Fault interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences

Geophysical Journal International

Volumn 171, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 1185-1197

  Pondard, Nicolas ^a   Armijo, Rolando ^a   King, Geoffrey C P ^a   Meyer, Bertrand ^b   Flerit, Frédéric ^c  

^a INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS   (France)

^b CNRS   (France)

^c LEIBNIZ UNIVERSITY HANNOVER   (Germany)

Author keywords

Earthquake prediction; Istanbul; Marmara; Seismic modelling; Seismo tectonics; Stress distribution

Indexed keywords

CLUSTER ANALYSIS; COULOMB CRITERION; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; FAULT; KINEMATICS; MODELING; SEISMICITY; SEISMOTECTONICS; STRESS ANALYSIS;

ANATOLIA; EURASIA; ISTANBUL [TURKEY]; SEA OF MARMARA; TURKEY;

EID: 34548410720     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03580.x     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Aki, K., 1979. Characterization of barriers on an earthquake fault, J. geophys. Res., 84, 6140-6148.
2. Akyüz, H.S., Hartleb, R., Barka, A., Altunel, E., Sunal, G., Meyer, B. & Armijo, R., 2002. Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 12 November 1999 Düzce earthquake (M 7.1), north Anatolian Fault, Bolu, Turkey, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 92, 61-66.
3. Ambraseys, N.N., 2000. The seismicity of the Marmara Sea area 1800-1899, J. Earthq. Eng., 4, 377-401.
4. Ambraseys, N.N., 2001a. The earthquake of 10 July 1894 in the Gulf of Izmit (Turkey) and its relation to the earthquake of 17 August 1999, J. Seismol., 5, 117-128.
5. Ambraseys, N., 2001b. The earthquake of 1509 in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Revisited, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 91, 1397-1416.
6. Ambraseys, N., 2002. The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea region over the last 2000 years, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 92, 1-18.
7. Ambraseys, N. & Finkel, C., 1990. The Marmara Sea earthquake of 1509, Terra Nova, 2, 1167-1174.
8. Ambraseys, N.N. & Finkel, C., 1991. Long-term seismicity of Istanbul and of the Marmara Sea region, Terra Nova, 3, 527-539.
9. Ambraseys, N. & Finkel, C., 1995. The Seismicity of Turkey and Adjacent Areas 1500-1800, 240 pp., Eren Yayincilik ve Kitapcilik Ltd., Istanbul.
10. Ambraseys, N.N. & Jackson, J.A., 2000. Seismicity of the Sea of Marmara (Turkey) since 1500, Geophys. J. Int., 141.
11. Meyer, B., Hubert, A. & Barka, A., 1999. Westward propagation of the North Anatolian fault into the northern Aegean: Timing and kinematics, Geology, 27, 267-270.
12. Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Navarro, S., King, G. & Barka, A., 2002. Asymmetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: A clue to propagation processes of the north Anatolian Fault?, Terra Nova, 14, 80-86.
13. Armijo, R., Flerit, F., King, G. & Meyer, B., 2003. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics explains the past and present evolution of the Aegean, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 217, 85-95.
14. Armijo, R., et al., 2005. Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 6, Q06009.
15. Atwater, T., 1970. Implications of plate tectonics for the Cenozoic tectonic evolution of western north America, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 81, 3513-3536.
16. Barka, A., 1992. The North Anatolian fault zone, Annales Tectonicae, 6, 164-195.
17. Barka, A., 1996. Slip distribution along the North Anatolian Fault associated with the large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 86, 1238-1254.
18. Barka, A., 1999. The 17 August 1999 Izmit Earthquake, Science, 285, 1858-1859.
19. Barka, A., et al., 2002. The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake M 7.4, North Anatolian fault, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 92, 43-60.
20. Çakir, Z., de Chabalier, J.-B., Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Barka, A. & Peltzer, G., 2003. Coseismic and early postseismic slip associated with the 1999 Izmit earthquake (Turkey), from SAR interferometry and tectonic field observations, Geophys. J. Int., 155, 93-110.
21. Carton, H., 2003. Structure of the Cinarcik Basin (eastern Marmara Sea) from densely-spaced multi-channel reflection profiles, in Lithos Science Report, pp. 69-76, Bullard Laboratories, University of Cambridge, Cambridge.
22. Das, S. & Aki, K., 1977. Fault planes with barriers: A versatile earthquake model, J. geophys. Res., 82, 5658-5670.
23. Flerit, F., Armijo, R., King, G.C.P., Meyer, B. & Barka, A., 2003. Slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity vectors, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 1-7.
24. Flerit, F., Armijo, R., King, G. & Meyer, B., 2004. The mechanical interaction between the propagating North Anatolian Fault and the back-arc extension in the Aegean, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 224, 347-362.
25. Harris, R.A. & Simpson, R.W., 1998. Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure, J. geophys. Res., 103, 24439-24451.
26. Hirn, A. et al., 2003. Elements of structure at crustal scale under the Sea of Marmara from multichannel seismics of the SEISMARMARA survey, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 5.
27. Hubert-Ferrari, A., Barka, A., Jacques, E., Nalbant, S., Meyer, B., Armijo, R., Tapponnier, P. & King, G.C.P., 2000. Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake, Nature, 404, 269-272.
28. Hubert-Ferrari, A., Armijo, R., King, G.C.P., Meyer, B. & Barka, A., 2002. Morphology, displacement, and slip rates along the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, J. geophys. Res., 107.
29. Hubert-Ferrari, A., King, G.C.P., Manighetti, I., Armijo, R., Meyer, B. & Tapponnier, P., 2003. Long-term elasticity in the continental lithosphere: Modelling the Aden ridge propagation and the anatolian extrusion process, Geophys. J. Int., 153, 111-132.
30. Ikeda, Y., Suzuki, Y., Herece, E., Saroglu, F., Isikara, A.M. & Honkura, Y., 1991. Geological evidence for the last two faulting events on the North Anatolian fault zone in the Mudurnu Valley, western Turkey, Tectonophysics, 193, 335-345.
31. Kanamori, H., 1978. Fault mechanics and its relation to earthquake prediction, in 'Use of Seismic Radiation to Infer Source Parameters', Proc Conf. III, edited by U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rept., pp. 78-380.
32. Kasahara, K., 1981. Earthquake Mechanics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
33. King, G., 1983. The accomodation of large strains in the upper lithosphere of the earth and other solids by self-similar fault systems: the Geometrical origin of b-value, Pageoph., 121.
34. King G., & Nabelek, J., 1985. Role of fault bends in the initiation and termination of earthquake rupture, Science, 228.
35. King, G.C.P., Stein, R.S. & Lin, J., 1994. Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 84, 935-953.
36. King, G.C.P. & Cocco, M., 2000. Fault interaction by elastic stress changes: New clues from earthquake sequences, Adv. Geophys., 44, 1-36.
37. King, G.C.P., Hubert-Ferrari, A., Nalbant, S.S., Meyer, B., Armijo, R. & Bowman, D., 2001. Coulomb interactions and the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake, C.R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Science de la Terre et des Planètes, 333, 557-569.
38. Klinger, Y. et al., 2003. Paleoseismic evidence of characteristic slip on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2317-2332.
39. Le Pichon, X. et al., 2001. The active main Marmara fault, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 192, 595-616.
40. Le Pichon, X., Chamot-Rooke, N., Rangin, C. & Sengor, A.M.C., 2003. The North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara, J. geophys. Res., 108.
41. McClusky, S. et al., 2000. Global Positioning System constraints on the plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus, J. geophys. Res., 105, 5695-5719.
42. Nalbant, S.S., Hubert, A. & King, G.C.P., 1998. Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest Turkey and the North Aegean Sea, J. geophys. Res., 103, 24 469-24 486.
43. Nalbant, S.S., McCloskey, J., Steacy, S. & Barka, A.A., 2002. Stress accumulation and increased seismic risk in eastern Turkey, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 195, 291-298.
44. Parke, J.R. et al., 1999. Active faults in the Sea of Marmara, western Turkey, imaged by seismic reflection profiles, Terra Nova, 11, 223-227.
45. Parsons, T., 2004. Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, J. geophys. Res., 109.
46. Parsons, T., Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Barka, A. & Dieterich, J.H., 2000. Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science, 288, 661-665.
47. Pondard, N., 2006. The Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Morphologic and tectonic evolution, fault interactions, and seismic hazard in the region of Istanbul, PhD thesis, The Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, http://www.ipgp.jussieu.fr/docs/publications/ theses/20061009-pondard.pdf
48. Rice, J.R., 1980. The mechanics of earthquake rupture, in Physics of the Earth's Interior, eds A. Dziewonski and E. Boschi pp., 555-649, North Holland, Amsterdam.
49. Richter, C.F., 1958. Elementary Seismology, San Fancisco, CA.
50. Rockwell, T., Barka, A., Dawson, T., Akyüz, H.S. & Thorup, K., 2001. Paleoseismology of the Gaziköy -Saros segment of the North Anatolian fault, northwestern Turkey: Comparaison of the historical and paleoseismic record, implications of regional seismic hazard and models of earthquake recurrence, J. Seismol., 5, 433-448.
51. Scholz, C.H., 1990. The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
52. Sibson, R.H., 1985. Stopping of earthquake ruptures at dilatational jogs, Nature, 316, 248-251.
53. Stein, R.S., 1999. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurence, Nature, 402, 605-609.
54. Stein, R.S., Barka, A.A. & Dieterich, J.H., 1997. Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys. J. Int., 128, 594-604.
55. Taymaz, T., Jackson, J.A. & McKenzie, D.P., 1991. Active tectonics of the north and central Aegean Sea, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 433-490.
56. Toksöz, M.N., Shakal, A.F. & Michael, A.J., 1979. Space-time migration of earthquakes along the North Anatolian fault zone and seismic gaps, Pageoph., 117, 1258-1270.