Probability assessment with response times and confidence in perception and knowledge

Acta Psychologica

Volumn 130, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 103-114

  Petrusic, William M ^a   Baranski, Joseph V ^b  

^a CARLETON UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b DEFENCE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Calibration; Confidence; Decision time; Overconfidence; Probability assessment; Psychophysics; Response time theories

Indexed keywords

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; ARTICLE; COGNITION; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; PERCEPTIVE DISCRIMINATION; PHYSIOLOGY; PROBABILITY; REACTION TIME; SELF EVALUATION; STUDENT; TASK PERFORMANCE; VISION;

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; COGNITION; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; DECISION MAKING; DISCRIMINATION (PSYCHOLOGY); HUMANS; PROBABILITY; REACTION TIME; SELF ASSESSMENT (PSYCHOLOGY); STUDENTS; TASK PERFORMANCE AND ANALYSIS; VISUAL PERCEPTION;

EID: 58549097648     PISSN: 00016918     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2008.10.008     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Audley R.J. A stochastic model for individual choice behavior. Psychological Review 67 (1960) 1-15
2. Audley R.J., and Pike A.R. Some alternative stochastic models of choice. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology 18 (1965) 207-225
3. Baranski J.V., and Petrusic W.M. The calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments. Perception & Psychophysics 55 (1994) 412-428
4. Baranski J.V., and Petrusic W.M. On the calibration of knowledge and perception. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology 49 (1995) 397-407
5. Baranski J.V., and Petrusic W.M. Probing the locus of confidence judgments: Experiments on the time to determine confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 24 (1998) 929-945
6. Baranski J.V., and Petrusic W.M. Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination. Perception & Psychophysics 61 (1999) 1369-1383
7. Baranski J.V., and Petrusic W.M. Testing architectures of the decision-confidence relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology 55 (2001) 195-206
8. Baranski J.V., and Petrusic W.M. Adaptive processes in perceptual comparisons: Effects of change in the global difficulty context. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 29 (2003) 658-674
9. Bar-tal Y., Sarid A., and Kishon-Rabin L. A test of the overconfidence phenomenon using audio signals. Journal of General Psychology 128 (2001) 76-80
10. Branthwaite A. A note comparing three measures of subjective probability, their validity and reliability. Acta Psychologica 38 (1974) 337-342
11. Brown G.D.A., McCormack T., Smith M., and Stewart N. Identification and bisection of temporal durations and tone frequencies: Common models for temporal and non-temporal stimuli. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 31 (2005) 919-938
12. Cohen J., Hansel C.E.M., and Walker D.B. Time taken to decide as a measure of subjective probability. Acta Psychologica 17 (1960) 177-183
13. Erev I., Wallsten T.S., and Budescu D.V. Simultaeous over- and underconfidence. The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review 101 (1994) 519-527
14. Fechner, G. (1965). Elements of psychophysics (H.E. Adler, Trans.). New York: Harper & Row (Original work published 1860).
15. Harvey N. Confidence in judgment. Trends in Cognitive Science 1 (1997) 78-82
16. Heath R.A. Random-walk and accumulator models of psychophysical discrimination: A critical evaluation. Perception 13 (1984) 57-65
17. Henmon V.A.C. The relation of the time of a judgment to its accuracy. Psychological Review 18 (1911) 186-201
18. Irwin F.W., Smith W.A.S., and Mayfield J.F. Test of two theories of decision in an "expanded judgment" situation. Journal of Experimental Psychology 51 (1956) 261-268
19. Johnson D.M. Confidence and speed in the two-category judgment. Archives of Psychology 241 (1939) 1-52
20. Juslin P., and Olsson H. Thurstonian and Brunswikian origins of uncertainty in judgment: A sampling model of confidence in sensory discrimination. Psychological Review 104 (1997) 344-366
21. Juslin P., Winman A., and Olsson H. Naïve empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 384-396
22. Kellogg W.N. The time of judgment in psychometric measures. American Journal of Psychology 43 (1931) 65-86
23. Keren G. Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica 77 (1991) 217-273
24. Kvidera S., and Koutstaal W. Confidence and decision-type under matched stimulus conditions: Overconfidence in perceptual but not conceptual decisions. Journal of Behaviorial Decision Making 21 (2008) 253-281
25. Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B., and Phillips L.D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 306-334
26. Link S.W. The wave theory of difference and similarity (1992), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, N.J.
27. Link S.W., and Heath R. A sequential theory of psychological discrimination. Psychometrika 40 (1975) 77-105
28. Luce R.D. Response times: Their role in inferring elementary mental organization (1986), Oxford University Press, New York
29. Murphy A.H. A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology 12 (1973) 595-600
30. Peirce C.S., and Jastrow J. On small differences in sensation. Memoirs of the National Academy of Sciences 3 (1884) 73-83
31. Petrusic W.M., and Baranski J.V. Context, feedback, and the calibration and resolution of confidence in perceptual judgments. American Journal of Psychology 110 (1997) 543-572
32. Petrusic W.M., and Baranski J.V. Judging confidence influences decision processing in comparative judgments. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 10 (2003) 177-183
33. Petrusic W.M., and Cloutier P. Metacognition in psychophysical judgement: An unfolding view of mental workload. Perception & Psychophysics 51 (1992) 485-499
34. Petrusic W.M., and Jamieson D.G. Studying preferential choice without stable probability estimates: Temporal transitivity analyses. Acta Psychologica 40 (1976) 375-383
35. Ratcliff R. A theory of memory retrieval. Psychological Review 85 (1978) 59-108
36. Ratcliff R., and Rouder J.N. Modeling response times for two-choice decisions. Psychological Science 9 (1998) 347-356
37. Ratcliff R., and Smith P.L. A comparison of sequential sampling models for two-choice reaction time. Psychological Review 111 (2004) 333-367
38. Smith P.L., and Vickers D. The accumulator model of two-choice discrimination. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 32 (1988) 135-168
39. Smith P.L., and Vickers D. Modeling evidence accumulation with partial loss in expanded judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 15 (1989) 797-815
40. Townsend J.T., and Ashby F.G. Stochastic modeling of elementary psychological processes (1983), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
41. Usher M., and McClelland J.L. The time course of perceptual choice. The leaky, competing accumulator model. Psychological Review 108 (2001) 550-592
42. Usher M., and Zakay D. A neural-network model for attribute-based decision-processes. Cognitive Science 17 (1993) 349-396
43. Van Zandt T. ROC curves and confidence judgments in recognition memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 26 (2000) 582-600
44. Van Zandt T., and Moldonado-Molina M.M. Response reversals in recognition memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 30 (2004) 1147-1166
45. Vickers D. Decision processes in visual perception (1979), Academic Press, New York
46. Vickers D., and Packer J.S. Effects of alternating set for speed versus accuracy on response times, accuracy, and confidence in a unidimensional discrimination task. Acta Psychologica 50 (1982) 179-197
47. Vickers D., and Pietsch A. Decision-making and memory: A critique of Juslin & Olsson's (1997) sampling model of sensory discrimination. Psychological Review 108 (2001) 789-804
48. Vickers D., Burt J., Smith P., and Brown M. Experimental paradigms emphasizing state or process limitations: I. Effects on speed-accuracy tradeoffs. Acta Psychologica 59 (1985) 129-161
49. Vickers D., Smith P., Burt J., and Brown M. Experimental paradigms emphasizing state or process limitations: II. Effects on confidence. Acta Psychologica 59 (1985) 163-193
50. Volkmann J. The relation of the time of judgment to the certainty of judgment. Psychological Bulletin 31 (1934) 672-673
51. Wearden J.H. Categorical scaling of stimulus duration by humans. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavioral Processes 21 (1995) 318-330
52. Wright G., and Ayton P. Decision time, subjective probability, and task difficulty. Memory & Cognition 16 (1988) 176-185
53. Yaniv I., Yates J.F., and Smith J.E.K. Measures of discrimination skill in probabilistic judgment. Psychological Bulletin 110 (1991) 611-617
54. Yates J.F. External correspondence - decompositions of the mean probability score. Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes 30 (1982) 132-156
55. Yates J.F. Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events - An extension of the covariance decomposition. Organization Behavior and Human Decision Processes 41 (1988) 281-299
56. Yates J.F. Judgment and decision making (1990), Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs
57. Zakay D., and Tuvia R. Choice latency times as determinants of post-decisional confidence. Acta Psychologica 98 (1998) 103-115