Predictive skill, predictive capability and predictability in ocean forecasting

Oceans Conference Record (IEEE)

Volumn 2, Issue , 2002, Pages 787-794

  Robinson, A R ^a   Haley Jr , P J ^a   Lermusiaux, P F J ^a   Leslie, W G ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COASTAL ZONES; COMPUTER SIMULATION; OPTIMIZATION; REAL TIME SYSTEMS;

OCEAN FORECASTING;

OCEANOGRAPHY;

EID: 0037970786     PISSN: 01977385     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (27)

1. Besiktepe, S.T., P.F.J. Lermusiaux and A.R. Robinson, 2002. Coupled physical and biochemical data driven simulations of Massachusetts Bay in late summer: real-time and post-cruise data assimilation, Journal of Marine Systems, M. Gregoire, P.F.J. Lermusiaux and P. Brasseur (Eds.), submitted.
2. Briggs, W.M. and R.A. Levine, 1997. Wavelets and field forecast verification. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 6, 1329-1341.
3. Buizza, R. and T.N. Palmer, 1998. Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Monthly Weather Review, 126, 9, 2503-2518.
4. Carton, J.A., 1987. How Predictable are the Geostrophic Currents in the Recirculation Zone? Journal of Physical Oceanography, 17(6): 751-762.
5. Ghil, M. and N. Jiang, 1998. Recent forecast skill for the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 2, 171-174.
6. Glenn, S.M. and A.R. Robinson, 1995. Verification of an Operational Gulf Stream Forecasting Model, Quantitative Skill Assessment for Coastal Ocean Models, Coastal and Estuarial Studies, American Geophys. Union, 47, 469-499.
7. Haidvogel, D.B. and A. Beckmann, 1998. Numerical models of the coastal ocean. The Sea, Vol. 10, 466-478.
8. Krzysztofowicz, R., 1992. Bayesian correlation score: a utilitarian measure of forecast skill. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 1, 208-219.
9. Lermusiaux, P.F.J., A.R. Robinson, P.J. Haley and W.G. Leslie, 2002. Advanced interdisciplinary data assimilation: Filtering and smoothing via Error Subspace Statistical Estimation. Proceedings of the "The OCEANS 2002 MTS/IEEE" conference, in press.
10. Lozano, C.J., A.R. Robinson, H.G. Arango, A. Gangopadhyay, N.Q. Sloan, P.J. Haley, L.A. Anderson and W.G. Leslie, 1996. An Interdisciplinary Ocean Prediction System: Assimilation Strategies and Structured Data Models, Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling (P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, ed.), Elsevier Oceanog. Series, 413-452, Elsevier Science, The Netherlands.
11. Lynch, D.R. (ed.), 1995. Quantitative Skill Assessment for Coastal Ocean Models. Coastal and Estuarine Studies, 47, American Geophys. Union.
12. Majewski, D., 1997. Operational regional prediction. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 63, 1-2, 89-104.
13. Miller, A.J., P.-M. Poulain, A.R. Robinson, H.G. Arango, W.G. Leslie and A. Warn-Vamas, 1995. Quantitative Skill of Quasigeostrophic Forecasts of a Baroclinically Unstable Iceland Faeroe Front, Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(C6), 10833-10849.
14. Murphy, A.H., 1991. Forecast verification: its complexity and dimensionality. Monthly Weather Review, 119, 7, 1590-1601.
15. Murphy, A.H., 1996. General decompositions of MSE-based skill scores: measures of some basic aspects of forecast quality. Monthly Weather Review, 124, 10, 2353-2369.
16. Murphy, A.H. and E.S. Epstein, 1989. Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification. Monthly Weather Review, 117, 3, 572-581.
17. Robinson, A.R., 1996. Physical Processes, Field Estimation and Interdisciplinary Ocean Modeling, Earth-Science Reviews, 40(1/2), 3-54.
18. Robinson, A.R., S.M. Glenn, M.A. Spall, L.J. Walstad, G.M. Gardner, and W.G. Leslie, 1989. Forecasting Gulf Stream meanders and rings. EOS, 70(45), 1464-1473.
19. Robinson, A.R., H.G. Arango, A.J. Miller, A. Warn-Varnas, P.-M. Poulain, and W.G. Leslie, 1996a. Real-time operational forecasting on shipboard of the Iceland-Faeroe Frontal variability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77(2), 243-259.
20. Robinson, A.R., H.G. Arango, A. Warn-Varnas, W.G. Leslie, A.J. Miller, P.J. Haley and C.J. Lozano, 1996b. Real-Time Regional Forecasting, Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling (P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, ed.), Elsevier Oceanog. Series, 377-410, Elsevier Science, The Netherlands.
21. Robinson, A.R., P.F.J. Lermusiaux, and N.Q. Sloan, 1998. Data Assimilation. THE SEA: The Global Coastal Ocean, Volume 10: Processes and Methods (K.H. Brink and A.R. Robinson, eds.), John Wiley and Sons, NY, 541-594, 1998.
22. Stamus, P.A., Carr, F.H., Baumhefner, D.P., 1992. Application of a scale-separation verification technique to regional forecast models. Monthly Weather Review, 120, 1, 149-163.
23. Tapp, M.C., 1986. A new simple measure of forecast accuracy. Weather, 41, 4, 135-136.
24. Ward, M.N. and A. Navarra, 1997. Pattern analysis of SST-forced variability in ensemble GCM simulations: Examples over Europe and the tropical Pacific. Journal of Climate, 10, 9, 2210-2220.
25. Willems, R.C., S.M. Glenn, M.F. Crowley, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, R.E. Young, T. Ezer, G.L. Mellor, H.R. Arango, A.R. Robinson, and C-C. Lai, 1994. Experiment evaluates ocean models and data assimilation in the Gulf Stream. EOS, 75, 34.
26. Williamson, D.L., J.B. Drake, J.J. Hack, R. Jakob, and P.N. Swartztrauber, 1992. A standard test for numerical approximations to the shallow water equations in spherical geometry. J. Comp. Phys., 102, 211-224.
27. Xue, Y., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Palmer, T.N., 1997. Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. II. Optimal growth and forecast skill. Monthly Weather Review, 125, 9, 2057-2073.