메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 61, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 194-209

Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; PERTURBATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 61349158711     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00385.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (42)

References (58)
  • 1
    • 0000884631 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of dynamical constraints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: Low-order perfect model results
    • Anderson, J. L. 1997. The impact of dynamical constraints on the selection of initial conditions for ensemble predictions: Low-order perfect model results. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125, 2969-2983.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 2969-2983
    • Anderson, J.L.1
  • 2
    • 24144438219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Test of a poor man's ensemble prediction system for short-range probability forecasting
    • Arribas, A., Robertson, K. B. and Mylne, K. R. 2005. Test of a poor man's ensemble prediction system for short-range probability forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1825-1839.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1825-1839
    • Arribas, A.1    Robertson, K.B.2    Mylne, K.R.3
  • 3
    • 0031789008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Singular vectors and estimates of the analysis-error covariance metric
    • Barkmeijer, J., van Gijzen, M. and Bouttier, F. 1998. Singular vectors and estimates of the analysis-error covariance metric. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 1695-1713.
    • (1998) Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.124 , pp. 1695-1713
    • Barkmeijer, J.1    van Gijzen, M.2    Bouttier, F.3
  • 4
    • 0032717727 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Barkmeijer, J., Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N. 1999. 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2333-2351.
    • (1999) Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 2333-2351
    • Barkmeijer, J.1    Buizza, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 6
    • 57149141530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Independent estimations of the asymptotic variability in an ensemble forecast system
    • Bengtsson, L. K., Magnusson, L. and Källén, E. 2008. Independent estimations of the asymptotic variability in an ensemble forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 4105-4112.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 4105-4112
    • Bengtsson, L.K.1    Magnusson, L.2    Källén, E.3
  • 7
    • 0033149819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble transformation and adaptive mbservations
    • Bishop, C. H. and Toth, Z. 1999. Ensemble transformation and adaptive mbservations. J. Atmos. Sci 56, 1748-1765.
    • (1999) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.56 , pp. 1748-1765
    • Bishop, C.H.1    Toth, Z.2
  • 8
    • 0242710772 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability as a function of scale
    • Boer, G. J. 2003. Predictability as a function of scale. Atmos.-Ocean 41, 203-215.
    • (2003) Atmos.-Ocean , vol.41 , pp. 203-215
    • Boer, G.J.1
  • 9
    • 33748658227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of error breeding, singular vectors, random perturbations and ensemble Kalman filter perturbation strategies on a simple model
    • Bowler, N. 2006. Comparison of error breeding, singular vectors, random perturbations and ensemble Kalman filter perturbation strategies on a simple model. Tellus 58A, 538-548.
    • (2006) Tellus , vol.58 A , pp. 538-548
    • Bowler, N.1
  • 11
    • 53649084215 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of a 51-member low-resolution (TL399L62) ensemble with a 6-member high-resolution (TL799L91) lagged-forecast ensemble
    • Buizza, R. 2008. Comparison of a 51-member low-resolution (TL399L62) ensemble with a 6-member high-resolution (TL799L91) lagged-forecast ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 3343-3362.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 3343-3362
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 12
    • 0033403384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Buizza, R., Miller, M. and Palmer, T. 1999. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887-2908.
    • (1999) Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 2887-2908
    • Buizza, R.1    Miller, M.2    Palmer, T.3
  • 13
    • 12944288520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems
    • and co-authors
    • Buizza, R., Houtekamer, P. L., Toth, Z., Pellerin, G., Wei, M. and co-authors. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1067-1097.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1067-1097
    • Buizza, R.1    Houtekamer, P.L.2    Toth, Z.3    Pellerin, G.4    Wei, M.5
  • 14
    • 27644571998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable
    • Candille, G. and Talagrand, O. 2005. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 2131-2150.
    • (2005) Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.131 , pp. 2131-2150
    • Candille, G.1    Talagrand, O.2
  • 15
    • 34848920881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On some aspects of the definition of initial conditions for ensemble prediction
    • Descamps, L. and Talagrand, O. 2007. On some aspects of the definition of initial conditions for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 3260-3272.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 3260-3272
    • Descamps, L.1    Talagrand, O.2
  • 16
    • 0003889767 scopus 로고
    • Estimating the covariance matrices of analysis and forecast error in variational data assimilation
    • ECMWF
    • Fisher, M. and Courtier, P. 1995. Estimating the covariance matrices of analysis and forecast error in variational data assimilation, Technical Memorandum 220, ECMWF.
    • (1995) Technical Memorandum , vol.220
    • Fisher, M.1    Courtier, P.2
  • 17
    • 34548788500 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discussion on '4D-Var or EnKF?'
    • Gustafsson, N. 2007. Discussion on '4D-Var or EnKF?'. Tellus 59A, 774-777.
    • (2007) Tellus , vol.59 A , pp. 774-777
    • Gustafsson, N.1
  • 18
    • 27744494106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accounting for the error due to unresolved scales in ensemble data assimilation: A comparison of different approches
    • Hamill, T. H. and Whitaker, J. S. 2005. Accounting for the error due to unresolved scales in ensemble data assimilation: A comparison of different approches. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 3132-3147.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 3132-3147
    • Hamill, T.H.1    Whitaker, J.S.2
  • 21
    • 0036326746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks
    • Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I. 2002. New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1041-1061.
    • (2002) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.59 , pp. 1041-1061
    • Hoskins, B.J.1    Hodges, K.I.2
  • 22
  • 24
    • 61349167908 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model error respresentation in an operational ensemble Kalman filter
    • in press
    • Houtekamer, P. L., Mitchell, H. and Deng, X. 2008. Model error respresentation in an operational ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev. in press.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev.
    • Houtekamer, P.L.1    Mitchell, H.2    Deng, X.3
  • 26
    • 0024189601 scopus 로고
    • The influence of isolated observations on short-range numerical weather forecasts
    • Källén, E. and Huang, X.-Y. 1988. The influence of isolated observations on short-range numerical weather forecasts. Tellus 40A, 324-336.
    • (1988) Tellus , vol.40 A , pp. 324-336
    • Källén, E.1    Huang, X.-Y.2
  • 27
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. 1974. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1974, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.1974 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.1
  • 29
    • 0019144563 scopus 로고
    • A simple approximate result for the maximum growth rate of baroclinic instabilities
    • Lindzen, R. S. and Farrell, B. 1980. A simple approximate result for the maximum growth rate of baroclinic instabilities. J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 1648-1654.
    • (1980) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.37 , pp. 1648-1654
    • Lindzen, R.S.1    Farrell, B.2
  • 30
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N. 1963. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 31
    • 0001036009 scopus 로고
    • A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model
    • Lorenz, E. N. 1965. A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus 67, 321-333.
    • (1965) Tellus , vol.67 , pp. 321-333
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 32
    • 0000853495 scopus 로고
    • The predictability of a flow which posses many scales of motion
    • Lorenz, E. N. 1969. The predictability of a flow which posses many scales of motion. Tellus 21, 289-307.
    • (1969) Tellus , vol.21 , pp. 289-307
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 33
    • 0020347854 scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model
    • Lorenz, E. N. 1982. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus 34, 505-513.
    • (1982) Tellus , vol.34 , pp. 505-513
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 35
    • 54949136699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison between singular vectors and breeding vectors as initial perturbations of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Magnusson, L., Leutbecher, M. and Källén, E. 2008. Comparison between singular vectors and breeding vectors as initial perturbations of ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 4092-4104.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 4092-4104
    • Magnusson, L.1    Leutbecher, M.2    Källén, E.3
  • 36
    • 44449090456 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the ensemble transform analysis perturbation scheme at NRL
    • McLay, J. G., Bishop, C. H. and Reynolds, C. A. 2008. Evaluation of the ensemble transform analysis perturbation scheme at NRL. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 1093-1108.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 1093-1108
    • McLay, J.G.1    Bishop, C.H.2    Reynolds, C.A.3
  • 37
    • 0027430506 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations
    • Mureau, R., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. 1993. Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 119, 299-323.
    • (1993) Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.119 , pp. 299-323
    • Mureau, R.1    Molteni, F.2    Palmer, T.3
  • 38
    • 0000918735 scopus 로고
    • A new vector partition of the pobability score
    • Murphy, A. H. 1973. A new vector partition of the pobability score. J. Appl. Meteorol. 12, 595-600.
    • (1973) J. Appl. Meteorol. , vol.12 , pp. 595-600
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 39
    • 0027789670 scopus 로고
    • Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz Model
    • Palmer, T. N. 1993. Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz Model. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 49-66.
    • (1993) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 49-66
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 40
    • 0022830690 scopus 로고
    • Structural determinism of linear baroclinic waves and simple nonlinear equilibration
    • Reinhold, B. 1986. Structural determinism of linear baroclinic waves and simple nonlinear equilibration. J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 1484-1504.
    • (1986) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.43 , pp. 1484-1504
    • Reinhold, B.1
  • 41
    • 57149125966 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of stochastic convection on the ensemble transform
    • Reynolds, C. A., Teixeira, J. and McLay, J. G. 2008. Impact of stochastic convection on the ensemble transform. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 4517-4526.
    • (2008) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.136 , pp. 4517-4526
    • Reynolds, C.A.1    Teixeira, J.2    McLay, J.G.3
  • 42
    • 0036612028 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory
    • Roulston, M. S. and Smith, L. A. 2002. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1653-1660.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1653-1660
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 43
    • 0024838696 scopus 로고
    • Dynamical predictability in a simple general circulation model: Average error growth
    • Schubert, S. D. and Suarez, M. 1989. Dynamical predictability in a simple general circulation model: Average error growth. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 353-370.
    • (1989) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.46 , pp. 353-370
    • Schubert, S.D.1    Suarez, M.2
  • 44
    • 37549006774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A local ensemble transform Kalman filter data assimilation system for the NCEP global model
    • and co-authors
    • Szunyogh, I., Kostelich, E. J., Gyarmati, G., Kalnay, E., Hunt, B. R., and co-authors. 2008. A local ensemble transform Kalman filter data assimilation system for the NCEP global model. Tellus 60A, 113-130.
    • (2008) Tellus , vol.60 A , pp. 113-130
    • Szunyogh, I.1    Kostelich, E.J.2    Gyarmati, G.3    Kalnay, E.4    Hunt, B.R.5
  • 47
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP: The generation of perturbation
    • Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1993. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP: The generation of perturbation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 48
    • 0000593274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1997. Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev. 125, 3297-3319.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 3297-3319
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 49
    • 0027829852 scopus 로고
    • Impact of transient error growth on global average predictability measures
    • Trevisan, A. 1993. Impact of transient error growth on global average predictability measures. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1016-1028.
    • (1993) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.50 , pp. 1016-1028
    • Trevisan, A.1
  • 50
    • 0024258833 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of the predictability of low-frequency variability with a spectral general circulation model
    • Tribbia, J. J. and Baumhefner, D. P. 1988. Estimates of the predictability of low-frequency variability with a spectral general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 2306-2317.
    • (1988) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.45 , pp. 2306-2317
    • Tribbia, J.J.1    Baumhefner, D.P.2
  • 52
    • 0037980372 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes
    • Wang, X. and Bishop, C. 2003. A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes. J. Atmos. Sci. 60, 1140-1158.
    • (2003) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.60 , pp. 1140-1158
    • Wang, X.1    Bishop, C.2
  • 53
    • 3943069649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Which is better, an ensemble of positive-negative pairs or a centered spherical simplex ensemble?
    • Wang, X., Bishop, C. and Julier, S. 2004. Which is better, an ensemble of positive-negative pairs or a centered spherical simplex ensemble? Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 1590-1605.
    • (2004) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.132 , pp. 1590-1605
    • Wang, X.1    Bishop, C.2    Julier, S.3
  • 54
    • 0141459914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new measure of ensemble performance: Perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA)
    • Wei, M. and Toth, Z. 2003. A new measure of ensemble performance: perturbation versus error correlation analysis (PECA). Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 1549-1565.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 1549-1565
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2
  • 55
    • 37549070304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global ensemble forecast systems
    • Wei, M., Toth, Z., Wobus, R. and Zhu, Y. 2008. Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global ensemble forecast systems. Tellus 60A, 62-79.
    • (2008) Tellus , vol.60 A , pp. 62-79
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2    Wobus, R.3    Zhu, Y.4
  • 56
    • 0031436319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields
    • Wilks, D. S. 1997. Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. J. Clim. 10, 65-82.
    • (1997) J. Clim. , vol.10 , pp. 65-82
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 58
    • 27744561578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through short-range ensemble forecasts
    • Zhang, F. 2005. Dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance of a winter cyclone estimated through short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 2876-2893.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 2876-2893
    • Zhang, F.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.