Multicentennial megadrought in northern Europe coincided with a global El Niño-Southern Oscillation drought pattern during Medieval Climate Anomaly

Geology

Volumn 37, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 175-178

  Helama, Samuli ^a   Merilänen, Jouko ^b   Tuomenvirta, Heikki ^c  

^a Department of Geology ^*  (Finland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN FINLAND   (Finland)

^c FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACCURATE PREDICTION; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATIONS; CLIMATE ANOMALIES; FUTURE CLIMATE; GLOBAL CLIMATES; LITTLE ICE AGE; NORTH ATLANTIC; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; PRECIPITATION DEFICITS; PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;

ARCTIC ENGINEERING; ASSOCIATION REACTIONS; ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; DROUGHT; GLACIAL GEOLOGY; ICE; NICKEL COMPOUNDS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; DENDROCLIMATOLOGY; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE; LITTLE ICE AGE; MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; PALEOCLIMATE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY);

EURASIA; EUROPE;

EID: 69649100778     PISSN: 00917613     EISSN: 00917613     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1130/G25329A.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Alexandre, P., 1987, Le climat en Europe au Moyen Age: Contribution à l'histoire des variations climatiques de 1000 à 1425, d'apres les sources narratives de l'Europe occidentale: Paris, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, v. 24, p. 1-827.
2. Benito, G., Díez-Herrero, A., and Fernández de Villalta, M., 2003, Magnitude and frequency of flooding in the Tagus Basin (central Spain) over the last millennium: Climatic Change, v. 58, p. 171-192, doi: 10.1023/A:1023417102053.
3. Bjerknes, J., 1969, Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific: Monthly Weather Review, v. 97, p. 163-172, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2.
4. Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G.M., 1970, Time series analysis: Forecasting and control: San Francisco, Holden-Day, 553 p.
5. Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Bartholin, T.S., Eckstein, D., Schweingruber, F.H., Karlén, W., Zetterberg, P., and Eronen, M., 1992, Fennoscandian summers from A.D. 500: Temperature changes on short and long timescales: Climate Dynamics, v. 7, p. 111-119, doi: 10.1007/ BF00211153.
6. Brönnimann, S., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Pauling, A., and Luterbacher, J., 2007, ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries: Climate Dynamics, v. 28, p. 181-197, doi: 10.1007/ s00382-006-0175-z.
7. Cane, M.A., 2005, The evolution of El Niño, past and future: Earth and Planetary Science Letters, v. 230, p. 227-240, doi: 10.1016/ j.epsl.2004.12.003.
8. Cobb, K.M., Charles, C.D., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R.L., 2003, El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium: Nature, v. 424, p. 271-276, doi: 10.1038/nature01779.
9. Cook, E.R., Woodhouse, C.A., Eakin, C.M., Meko, D.M., and Stahle, D.W., 2004, Long-term aridity changes in the western United States: Science, v. 306, p. 1015-1018, doi: 10.1126/science.1102586.
10. Cook, E.R., Seager, R., Cane, M.A., and Stahle, D.W., 2007, North American droughts: Reconstructions, causes and consequences: Earth-Science Reviews, v. 81, p. 93-134, doi:10.1016/ j.earscirev.2006.12.002.
11. deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., and Sarnthein, M., 2000, Coherent high- and low-latitude climate variability during the Holocene Warm Period: Science, v. 288, p. 2198-2202, doi: 10.1126/ science.288.5474.2198.
12. Emile-Geay, J., Cane, M., Seager, R., Kaplan, A., and Almasi, P., 2007, El Niño as a mediator of the solar influence on climate: Paleoceanography, v. 22, PA3210, doi: 10.1029/2006PA001304.
13. Fraedrich, K., 1994, An ENSO impact on Europe: A review: Tellus, v. 46A, p. 522-541.
14. Fritts, H.C., 1976, Tree rings and climate: London, Academic Press, 567 p.
15. Graham, N., Hughes, M.K., Ammann, C.M., Cobb, K.M., Hoerling, M.P., Kennett, D.J., Kennett, J.P., Rein, B., Stott, L., Wigand, P.E., and Xu, T., 2007, Tropical Pacific-mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times: Climatic Change, v. 83, p. 241-285, doi: 10.1007/ s10584-007-9239-2.
16. Herweijer, C., and Seager, R., 2008, The global footprint of persistent extra-tropical drought in the instrumental era: International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.1590 (in press).
17. Herweijer, C., Seager, R., and Cook, E.R., 2006, North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: History, simulation and implications for Medieval drought: The Holocene, v. 16, p. 159-171, doi: 10.1191/0959683606hl917rp.
18. Herweijer, C., Seager, R., Cook, E.R., and Emile-Geay, J., 2007, North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data: Journal of Climate, v. 20, p. 1353-1376, doi: 10.1175/ JCLI4042.1.
19. Hoerling, M.P., Hurrell, J.W., and Xu, T., 2001, Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change: Science, v. 292, p. 90-92, doi:10.1126/science.1058582.
20. Hurrell, J.W., 1995, Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation: Science, v. 269, p. 676-679, doi: 10.1126/science.269.5224.676.
21. Kiladis, G.N., and Diaz, H.F., 1989, Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation: Journal of Climate, v. 2, p. 1069-1090, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0442(1989)002<1069:GCAAWE>2.0.CO;2.
22. Kremenetski, K.V., Boettger, T., MacDonald, G.M., Vaschalova, T., Sulerzhitsky, L., and Hiller, A., 2004, Medieval climate warming and aridity as indicated by multiproxy evidence from the Kola Peninsula, Russia: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 209, p. 113-125, doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2004.02.018.
23. Lamb, H.H., 1965, The Early Medieval Warm Epoch and its sequel: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 1, p. 13-37, doi:10.1016/0031-0182(65)90004-0.
24. Lamb, H.H., 1977, Climate: Present, past and future. Volume 2: Climatic history and the future: London, Methuen, 837 p.
25. Lamb, H.H., 1982, Climate, history and the modern world: London, Methuen, 387 p.
26. Lloyd-Hughes, B., and Saunders, M.A., 2002, Seasonal prediction of European spring precipitation from El Niño-Southern Oscillation and local sea-surface temperatures: International Journal of Climatology, v. 22, p. 1-14, doi:10.1002/joc.723.
27. Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., and Clement, A., 2005, Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1000 years: Journal of Climate, v. 18, p. 447-456, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-3276.1.
28. Osborn, T.J., Briffa, K.R., and Jones, P.D., 1997, Adjusting variance for sample size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean time series: Dendrochronologia, v. 15, p. 89-99.
29. Palmer, T.N., 1999, A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction: Journal of Climate, v. 12, p. 575-591, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0442 (1999)012<0575:ANDPOC>2.0.CO;2.
30. Pozo-Vázquez, D., Gámiz-Fortis, S.R., Tovar-Pescador, J., Esteban-Parra, M.J., and Castro-Díez, Y., 2005, El Niño-Southern oscillation events and associated European winter precipitation anomalies: International Journal of Climatology, v. 25, p. 17-31, doi: 10.1002/joc.1097.
31. Proctor, C.J., Baker, A., and Barnes, W.L., 2002, A three thousand year record of North Atlantic climate: Climate Dynamics, v. 19, p. 449-454, doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0236-x.
32. Rein, B., Lückge, A., and Sirocko, F., 2004, A major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the Medieval period: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 31, L17211, doi: 10.1029/2004GL020161.
33. Rind, D., Shindell, D., Perlwitz, J., Lerner, J., and Lonergan, P., 2004, The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder Minimum and the present: Journal of Climate, v. 17, p. 906-929, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0442(2004)017<0906:TRIOSA>2.0.CO;2.
34. Russell, J.M., and Johnson, T.C., 2005, A highresolution geochemical record from Lake Edward, Uganda Congo and the timing and causes of tropical African drought during the late Holocene: Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 24, p. 1375-1389, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.003.
35. Russell, J.M., and Johnson, T.C., 2007, Little Ice Age drought in equatorial Africa: Intertropical Convergence Zone migrations and El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability: Geology, v. 35, p. 21-24, doi: 10.1130/G23125A.1.
36. Seager, R., Graham, N., Herweijer, C., Gordon, A.L., Kushnir, Y., and Cook, E., 2007a, Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate: Quaternary Science Reviews, v. 26, p. 2322-2336, doi:10.1016/ j.quascirev.2007.04.020.
37. Seager, R., and 12 others, 2007b, Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America: Science, v. 316, p. 1181-1184, doi: 10.1126/science.1139601.
38. Shindell, D.T., Miller, R.L., Schmidt, G.A., and Pandolfo, L., 1999, Greenhouse gas forcing of Northern Hemisphere winter climate trends: Nature, v. 399, p. 452-455, doi:10.1038/20905.
39. Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Miller, R.L., and Mann, M.E., 2003, Volcanic and solar forcing of climate change during the pre-Industrial period: Journal of Climate, v. 16, p. 4094-4107, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<4094:VASFOC>2.0.CO;2.
40. Solanki, S.K., Usoskin, I.G., Kromer, B., Schüssler, M., and Beer, J., 2004, Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years: Nature, v. 431, p. 1084-1087, doi: 10.1038/ nature02995.
41. Stager, J.C., Ryves, D., Cumming, B.F., Meeker, L.D., and Beer, J., 2005, Solar variability and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa, during the last millennium: Journal of Paleolimnology, v. 33, p. 243-251, doi: 10.1007/s10933-004-4227-2.
42. Stine, S., 1994, Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during medieval time: Nature, v. 369, p. 546-549, doi:10.1038/ 369546a0.
43. Sutton, R.T., and Hodson, D.L.R., 2005, Atlantic ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate: Science, v. 309, p. 115-118, doi: 10.1126/science.1109496.
44. Tol, R.S.J., and Langen, A., 2000, A concise history of Dutch river floods: Climatic Change, v. 46, p. 357-369, doi: 10.1023/A:1005655412478.
45. Tuomenvirta, H., 2004, Reliable estimation of climatic variations in Finland: Finnish Meteorological Institute Contributions, v. 43, p. 1-79.
46. Väliranta, M., Korhola, A., Seppä, H., Tuittila, E.-S., Sarmaja-Korjonen, K., Laine, J., and Alm, J., 2007, High-resolution reconstruction of wetness dynamics in a southern boreal raised bog, Finland, during the late Holocene: A quantitative approach: The Holocene, v. 17, p. 1093-1107, doi: 10.1177/0959683607082550.
47. van Oldenborgh, G.J., and Burgers, G., 2005, Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 32, L15701, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023110.
48. van Oldenborgh, G.J., Burgers, G., and Klein Tank, A., 2000, On the El Niño teleconnection to spring precipitation in Europe: International Journal of Climatology, v. 20, p. 565-574, doi: 10.1002/ (SICI)1097-0088(200004)20:5<565:AID-JOC488>3.0.CO;2-5.
49. Verschuren, D., Laird, K.R., and Cumming, B.F., 2000, Rainfall and drought in equatorial East Africa during the past 1,100 years: Nature, v. 403, p. 410-414, doi: 10.1038/35000179.
50. Wigley, T.M.L., Briffa, K.R., and Jones, P.D., 1984, On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology: Journal of Applied Meteorology, v. 23, p. 201-213, doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0201:OTAVOC>2.0.CO;2.
51. Zebiak, S.E., and Cane, M.A., 1987, A model El Niño/Southern Oscillation: Monthly Weather Review, v. 115, p. 2262-2278, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0493(1987)115<2262:AMENO>2.0.CO;2.