A meta-analysis of judgment achievement as defined by the lens model equation

Swiss Journal of Psychology

Volumn 68, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 99-112

  Kaufmann, Esther ^a   Athanasou, James A ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MANNHEIM   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY SYDNEY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Judgment achievement; Lens model equation; Meta analysis; Social judgment theory

Indexed keywords

EID: 66649109130     PISSN: 14210185     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1024/1421-0185.68.2.99     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. References marked with an asterisk indicate studies included in the meta-analysis (see Table 1).
2. Armstrong, J.S. (2001). Judgmental bootstrapping: Inferring experts' rules for forecasting. In J.S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of forecasting (pp. 171-192). Philadelphia, PA: Springer.
3. Ashton, A.H. (1982). An empirical study of budget-related predictions of corporate executives. Journal of Accounting Research, 20, 440-449.
4. Ashton, R.H. (2000). A review and analysis of research on the test-retest reliability of professional judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13, 277-294.
5. Athanasou, J.A., & Cooksey, R.W. (2001). Judgment of factors influencing interest: An Australian study. Journal of Vocational Education Research, 26, 1-13.
6. Balzer, W.K., Doherty, M.E., & O'Connor, R. (1989). Effects of cognitive feedback on performance. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 410-433.
7. Bernieri, F.J., Gillis, J.S., Davis, J.M., & Grahe, J.E. (1996). Dyad rapport and the accuracy of its judgment across situations: A lens model analysis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 110-129.
8. Brehmer, A., & Brehmer, B. (1988). What have we learned about human judgment from 30 years of policy capturing. In B. Brehmer & C.R.B. Joyce (Eds.), Human judgment: The SJT view (pp. 75-114). Amsterdam: North Holland.
9. Brehmer, B. (1976). Note on clinical judgment and the formal characteristics of clinical tasks. Psychological Bulletin, 83, 778-782.
10. Brunswik, E. (1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. International encyclopedia of unified science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
11. Brunswik, E. (1955). Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. Psychological Review, 62, 193-216.
12. Camerer, C. (1981). General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 27, 411-422.
13. Cooksey, R.W. (1996). Judgment analysis: Theory, methods, and applications. New York: Academic Press.
14. Cooksey, R.W., Freebody, P., & Davidson, G.R. (1986). Teachers' predictions of children's early reading achievement: An application of social judgment theory. American Educational Research Journal, 23, 41-64.
15. Cooper, R.P., & Werner, P.D. (1990). Predicting violence in newly admitted inmates: A lens model analysis of staff decision making. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17, 431-447.
16. Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1-73.
17. Dhami, M.K., Hertwig, R., & Hoffrage, U. (2004). The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 959-988.
18. Einhorn, H.J. (1974). Cue definition and residual judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 12, 30-49.
19. Gifford, R., Ng, C.F., & Wilkinson, M. (1985). Nonverbal cues in the employment interview: Links between applicant qualities and interviewer judgments. Journal of Applied Psychology, 70, 729-736.
20. Gigerenzer, G. (1991). How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond heuristics and biases. In W. Stroebe & M. Hew-stone (Eds.), European review of social psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 83-115). New York: Wiley.
21. Gigerenzer, G. (1998). Ecological intelligence: An adaptation for frequencies. In D.D. Cummins, & C. Allen (Eds.), The evolution of mind (pp. 9-29). New York: Oxford University Press.
22. Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D.G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103, 650-669.
23. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M., & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
24. Goldberg, L.R. (1976). Man versus model of man: Just how conflicting is that evidence? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16, 13-22.
25. Gorman, C.D., Clover, W.H., & Doherty, M.E. (1978). Can we learn anything about interviewing real people from "interviews" of paper people? Two studies of the external validity of a paradigm. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 22, 165-192.
26. Grove, W.M., Zald, D.H., Lebow, B.S., Snitz, B.E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30.
27. Hammond, K.R., Hursch, C.J., & Todd, F.J. (1964). Analyzing the components of clinical inference. Psychological Review, 71, 438-456.
28. Hammond, K.R., Stewart, T.R., Brehmer, B., & Steinmann, D.O. (1975). Social judgment theory. In M.F. Kaplan & S. Schwartz (Eds.), Human judgment and decision processes (pp. 271-317). New York: Academic Press, Inc.
29. Harvey, N. (1995). Why are judgments less consistent in less predictable task situations? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63, 247-263.
30. Harvey, N., & Harries, C. (2004). Effects of judges' forecasting on their later combination for forecasts for the same outcomes. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 391-409.
31. Holzworth, J. (1999). An annotated bibliography of all published cue probability learning studies. Retrieved March 21, 2005 from http://www.brunswik.org/resources/mcplbib.doc.
32. Hunter, J.E., & Schmidt, F.L. (2004). Methods of meta-analysis: Correcting error and bias in research findings (Vol. 2). New-bury Park, CA: Sage.
33. Hunter, J.E., Schmidt, F.L., & Jackson, G.B. (1982). Meta-analysis: Cumulating research findings across studies. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
34. Hursch, C.J., Hammond, K.R., & Hursch, J.L. (1964). Some methodological considerations in multiple-cue probability learning studies. Psychological Review, 71, 42-60.
35. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. London: Cambridge University Press.
36. Karelaia, N., & Hogarth, R.M. (2008). Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens studies. Psychological Bulletin, 134, 404-426.
37. Kaufmann, E., Sjödahl, L., & Mutz, R. (2007). The idiographic approach in social judgment theory: A review of components of the lens model equation components. International Journal of Idiographic Science, 2.
38. LaDuca, A., Engel, J.D., & Chovan, J.D. (1988). An exploratory study of physicians' clinical judgment: An application of social judgment theory. Evaluation and the Health Professions, 11, 178-200.
39. Lee, J.W., & Yates, J.R (1992). How quantity judgment changes as the number of cues increases: An analytical framework and review. Psychological Bulletin, 112, 363-377.
40. Levi, K. (1989). Expert systems should be more accurate than human experts: Evaluation procedures from human judgment and decision making. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 19, 647-657.
41. MacGregor, D., & Slovic, P. (1986). Graphic representation of judgmental information. Human-Computer Interaction, 2, 179-200.
42. McCleUan, P.G., Bernstein, I.H., & Garbin, C.P. (1984). What makes the Muller a liar: A multiple-cue approach. Perception and Psychophysics, 36, 234-244.
43. Mear, R., & Firth, M. (1987). Assessing the accuracy of financial analyst security return predictions. Accounting Organizations and Society, 12, 331-340.
44. Nystedt, L., & Magnusson, D. (1975). Integration of information in a clinical judgment task, an empirical comparison of six models. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 40, 343-356.
45. Orwin, R.G. (1983). A fail-safe N for effect size in meta-analysis. Journal of Educational Statistics, 8, 157-159.
46. Reynolds, D.A.J., & Gifford, R. (2001). The sounds and sights of intelligence: A lens model channel analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27, 187-200.
47. Roose, J.E., & Doherty, M.E. (1976). Judgment theory applied to the selection of life insurance salesmen. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16, 231-249.
48. Schiefele, U., Krapp, A., & Schreyer, I. (1993). Metaanalyse des Zusammenhangs von Interesse und schulischer Leistung. [A meta-analysis concerning the relation between interest and achievement in school]. Zeitschrift für Entwicklungspsycholo-gie und Pädagogische Psychologie, 25, 120-148.
49. Shanteau, J. (1992). How much information does an expert use? Is it relevant? Acta Psychologica, 81, 75-86.
50. Shanteau, J. (2002). Domain differences in expertise. (Working paper). Kansas State University, KS: Manhattan.
51. Singh, H. (1990). Relative evaluation of subjective and objective measures of expectations formation. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 30, 64-74.
52. Smith, L., Gilhooly, K., & Walker, A. (2003). Factors influencing prescribing decisions in the treatment of depression: A social judgment theory approach. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 17, 51-63.
53. Speroff, T., Connors, A.F., & Dawson, N.V. (1989). Lens model analysis of hemodynamic status in the critically ill. Medical Decision Making, 9, 243-261.
54. Steinmann, D.O., & Doherty, M.E. (1972). A lens model analysis of a bookbag and poker chip experiment: A methodological note. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8, 450-455.
55. Stewart, T.R. (1990). Notes and correspondence: A decomposition of the correlation coefficient and its use in analyzing forecasting skill. American Meteorological Society, 5, 661-666.
56. Stewart, T.R., Roebber, P.J., & Bosart, L.F. (1997). The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 205-219.
57. Szucko, J.J., & Kleinmuntz, B. (1981). Statistical versus clinical lie detection. American Psychologist, 36, 488-496.
58. Tranberg, M., Slane, S., & Ekeberg, S.E. (1993). The relation between interest congruence and satisfaction: A metaanalysis. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 42, 253-264.
59. Tucker, L.R. (1964). A suggested alternative formulation in the developments by Hursch, Hammond, and Hursch and by Hammond, Hursch, and Todd. Psychological Review, 71, 528-530.
60. Werner, P.D., Rose, T.L., Murdach, A.D., & Yesavage, J.A. (1989). Social workers' decision making about the violent client. Social Work Research and Abstracts, 25, 17-20.
61. Werner, P.D., Rose, T.L., & Yesavage, J.A. (1983). Reliability, accuracy, and decision-making strategy in clinical predictions of imminent dangerousness. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 51, 815-825.
62. Wiggins, N., & Kohen, E.S. (1971). Man versus model of man revisited: The forecasting of graduate school success. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 19, 100-106.
63. Wittmann, W.W. (1985). Evaluationsforschung: Aufgaben, Prob-leme und Anwendungen. [Evaluation research: Tasks, problems and applications]. Berlin: Springer.
64. Wright, D. (2005). Meta-analysis of correlation coefficients (Schmidt-Hunter method). Retrieved January 7, 2006 from http://www.sussex.ac.uk/ Users/danw/ESM/SHcorrmeta.SPS.
65. Wright, W.F. (1979). Properties of judgment models in a financial setting. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 23, 73-s85.