Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): Implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard

Natural Hazards

Volumn 50, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 45-71

  Utkucu, Murat ^a   Kanbur, Zakir ^b   Alptekin, Ömer ^c   Sünbül, Fatih ^a  

^a SAKARYA UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

^b SULEYMAN DEMIREL UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

^c BOGAZICI UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

Author keywords

Earthquake recurrence models; Historical seismicity; North Anatolian Fault Zone; The Sea of Marmara; Turkey

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE; EARTHQUAKE RUPTURE; FAULT ZONE; HISTORICAL RECORD; KOCAELI EARTHQUAKE 1999; NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT; PALEOSEISMICITY; SEISMIC HAZARD; SEISMICITY;

EURASIA; SEA OF MARMARA; TURKEY;

EID: 67649411707     PISSN: 0921030X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9317-4     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Altinok Y, Alpar B, Yaltirak C (2003) Şarköy-Mürefte 1912 earthquake's tsunami, extension of the associated faulting in the Marmara Sea. J Seismol 7:329-346. doi: 10.1023/A:1024581022222
2. Altunel E, Meghraoui M, Akyüz S, Dikbaş A (2004) Characteristics of the 1912 co-seismic rupture along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey): Implications for the expected Marmara earthquake. Terra Nova 16(4):198-204. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2004.00552.x
3. Ambraseys N (2001a) The earthquake of 10 July 1894 in the Gulf of Izmit (Turkey) and its relation to the earthquake of 17 August 1999. J Seismol 5:117-128. doi: 10.1023/A:1009871605267
4. Ambraseys N (2001b) The earthquake of 1509 in Sea of Marmara, Turkey, revisited. Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:1397-1416. doi: 10.1785/0120000305
5. Ambraseys N (2002a) The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea Region over the last 2000 years. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:1-18. doi: 10.1785/0120000843
6. Ambraseys NN (2002b) Seismic sea-waves in the Marmara Sea region during the last 20 centuries. J Seismol 6:571-578. doi: 10.1023/A:1021158610252
7. Ambraseys NN, Finkel CF (1987) The Saros-Marmara earthquake of 9 August 1912. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 15:189-211. doi: 10.1002/eqe.4290150204
8. Ambraseys NN, Finkel CF (1991) Long-term seismicity of Istanbul and of the Marmara Sea region. Terra Nova 3:527-539. doi: 10.1111/ j.1365-3121.1991.tb00188.x
9. Ambraseys NN, Finkel CF (1995) The seismicity of Turkey and adjacent areas: A historical review, 1500-1800. Eren Publication, Istanbul, ISBN 975-7622-38-9, pp 240
10. Ambraseys NN, Jackson JA (2000) Seismicity of Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500. Geophys J Int 141:F1-F6. doi: 10.1046/ j.1365-246x.2000.00137.x
11. Armijo T, Meyer B, Hubert A, Barka A (1999) Westwards propagation of the North Anatolian Fault into the Northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics. Geology 27(3):267-270. doi:10.1130/ 0091-7613(1999)027<0267:WPOTNA>2.3.CO;2
12. Armijo T, Meyer B, Navarro S, King G, Barka A (2002) Asymmetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: A clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault? Terra Nova 14:80-86. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3121.2002.00397.x
13. Armijo R, Pondard N, Meyer B et al (2005) Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart North Anatolian Fault: Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 6:Q06009:29. doi: 10.1029/2004GC000896
14. Ayhan E, Alsan E, Sancakli N, Üçer SB (1984) Türkiye dolaylari deprem kataloǧu 1881-1981. Boǧaziçi University Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul, Turkey, 126 pp
15. Bakun WH, Lindh AG (1985) The Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment. Science 229:619-624. doi: 10.1126/ science.229.4714.619
16. Bakun WH, Wentworth CM (1997) Estimating earthquake location and magnitude from seismic intensity data. Bull Seismol Soc Am 87:1502-1521
17. Barka AA (1992) The North Anatolian Fault Zone. Ann Tecton 6:164-195
18. Barka A (1996) Slip distribution along the North Anatolian Fault associated with the large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967. Bull Seismol Soc Am 86:1238-1254
19. Barka A, Kadinsky-Cade K (1988) Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity. Tectonics 7:663-684. doi: 10.1029/ TC007i003p00663
20. Barka A, Altunel E, Sunal G, Çakir Z, Dikbaş A, Yerli B et al (2002) The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake M 7.4 North Anatolian Fault. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:43-60. doi: 10.1785/0120000841
21. Cisternas A, Polat O, Rivera L (2004) The Marmara Sea region: Seismic behaviour in time and the likelihood of another large earthquake near Istanbul (Turkey). J Seismol 8:427-437. doi: 10.1023/ B:JOSE.0000038451.04626.18
22. Crampin S, Üçer B (1975) The seismicity of Marmara Sea Region of Turkey. Geophys J R Astron Soc 40:269-288
23. Demirbaǧ E, Rangin C, Le Pichon X, Şengör AMC (2003) Investigation of tectonics of the Main Marmara Fault by means of deep-towed seismic data. Tectonophysics 361:1-19. doi: 10.1016/ S0040-1951(02)00535-8
24. Dewey JW (1976) Seismicity of northern Anatolia. Bull Seismol Soc Am 66:843-868
25. Feedman D, Pisani R, Purves R, Adhikari A (1991) Statistics. W·W. Norton & Company, New York
26. Flerit F, Armijo R, King GCP, Meyer B, Barka A (2003) Slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity vectors. Geophys J Int 154:1-7. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01899.x
27. Gökaşan E, Ustaömer T, Gazioǧlu C, Yücel ZY, Öztürk K, Tur H et al (2003) Morpho-tectonic evolution of the Marmara Sea inferred from multi-beam bathymetric and seismic data. Geo-Mar Lett 23:19-33. doi: 10.1007/s00367-003-0120-7
28. Hubert-Ferrari A, Barka A, Jacques E, Nalbant SS, Meyer B, Armijo R et al (2000) Seismic hazard following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake. Nature 404:269-273. doi: 10.1038/35005054
29. Hubert-Ferrari A, Armijo R, King G, Meyer B, Barka A (2002) Morphology, displacement and slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault Turkey. J Geophys Res 107(10):2235. doi: 10.1029/2001JB000393
30. Kalafat D, Öz N, Kara M, Öǧütçü Z, Kiliç K, Pinar A, et al. (2000) An earthquake catalogue for Turkey and surrounding area. Boǧaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey, 236 pp
31. Kanbur K, Alptekin Ö, Utkucu M, Kanbur S (2007) Imaging the basin and fault geometry from the multichannel seismic reflection data in the Tekirdaǧ Basin, Marmara Sea, Turkey. Geophys J Int 169:659-666. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03356
32. King GCP, Hubert-Ferrari A, Nalbant SS, Meyer B, Armijo R, Bowman D (2001) Coulomb interactions and the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake. Earth Planet Sci 333:557-569
33. Klinger Y, Sieh K, Altunel E, Akoglu A, Barka A, Dawson T et al (2003) Paleoseismic evidence of characteristic slip on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey. Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:2317-2332. doi: 10.1785/0120010270
34. Le Pichon X, Taymaz T, Şengör C (2000) Important problems to be solved in the Sea of Marmara. In: Abstracts of NATO advanced research seminar on integration of earth sciences research, Istanbul, Turkey, 14-17 May 2000, pp 66-67
35. Le Pichon X, Şengör AMC, Demirbaǧ E, Rangin C, Imren C, Armijo R et al (2001) The active Main Marmara Fault. Earth Planet Sci Lett 192:595-616. doi: 10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00449-6
36. Lorenzo-Martin F, Roth F, Wang R (2006) Elastic and inelastic triggering of earthquakes in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Tectonophysics 424:271-289. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.046
37. McClusky S, Balassanian S, Barka A, Demir C, Ergintav S, Georgiev I et al (2000) GPS constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus. J Geophys Res 105:5695-5719
38. McHugh CMG, Seeber L, Cormier MH, Dutton J, Çagatay N, Polonia A et al (2006) Submarine earthquake geology along the North Anatolia Fault in the Marmara Sea, Turkey: A model for transform basin sedimentation. Earth Planet Sci Lett 248:661-684. doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2006.05.038
39. McKenzie DP (1972) Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region. Geophys J R Astron Soc 30:109-185
40. Meade BJ, Hager BH, McClusky SC, Reilinger RE, Ergintav S, Lenk O et al (2002) Estimates of seismic potential in the Marmara Sea Region from block models of secular deformation constrained by global positioning system measurements. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:208-215. doi: 10.1785/ 0120000837
41. Muller JR, Aydin A (2005) Using mechanical modelling to constrain fault geometries proposed for the northern Marmara Sea. J Geophys Res 110:B03407:13. doi: 10.1029/2004JB003226
42. Nalbant SS, Hubert A, King GCP (1998) Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest Turkey and the north Aegean Sea. J Geophys Res 103:24469-24486. doi: 10.1029/98JB01491
43. Nyst M, Thatcher W (2004) New constraints on the active tectonic deformation of the Aegean. J Geophys Res 109:B11406:23. doi: 10.1029/ 2003JB002830
44. Okay AI, Kaşlilar-Özcan A, Imren C, Boztepe-Güney A, Demirbaǧ E, Kuşçu I (2000) Active faults and evolving strike-slip basins in the Marmara Sea, northwest Turkey: A multichannel seismic reflection study. Tectonophysics 321:189-218. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1951(00)00046-9
45. Okay AI, Tüysüz O, Kaya Ş (2004) From transpression to transtension: Changes in morphology and structure around a bend on the North Anatolian Fault in the Marmara region. Tectonophysics 391:259-282. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2004.07.016
46. Öncel AO, Wyss M (2000) The major asperities of the 1999 MW = 7.4 Izmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decade before it. Geophys J Int 143:501-506. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.00211.x
47. Özalaybey S, Ergin M, Aktar M, Tapirdamaz C, Biçmen F, Yörük A (2002) The 1999 Izmit earthquake sequence in Turkey: seismological and tectonic aspects. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92(1):376-386. doi: 10.1785/0120000838
48. Papazachos BC, Papazachou CB (1997) The earthquakes of Greece. Ziti Publication, Thessaloniki, 304 pp
49. Parke JR, White RS, McKenzie D, Minshull TA, Bull JM, Kuşçu I et al (2002) Interaction between faulting and sedimentation in the Sea of Marmara, western Turkey. J Geophys Res 107(11):2286. doi: 10.1029/2001JB000450
50. Parsons T (2004) Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara Turkey. J Geophys Res 109:B05304. doi: 10.1029/2003JB002667
51. Parsons T, Toda S, Stein RS, Barka A, Dieterich JH (2000) Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation. Science 288:661-665. doi: 10.1126/ science.288.5466.661
52. Pinar N (1942) Geologie et meteorologie sismiques du bassin de la mer de Marmara. Univ Istanbul Sci Bull 7(3-4):121-182
53. Pinar A, Kuge K, Honkura Y (2003) Moment inversion of recent small to moderate sized earthquakes: Implications for seismic hazard and active tectonics beneath the Sea of Marmara. Geophys J Int 153:133-145. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01897.x
54. Polat O, Haessler H, Cisternas A, Philip H, Eyidoǧan H, Aktar M et al (2002) The Izmit (Kocaeli), Turkey earthquake of 17 August 1999: previous seismicity, aftershocks, and seismotectonics. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92:361-375. doi: 10.1785/0120000816
55. Pondard N, Armijo R, King GCP, Meyer B, Flerit F (2007) Fault interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences. Geophys J Int. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03580.x
56. Rockwell T, Barka A, Dawson T, Akyüz S, Thorup K (2001) Paleoseismology of the Gaziköy-Saros segment of the North Anatolian Fault Northwestern Turkey: Comparison of the historical and paleoseismic records, implications of regional seismic hazard, and models of earthquake recurrence. J Seismol 5:443-448. doi: 10.1023/A:1011435927983
57. Roeloffs E, Langbein J (1994) The earthquake prediction experiment at Parkfield, California. Rev Geophys 32(3):315-336. doi: 10.1029/94RG01114
58. Sato T, Kasahara J, Taymaz T, Masakazu I, Kanimura A, Hayakawa T et al (2004) A study of microearthquake seismicity and focal mechanisms within the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey) using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs). Tectonophysics 391:303-314. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2004.07.018
59. Seeber L, Emre O, Cormier M-H, Sorlien CC, McHugh CMG, Polonia A et al (2004) Uplift and subsidence from oblique slip: The Ganos-Marmara bend of North Anatolian Transform, Western Turkey. Tectonophysics 391:239-258. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2004.07.015
60. Soysal H, Sipahioǧlu S, Kolçak D, Altinok Y (1981) Türkiye ve çevresinin tarihi deprem kataloǧu, M.Ö. 2100-M.S. 1900, TÜBITAK, Project No. TBAG341, İstanbul
61. Stein RS, Barka AA, Dieterich JH (1997) Progressive failure on the North Anatolian Fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys J Int 128:594-604. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x
62. Şaroǧlu F, Emre Ö, Kusççu I (1992) Active fault map of Turkey. Mineral Research and Exploration Institute, Ankara, Turkey
63. Şengör AMC, Görür N, Şaroǧlu F (1985) Strike-slip faulting and related basin formation in zones of tectonic escape: Turkey as a case study. In: Biddle KT, Christie-Blick N (eds) Strike-slip faulting and basin formation, vol 37. Society of Economic Paleontology Mineralogists, Tulsa, OK, USA, pp 227-264 (special publication)
64. Şengör AMC, Tüysüz O, Imren C, Sakinç M, Eyidoǧan H, Görür N et al (2005) The North Anatolian Fault: A new look. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 33:37-112. doi: 10.1146/ annurev.earth.32.101802.120415
65. Tibi R, Bock G, Xia Y, Baumbach M, Grosser H, Milkerit C et al (2001) Rupture process of the August 17 İzmit and November 12 1999 Düzce (Turkey) earthquakes. Geophys J Int 144:F1-F7. doi: 10.1046/ j.1365-246x.2001.00360.x
66. Toksöz MN, Shakal AF, Micheal AJ (1979) Space-time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault Zone and seismic gaps. Pure Appl Geophys 117:1258-1270. doi: 10.1007/BF00876218
67. Toksöz MN, Relinger RE, Doll CG, Barka AA, Yalçin N (1999) İzmit (Turkey) earthquake of 17 August 1999: First report. Seismol Res Lett 70:669-679
68. Utkucu M, Nalbant S, McClusky J, Steacy S, Alptekin Ö (2003) Slip distribution and stress changes associated with the 1999 November 12, Düzce (Turkey) earthquake (M w = 7.1). Geophys J Int 153:229-241. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01904.x
69. Utkucu M, Kanbur Z, Alptekin O, Sunbul F (2007) Mapping b value in the Marmara Region (Nw Turkey): Implications for local recurrence times and seismic hazard International Symposium p 1-9, Kocaeli
70. Wiemer S, Wyss M (1997) Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: An improved technique to calculate recurrence times? J Geophys Res 102:15115-15128. doi: 10.1029/97JB00726
71. Wong HK, Lüdman T, Uluǧ A, Görür N (1995) The Sea of Marmara: A plate boundary in an escape tectonics regime. Tectonophysics 244:231-250. doi: 10.1016/0040-1951(94)00245-5
72. Wyss M, Matsumura S (2002) Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times. Phys Earth Planet Inter 131:173-184. doi: 10.1016/S0031-9201(02)00036-5