiability and convergence issues for Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting of spatial models
    • Eberly, L. E., and B. P. Carlin. 2000. Identifiability and convergence issues for Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting of spatial models. Statistics in Medicine 19:2279-2294.
    • (2000) Statistics in Medicine , vol.19 , pp. 2279-2294
    • Eberly, L.E.1    Carlin, B.P.2
  • 23
    • 2542636541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian inference in ecology
    • Ellison, A. M. 2004. Bayesian inference in ecology. Ecology Letters 7:509-520.
    • (2004) Ecology Letters , vol.7 , pp. 509-520
    • Ellison, A.M.1
  • 25
    • 33745981477 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking chronic wasting disease to mule deer movement scales: A hierarchical Bayesian approach
    • Farnsworth, M. L., J. A. Hoeting, N. T. Hobbs, and M. W. Miller. 2006. Linking chronic wasting disease to mule deer movement scales: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Ecological Applications 16:1026-1036.
    • (2006) Ecological Applications , vol.16 , pp. 1026-1036
    • Farnsworth, M.L.1    Hoeting, J.A.2    Hobbs, N.T.3    Miller, M.W.4
  • 26
    • 20444502612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Contact surface models for infectious diseases: Estimation from serologic survey data
    • Farrington, C. P., and H. J. Whitaker. 2005. Contact surface models for infectious diseases: estimation from serologic survey data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 100:370-379.
    • (2005) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.100 , pp. 370-379
    • Farrington, C.P.1    Whitaker, H.J.2
  • 27
    • 67449128448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What time is it? Choice of time origin and scale in extended proportional hazards models
    • Fieberg, J., and G. D. DelGiudice. 2009. What time is it? Choice of time origin and scale in extended proportional hazards models. Ecology 90:1687-1697.
    • (2009) Ecology , vol.90 , pp. 1687-1697
    • Fieberg, J.1    DelGiudice, G.D.2
  • 30
    • 16344378100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian capture- Recapture analysis of a closed population allowing for heterogeneity between animals
    • Ghosh, S. K., and J. Norris. 2005. Bayesian capture- recapture analysis of a closed population allowing for heterogeneity between animals. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics 10:35-49.
    • (2005) Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics , vol.10 , pp. 35-49
    • Ghosh, S.K.1    Norris, J.2
  • 31
    • 0039377949 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for fitting spatiotemporal stochastic models in plant epidemiology
    • Gibson, G. J. 1997. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for fitting spatiotemporal stochastic models in plant epidemiology. Applied Statistics 46:215-233.
    • (1997) Applied Statistics , vol.46 , pp. 215-233
    • Gibson, G.J.1
  • 32
    • 0029661772 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fitting and testing spatiotemporal models with applications in plant epidemiology
    • Gibson, G. J., and E. J. Austin. 1996. Fitting and testing spatiotemporal models with applications in plant epidemiology. Plant Pathology 45:172-184.
    • (1996) Plant Pathology , vol.45 , pp. 172-184
    • Gibson, G.J.1    Austin, E.J.2
  • 35
    • 33646699376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demographic patterns and harvest vulnerability of CWD infected white-tailed deer in Wisconsin
    • Grear, D. A., M. D. Samuel, J. A. Langenberg, and D. Keane. 2006. Demographic patterns and harvest vulnerability of CWD infected white-tailed deer in Wisconsin. Journal of Wildlife Management 70:546-553.
    • (2006) Journal of Wildlife Management , vol.70 , pp. 546-553
    • Grear, D.A.1    Samuel, M.D.2    Langenberg, J.A.3    Keane, D.4
  • 36
    • 2542608460 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Age and transmissible spongiform encephalophathies
    • Heisey, D. M., and D. O. Joly. 2004. Age and transmissible spongiform encephalophathies. Emerging Infectious Diseases 10:1164-1165.
    • (2004) Emerging Infectious Diseases , vol.10 , pp. 1164-1165
    • Heisey, D.M.1    Joly, D.O.2
  • 37
    • 33748527500 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The fitting of general force-of-infection models to wildlife disease prevalence data
    • Heisey, D. M., D. O. Joly, and F. Messier. 2006. The fitting of general force-of-infection models to wildlife disease prevalence data. Ecology 87:2356-2365.
    • (2006) Ecology , vol.87 , pp. 2356-2365
    • Heisey, D.M.1    Joly, D.O.2    Messier, F.3
  • 38
    • 34547395364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ABC's of nest survival: Theory and application from a biostatistical perspective
    • Heisey, D. M., T. L. Shaffer, and G. C. White. 2007. The ABC's of nest survival: theory and application from a biostatistical perspective. Studies in Avian Biology 34:1-21.
    • (2007) Studies in Avian Biology , vol.34 , pp. 1-21
    • Heisey, D.M.1    Shaffer, T.L.2    White, G.C.3
  • 39
    • 33745464275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A twocomponent model for counts of infectious diseases
    • Held, L., M. Hofmann, M. Hohle, and V. Schmid. 2006. A twocomponent model for counts of infectious diseases. Biostatistics 7:422-437.
    • (2006) Biostatistics , vol.7 , pp. 422-437
    • Held, L.1    Hofmann, M.2    Hohle, M.3    Schmid, V.4
  • 40
    • 0004155891 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
    • Hilborn, R., and M. Mangel. 1997. The ecological detective. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
    • (1997) The Ecological Detective
    • Hilborn, R.1    Mangel, M.2
  • 41
    • 39049143215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian collared-dove
    • Hooten, M., and C. K. Wikle. 2008. A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian collared-dove. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15:59-70.
    • (2008) Environmental and Ecological Statistics , vol.15 , pp. 59-70
    • Hooten, M.1    Wikle, C.K.2
  • 42
    • 34547692612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical spatio-temporal matrix models for characterizing invasions
    • Hooten, M. B., C. K. Wikle, R. M. Dorazio, and J. A. Royle. 2007. Hierarchical spatio-temporal matrix models for characterizing invasions. Biometrics 63:558-567.
    • (2007) Biometrics , vol.63 , pp. 558-567
    • Hooten, M.B.1    Wikle, C.K.2    Dorazio, R.M.3    Royle, J.A.4
  • 43
    • 14944339546 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate parametric spatiotemporal models for county level breast cancer survival data
    • Jin, X., and B. P. Carlin. 2005. Multivariate parametric spatiotemporal models for county level breast cancer survival data. Lifetime Data Analysis 11:5-27.
    • (2005) Lifetime Data Analysis , vol.11 , pp. 5-27
    • Jin, X.1    Carlin, B.P.2
  • 47
    • 54049114331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of retropharyngeal lymph node and obex region of the brainstem in detection of chronic wasting disease in whitetailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus)
    • Keane, D. P., D. J. Barr, J. E. Keller, S. M. Hall, J. A. Langenberg, and P. N. Bochsler. 2008. Comparison of retropharyngeal lymph node and obex region of the brainstem in detection of chronic wasting disease in whitetailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation 20:58-60.
    • (2008) Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation , vol.20 , pp. 58-60
    • Keane, D.P.1    Barr, D.J.2    Keller, J.E.3    Hall, S.M.4    Langenberg, J.A.5    Bochsler, P.N.6
  • 49
    • 0000308264 scopus 로고
    • Age-specific incidence and prevalence: A statistical perspective
    • Keiding, N. 1991. Age-specific incidence and prevalence: a statistical perspective. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 154:371-412.
    • (1991) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B , vol.154 , pp. 371-412
    • Keiding, N.1
  • 51
    • 0000991389 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discussion of "Bayesian models for spatially correlated disease and exposure data" by Best et al
    • J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, and A. F. M. Smith, editors Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
    • Kelsall, J. E., and J. C. Wakefield. 1999. Discussion of "Bayesian models for spatially correlated disease and exposure data" by Best et al. Page 151 in J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, and A. F. M. Smith, editors. Bayesian Statistics 6. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
    • (1999) Bayesian Statistics , vol.6 , pp. 151
    • Kelsall, J.E.1    Wakefield, J.C.2
  • 52
    • 0035649641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A shared component model for detecting joint and selective clustering of two diseases
    • Knorr-Held, L., and N. G. Best. 2001. A shared component model for detecting joint and selective clustering of two diseases. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 164:73-85.
    • (2001) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A , vol.164 , pp. 73-85
    • Knorr-Held, L.1    Best, N.G.2
  • 53
    • 0141684911 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hierarchical model for space-time surveillance data on meningococcal disease incidence
    • Knorr-Held, L., and S. Richardson. 2003. A hierarchical model for space-time surveillance data on meningococcal disease incidence. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C 52:169-183.
    • (2003) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C , vol.52 , pp. 169-183
    • Knorr-Held, L.1    Richardson, S.2
  • 54
    • 0036900109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On block updating in Markov random field models for disease mapping
    • Knorr-Held, L., and H. Rue. 2002. On block updating in Markov random field models for disease mapping. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 29:597-614.
    • (2002) Scandinavian Journal of Statistics , vol.29 , pp. 597-614
    • Knorr-Held, L.1    Rue, H.2
  • 55
    • 27744591358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relative vulnerability of chronic wasting disease infected mule deer to vehicle collisions
    • Krumm, C. E., M. M. Conner, and M. W. Miller. 2005. Relative vulnerability of chronic wasting disease infected mule deer to vehicle collisions. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 41:503-511.
    • (2005) Journal of Wildlife Diseases , vol.41 , pp. 503-511
    • Krumm, C.E.1    Conner, M.M.2    Miller, M.W.3
  • 57
    • 0027101175 scopus 로고
    • The problem of pattern and scale in ecology
    • Levin, S. A. 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology 73:1943-1967.
    • (1992) Ecology , vol.73 , pp. 1943-1967
    • Levin, S.A.1
  • 58
    • 0006407254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WinBUGS: A bayesian modeling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility
    • Lunn, D. J., A. Thomas, N. Best, and D. Spiegelhalter. 2000. WinBUGS: a Bayesian modeling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Statistics and Computing 10: 325-337.
    • (2000) Statistics and Computing , vol.10 , pp. 325-337
    • Lunn, D.J.1    Thomas, A.2    Best, N.3    Spiegelhalter, D.4
  • 59
    • 33749618609 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Infectious prions in the saliva and blood of deer with chronic wasting disease
    • Mathiason, C. K., et al. 2006. Infectious prions in the saliva and blood of deer with chronic wasting disease. Science 314:133-136.
    • (2006) Science , vol.314 , pp. 133-136
    • Mathiason, C.K.1
  • 60
    • 13944253558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging mule deer: Spatial, temporal, and demographic influences on observed prevalence patterns
    • Miller, M. W., and M. M. Conner. 2005. Epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging mule deer: spatial, temporal, and demographic influences on observed prevalence patterns. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 41:275-290.
    • (2005) Journal of Wildlife Diseases , vol.41 , pp. 275-290
    • Miller, M.W.1    Conner, M.M.2
  • 61
    • 33845475680 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer
    • Miller, M. W., N. T. Hobbs, and S. J. Tavener. 2006. Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer. Ecological Applications 16:2208-2214.
    • (2006) Ecological Applications , vol.16 , pp. 2208-2214
    • Miller, M.W.1    Hobbs, N.T.2    Tavener, S.J.3
  • 64
    • 0000020266 scopus 로고
    • Home-range formation and dispersal of deer in northeastern Minnesota
    • Nelson, M. E., and L. D. Mech. 1984. Home-range formation and dispersal of deer in northeastern Minnesota. Journal of Mammalogy 65:567-575.
    • (1984) Journal of Mammalogy , vol.65 , pp. 567-575
    • Nelson, M.E.1    Mech, L.D.2
  • 65
    • 68149129688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin
    • Osnas, E. E., D. M. Heisey, R. E. Rolley, and M. D. Samuel. 2009. Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin. Ecological Applications 19:1311-1322.
    • (2009) Ecological Applications , vol.19 , pp. 1311-1322
    • Osnas, E.E.1    Heisey, D.M.2    Rolley, R.E.3    Samuel, M.D.4
  • 66
    • 0032863115 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From individuals to population densities: Searching for the intermediate scale of nontrivial determinism
    • Pascual, M., and S. A. Levin. 1999. From individuals to population densities: searching for the intermediate scale of nontrivial determinism. Ecology 80:1867-1875.
    • (1999) Ecology , vol.80 , pp. 1867-1875
    • Pascual, M.1    Levin, S.A.2
  • 67
    • 56849113946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Metapopulation dynamics override local limits on long-term parasite persistence
    • Ram, K., E. L. Preisser, D. S. Gruner, and D. R. Strong. 2008. Metapopulation dynamics override local limits on long-term parasite persistence. Ecology 98:3290-3297.
    • (2008) Ecology , vol.98 , pp. 3290-3297
    • Ram, K.1    Preisser, E.L.2    Gruner, D.S.3    Strong, D.R.4
  • 68
    • 0028003568 scopus 로고
    • Inferring process from pattern: Trophic level abundances and imbedded interactions
    • Sarnelle, O. 1994. Inferring process from pattern: trophic level abundances and imbedded interactions. Ecology 75:1835-1841.
    • (1994) Ecology , vol.75 , pp. 1835-1841
    • Sarnelle, O.1
  • 69
    • 16544389621 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Paternity assignment for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus): Mating across age classes and multiple paternity
    • Sorin, A. B. 2004. Paternity assignment for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus): mating across age classes and multiple paternity. Journal of Mammalogy 85:356-362.
    • (2004) Journal of Mammalogy , vol.85 , pp. 356-362
    • Sorin, A.B.1
  • 72
    • 2942576309 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of experimental epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease
    • Streftaris, G., and G. J. Gibson. 2004. Bayesian analysis of experimental epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 271:1111-1117.
    • (2004) Proceedings of the Royal Society B , vol.271 , pp. 1111-1117
    • Streftaris, G.1    Gibson, G.J.2
  • 73
    • 33646717660 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inverse problem theory and methods for model parameter estimation
    • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
    • Taratola, A. 2005. Inverse problem theory and methods for model parameter estimation. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
    • (2005) Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
    • Taratola, A.1
  • 75
    • 34147190307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disease mapping and spatial regression with count data
    • Wakefield, J. 2007. Disease mapping and spatial regression with count data. Biostatistics 8:158-1.83.
    • (2007) Biostatistics , vol.8 , pp. 158-183
    • Wakefield, J.1
  • 76
    • 0041985115 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical Bayesian methods for predicting the spread of ecological processes
    • Wikle, C. K. 2003. Hierarchical Bayesian methods for predicting the spread of ecological processes. Ecology 84: 1382-1394.
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , pp. 1382-1394
    • Wikle, C.K.1
  • 77
  • 79
    • 0018871326 scopus 로고
    • Chronic wasting disease of captive mule deer: A spongiform encephalopathy
    • Williams, E. S., and S. Young. 1980. Chronic wasting disease of captive mule deer: a spongiform encephalopathy. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 16:89-98.
    • (1980) Journal of Wildlife Diseases , vol.16 , pp. 89-98
    • Williams, E.S.1    Young, S.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.