Effects of climate change on the seasonality of weather for tourism in Alaska

Arctic

Volumn 62, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 443-457

  Yu, Gongmei ^a,b   Zvi, Schwartz ^a   Walsh, John E ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

^b IMPAQ International LLC   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate impacts; Climate index; Seasonality; Tourism

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CLIMATE EFFECT; DECISION MAKING; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONAL VARIATION; TOURISM; TOURISM DEVELOPMENT;

ALASKA; ANCHORAGE; KING SALMON; UNITED STATES;

ONCORHYNCHUS TSHAWYTSCHA;

EID: 75749128643     PISSN: 00040843     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.14430/arctic175     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment). 2004. Impacts of a warming climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 140 p.
2. -. 2005. Arctic climate impact assessment: Scientific report. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1042 p.
3. Ahas, R., Aasa, A., Mark, Ü, Pae, T., and Kull, A. 2007. Seasonal tourism spaces in Estonia: Case study with mobile positioning data. Tourism Management 28(3): 898-910
4. Alaska Climate Research Center. 2009. Temperature change in Alaska. http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/Temp Change.html.
5. Alaska Native Science Commission. 2005. http://www.ser.org/ files/ppt/Elaine%20Abraham%20PPT.pdf.
6. Alaska Office of Tourism Development. 2006. Alaska visitor volume and profile, summer 2006, executive summary, http:// www.commerce.state.ak.us/oed/ toubus/research.htm.
7. Alaska Travel Industry Association. 2006. Tourism: It's everyone's business. Alaska's visitor industry: 2006 report. http://www>. alaskatia.org/govtrelations/PDF/Alaska-Tourism-Report- Card-2006.pdf.
8. Amelung, B., and Viner, D. 2006. Mediterranean tourism: Exploring the future with the tourism climatic index. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 14(4): 349-366. (Pubitemid 44184221)
9. Amelung, B., Nicholls, S., and Viner, D. 2007. Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. Journal of Travel Research 45(3): 285-296. (Pubitemid 46152407)
10. Anderson, H.R., Tatham, R., and Black, W 1998. Multivariate data analysis. Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall.
11. Bartlein, P., Whitlock, C., and Shafer, S. 1997. Future climate change in the Yellowstone National Park Region and its potential impact on vegetation. Conservation Biology 11(3): 782-792. (Pubitemid 28028793)
12. Baum, T., and Lundtorp, S. 2001. Seasonality in tourism. London: Elsevier Science.
13. Becken, S., and Hay, J.E. 2007. Tourism and climate change. Clevedon, United Kingdom: Multilingual Matters Ltd. 329 p.
14. Bigano, A., Hamilton, J.M., and Tol, R.S.J. 2006a. The impact of climate on holiday destination choice. Climatic Change 76: 389-406. (Pubitemid 44098564)
15. -. 2006b. The impact of climate change on domestic and international tourism: A simulation study. FNU-58. Hamburg, Germany: Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science.
16. Bock, H.H. 1985. On some significance tests in cluster analysis. Journal of Classification 2: 77-108.
17. Braun, B.M., and Rungeling, B. 1992. The relative impact of Convention and tourist visitors on a regional economy: A case study. International Journal of Hospitality Management 11(1): 65-71.
18. Breiling, M., and Charamza, P. 1999. The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: A regionalized model for Austrian snow conditions. Regional Environmental Change 1(1): 4-14.
19. CNN. 2007. Deals offered to lure tourists to Alaska in spring. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18272025/.
20. Colt, S., Dugan, D., and Fay, G. 2007. The regional economy of southeast Alaska. http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/ Southeast%20Economy%20Overview%20final3.pdf.
21. de Freitas, C.R. 2003. Tourism climatology: Evaluating environmental information for decision making and business planning in the recreation and tourism sector. International Journal of Biometeorology 48: 45-54.
22. de Freitas, C.R., Scott, D., and McBoyle, G. 2004. A new generation climate index for tourism and recreation. Proceedings of the International Society of Biometeorology, Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation, 9-12 June, Kolimbari, Vreete, Greece.
23. Dudoit, S., and Fridlyand, J. 2002. A prediction-based resampling method to estimate the number of clusters in a dataset. Genome Biology 3(7): 0036.1-0036.21. http://genomebiology. com/2002/3/7/research/0036.
24. Foster, J.L., Robinson, D.A., Hall, D.K., and Estilow, T.W. 2008. Spring snow melt timing and changes over Arctic lands. Polar Geography 31: 145-157, doi:10.1080/10889370802580185.
25. Fraley, C., and Raftery, A.E. 1998. How many clusters? Which clustering method? Answers via model-based cluster analysis. The Computer Journal 41(8): 578-588.
26. Giles, A.R., and Perry, A.H. 1998. The use of a temporal analogue to investigate the possible impact of projected global warming on the UK tourist industry. Tourism Management 19(1): 75-80. (Pubitemid 28295733)
27. Gregory, R., Failing, L., and Leiserowitz, A. 2006. Climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and adoption in northwest Alaska. No.06-11. Eugene: Decision Research. http://www. decisionresearch.org/Projects/Climate-Change/.
28. Hamilton, J.M., and Lau, M.A. 2005. The role of climate information in tourist destination choice decision-making. In: Gössling, S., and Hall, C.M., eds. Tourism and global environmental change: Ecological, social, economic and political interrelationships. London: Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group. 229-250.
29. Hawkings, B.A., and Porter, E.E. 2003. Relative influences of current and historical factors on mammal and bird diversity patterns in de-glaciated North America. Global Ecology & Biogeography 12(6): 475-482.
30. Higham, J., and Hall, C.M. 2005. Making tourism sustainable: The real challenge of climate change? In: Hall, C.M., and Higham, J., eds. Tourism, recreation and climate change. Clevedon, United Kingdom: Channel View Publications. 301-307.
31. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
32. -. Climate change 2007: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 2 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
33. Jones, B., and Scott, D. 2006. Implications of climate change for visitation to Ontario's provincial parks. Leisure 30(1): 233-261.
34. Kaser, G., Hardy, D.R., Molg, T., Bradley, R.S., and Hyera, T.M. 2004. Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: Evidence and facts. International Journal of Climatology 24: 329-339. (Pubitemid 38485296)
35. Kennedy, E. 1999. Seasonality in Irish tourism: 1973-1995. Tourism Economics 5: 25-48.
36. Koenig, U., and Abegg, B. 1997. Impacts of climate change on winter tourism in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 5(1): 46-58.
37. Lemelin, R.H., and Smale, B. 2006. Effect of environmental context on the experience of polar bear viewers in Churchill, Manitoba. Journal of Ecotourism 5(3): 176-191. (Pubitemid 44857458)
38. Lim, C., and McAleer, M. 2001. Monthly seasonal variations of Asian tourism to Australia. Annals of Tourism Research 28(l): 68-82. (Pubitemid 33783065)
39. Lino Grima, A.P. 1993. Enhancing resilience in Great Lakes water levels management. International Journal of Environmental Studies 44(2/3): 97-112.
40. Lise, W., and Tol, R.S.J. 2002. Impact of climate on tourism demand. Climatic Change 55: 429-449.
41. Lohmann, M., and Kaim, E. 1999. Weather and holiday destination preferences, image attitude and experience. The Tourist Review 2: 54-64.
42. Maddison, D. 2001. In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourists. Climatic Change 49: 193-208.
43. Matzarakis, A. 2001. Climate and bioclimate information in tourism in Greece. In: Matzarakis, A., and de Freitas, C.R., eds. Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation. Report of a Workshop held 5-10 October 2001, Porto Carras, Neos Marmaras, Halkidiki, Greece. 171-183.
44. Matzarakis, A., and Moya, B. 2002. Concept for a climate tourism index including precipitation. 15th Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology joint with the International Congress on Biometeorology. American Meteorological Society, 28-29. www.mif.uni-freiburg.de/matzarakis/papers/ AMS-ISB-cuba.pdf.
45. McBoyle, G., and Wall, G. 1992. Great lakes skiing and climate change. In: Gill, A., and Hartmann, R., eds. Mountain resort development. Burnaby, British Columbia: Centre for Tourism Policy and Research, Simon Fraser University. 70-81.
46. Mieczkowski, Z. 1985. The tourism climatic index: A method of evaluating world climates for tourism. The Canadian Geographer 29: 220-233.
47. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2006. OECD warns climate change is threatening Europe's skiing trade, http://www.oecd.org/ document/22/0,2340,en-2649-201185-37825494-1-1-1-1,00.html.
48. Pagnan, J. 2003. Climate change impacts on Arctic tourism. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, 9-11 April, Djerba, Tunisia. Madrid: World Tourism Organization. Available on CD-Rom, http://www.world-tourism.org/sustainable/climate/brochure.htm.
49. Pelleg, D., and Moore, A. 2000. X-means: Extending K-means with efficient estimation of the number of clusters. In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Machine Learning. San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann. 727-734.
50. Present Weather Code Table. 2005. http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo/3505doc. txt.
51. Rauber, R.M., Walsh, J.E., and Charlevoix, D.M. 2008. Severe and hazardous weather: An introduction to high-impact meteorology, 3rd ed. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall Hunt. 640 p.
52. Sarle, W.S. 1983. Cubic clustering criterion. SAS Technical Report A-108. Cary, North Carolina: SAS Institute Inc.
53. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., and Schwartzentruber, N. 2004. Climate change and the distribution of climate resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research 27:105-117. (Pubitemid 46957559)
54. Scott, D., Wall, G., and McBoyle, G. 2005. Climate change and tourism and recreation in North America: Exploring regional risks and opportunities. In: Hall, C., and Higham, J., eds. Tourism, recreation and climate change. Clevedon, United Kingdom: Channel View Publications. 115-129.
55. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., Mills, B., and Minogue, A. 2006. Climate change and the sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 14(4): 376-398. (Pubitemid 44184223)
56. Scott, D., Jones, B., and Konopeka, J. 2007. Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park. Tourism Management 28(2): 570-579. (Pubitemid 44914665)
57. Slayback, D.A., Pinzon, D.A., Los, S.O., and Tucker, C.J. 2003. Northern Hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982-99. Global Change Biology 9(1): 1-15. (Pubitemid 36117520)
58. Smith, K. 1993. The influence of weather and climate on recreation and tourism. Weather 48(12): 398-404.
59. Smith, L.C., Sheng, Y., McDonald, G.M., and Hinzman, L.D. 2005. Arctic lakes. Science 308: 1429.
60. Stroeve, J., Holland, M.M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., and Serreze, M. 2007. Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703. (Pubitemid 47008153)
61. UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization). 2007. Tough challenges and major opportunities: Davos Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=517&Arti cleID=5676&l=en.
62. Yu, G., Schwartz, Z., and Walsh, J.E. 2009. A weather-resolving index for assessing the impact of climate change on tourism related climate resources. Climatic Change 95(3 -4): 551-573, doi:10.1007/sl0584-009-9565-7.