India's ambitions in Burma: More frustration than success?

Asian Survey

Volumn 48, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 936-957

  Egreteau, Renaud ^a  

^a Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique   (France)

Author keywords

Burma Myanmar; China threat; India; India Burma relations; Indian foreign policy

Indexed keywords

FOREIGN POLICY; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; MILITARY INTERVENTION; STRATEGIC APPROACH;

ASIA; DELHI; EURASIA; INDIA; MYANMAR; NEW DELHI; SOUTH ASIA; SOUTHEAST ASIA;

EID: 58249089450     PISSN: 00044687     EISSN: 1533838X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1525/as.2008.48.6.936     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Embassy of India (Yangon), India-Myanmar Cooperation: New and Innovative Opportunities (on the Occasion of the "Made in India Show," Myanmar, 19-22 February 2004) (Yangon, Burma: L. B. Associates, 2004), p. 11.
2. Democratic rule in Burma ended in 1962 when General Ne Win led a military coup d'état; he subsequently ruled for 26 years. After the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, a younger generation of Burmese generals staged another coup, declared martial law, and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to govern Burma. The SLORC was renamed the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in 1997 and was still led by General Than Shwe in 2008.
3. In this article, I use the English terms "Burma" and "Rangoon" instead of the vernacular terms of "Myanmar" and "Yangon" for the ease of linguistic simplicity, and without any political connotation or judgment.
4. For a detailed analysis, see Nalini Ranjan Chakravarti, The Indian Minority in Burma: The Rise and Decline of an Immigrant Community (London: Oxford University Press, 1971).
5. Bertie Reginald Pearn, A History of Rangoon (Rangoon: American Baptist Mission Press, 1939), p. 290
6. and Walter Sadgun Desai, India and Burma: A Study (Calcutta: Orient Longman, 1952), p. 28.
7. This overall assessment is based on many personal discussions with Indian academics, politicians, and diplomats as well as with Burmese Indians who fled Burma in the 1960s settle back in India. Interviews conducted in India from 2002 to 2007.
8. For example, see Rajshekhar, Myanmar's Nationalist Movement and India, 1906-1948 Delhi: South Asian Publishers, 2006).
9. Robert A. Holmes, "Burmese Domestic Policy: The Politics of Burmanization," Asian Survey 7:3 (March 1967), pp. 188-97.
10. The new Burmese junta (SLORC) dropped the socialist and autarchic policy instituted by General Ne Win since 1962, opting instead for a more liberal economic and diplomatic engagement with the world. China was one of the few countries that responded positively to the SLORC's new geopolitical approach.
11. India's northeast region currently consists of seven separate states: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura. This entire region is collectively, and commonly, referred to as "the Northeast."
12. Renaud Egreteau, "Instability at the Gate: India's Troubled North East and Its External Connections," Centre de Sciences Humaines (New Delhi), Occasional Paper, no. 16 (2006).
13. Burma comprises seven administrative "states," dominated by national ethnic minorities (Kachin, Chin, Rakhine, Mon, Karen/Kayin, Karenni/Kayah, and Shan, respectively), and seven "divisions" with a clear majority Burman population.
14. Bertil Lintner, Burma in Revolt: Opium and Insurgency since 1948 (Chiang Mai, Thailand: Silkworm Books, 1999), p. 395.
15. Personal interviews in New Delhi with pro-democracy Burman/Bama'r activists, 2002-07; former leaders of the Kachin Independence Organization, April 28, 2003; and the Chin National Front (CNF), March 29, 2006.
16. The acronym BIMST-EC became the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation when Bhutan and Nepal joined the club in 2004.
17. Egreteau, Wooing the Generals: India's New Burma Policy (New Delhi: Authors Press, 2004), pp. 102-12. Since 1992, China has extended its influence through cooperation with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprising its own Yunnan Province in addition to Burma, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand.
18. Embassy of India (Yangon), India-Myanmar Cooperation, p. 15.
19. For details, see Tin Maung Maung Than, "Myanmar Energy Sector: Banking on Natural Gas," Southeast Asian Affairs (2005), pp. 257-89
20. and Marie-Carine Lall, "Indo-Myanmar Relations in the Era of Pipeline Diplomacy," Contemporary Southeast Asia 28:3 (December 2006), pp. 424-46.
21. John W. Garver, "Asymmetrical Indian and Chinese Threat Perceptions," in Sumit Ganguly (ed.), India as an Emerging Power (London: Frank Cass, 2003), pp. 109-34.
22. Pan Qi, "Opening the Southwest: An Expert Opinion," Beijing Review 28:35 (September 2, 1985), pp. 22-23.
23. Bertil Lintner, "Myanmar's Chinese Connection," International Defence Review 27:11 (November 1994), p. 24. Before the SLORC's coup, the Tatmadaw's strength was only about 185,000 men.
24. Dinesh Kumar, "Sino-Myanmar Ties Irk Delhi," Times of India, November 20, 1992.
25. See Mohan J. Malik, "Sino-Indian Rivalry in Myanmar: Implications for Regional Security," Contemporary Southeast Asia 16:2 (September 1994), pp. 137-56
26. and Andrew Selth, "Burma and the Strategic Competition between China and India," Journal of Strategic Studies 19:2 (June 1996), pp. 213-30.
27. For example, see Baladas Ghoshal, "Trends in China-Burma Relations," China Report 30:2 (April-June 1994), pp. 187-202
28. and Udai Bhanu Singh, "Recent Trends in Relations between Myanmar and China," Strategic Analysis 18:1 (April 1995), pp. 61-72.
29. "India and Myanmar Look to Bury Years of Distrust," Jane's Defence Weekly, January 18, 2000.
30. NSCN-K includes mainly Naga rebels from Burma.
31. Arijit Mazumdar, "Bhutan's Military Action against Indian Insurgents," Asian Survey 45:4 (July-August 2005), pp. 566-80.
32. Ministry of External Affairs (India), Joint Statement Issued on the Occasion of the State Visit of H. E. Senior-General Than Shwe, Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council of the Union of Myanmar to India (25-29 October 2004) (New Delhi), October 29, 2004.
33. In 2002, an Indian official from the Ministry of External Affairs claimed that India was sending only "non-lethal" military equipment to Burma. Telephone interview with author, New Delhi, July 22, 2002.
34. "India Swaps Arms for Co-operation with Myanmar," Jane's Defence Weekly, October 11, 2006.
35. For details and discussion, see Rahul Bedi, "India Transfers More Defenders to Myanmar," ibid., May 16, 2007
36. and Amnesty International, Indian Helicopters for Burma: Making a Mockery of Embargoes, ASA 20/014/2007, July 16, 2007, available at .
37. For details, see Ministry of Defence (India), Annual Report 2003-04 (New Delhi: Government of India, 2004), p. 12.
38. Interview with anonymous source, Embassy of India, Rangoon, March 10, 2006.
39. Renaud Egreteau, "Militant Mire: Battling Insurgency in Northeast India," Jane's Intelligence Review 20:2 (February 2008), pp. 18-23.
40. Interviews with Burmese activists exiled in Imphal (Manipur), and of Meithei and Naga scholars and students working along the Indo-Burmese border, Manipur University, Imphal, Manipur, India, March 2005.
41. Interviews with anonymous sources, Embassy of India, Rangoon, March 21 and November 9, 2007.
42. Off the record, many Indian intelligence officers have expressed their frustration at the lack of successful achievements in the area of coordinated counterinsurgency. Personal discussions with various Indian intelligence officers (both active or retired) in Delhi, Rangoon, and Bangkok between 2005 and 2007.
43. Those released included the UNLF-M leader himself, Rajkumar Meghen. Personal discussion with Subir Bhaumik (BBC correspondent), Guwahati, India, September 11, 2004.
44. Embassy of India (Yangon), Joint Statement on the Visit to Myanmar by H. E. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Vice-President of the Republic of India Yangon, November 4, 2003.
45. "Indo-Myanmar Trade Below Target in 2006-07," Economic Times (India), May 3, 2007
46. and "India-Myanmar Border Trade All Set to Improve," Financial Express (India), April 3, 2008. See also the website of the Indian Embassy in Burma available at , accessed on November 3, 2008.
47. Personal discussion with Naresh Kumar Dinodiya, president of the Indians of Myanmar Association, Rangoon, January 25, 2005.
48. Interview with Mak Patel, consultant for the Indian Ministry of Energy in Rangoon, Rangoon, March 6, 2006. Mr. Patel was born in Burma into a Gujarati family. He fled the country in 1970 but has been an important actor in establishing increased bilateral energy cooperation between India and Burma.
49. Interview with the commercial counselor, Embassy of India, Rangoon, January 28, 2005.
50. Interview with C. Murali, president of the India-Myanmar Business Club, Rangoon, January 27, 2005.
51. Embassy of India (Yangon), India-Myanmar Cooperation, p. 16.
52. Interview with an anonymous Korean diplomat, Embassy of South Korea, Rangoon, January 27, 2005.
53. "PetroChina Seeks Myanmar Gas Deal," Myanmar Times, January 16-22, 2006
54. and "Myanmar Confirms Agreement to Sell Gas to China," Reuters, August 16, 2007.
55. "Myanmar-China Pipelines Yet to Be Approved," Reuters, March 6, 2008.
56. China crucially vetoed a U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Burma on its human rights record in January 2007. Burma's decision to grant China a larger portion of its still under-exploited energy market can be interpreted as a reward for Beijing's diplomatic support of Burma on the international stage amid pressures to democratize. Also, see Gideon Lundholm, "China Trumps India in Myanmar Gas Stakes," Asia Times, September 11, 2007.
57. "ONGC-Videsh Wins 3 Blocks in Myanmar," Business Line (New Delhi), September 23, 2007.
58. "Myanmar Burning, MEA Told Deora: We Need to Visit but Keep It Low-Key," Indian Express (New Delhi), September 27, 2007.
59. Personal discussion with H. E. Rajiv K. Bhatia, ambassador of India to Burma (2002-05), Rangoon, May 10, 2004. Also see "India Says No China Defense Posts on Myanmar Island," Reuters, August 24, 2005.
60. For example, see William Ashton, "Chinese Naval Base: Many Rumors, Few Facts," Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (June-July 1993), p. 25
61. William Ashton, "Chinese Bases in Burma: Fact or Fiction?" Jane's Intelligence Review 7:2 (February 1995), pp. 84 -87
62. and Andrew Selth, Chinese Military Bases in Burma: The Explosion of a Myth, Griffith Asia Institute Regional Outlook, 10 (Griffith University, 2007), available at .
63. Personal fieldwork in Rangoon, Kyaikkami (in Mon State), Sittwe and Kyaukphyu (in Arakan State), October 2005-March 2007.
64. "Indian Fleet Calling Myanmar Port," Xinhua, December 21, 2002. Incidentally, the Chinese Navy has never berthed there, in spite of China having played a key role in building the harbor facilities near Rangoon.
65. For details, see Ministry of Defence (India), Annual Report 2003-04 (New Delhi: MOD Publications, 2004), p. 69
66. and Renaud Egreteau, "India Courts a Junta," Asia Times, September 20, 2003.
67. For a discussion, see Ministry of Defence (India), Annual Report 2004-05 (New Delhi: MOD Publications, 2005), p. 47
68. and "Fleet Expansion in Mind, Myanmar Looks to India for Expertise," Indian Express (New Delhi), January 13, 2006.
69. David Scott, "India's 'Grand Strategy' for the Indian Ocean: Mahanian Visions," Asia Pacific Review 13:2 (November 2006), pp. 97-129.
70. "India to Firm up Military Ties with Myanmar," The Hindu, June 24, 2007.
71. For an analysis, see Tin Maung Maung Than, "Myanmar and China: A Special Relationship?" Southeast Asian Affairs (2003), pp. 189-210.
72. Interviews with various foreign diplomats based in Rangoon, November 2007 and February 2008.
73. For an analytic discussion, see Mya Maung, "The Burma Road to the Past," Asian Survey 39:2 (March-April 1999), pp. 265-86
74. and Mikael Gravers, Nationalism as Political Paranoia in Burma: An Essay on the Historical Practice of Power (Richmond: Curzon Press, 1999).
75. Interview with the Consul General of India, Mandalay, Burma, March 6, 2007.
76. Personal discussions with leaders of the Burmese exile community in India and Thailand between 2002 and 2006.
77. "Visiting Indian Hits Storm of Burma Critics," Bangkok Post, September 14, 2007.
78. For a discussion, see "India, Myanmar Sign Pact on Kaladan Project," Business Line (India), April 3, 2008.
79. For details, see "India Sends Relief Ships to Cylone-hit Myanmar," Times of India, May 6, 2008.