Modeling potential demand for supply-constrained drugs: A new hemophilia drug at bayer biological products

Operations Research

Volumn 57, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 19-31

  Stonebraker, Jeffrey S ^a   Keefer, Donald L ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF DENVER   (United States)

^b ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Decision analysis: Applications; Forecasting: Drug demand; Industries: Pharmaceutical

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS; DECISION ANALYSIS: APPLICATIONS; FORECASTING METHODS; HEMOPHILIA A; POTENTIAL DEMANDS; SALES VOLUMES; STRATEGIC DECISIONS; TREATMENT MODALITIES;

APPLICATIONS; DECISION MAKING; DECISION THEORY; DRUG PRODUCTS; FORECASTING; METABOLITES;

COMPETITION;

EID: 61449093656     PISSN: 0030364X     EISSN: 15265463     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1287/opre.1070.0506     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Association of Hemophilia Clinic Directors of Canada. 2003. Canadian Hemophilia Registry. Toronto, Ontario, Canada, http://www.fhs. mcmaster.ca/chr.
2. Beccue, P. 2001. Choosing a development strategy for a new product at Amgen. D. L. Keefer, ed. Practice abstracts. Interfaces 31(5) 62-64.
3. Bodily, S. E., M. S. Allen. 1999. A dialogue process for choosing value-creating strategies. Interfaces 29(6) 16-28.
4. Clemen, R. T. 1989. Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Internat. J. Forecasting 5 559-583.
5. Clemen, R. T. 1996. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd ed. Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
6. Diebold, F. X. 2001. Elements of Forecasting, 2nd ed. South-Western, Cincinnati.
7. Evatt, B. L. 2006. The natural evolution of haemophilia care: Developing and sustaining comprehensive care globally. Haemophilia 12(Suppl. 3) 13-21.
8. Farrugia, A. 2004. Safety and supply of hemophilia products: Worldwide perspectives. Haemophilia 10(4) 327-333.
9. Hacker, M. R., S. Geraghty, M. Manco-Johnson. 2001. Barriers to compliance with prophylaxis therapy in haemophilia. Haemophilia 7(4) 392-396.
10. Johnson, E., N. Petty. 2003. Apimoxin development strategy analysis. D. L. Keefer, ed. Practice abstracts. Interfaces 33(3) 57-59.
11. Keefer, D. L. 1994. Certainty equivalents for three-point discretedistribution approximations. Management Sci. 40(6) 760-773.
12. Keefer, D. L. 1995. Facilities evaluation under uncertainty: Pricing a refinery. Interfaces 25(6) 57-66.
13. Keefer, D. L., S. E. Bodily. 1983. Three-point approximation for continuous random variables. Management Sci. 29(5) 595-609.
14. Keeney, R. L., D. von Winterfeldt. 1991. Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Trans. Engrg. Management 38(3) 191-201.
15. Koumbarelis, E., F. R. Rosendaal, A. Gialeraki, A. Karafoulidou, W. M. P. Noteboom, C. Loizou, C. Panayotopoulou, C. Markakis, T. Mandalaki. 1994. Epidemiology of haemophilia in Greece: An overview. Thrombosis and Haemostasis 72(6) 808-813.
16. Larson, P. J., J. S. Stonebraker, R. E. Amand, M. V. Bauman, A. J. Nagle. 2003. Probabilistic modelling of population-based epidemiology and treatment modalities to determine unconstrained factor VIII demand. J. Thrombosis and Haemostasis 1(Suppl. 1). Abstract P1645. http://www.blackwellpublish. ing.com/isth2003/abstract.asp?id=9829.
17. Lindvall, K., L. Colstrup, I.-M. Wollter, G. Klemenz, K. Loogna, S. Grönhaug, H. Thykjaer. 2006. Compliance with treatment and understanding of own disease in patients with severe and moderate haemophilia. Haemophilia 12(1) 47-51.
18. Linton, J. D. 2004. Determining demand, supply, and pricing for emerging markets based on disruptive process technologies. Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change 71(1-2) 105-120.
19. Lozier, J. N., C. M. Kessler. 2000. Clinical aspects and therapy of hemophilia. R. Hoffman, ed. Hematology: Basic Principles and Practice, Chapter 109, 3rd ed. Churchill Livingstone, Philadelphia, 1883-1904.
20. Market Research Bureau, Inc. 2001. The plasma fractions market in Asia and Pacific-2000. Report, Market Research Bureau, Inc., Orange, CT.
21. Market Research Bureau, Inc. 2003a. The plasma fractions market in Europe-2002. Report, Market Research Bureau, Inc., Orange, CT.
22. Market Research Bureau, Inc. 2003b. The plasma fractions market in the United States-2002. Report, Market Research Bureau, Inc., Orange, CT.
23. McNamee, P., J. Celona. 2001. Decision Analysis for the Professional, 3rd ed. SmartOrg, Inc., Menlo Park, CA.
24. Merkhofer, M. W. 1987. Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experiences, and insights. IEEE Trans. Systems, Man, Cybernetics SMC-17(5) 741-752.
25. Poland, W. B. 2004. Balancing drug safety and efficacy for a go/no-go decision. D. L. Keefer, ed. Practice abstracts. Interfaces 34(2) 113-116.
26. Poland, W. B., R. Wada. 2001. Combining drug-disease and economic modeling to inform drug development decisions. Drug Discovery Today 6(22) 1165-1170.
27. Shapiro, A. D. 2003. Why is primary prophylaxis underutilized in the United States? Haemophilia 9(6) 670-672.
28. Sharpe, P., T. Keelin. 1998. How SmithKline Beecham makes better resource-allocation decisions. Harvard Bus. Rev. 76(March-April) 45-57.
29. Shephard, G. G., C. W. Kirkwood. 1994. Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: A case study of analyst/manager interaction. IEEE Trans. Engrg. Management 41(4) 414-425.
30. Skinner, M. W. 2006. Treatment for all: A vision for the future. Haemophilia 12(Suppl. 3) 169-173.
31. Soucie, J. M., B. Evatt, D. Jackson. 1998. The hemophilia surveillance system project investigators. Occurrence of hemophilia in the United States. Amer. J. Hematology 59(4) 288-294.
32. Spetzler, C. S., C.-A. S. Staël von Holstein. 1975. Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Sci. 22(3) 340-352.
33. Stonebraker, J. S. 2002. How Bayer makes decisions to develop new drugs. Interfaces 32(6) 77-90.
34. Stonebraker, J. S., R. E. Amand, A. J. Nagle. 2003. A country-by-country comparison of FVIII concentrate consumption and economic capacity for the global haemophilia community. Haemophilia 9(3) 245-250.
35. Syncopation Software Limited. 2004. DPL 6.0 Professional. London.
36. Triemstra, M., F. R. Rosendaal, C. Smit, H. M. Van der Ploeg, E. Briët. 1995. Mortality in patients with hemophilia: Changes in a Dutch population from 1986 to 1992 and 1973 to 1986. Ann. Internal Medicine 123(1.1) 823-827.
37. United Kingdom Haemophilia Centre Doctors' Organisation. 2003. National Haemophilia Database: Report on the Annual Returns for 2000 and 2001. Oxford, UK.
38. United Nations. 2002. World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. New York, http://esa.un.org/unpp.
39. United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2000. CDC Growth Charts for the United States. Atlanta. http://www. cdc.gov.
40. United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2004. Report on the Universal, Data Collection Program (UDC), Vol. 6 No. 1. Atlanta, http://www.cdc.gov.
41. United States Food and Drug Administration. 2006. Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research frequently asked questions. Rockville, MD. http://www.fda.gov/cber/faq.htm.
42. Wight, J., S. Paisley. 2003. The epidemiology of inhibitors in haemophilia A: A systematic review. Haemophilia 9(4) 418-435.
43. Winkler, R. L., R. T. Clemen. 2004. Multiple experts vs. multiple methods. Decision Anal. 1(3) 167-176.
44. World Bank Group. 2004. World Development Indicators 2004. Washington, D.C. http://www.worldbank.org.
45. World Federation of Hemophilia. 1999. WFH Global Survey on Hemophilia, 1999 ed. World Federation of Hemophilia, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
46. World Federation of Hemophilia. 2000. WFH Global Survey on Hemophilia, 2000 ed. World Federation of Hemophilia, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
47. World Federation of Hemophilia. 2001. Report on the WFH Global Survey 2001. World Federation of Hemophilia, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
48. World Federation of Hemophilia. 2002. Report on the WFH Global Survey 2002. World Federation of Hemophilia, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
49. World Federation of Hemophilia. 2004. Report on the WFH Global Survey 2003. World Federation of Hemophilia, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.