Climate change and translocations: The potential to re-establish two regionally-extinct butterfly species in Britain

Biological Conservation

Volumn 142, Issue 10, 2009, Pages 2114-2121

  Carroll, Matthew J ^a   Anderson, Barbara J ^a   Brereton, Tom M ^b   Knight, Sarah J ^a,c   Kudrna, Ottakar ^d   Thomas, Chris D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF YORK   (United Kingdom)

^b BUTTERFLY CONSERVATION   (United Kingdom)

^c IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^d Naturmuseum Südtirol ^*  (Italy)

Author keywords

Aporia crataegi; Assisted colonisation; Bioclimatic modelling; Black veined white; Mazarine blue; Polyommatus semiargus

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; BUTTERFLY; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLONIZATION; EXTINCTION; MIGRATION; MODELING; RAINFALL; TRANSLOCATION; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

EURASIA; EUROPE; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

APORIA CRATAEGI; PAPILIONOIDEA; POLYOMMATUS SEMIARGUS;

EID: 68449099926     PISSN: 00063207     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.04.010     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Araújo M.B., and Pearson R.G. Equilibrium of species' distributions with climate. Ecography 28 5 (2005) 693-695
2. Armstrong D.P., and Seddon P.J. Directions in reintroduction biology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23 1 (2008) 20-25
3. Asher J., Warren M., Fox R., Harding P., Jeffcoate G., and Jeffcoate S. The Millennium Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland (2001), Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
4. Berry P.M., Dawson T.P., Harrison P.A., and Pearson R.G. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11 (2002) 453-462
5. Carey, V., Redestig, H., 2008. ROC: Utilities for ROC, With Uarray Focus. R Package Version 1.16.0. .
6. Crone E.E., Pickering D., and Schultz C.B. Can captive rearing promote recovery of endangered butterflies? An assessment in the face of uncertainty. Biological Conservation 139 (2007) 103-112
7. Emmet A.M., and Heath J. The Moths and Butterflies of Great Britain and Ireland vol. 7(I) (1990), Harley Books, Colchester, UK
8. Fielding A.H., and Bell J.F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24 1 (1997) 38-49
9. Franco A.M.A., Hill J.K., Kitschke C., Collingham Y.C., Roy D.B., Fox R., Huntley B., and Thomas C.D. Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries. Global Change Biology 12 (2006) 1545-1553
10. Freeman, E., 2007. PresenceAbsence: An R Package for Presence-Absence Model Evaluation. .
11. Freeman E.A., and Moisen G.G. A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence and kappa. Ecological Modelling 217 (2008) 48-58
12. González-Megías A., Menéndez R., Roy D., Brereton T., and Thomas C.D. Changes in the composition of British butterfly assemblages over two decades. Global Change Biology 14 (2008) 1464-1474
13. Guisan A., and Zimmerman N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135 (2000) 147-186
14. Hambler C., and Speight M.R. Extinction rates in British nonmarine invertebrates since 1900. Conservation Biology 10 3 (1996) 892-896
15. Hastie, T., 2008. Gam: Generalised Additive Models. R Package Version 1.0. .
16. Hastie T.J., and Tibshirani R.J. Generalised Additive Models, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability 43 (1990), Chapman and Hall, London
17. Heikkinen R.K., Luoto M., Araújo M.B., Virkkala R., Thuiller W., and Sykes M.T. Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography 30 6 (2006) 751-777
18. Hickling R., Roy D.B., Hill J.K., Fox R., and Thomas C.D. The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology 12 (2006) 450-455
19. Hill J.K., Thomas C.D., and Huntley B. Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 266 (1999) 1197-1206
20. Hill J.K., Thomas C.D., Fox R., Telfer M.G., Willis S.G., Asher J., and Huntley B. Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 269 (2002) 2163-2171
21. Hoegh-Guldberg O., Hughes L., McIntyre S., Lindenmayer D.B., Parmesan C., Possingham H.P., and Thomas C.D. Assisted colonisation and rapid climate change. Science 321 (2008) 345-346
22. Hughes C.L., Dytham C., and Hill J.K. Modelling and analysing evolution of dispersal in populations at expanding range boundaries. Ecological Entomology 32 (2007) 437-445
23. Hunter Jr. M.L. Climate change and moving species: furthering the debate on assisted colonisation. Conservation Biology 21 5 (2007) 1356-1358
24. Huntley B., Berry P.M., Cramer W., and McDonald A.P. Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography 22 6 (1995) 967-1001
25. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K., Reisinger, A. (Eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
26. Kudrna O. The distribution atlas of European butterflies. Oedippus 20 (2002) 1-342
27. Luoto M., and Heikkinen R.K. Disregarding topographical heterogeneity biases species turnover assessments based on bioclimatic models. Global Change Biology 14 (2008) 483-494
28. Luoto M., Heikkinen R.K., Pöyry J., and Saarinen K. Determinants of the biogeographical distribution of butterflies in boreal regions. Journal of Biogeography 33 (2006) 1764-1778
29. MacKenzie D.I., Nichols J.D., Hines J.E., Knutson M.G., and Franklin A.B. Estimating site occupancy, colonisation, and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology 84 8 (2003) 2200-2207
30. McCarty J.P. Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology 15 2 (2001) 320-331
31. McLachlan J.S., Hellmann J.J., and Schwartz M.W. A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conservation Biology 21 2 (2007) 297-302
32. Menéndez R., González-Megías A., Hill J.K., Braschler B., Willis S.G., Collingham Y., Fox R., Roy D.B., and Thomas C.D. Species richness changes lag behind climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society, B 273 (2006) 1465-1470
33. Merrill R.M., Gutiérrez D., Lewis O.T., Gutiérrez J., Díez S.B., and Wilson R.J. Combined effects of climate and biotic interactions on the elevational range of a phytophagous insect. Journal of Animal Ecology 77 (2008) 145-155
34. Mitchell, T.D., Carter, T.R., Jones, P.D., Hulme, M., New, M., 2004. A Comprehensive Set of High-Resolution Grids of Monthly Climate for Europe and the Globe: the Observed Record (1990-2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001-2100). Tyndall Centre Working Paper, Tyndal Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich.
35. Mueller J.M., and Hellman J.J. An assessment of invasion risk from assisted migration. Conservation Biology 22 3 (2008) 562-567
36. Nakicenovic N., and Swart R. Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2000), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
37. New M., Lister D., Hulme M., and Makin I. A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Research 21 (2002) 1-25
38. Ohlemüller R., Gritti E.S., Sykes M.T., and Thomas C.D. Towards European climate risk surfaces: the extent and distribution of analogous and non-analogous climates 1931-2100. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15 (2006) 395-405
39. Ohlemüller R., Anderson B.J., Araújo M.B., Butchart S.H.M., Kudrna O., Ridgely R.S., and Thomas C.D. The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change. Biology Letters 4 (2008) 568-572
40. Opdam P., and Wascher D. Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation. Biological Conservation 117 (2004) 285-297
41. Parmesan C., and Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421 (2003) 37-42
42. Parmesan C., Ryrholm N., Stefanescu C., Hill J.K., Thomas C.D., Descimon H., Huntley B., Kaila L., Kullberg J., Tammaru T., Tennent W.J., Thomas J.A., and Warren M. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399 (1999) 579-583
43. Pearce J., and Lindenmayer D. Bioclimatic analysis to enhance reintroduction biology of the endangered helmeted honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix) in southeastern Australia. Restoration Ecology 6 3 (1998) 238-243
44. Pearson R.G., and Dawson T.P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecology and Biogeography 12 (2003) 361-371
45. Pöyry J., Lindgren S., Salminen J., and Kuussaari M. Responses of butterfly and moth species to restored cattle grazing in semi-natural grasslands. Biological Conservation 122 (2005) 465-478
46. Pratt C. A modern review of the demise of Aporia crataegi L.: the black-veined white. Entomologist's Record and Journal of Variation 95 45-52 161-166 (1983) 232-237
47. Prentice I.C., Cramer W., Harrison S.P., Leemans R., Monserud R.A., and Solomon A.M. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography 19 2 (1992) 117-134
48. Pullin A. Restoration of butterfly populations in Britain. Restoration Ecology 4 1 (1996) 71-80
49. R Development Core Team, 2008. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. .
50. Sarrazin F., and Barbault R. Reintroduction: challenges and lessons for basic ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 11 11 (1996) 474-478
51. Schroter D., Cramer W., Leemans R., Prentice I.C., Araújo M.B., Arnell N.W., Bondeau A., Bugmann H., Carter T.R., Gracia C.A., de la Vega-Leinert A.C., Erhard M., Ewert F., Glendining M., House J.I., Kankaanpaa S., Klein R.J.T., Lavorel S., Lindner M., Metzger M.J., Meyer J., Mitchell T.D., Reginster I., Rounsevell M., Sabate S., Sitch S., Smith B., Smith J., Smith P., Sykes M.T., Thonicke K., Thuiller W., Tuck G., Zaehle S., and Zierl B. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310 (2005) 1333-1337
52. Schultz C.B. Restoring resources for an endangered butterfly. Journal of Applied Ecology 38 (2001) 1007-1019
53. Settele J., Kudrna O., Harpke A., Kühn I., van Swaay C., Verovnik R., Warren M., Wiemers M., Hanspach J., Hickler T., Kühn E., van Halder I., Veling K., Vliegenthart A., Wynhoff I., and Schweiger O. Climatic risk atlas of European butterflies. Biorisk 1 (Special Issue) (2008), Pensoft, Sofia, Bulgaria
54. Söderström B., and Hedblom M. Comparing movement of four butterfly species in experimental grassland strips. Journal of Insect Conservation 11 (2007) 333-342
55. Sparks T.H., Roy D.B., and Dennis R.L.H. The influence of temperature on migration of Lepidoptera into Britain. Global Change Biology 11 (2005) 507-514
56. Swets J.A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240 (1988) 1285-1293
57. Thomas C.D., Cameron A., Green R.E., Bakkenes M., Beaumont L.J., Collingham Y.C., Erasmus B.F.N., de Siqueira M.F., Grainger A., Hannah L., Hughes L., Huntley B., van Jaarsveld A.S., Midgley G.F., Miles L., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Peterson A.T., Phillips O.L., and Williams S.E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427 (2004) 145-148
58. Thomas J.A., Telfer M.G., Roy D.B., Preston C.D., Greenwood J.J.D., Asher J., Fox R., Clarke R.T., and Lawton J.H. Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds and plants and the global extinction crisis. Science 303 (2004) 1879-1881
59. Warren M.S., Hill J.K., Thomas J.A., Asher J., Fox R., Huntley B., Roy D.B., Telfer M.G., Jeffcoate S., Harding P., Jeffcoate G., Willis S.G., Greatorex-Davies J.N., Moss D., and Thomas C.D. Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414 (2001) 65-69
60. Williams J.W., Jackson S.T., and Kutzbach J.E. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 104 14 (2007) 5738-5742
61. Willis S.G., Hill J.K., Thomas C.D., Roy D.B., Fox R., Blakeley D.S., and Huntley B. Assisted colonization in a changing climate: a test-study using two UK butterflies. Conservation Letters 2 1 (2009) 46-52
62. Willis S.G., Thomas C.D., Hill J.K., Collingham Y.C., Telfer M.G., Fox R., and Huntley B. Dynamic distribution modelling: predicting the present from the past. Ecography 32 (2009) 5-12
63. Wilson R.J., Davies Z.G., and Thomas C.D. Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on range expansion in a butterfly. Proceedings of the Royal Society, B 276 (2009) 1421-1427