Management of foresight portfolio: Analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation

Technology Analysis and Strategic Management

Volumn 21, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 381-405

  Konnola, Totti ^a   Ahlqvist, Toni ^b   Eerola, Annele ^b   Kivisaari, Sirkku ^b   Koivisto, Raija ^b  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^b VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND   (Finland)

Author keywords

Foresight methodology; Innovation policy; Portfolio management; Roadmaps; Stakeholder participation modular foresight design

Indexed keywords

BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; CLASSIFICATION; DESIGN; INNOVATION; METHODOLOGY; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; TECHNOLOGY POLICY;

EURASIA; EUROPE; FINLAND; NORTHERN EUROPE; SCANDINAVIA;

EID: 67651027861     PISSN: 09537325     EISSN: 14653990     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09537320902750830     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Ahlqvist, T. (2005) From information society to biosociety? On societal waves, developing key technologies, and new professions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72, pp. 501-519.
2. Ahlqvist, T., Carlsen, H., Iversen, J. and Kristiansen, E. (2007) Nordic ICT foresight. Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level.VTT Publications 653. Edita Prima Oy, Helsinki
3. Ahlqvist, T., Carlsen, H., Iversen, J. and Kristiansen, E. (2007) Nordic ICT foresight. Futures of the ICT environments and applications on the Nordic level.Publication of the Nordic Innovation Centre series
4. Ansoff, I. (1975) Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review, 17:2, pp. 21-33.
5. Arthur, W. B. (1989) Competing technologies, increasing returns and lock-in by historical events. Economic Journal, 99:394, pp. 116-131.
6. Arthur, W. B. (1994) Increasing returns and path dependence in the economy, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor
7. Barré, R. (2002) Synthesis of technology foresight. Strategic policy intelligence: Current trends, the state of play and perspectives, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS, Seville
8. Coffman, B. S. (1997) Weak signal research, Part III: Sampling, uncertainty and phase shifts in weak signal evolution. MG Taylor Corporation
9. Cruickshank, J. and Susskind, L. (1987) Breaking the impasse: Consensual approaches to resolving public disputes, Basic Books, New York
10. Cuhls, K. (2003) From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany. Journal of Forecasting, 22:2, pp. 93-111.
11. Cuhls, K., Blind, K. and Grupp, H. (2002) Innovations of our future, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg
12. da Costa, O., Warnke, P., Cagnin, C. and Scapolo, F. (2008) The impact of foresight on policy-making: Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology Analysis & trategic Management, 20:3, pp. 369-387.
13. Dannemand Andersen, P., Borup, M., Borch, K., Kaivo-oja, J., Eerola, A., Finnbjörnsson, T., Øverland, E., Eriksson, A., Malmér, T. and Mölleryd, B. (2007) Foresight in Nordic innovation systems.
14. Dannemand Andersen, P., Holst Jørgensen, B., Eerola, A., Koljonen, T., Loikkanen, T. and Eriksson, E. A. (2005) Building the Nordic research and innovation area in hydrogen.
15. David, P. A. (1985) Clio and the economics of QWERTY. The American Economic Review, 75:2, pp. 332-337.
16. Eerola, A. and Holst-Jørgensen, B. (2002) Technology foresight in the Nordic countries. Center for Innovation and Commercial Development. Risoe-R-1362(EN
17. Eerola, A. and Jørgensen, B. H. (2008) Foresight in the Nordic countries. The handbook of technology foresight-concepts and practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
18. Eerola, A. and Vayrynen, E. (2002) Developing TF and TA practices on the basis of European experience.
19. Eerola, A., Loikkanen, T., Jørgensen, B. H., Dannemand Andersen, P. and Eriksson, E. A. (2004) Nordic H2 Energy Foresight-Complementary Contribution of Expert Views and Formal Analyses. A paper presented at the EU-US Scientific Seminar 'New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods' Seville
20. Eerola, A., Loikkanen, T., Koljonen, T., Jørgensen, B. H., Dannemand Andersen, P. and Eriksson, E. A. (2005) Nordic H2 energy foresight-managerial challengers of the interactive process. A paper presented at the 17th Annual International conference 'Foresight Management in Corporations and Public Organisations-New Visions for Sustainability' Helsinki
21. Eriksson, E. A. and Weber, M. (2006) Adaptive foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. A Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis
22. European Commission (2002) Thinking, debating and shaping the future: foresight for Europe. European Commission, Brussels
23. Grabher, G. and Stark, D. (1997) Organizing diversity: Evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism. Regional Studies, 31:4, pp. 411-423.
24. Harris, D. and Zeisler, S. (2002) Weak signals: Detecting the next big thing. The Futurist, 36, pp. 21-28.
25. Helmer, O. (1983) Looking forward: A guide to futures research, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA
26. Hjelt, M., Luoma, P., van de Linde, E., Ligvoet, A., Vader, J. and Kahan, J. (2001) Experiences with national technology foresight studies. Sitra Report Series 4/2001 Helsinki
27. Irvine, J. and Martin, B. R. (1984) Foresight in science, picking the winners, Dover, London
28. Jacobsson, S. and Johnson, A. (2000) The diffusion of renewable energy technology: An analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy, 28:9, pp. 625-640.
29. Keenan, T. (2003) Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level: The UK experience. Journal of Forecasting, 22:2, pp. 129-160.
30. Kemp, R. and Loorbach, D. (2006) Transition management: A reflexive governance approach. Reflexive governance for sustainable development, pp. 103-130. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
31. Kivisaari, S., Lovio, R. and Vayrynen, E. (2004) Managing experiments for transition: Examples of societal embedding in energy and health care sectors. System innovation and the transition to sustainability: Theory, evidence and policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
32. Koivisto, R. A., Reunanen, M. O. E. and Nissila, M. H. (1997) Safety reports in Finnish process industries: Experiences based on some case studies. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 10:2, pp. 77-81.
33. Koivisto, R. A., Tormakangas, K. M. and Kauppinen, V. S. (2002) Hazard identification and risk assessment procedure for genetically modified plants in the field-GMHAZID. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 9:2, pp. 110-116.
34. Kostoff, R. N. and Schaller, R. R. (2001) Science and technology roadmaps. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 48:2, pp. 132-143.
35. Könnölä, T. (2006) Escaping path dependence - essays on foresight and environmental management.Helsinki University of Technology
36. Könnölä, T., Brummer, V. and Salo, A. (2007) Diversity in foresight-insights from the fostering of innovation ideas. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, pp. 608-626.
37. Könnölä, T., Salo, A. and Brummer, V. Foresight for European coordination: Developing national priorities for the forest based sector technology platform. International Journal of Technology Management
38. Könnölä T., Unruh, G. and Carrillo-Hermosilla, J. (2007) Toward prospective voluntary agreements: Reflections from a hydrogen foresight project. Cleaner Production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15, pp. 259-265.
39. Lee, S. and Park, Y. (2005) Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72, pp. 567-583.
40. Linstone, H. A. (2007) The rise and fall of corporate R&D: Out of the dusty labs. The Economist, 3, pp. 74-76.
41. Lundvall, B.-Å. (1992) National systems of innovation: Towards a theory of innovation and interactive learning, Pinter, London
42. Martin, B. R. and Johnston, R. (1999) Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system. Experiences in Britain, Austria, and New Zealand. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 60, pp. 37-54.
43. Mendonca, S., Pina e Cunha, M., Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. (2004) Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation. Futures, 36:2, pp. 201-218.
44. Nonaka, I. (1994) A dynamic theory of organisational knowledge creation. Organisation Science, 5:1, pp. 14-37.
45. Nonaka, I. and Takeuchi, H. (1995) The knowledge-creating company, Oxford University Press, New York
46. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C. J. P. and Probert, D. R. (2004) Technology roadmapping-a planning framework for revolution and revolution. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71, pp. 5-26.
47. Salmenkaita, J. -P. and Salo, A. (2004) Emergent foresight processes: industrial activities in wireless communications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71:9, pp. 897-912.
48. Salo, A., Gustafsson, T. and Ramanathan, R. (2003) Multicriteria methods for technology foresight. Journal of Forecasting, 22:2, pp. 235-255.
49. Salo, A., Konnola, T. and Hjelt, M. (2004) Responsiveness in foresight management: Reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1:1, pp. 70-88.
50. Smith, K. (2000) Innovation as a systemic phenomenon: Rethinking the role of policy. Enterprise &Innovation Management Studies, 1:9, pp. 73-102.
51. Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. (2004) The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1:1, pp. 4-32.
52. Tushman, M. L. and O'Reilly, C. A. (1997) Winning through innovation, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA
53. Unruh, G. C. (2000) Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy, 28:12, pp. 817-830.
54. Van der Meulen, B., de Wilt, J. and Rutten, H. (2003) Developing futures for agriculture in the Netherlands: A systematic exploration of the strategic value of foresight. Journal of Forecasting, 22:2, pp. 219-233.
55. Voss, J-P. and Kemp, R. (2006) Sustainability and reflexive governance: introduction. Reflexive governance for sustainable development, pp. 3-27. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham