메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 78, Issue SUPPL. 1, 2009, Pages

Improved ocean prediction skill and reduced uncertainty in the coastal region from multi-model super-ensembles

(34)  Rixen, Michel a   Book, Jeffrey W b   Carta, Alessandro a   Grandi, Vittorio a   Gualdesi, Lavinio a   Stoner, Richard a   Ranelli, Peter a   Cavanna, Andrea a   Zanasca, Pietro a   Baldasserini, Gisella a   Trangeled, Alex a   Lewis, Craig a   Trees, Chuck a   Grasso, Rafaelle a   Giannechini, Simone a   Fabiani, Alessio a   Merani, Diego a   Berni, Alessandro a   Leonard, Michel a   Martin, Paul b   more..


Author keywords

Coastal environments; Kalman Filter; Multi model super ensembles; Ocean prediction skill; Particle Filter; Uncertainties

Indexed keywords

COASTAL ZONES; ERROR STATISTICS; FISHERIES; FORECASTING; KALMAN FILTERS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; NUMERICAL METHODS; OCEANOGRAPHY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 77649239247     PISSN: 09247963     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.014     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (29)

References (52)
  • 2
    • 12944265059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sea surface height predictions from the global navy coastal ocean model during 1998-2001
    • Barron, C.N., Kara, A.B., Hurlburt, H.E., Rowley, C., Smedstad, L.F., 2004. Sea surface height predictions from the global navy coastal ocean model during 1998-2001. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 21, 1876-1893.
    • (2004) J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , vol.21 , pp. 1876-1893
    • Barron, C.N.1    Kara, A.B.2    Hurlburt, H.E.3    Rowley, C.4    Smedstad, L.F.5
  • 3
    • 77649238903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eddies and filaments of theWestern Adriatic Current near Cape Gargano: analysis and prediction
    • (this issue)
    • Burrage, D.M., Book, J.W., Martin, P.J., 2009. Eddies and filaments of theWestern Adriatic Current near Cape Gargano: analysis and prediction. J. Mar. Syst. 78, S205-S226 (this issue).
    • (2009) J. Mar. Syst. , vol.78
    • Burrage, D.M.1    Book, J.W.2    Martin, P.J.3
  • 4
    • 39449131897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment
    • Chiggiato, J., Oddo, P., 2008. Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment. Ocean Sci. 4, 61-71.
    • (2008) Ocean Sci , vol.4 , pp. 61-71
    • Chiggiato, J.1    Oddo, P.2
  • 5
    • 0037195652 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 3D finite-element model of the Adriatic tides
    • Cushman-Roisin, B., Naimie, C.E., 2002. A 3D finite-element model of the Adriatic tides. J. Mar. Syst. 37, 279-297.
    • (2002) J. Mar. Syst. , vol.37 , pp. 279-297
    • Cushman-Roisin, B.1    Naimie, C.E.2
  • 7
    • 0000991256 scopus 로고
    • On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation
    • Dee, D., 1995. On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon. Weather Rev. 123, 1128-1145.
    • (1995) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.123 , pp. 1128-1145
    • Dee, D.1
  • 8
    • 0003270424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A multivariate reduced order optimal interpolation method and its application to the Mediterranean basin-scale circulation
    • Pinardi, N., Woods, J.D. (Eds.), Spinger-Verlag
    • De Mey, P., Benkiran, M., 2002. A multivariate reduced order optimal interpolation method and its application to the Mediterranean basin-scale circulation. In: Pinardi, N., Woods, J.D. (Eds.), Ocean Forecasting: conceptual basis and applications. Spinger-Verlag, pp. 281-306.
    • (2002) Ocean Forecasting: conceptual basis and applications , pp. 281-306
    • De Mey, P.1    Benkiran, M.2
  • 10
    • 0141788203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bulk parameterisations of air-sea fluxes: updates and verification for the COARE algorithm
    • Fairall, C.W., Bradley, E.F., Hare, J.E., Grachev, A.A., Edson, J.B., 2003. Bulk parameterisations of air-sea fluxes: updates and verification for the COARE algorithm. J. Climate 16, 571-591.
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , pp. 571-591
    • Fairall, C.W.1    Bradley, E.F.2    Hare, J.E.3    Grachev, A.A.4    Edson, J.B.5
  • 11
    • 0016465070 scopus 로고
    • A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf
    • Flather, R.A., 1976. A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf. Mem. Soc. R. Sci. Liege 6 (10), 141-164.
    • (1976) Mem. Soc. R. Sci. Liege , vol.6 , Issue.10 , pp. 141-164
    • Flather, R.A.1
  • 14
    • 85024429815 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems
    • Kalman, R.E., 1960. A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Trans. ASME - J. Basic Eng. 82, 35-45.
    • (1960) Trans. ASME - J. Basic Eng. , vol.82 , pp. 35-45
    • Kalman, R.E.1
  • 15
    • 0033520451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble
    • doi:10.1126/science.285.5433.1548
    • Krishnamurti, T., Kishtawal, C., LaRow, T.E., Bachiochi, D.R., Zhang, Z., Williford, C.E., Gadgil, S., Surendran, S.S., 1999. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science 285 (5433), 1548-1550. doi:10.1126/science.285.5433.1548.
    • (1999) Science , vol.285 , Issue.5433 , pp. 1548-1550
    • Krishnamurti, T.1    Kishtawal, C.2    LaRow, T.E.3    Bachiochi, D.R.4    Zhang, Z.5    Williford, C.E.6    Gadgil, S.7    Surendran, S.S.8
  • 16
    • 0028591570 scopus 로고
    • Oceanic vertical mixing: a review and a model with nonlocal boundary layer parameterisation
    • Large,W.G., McWilliams, J.C., Doney, S.C., 1994. Oceanic vertical mixing: a review and a model with nonlocal boundary layer parameterisation. Rev. Geophys. 32, 363-403.
    • (1994) Rev. Geophys. , vol.32 , pp. 363-403
    • Large, W.G.1    McWilliams, J.C.2    Doney, S.C.3
  • 17
    • 0032710658 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Data assimilation via error subspace statistical estimation. Part II: Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front simulations and ESSE validation
    • Lermusiaux, P.F.J., 1999. Data assimilation via error subspace statistical estimation. Part II: Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front simulations and ESSE validation. Mon. Weather Rev. 127 (7), 1408-1432.
    • (1999) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.127 , Issue.7 , pp. 1408-1432
    • Lermusiaux, P.F.J.1
  • 20
    • 36148985393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-model fusion and error parameter estimation
    • doi:10.1256/qj.05.99
    • Logutov, O.G., Robinson, A.R., 2005. Multi-model fusion and error parameter estimation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131 (613), 3397-3408. doi:10.1256/qj.05.99.
    • (2005) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.131 , Issue.613 , pp. 3397-3408
    • Logutov, O.G.1    Robinson, A.R.2
  • 21
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E.N., 1963. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 23
    • 0032226431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Antidiffusive velocities for multipass donor cell
    • Margolin, L., Smolarkiewicz, P.K., 1998. Antidiffusive velocities for multipass donor cell. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 20, 907-929.
    • (1998) SIAM J. Sci. Comput. , vol.20 , pp. 907-929
    • Margolin, L.1    Smolarkiewicz, P.K.2
  • 24
    • 34249801793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of the northern Adriatic circulation during winter 2003
    • doi:10.1029/2006JC003511
    • Martin, P.J., Book, J.W., and Doyle, J.D., 2006. Simulation of the northern Adriatic circulation during winter 2003, J. Geophys. Res. 111, C03S12. doi:10.1029/2006JC003511.
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res , vol.111
    • Martin, P.J.1    Book, J.W.2    Doyle, J.D.3
  • 25
    • 0020330926 scopus 로고
    • Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems
    • Mellor, G.L., Yamada, T., 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 20, 851-875.
    • (1982) Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. , vol.20 , pp. 851-875
    • Mellor, G.L.1    Yamada, T.2
  • 26
    • 28744455045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A numerical study of the interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea (2000-2002)
    • Oddo, P., Pinardi, N., Zavatarelli, M., 2005. A numerical study of the interannual variability of the Adriatic Sea (2000-2002). Sci. Total Environ. 353, 39-56.
    • (2005) Sci. Total Environ. , vol.353 , pp. 39-56
    • Oddo, P.1    Pinardi, N.2    Zavatarelli, M.3
  • 28
    • 0019374417 scopus 로고
    • Parameterization of vertical mixing in numerical models of tropical oceans
    • Pacanowski, R.C., Philander, S.G.H., 1981. Parameterization of vertical mixing in numerical models of tropical oceans. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 11, 1443-1451.
    • (1981) J. Phys. Oceanogr. , vol.11 , pp. 1443-1451
    • Pacanowski, R.C.1    Philander, S.G.H.2
  • 29
    • 0034290351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The BARNY Sentinel Trawl-Resistant ADCP Bottom Mount: design, testing, and application
    • Perkins, H., de Strobel, F., Gualdesi, L., 2000. The BARNY Sentinel Trawl-Resistant ADCP Bottom Mount: design, testing, and application. IEEE J. Oceanic Eng. 25, 430-436.
    • (2000) IEEE J. Oceanic Eng , vol.25 , pp. 430-436
    • Perkins, H.1    de Strobel, F.2    Gualdesi, L.3
  • 30
    • 0003881492 scopus 로고
    • Note on the flow rates of the Adriatic rivers
    • Talassografico, Trieste, Italy
    • Raicich, R., 1994. Note on the flow rates of the Adriatic rivers. Tech. Rep. RF 02/94, 8 pp., CNR. Ist. Sper. Talassografico, Trieste, Italy.
    • (1994) Tech. Rep. RF 02/94, CNR. Ist. Sper , pp. 8
    • Raicich, R.1
  • 31
    • 0036646424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles
    • Rajagopalan, B., Lall, U., Zebiak, S.E., 2002. Categorical climate forecasts through regularization and optimal combination of multiple GCM ensembles. Mon.Weather Rev. 130, 1792-1811.
    • (2002) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1792-1811
    • Rajagopalan, B.1    Lall, U.2    Zebiak, S.E.3
  • 32
    • 24344477014 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational prediction of acoustic properties in the ocean using multi-model statistics
    • doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.02.002
    • Rixen, M., Ferreira-Coelho, E., 2006. Operational prediction of acoustic properties in the ocean using multi-model statistics. Ocean Model. 11 (3-4), 428-440. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.02.002.
    • (2006) Ocean Model , vol.11 , Issue.3-4 , pp. 428-440
    • Rixen, M.1    Ferreira-Coelho, E.2
  • 33
    • 33846906152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational surface drift prediction using linear and non-linear hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric and ocean models
    • Rixen, M., Ferreira-Coelho, E., 2007. Operational surface drift prediction using linear and non-linear hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric and ocean models. J. Mar. Syst. 65, 105-121.
    • (2007) J. Mar. Syst. , vol.65 , pp. 105-121
    • Rixen, M.1    Ferreira-Coelho, E.2
  • 34
    • 36148984989 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic using hyper-ensembles statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: uncertainties and probability distribution areas
    • Rixen, M., Ferreira Coelho, E., Signell, R., 2008. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic using hyper-ensembles statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: uncertainties and probability distribution areas. J. Mar. Syst. 69, 86-98.
    • (2008) J. Mar. Syst. , vol.69 , pp. 86-98
    • Rixen, M.1    Ferreira Coelho, E.2    Signell, R.3
  • 35
    • 74349083792 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Superensemble forecasts and resulting acoustic sensitivities in shallow waters
    • (this issue)
    • Rixen, M., Le Gac, J.C., Hermand, J.P., Peggion, G., Ferreira-Coelho, E., 2009. Superensemble forecasts and resulting acoustic sensitivities in shallow waters. J. Mar. Syst. 78, S290-S305 (this issue).
    • (2009) J. Mar. Syst. , vol.78
    • Rixen, M.1    Le Gac, J.C.2    Hermand, J.P.3    Peggion, G.4    Ferreira-Coelho, E.5
  • 36
    • 0001148415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Data assimilation
    • Brink, K.H., Robinson, A.R. (Eds.), John Wiley & Sons
    • Robinson, A.R., Lermusiaux, P.J.F., Sloan, N.Q., 1998. Data assimilation. In: Brink, K.H., Robinson, A.R. (Eds.), The Sea, vol. 10. John Wiley & Sons, pp. 541-594.
    • (1998) The Sea , vol.10 , pp. 541-594
    • Robinson, A.R.1    Lermusiaux, P.J.F.2    Sloan, N.Q.3
  • 38
    • 35548966746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?
    • doi:10.1126/science.1144735
    • Roe, G.H., Baker, B.M., 2007. Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable? Science 318 (5850), 629. doi:10.1126/science.1144735.
    • (2007) Science , vol.318 , Issue.5850 , pp. 629
    • Roe, G.H.1    Baker, B.M.2
  • 39
    • 0032443210 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quasi-monotone advection schemes based on explicit locally adaptive dissipation
    • Shchepetkin, A., McWilliams, J.C., 1998. Quasi-monotone advection schemes based on explicit locally adaptive dissipation. Mon. Weather Rev. 126, 1541-1580.
    • (1998) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 1541-1580
    • Shchepetkin, A.1    McWilliams, J.C.2
  • 40
    • 0141845681 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method for computing horizontal pressuregradient force in an oceanic model with a non-aligned vertical coordinate
    • doi:10.1029/2001JC001047
    • Shchepetkin, A.F., McWilliams, J.C., 2003. A method for computing horizontal pressuregradient force in an oceanic model with a non-aligned vertical coordinate. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (C3), 3090. doi:10.1029/2001JC001047.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res , vol.108 , Issue.C3 , pp. 3090
    • Shchepetkin, A.F.1    McWilliams, J.C.2
  • 41
    • 14544301443 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The regional ocean modelling system: a splitexplicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model
    • Shchepetkin, A.F., McWilliams, J.C., 2005. The regional ocean modelling system: a splitexplicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Model. 9, 347-404.
    • (2005) Ocean Model , vol.9 , pp. 347-404
    • Shchepetkin, A.F.1    McWilliams, J.C.2
  • 42
    • 1642457179 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: 1.Deterministic forecasting
    • doi:10.1029/2001JD001510
    • Shin, D., Krishnamurti, T., 2003a. Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: 1. Deterministic forecasting. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (8), 8383. doi:10.1029/2001JD001510.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.108 , Issue.8 , pp. 8383
    • Shin, D.1    Krishnamurti, T.2
  • 43
    • 0344129322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: 2. Probabilistic forecasting
    • doi:10.1029/2001JD001511
    • Shin, D., Krishnamurti, T., 2003b. Short- to medium-range superensemble precipitation forecasts using satellite products: 2. Probabilistic forecasting. J. Geophys. Res. 108 (8), 8384. doi:10.1029/2001JD001511.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.108 , Issue.8 , pp. 8384
    • Shin, D.1    Krishnamurti, T.2
  • 44
    • 0025156488 scopus 로고
    • Regional primitive equation studies of the Gulf Stream meander and ring formation region
    • Spall, M.A., Robinson, A.R., 1990. Regional primitive equation studies of the Gulf Stream meander and ring formation region. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 20 (7), 985-1016.
    • (1990) J. Phys. Oceanogr. , vol.20 , Issue.7 , pp. 985-1016
    • Spall, M.A.1    Robinson, A.R.2
  • 46
    • 0034962651 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in single diagram
    • Taylor, K.E., 2001. Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in single diagram. J. Geophys. Res. 106 (D7), 7183-7192.
    • (2001) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.106 , Issue.D7 , pp. 7183-7192
    • Taylor, K.E.1
  • 47
    • 38649085049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A high resolution free surface model of the Mediterranean Sea
    • Tonani, M., Pinardi, N., Dobricic, S., Pujol, I., Fratianni, C., 2008. A high resolution free surface model of the Mediterranean Sea. Ocean Sci. 4, 1-14.
    • (2008) Ocean Sci , vol.4 , pp. 1-14
    • Tonani, M.1    Pinardi, N.2    Dobricic, S.3    Pujol, I.4    Fratianni, C.5
  • 48
    • 0142010030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A variance-minimizing filter for large-scale applications
    • van Leeuwen, P.J., 2003. A variance-minimizing filter for large-scale applications. Mon. Weather Rev. 131, 2071-2084.
    • (2003) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 2071-2084
    • van Leeuwen, P.J.1
  • 49
    • 3242879518 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Performance of four turbulence closure models implemented using a generic length scale method
    • Warner, J.C., Sherwood, C.R., Arango, H.G., Signell, R.P., 2005. Performance of four turbulence closure models implemented using a generic length scale method. Ocean Model. 8, 81-113.
    • (2005) Ocean Model , vol.8 , pp. 81-113
    • Warner, J.C.1    Sherwood, C.R.2    Arango, H.G.3    Signell, R.P.4
  • 50
    • 0141794763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time multi-model superensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical systems of 1999
    • Williford, C.E., Krishnamurti, T., Torres, R.C., Cocke, S., 2003. Real-time multi-model superensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical systems of 1999. Mon. Weather Rev. 131, 1878-1894.
    • (2003) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 1878-1894
    • Williford, C.E.1    Krishnamurti, T.2    Torres, R.C.3    Cocke, S.4
  • 51
    • 0346687452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvement of the multimodel superensemble technique for seasonal forecasts
    • Yun, W., Stefanova, L., Krishnamurti, T., 2003. Improvement of the multimodel superensemble technique for seasonal forecasts. J. Climate 16 (22), 3834-3840.
    • (2003) J. Climate , vol.16 , Issue.22 , pp. 3834-3840
    • Yun, W.1    Stefanova, L.2    Krishnamurti, T.3
  • 52
    • 18544381247 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A multimodel superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts
    • doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00131.x
    • Yun,W., Stefanova, L., Mitra, A.K., Kumar, T., Dewar,W., Krishnamurti, T., 2005. A multimodel superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts. Tellus 57 (3), 280-289. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00131.x.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 280-289
    • Yun, W.1    Stefanova, L.2    Mitra, A.K.3    Kumar, T.4    Dewar, W.5    Krishnamurti, T.6


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.