Forest restoration in a mixed-ownership landscape under climate change

Ecological Applications

Volumn 20, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 327-346

  Ravenscroft, Catherine ^a,c   Scheller, Robert M ^a,d   Mladenoff, David J ^a   White, Mark A ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b THE NATURE CONSERVANCY   (United States)

^c SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d Conservation Biology Institute ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Desired conditions; Forest ecosystem model; Forest management; Historical variability; LANDIS II; Minnesota (USA); Range of natural variability (RNV); Restoration; Species migration

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CONIFEROUS FOREST; CULTURAL LANDSCAPE; DOMINANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; FOREST MANAGEMENT; HOMOGENEITY; LANDOWNERSHIP; LANDSCAPE PLANNING; MIGRATORY SPECIES; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRIMARY PRODUCTION; RESTORATION ECOLOGY; SHRUB; SPECIES DIVERSITY; VARIANCE ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; TREE; UNITED STATES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; TREES; UNITED STATES;

MINNESOTA; UNITED STATES;

ABIES BALSAMEA; ACER; BETULA PAPYRIFERA; PICEA GLAUCA; PICEA MARIANA; PIMA; PINUS BANKSIANA; PINUS RESINOSA;

EID: 77950125469     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/08-1698.1     Document Type: Article

References (109)

1. Aber, J., N. Christensen, I. Fernandez, J. Franklin, L. Hidinger, M. Hunter, J. MacMahon, D. Mladenoff, J. Pastor, D. Perry, R. Slangen, and H. van Miegroet. 2000. Applying ecological principles to management of the U.S. National Forests. Issues in Ecology 6. Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C., USA.
2. Aber, J. D., and C. A. Federer. 1992. A generalized, lumped-parameter model of photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and net primary production in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Oecologia 92: 463-474.
3. Abrams, M. D. 1998. The red maple paradox. BioScience 48: 355-364.
4. Alien, C. D., and D. D. Breshears. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 95: 14839-14842.
5. Bachelet, D., R. P. Neilson, J. M. Lenihan, and R. J. Drapek. 2001. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States. Ecosystems 4: 164-185.
6. Baker, F. S. 1949. A revised tolerance table. Journal of Forestry 47: 179-181.
7. Baker, W. L. 1992. The landscape ecology of large disturbances in the design and management of nature reserves. Landscape Ecology 7: 181-194.
8. Baker, W. L. 1994. Restoration of landscape structure altered by fire suppression. Conservation Biology 8: 763-769.
9. Bale, J. S., et al. 2002. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Global Change Biology 8: 1-16.
10. Bergeron, Y., and B. Harvey. 1997. Basing silviculture on natural ecosystem dynamics: an approach applied to the southern boreal mixedwood forest of Quebec. Forest Ecology and Management 92: 235-242.
11. Blinn, C. R., and E. R. Buckner. 1989. Normal foliar nutrient levels in North American forest trees: a summary. Station Bulletin 590-1989. Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
12. Bolstad, P. V., K. J. Davis, J. Miartin, B. D. Cook, and W. Wang. 2004. Component and whole-system respiration fluxes in northern deciduous forests. Tree Physiology 24: 493-504.
13. Bolster, K. L. 1996. Determination of carbon fraction and nitrogen concentration in tree foliage by near infrared reflectance: a comparison of statistical methods. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 26: 590-600.
14. Bradshaw, W. E., and C. M. Holzapfel. 2006. Evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Science 312: 1477-1478.
15. Broennimann, O., U. A. Treier, H. Müller-Schärer, W. Thuiller, A. T. Peterson, and A. Guisan. 2007. Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion. Ecology Letters 10: 701-709.
16. Chapin, F. S., K. Danell, T. Elmqvist, C. Folke, and N. Fresco. 2007. Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests. Ambio 36: 528-533.
17. Clark, J. S., et al. 1998. Reid's paradox of rapid plant migration. Bioscience 48: 13-24.
18. Collingham, Y. C., and B. Huntley. 2000. Impacts of habitat fragmentation and patch size upon migration rates. Ecological Applications 10: 131-144.
19. Dale, V. H., et al. 2001. Climate change and forest disturbances. BioScience 51: 723-734.
20. Daly, C., R. P. Neilson, and D. L. Phillips. 1994. A statistical- topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology 33: 140-158.
21. Davis, M. B. 1989. Lags in vegetation response to greenhouse warming. Climatic Change 15: 75-82.
22. Davis, M. B., and R. G. Shaw. 2001. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292: 673-679.
23. Fownes, J. H. 1985. Water use and primary production of Wisconsin hardwood forests. Dissertation. University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
24. Franklin, J. F., et al. 1991. Effects of global climate change on forests in northwestern North America. Northwest Environmental Journal 7: 233-254.
25. Frelich, L. 1999. Range of natural variability in forest structure for the Northern Superior Uplands. Minnesota Forest Resources Council, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
26. Frelich, L. 2000. Natural Range of Variability estimates for forest vegetation growth stages of Minnesota's Drift and Lake Plains. Minnesota Forest Resources Council, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
27. Friedman, S. K., and P. B. Reich, 2005. Regional legacies of logging: departure from presettlement forest conditions in northern Minnesota. Ecological Applications 15: 726-744.
28. Friedman, S. K., P. B. Reich, and L. E. Frelich. 2001. Multiple scale composition and spatial distribution patterns of the north-eastern Minnesota presettlement forest. Journal of Ecology 89: 538-554.
29. Green, D. S. 1998. Interrelation of leaf structure and function among deciduous broad-leaved and evergreen needle-leaved trees in southern Wisconsin. Dissertation. University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
30. Green, D. S., J. E. Erickson, and E. L. Kruger. 2003. Foliar morphology and canopy nitrogen as predictors of light-use efficiency in terrestrial vegetation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 115: 165-173.
31. Hall, F. G., D. B. Botkin, D. E. Strebel, K. D. Woods, and S. J. Goetz. 1991. Large-scale patterns of forest succession as determined by remote sensing. Ecology 72: 628-640.
32. Hampe, A. 2004. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography 13: 469-471.
33. Hampe, A., and R. J. Petit. 2005. Conserving biodiversity under climate change: The rear edge matters. Ecology Letters 8: 461-467.
34. Hannah, L., G. F. Midgley, and D. Millar. 2002. Climate change-integrated conservation strategies. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11: 485-495.
35. He, H. S., D. J. Mladenoff, and J. Boeder. 1999a. An objectoriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species. Ecological Modelling 119: 1-19.
36. He, H. S., D. J. Mladenoff, and T. R. Crow. 1999b. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming. Ecological Modelling 114: 213-233.
37. He, H. S., D. J. Mladenoff, V. C. Radeloff, and T. R. Crow. 1998. Integration of GIS data and classified satellite imagery for regional forest assessment. Ecological Applications 8: 1072-1083.
38. Heinselman, M. L. 1973. Fire in the virgin forests of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Minnesota. Quaternary Research 3: 329-382.
39. Heinselman, M. L. 1981. Fire and succession in the conifer forests of northern North America. Pages 374-406 in D. C. West, H. H. Shugart, and D. B. Botkin, editors. Forest succession: concepts and application. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
40. Heinselman, M. L. 1996. The Boundary Waters Wilderness Ecosystem. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
41. Hobbs, R. J., et al. 2006. Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 1-7.
42. Ibáñez, I., J. S. Clark, S. LaDeau, and J. Hille Ris Lambers. 2007. Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change. Ecological Monographs 77: 163-177.
43. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC secretariat, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
44. Iverson, L. R., and A. M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68: 465-485.
45. Iverson, L. R., and A. M. Prasad. 2001, Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems 4: 186-199.
46. Jenkins, J. C., D. W. Kicklighter, and J. D. Aber. 2000. Regional impacts of climate change and elevated carbon dioxide on forest productivity. Pages 383-424 in R. A. Mlckler, R. A. Birdsey, and J. L. Hom, editors. Responses of northern forests to environmental change. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
47. Jogiste, K., T. Kuuluvainen, and A. Kangur. 2007. Disturbances at multiple scales as the basis of forest ecosystem restoration and management. Forest Ecology and Management 250: 1-2.
48. Johnson, D. W., and P. S. Curtis. 2001. Effects of forest management on soil C and N storage: meta analysis. Forest Ecology and Management 140: 227-238.
49. Jump, A. S., and J. Penuelas. 2005. Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecology Letters 8: 1010-1020.
50. Jurik, T. W. 1986. Temporal and spatial patterns of specific leaf weight in successional northern hardwood tree species. American Journal of Botany 73: 1083-1092.
51. Kuuluvainen, T. 2002. Disturbance dynamics in boreal forests: defining the ecological basis of restoration and management of biodiversity. Silva Fennica 36: 5-11.
52. Landres, P. B., P. Morgan, and F. J. Swanson. 1999. Overview of the use of natural variability concepts in managing ecological systems. Ecological Applications 9: 1179-1188.
53. Lee, T. D., P. B. Reich, and P. V. Bolstad. 2005. Acclimation of leaf respiration to temperature is rapid and related to specific leaf area, soluble sugars and leaf nitrogen across three temperate deciduous tree species. Functional Ecology 19: 640-647.
54. Little, E. L. 1971. Atlas of United States trees. Volume 1, conifers and important hardwoods. U.S. Department of Agriculture Miscellaneous Publication 1146.
55. Loehle, C. 2000. Forest ecotone response to climate change: sensitivity to temperature response functional forms. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 30: 1632-1645.
56. Ludwig, D., B. Walker, and C. S. Holling. 1997. Sustainability, stability, and resilience. Conservation Ecology 1: 1-26.
57. Malanson, G. P., and D. M. Cairns. 1997. Effects of dispersal, population delays, and forest fragmentation on tree migration rates. Plant Ecology 131: 67-79.
58. Martin, M. E., and J. D. Aber. 1997. High spectral resolution remote sensing of forest canopy lignin, nitrogen, and ecosystem processes. Ecological Applications 7: 431-443.
59. McCune, B., and J. B. Grace. 2002. Analysis of ecological communities. MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach, Oregon, USA.
60. McCune, B., and M. J. Mefford. 1999. PC-ORD: multivariate analysis of ecological data. Version 5.0. MjM Software, Gleneden Beach, Oregon, USA.
61. McLachlan, J. S., J. S. Clark, and P. S. Manos. 2005. Molecular indicators of tree migration capacity under rapid climate change. Ecology 86: 2088-2098.
62. Mehta, S., L. E. Frelich, M. T. Jones, and J. Manolis. 2004. Examining the effects of alternative management strategies on landscape-scale forest patterns in northeastern Minnesota using LANDIS. Ecological Modelling 180: 73-87.
63. MFRC. 2003. Recommended desired outcomes, goals and strategies, northeast landscape region. Minnesota Forest Resources Council, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
64. Millar, C. I., N. L. Stephenson, and S. L. Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17: 2145-2151.
65. Millar, C. I., and W. B. Woolfenden. 1999. The role of climate change in interpreting historical variability. Ecological Applications 9: 1207-1216.
66. Minnesota DNR. 2003. Field guide to the native plant communities of Minnesota: The Laurentian Mixed Forest Province. Ecological Land Classification Program, Minnesota County Biological Survey, and Natural Heritage and Nongame Research Program. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
67. Mladenoff, D. J., and H. S. He. 1999. Design, behavior and applications of LANDIS, an object-oriented model of forest landscape disturbance and succession. Pages 124-162 in D. J. Mladenoff and W. L. Baker, editors. Advances in spatial modeling of forest landscape change: approaches and applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
68. Mladenoff, D. J., G. E. Host, J. Boeder, and T. R. Crow. 1996. LANDIS: a spatial model of forest landscape disturbance, succession, and management. Pages 175-180 in M. F. Goodchild, L. T. Steyaert, B. O. Parks, C. Johnston, and S. Glendining, editors. GIS and environmental modeling: progress and research issues. GIS World Books, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
69. Moorcroft, P. R., S. W. Pacala, and M. A. Lewis. 2006. Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change. Journal of Theoretical Biology 241: 601-616.
70. Murphy, H. T., and J. Lovett-Doust. 2007. Accounting for regional niche variation in habitat suitability models. Oikos 116: 99-110.
71. Neilson, R. P. 1993. Transient ecotone response to climatic change: some conceptual and modeling approaches. Ecological Applications 3: 385-395.
72. Neilson, R. P. 1995. A model for predicting continental-scale vegetation distribution and water balance. Ecological Applications 5: 362-385.
73. Noble, I. R. 1993. A model of the responses of ecotones to climate change. Ecological Applications 3: 396-403.
74. Noss, R. F. 2001. Beyond Kyoto: forest management in a time of rapid climate change. Conservation Biology 15: 578-590.
75. Overpeck, J. T., D. Rind, and R. Goldberg. 1990. Climate-induced change in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343: 51-53.
76. 2-induced climate change. Nature 334: 55-58.
77. Pitelka, L. F. 1997. Plant migration and climate change. American Scientist 85: 464-473.
78. Post, E., and C. Pederson. 2008. Opposing plant community responses to warming with and without herbivores. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 105: 12353-12358.
79. Prasad, A. M., and L. R. Iverson. 2003. Little's range and FIA importance value database for 135 eastern U.S. tree species. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio, USA. (http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/ delaware/4153/global/littlefia/index.html)
80. Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson, and A. Liaw. 2006. Newer classification and regression tree techniques: bagging and random forests for ecological prediction. Ecosystems 9: 181-199.
81. Puettmann, K., and A. Ek. 1999. Status and trends of silvicultural practices in Minnesota. Northern Journal of Applied Forestry 16: 203-210.
82. Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazenave, J. A. Church, J. E. Hansen, R. F. Keeling, D. E. Parker, and R. C. J. Somerville. 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316: 709-709
83. Rastetter, E. B. 1996. Validating models of ecosystem response to global change. BioScience 46: 190-198.
84. Reich, P. B., B. D. Kloeppel, D. S. Ellsworth, and M. B. Walters. 1995. Different photosynthesis-nitrogen relations in deciduous hardwood and evergreen coniferous tree species. Oecologia 104: 24-30.
85. Royer, D. L., P. Wild, D. A. Janesko, E. A. Kowalski, and D. L. Dilcher. 2005. Correlations of digital leaf physiognomy to climatic and ecological variables: potential proxies for the fossil record. American Journal of Botany 92: 1141-1151.
86. Saxe, H., M. G. R. Cannell, B. Johnsen, M. G. Ryan, and G. Vourlitis. 2001. Tree and forest functioning in response to global warming. New Phytologist 149: 369-399.
87. Saxton, K., W. Rawls, J. Romberger, and R. Papendick. 1986. Estimating generalized soil-water characteristics from, texture. Soil Science Society of America Journal 50: 1031-1036.
88. Scheller, R. M., J. Domingo, B. Sturtevant, J. Williams, A. Rudy, E. Gustafson, and D. Mladenoff. 2007. Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecological Modelling 201: 409-419.
89. Scheller, R. M., and D. J. Mladenoff. 2004. A forest growth and biomass module for a landscape simulation model, LANDIS: design, validation, and application. Ecological Modelling 180: 211-229.
90. Scheller, R. M., and D. J. Mladenoff. 2005. A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Global Change Biology 11: 307-321.
91. Scheller, R. M., and D. J. Mladenoff. 2008. Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA. Climate Research 36: 191-202.
92. Scheller, R. M., D. J. Mladenoff, T. R. Crow, and T. A. Sickley. 2005. Simulating the effects of fire reintroduction versus continued fire absence on forest composition and landscape structure in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, northern Minnesota, USA. Ecosystems 8: 396-411.
93. Schulte, L. A., D. J. Mladenoff, T. R. Crow, L. C. Merrick, and D. T. Cleland. 2007. Homogenization of northern U.S. Great Lakes forests due to land use. Landscape Ecology 22: 1089-1103.
94. Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, and R. J. O'Connor. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87: 1611-1615.
95. Smith, M. L., and M. E. Martin. 2001. A plot-based method for rapid estimation of forest canopy chemistry. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 31: 549-555.
96. Spittlehouse, D. L. 2005. Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management. Forestry Chronicle 81: 91-95.
97. Spittlehouse, D. L., and R. B. Stewart. 2003. Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 4(1): 7-17.
98. STATSGO. 1994. State soil geographic database. Data use information. Report number 1492. U.S. Department of Agriculture National Cartography and GIS Center, Fort Worth, Texas, USA.
99. Swetnam, T. W., C. D. Allen, and J. L. Betancourt. 1999. Applied historical ecology: using the past to manage for the future. Ecological Applications 9: 1189-1206.
100. Sykes, M. T., and I. C. Prentice. 1996. Climate change, tree species distributions and forest dynamics: a case study in the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone of northern Europe. Climatic Change 34: 1573-11480
101. Ward, B. C., D. J. Mladenoff, and R. M. Scheller. 2004. Simulating landscape-level effects of constraints to public forest regeneration harvests due to adjacent residential development in northern Wisconsin. Forest Science 51: 616-632.
102. White, M. A. 2001a. Growth stage summaries for ecosystems of the Northern Superior Uplands. Minnesota Forest Resources Council, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
103. White, M. A. 2001b. Growth stage summaries for ecosystems of the Drift and Lake Plains section. Minnesota Forest Resources Council, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
104. White, M. A., and G. E. Host. 2000. Mapping range of natural variation in ecosystems classes for the Northern Superior Uplands: draft map and analytical methods. NRRI Technical Report NRRI/TR-2000/39. Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota, Duluth, Minnesota, USA.
105. White, M. A., and G. E. Host. 2008. Forest disturbance frequency and patch structure from pre-European settlement to present in the Mixed Forest Province of Minnesota, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38: 2212-2226.
106. Williams, J. W., and S. T. Jackson. 2007. Novel climates, noanalog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 475-482.
107. With, K. A. 2004. Assessing the risk of invasive spread in fragmented landscapes. Risk Analysis 24: 803-815.
108. Wolter, P. T., D. J. Mladenoff, G. E. Host, and T. R. Crow. 1995. Improved forest classification in the Northern Lake States using multi-temporal Landsat imagery. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 61: 1129-1143.
109. Wolter, P. T., and M. A. White. 2002. Recent forest cover type transitions and landscape structural changes in northeast Minnesota, USA. Landscape Ecology 17: 133-155.