메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 34, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 1446-1465

The Probabilistic Nature of Preferential Choice

Author keywords

cumulative prospect theory; decision field theory; expected utility theory; priority heuristic; probabilistic choice models

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; DECISION MAKING; DECISION THEORY; FEMALE; HIGH RISK BEHAVIOR; HUMAN; LEARNING; MALE; MOTIVATION; PATHOLOGICAL GAMBLING; PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECT; STATISTICAL MODEL;

EID: 56449086189     PISSN: 02787393     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0013646     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (178)

References (75)
  • 1
    • 15944398201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prominence theory as a tool to model boundedly rational decisions
    • Gigerenzer G., and Selten R. (Eds), MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
    • Albers W. Prominence theory as a tool to model boundedly rational decisions. In: Gigerenzer G., and Selten R. (Eds). Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox (2001), MIT Press, Cambridge, MA 297-317
    • (2001) Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox , pp. 297-317
    • Albers, W.1
  • 2
    • 0020183162 scopus 로고
    • Regret in decision-making under uncertainty
    • Bell D.E. Regret in decision-making under uncertainty. Operations Research 30 (1982) 961-981
    • (1982) Operations Research , vol.30 , pp. 961-981
    • Bell, D.E.1
  • 3
    • 0021794589 scopus 로고
    • Disappointment in decision-making under uncertainty
    • Bell D.E. Disappointment in decision-making under uncertainty. Operations Research 33 (1985) 1-27
    • (1985) Operations Research , vol.33 , pp. 1-27
    • Bell, D.E.1
  • 5
    • 28244444502 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of five models that predict violations of first-order stochastic dominance in risky decision making
    • Birnbaum M.H. A comparison of five models that predict violations of first-order stochastic dominance in risky decision making. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty 31 (2005) 263-287
    • (2005) Journal of Risk & Uncertainty , vol.31 , pp. 263-287
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1
  • 6
    • 39049112945 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the priority heuristic as a descriptive model of risky decision making: Comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)
    • Birnbaum M.H. Evaluation of the priority heuristic as a descriptive model of risky decision making: Comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006). Psychological Review 115 (2008) 235-260
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 235-260
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1
  • 7
    • 0040747456 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tests of theories of decision making: Violations of branch independence and distribution independence
    • Birnbaum M.H., and Chavez A. Tests of theories of decision making: Violations of branch independence and distribution independence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 71 (1997) 161-194
    • (1997) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.71 , pp. 161-194
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1    Chavez, A.2
  • 8
    • 0039472954 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence against rank-dependent utility theories: Tests of cumulative independence, interval independence, stochastic dominance, and transitivity
    • Birnbaum M.H., Patton J.N., and Lott M.K. Evidence against rank-dependent utility theories: Tests of cumulative independence, interval independence, stochastic dominance, and transitivity. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 77 (1999) 44-83
    • (1999) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.77 , pp. 44-83
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1    Patton, J.N.2    Lott, M.K.3
  • 9
    • 0002572465 scopus 로고
    • Random orderings and stochastic theories of responses
    • Olkin I., Ghurye S., Hoeffding W., Madow W., and Mann H. (Eds), Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA
    • Block H.D., and Marschak J. Random orderings and stochastic theories of responses. In: Olkin I., Ghurye S., Hoeffding W., Madow W., and Mann H. (Eds). Contributions to probability and statistics (1960), Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA 90-132
    • (1960) Contributions to probability and statistics , pp. 90-132
    • Block, H.D.1    Marschak, J.2
  • 10
  • 12
    • 0039288300 scopus 로고
    • Importance of measurement theory, error theory, and experimental design for testing the significance of interactions
    • Busemeyer J.R. Importance of measurement theory, error theory, and experimental design for testing the significance of interactions. Psychological Bulletin 88 (1980) 237-244
    • (1980) Psychological Bulletin , vol.88 , pp. 237-244
    • Busemeyer, J.R.1
  • 13
    • 0027637720 scopus 로고
    • Decision field theory: A dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment
    • Busemeyer J.R., and Townsend J.T. Decision field theory: A dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. Psychological Review 100 (1993) 432-459
    • (1993) Psychological Review , vol.100 , pp. 432-459
    • Busemeyer, J.R.1    Townsend, J.T.2
  • 14
    • 0000221780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model comparisons and model selections based on generalization criterion methodology
    • Busemeyer J.R., and Wang Y.-M. Model comparisons and model selections based on generalization criterion methodology. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 44 (2000) 171-189
    • (2000) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.44 , pp. 171-189
    • Busemeyer, J.R.1    Wang, Y.-M.2
  • 15
    • 0003139662 scopus 로고
    • An experimental test of several generalized utility theories
    • Camerer C.F. An experimental test of several generalized utility theories. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty 2 (1989) 61-104
    • (1989) Journal of Risk & Uncertainty , vol.2 , pp. 61-104
    • Camerer, C.F.1
  • 16
    • 36148949324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of information redundancy on probabilistic inferences
    • Dieckmann A., and Rieskamp J. The influence of information redundancy on probabilistic inferences. Memory & Cognition 35 (2007) 1801-1813
    • (2007) Memory & Cognition , vol.35 , pp. 1801-1813
    • Dieckmann, A.1    Rieskamp, J.2
  • 17
    • 0002344794 scopus 로고
    • Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife
    • Efron B. Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife. The Annals of Statistics 7 (1979) 1-26
    • (1979) The Annals of Statistics , vol.7 , pp. 1-26
    • Efron, B.1
  • 18
    • 26844491600 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On adaptation, maximization, and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies
    • Erev I., and Barron G. On adaptation, maximization, and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies. Psychological Review 112 (2005) 912-931
    • (2005) Psychological Review , vol.112 , pp. 912-931
    • Erev, I.1    Barron, G.2
  • 19
    • 56449114257 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Erev, I., Roth, A., Slonim, R. L., & Barron, G. (2002). Combining a theoretical prediction with experimental evidence to yield a new prediction: An experimental design with a random sample of tasks. Unpublished manuscript.
    • Erev, I., Roth, A., Slonim, R. L., & Barron, G. (2002). Combining a theoretical prediction with experimental evidence to yield a new prediction: An experimental design with a random sample of tasks. Unpublished manuscript.
  • 20
    • 12044259660 scopus 로고
    • Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes
    • Erev I., Wallsten T.S., and Budescu D.V. Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review 101 (1994) 519-527
    • (1994) Psychological Review , vol.101 , pp. 519-527
    • Erev, I.1    Wallsten, T.S.2    Budescu, D.V.3
  • 21
    • 25644458401 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risks of drawing inferences about cognitive processes from model fits to individual versus average performance
    • Estes W.K., and Maddox W.T. Risks of drawing inferences about cognitive processes from model fits to individual versus average performance. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 12 (2005) 403-408
    • (2005) Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , vol.12 , pp. 403-408
    • Estes, W.K.1    Maddox, W.T.2
  • 22
    • 0002511223 scopus 로고
    • Random conjoint measurement and loudness summation
    • Falmagne J.C. Random conjoint measurement and loudness summation. Psychological Review 83 (1976) 65-79
    • (1976) Psychological Review , vol.83 , pp. 65-79
    • Falmagne, J.C.1
  • 24
    • 0000177088 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Key concepts in model selection: Performance and generalizability
    • Forster M.R. Key concepts in model selection: Performance and generalizability. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 44 (2000) 205-231
    • (2000) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.44 , pp. 205-231
    • Forster, M.R.1
  • 26
    • 0030266119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality
    • Gigerenzer G., and Goldstein D.G. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review 103 (1996) 650-669
    • (1996) Psychological Review , vol.103 , pp. 650-669
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Goldstein, D.G.2
  • 27
    • 85047669562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making trade-offs: A probabilistic and context-sensitive model of choice behavior
    • González-Vallejo C. Making trade-offs: A probabilistic and context-sensitive model of choice behavior. Psychological Review 109 (2002) 137-155
    • (2002) Psychological Review , vol.109 , pp. 137-155
    • González-Vallejo, C.1
  • 28
    • 85047671574 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why aggregated learning follows the power law of practice when individual learning does not: Comment on Rickard (1997, 1999), Delaney et al. (1998), and Palmeri (1999)
    • Haider H., and Frensch P.A. Why aggregated learning follows the power law of practice when individual learning does not: Comment on Rickard (1997, 1999), Delaney et al. (1998), and Palmeri (1999). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 28 (2002) 392-406
    • (2002) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , vol.28 , pp. 392-406
    • Haider, H.1    Frensch, P.A.2
  • 29
    • 0042130851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does repetition improve consistency?
    • Hey J.D. Does repetition improve consistency?. Experimental Economics 4 (2001) 5-54
    • (2001) Experimental Economics , vol.4 , pp. 5-54
    • Hey, J.D.1
  • 30
    • 39049112006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Process models deserve process data: Comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)
    • Johnson E.J., Schulte-Mecklenbeck M., and Willemsen M.C. Process models deserve process data: Comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006). Psychological Review 115 (2008) 263-273
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 263-273
    • Johnson, E.J.1    Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.2    Willemsen, M.C.3
  • 31
    • 0000125532 scopus 로고
    • Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
    • Kahneman D., and Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47 (1979) 263-291
    • (1979) Econometrica , vol.47 , pp. 263-291
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 32
    • 4644354372 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence accumulation in decision making: Unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models
    • Lee M.D., and Cummins T.D.R. Evidence accumulation in decision making: Unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 11 (2004) 343-352
    • (2004) Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , vol.11 , pp. 343-352
    • Lee, M.D.1    Cummins, T.D.R.2
  • 33
    • 21844515327 scopus 로고
    • Generalized similarity judgments: An alternative explanation for choice anomalies
    • Leland J.W. Generalized similarity judgments: An alternative explanation for choice anomalies. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty 9 (1994) 151-172
    • (1994) Journal of Risk & Uncertainty , vol.9 , pp. 151-172
    • Leland, J.W.1
  • 34
    • 0000923828 scopus 로고
    • Regret theory-An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty
    • Loomes G., and Sugden R. Regret theory-An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal 92 (1982) 805-824
    • (1982) Economic Journal , vol.92 , pp. 805-824
    • Loomes, G.1    Sugden, R.2
  • 35
    • 0000349207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of aspiration level in risky choice: A comparison of cumulative prospect theory and SP/A theory
    • Lopes L.L., and Oden G.C. The role of aspiration level in risky choice: A comparison of cumulative prospect theory and SP/A theory. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 43 (1999) 286-313
    • (1999) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.43 , pp. 286-313
    • Lopes, L.L.1    Oden, G.C.2
  • 39
    • 0002408974 scopus 로고
    • Rank- and sign-dependent linear utility models for finite first order gambles
    • Luce R.D., and Fishburn P.C. Rank- and sign-dependent linear utility models for finite first order gambles. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty 4 (1991) 29-59
    • (1991) Journal of Risk & Uncertainty , vol.4 , pp. 29-59
    • Luce, R.D.1    Fishburn, P.C.2
  • 40
    • 21844505952 scopus 로고
    • A note on deriving rank-dependent utility using additive joint receipts
    • Luce R.D., and Fishburn P.C. A note on deriving rank-dependent utility using additive joint receipts. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty 11 (1995) 5-16
    • (1995) Journal of Risk & Uncertainty , vol.11 , pp. 5-16
    • Luce, R.D.1    Fishburn, P.C.2
  • 41
    • 0001074383 scopus 로고
    • Preference, utility, and subjective probability
    • Luce R.D., Bush R.B., and Galanter E. (Eds), Wiley, New York
    • Luce R.D., and Suppes P. Preference, utility, and subjective probability. In: Luce R.D., Bush R.B., and Galanter E. (Eds). Handbook of mathematical psychology 3 (1965), Wiley, New York 249-410
    • (1965) Handbook of mathematical psychology , vol.3 , pp. 249-410
    • Luce, R.D.1    Suppes, P.2
  • 42
    • 0001111491 scopus 로고
    • Dynamic consistency and non-expected utility-models of choice under uncertainty
    • Machina M.J. Dynamic consistency and non-expected utility-models of choice under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Literature 27 (1989) 1622-1668
    • (1989) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.27 , pp. 1622-1668
    • Machina, M.J.1
  • 43
    • 0036335510 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Random utility models and their applications: Recent developments
    • Marley A.A.J. Random utility models and their applications: Recent developments. Mathematical Social Sciences 43 (2002) 289-302
    • (2002) Mathematical Social Sciences , vol.43 , pp. 289-302
    • Marley, A.A.J.1
  • 44
    • 38649131932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The aging decision maker: Cognitive aging and the adaptive selection of decision strategies
    • Mata R., Schooler L.J., and Rieskamp J. The aging decision maker: Cognitive aging and the adaptive selection of decision strategies. Psychology & Aging 22 (2007) 796-810
    • (2007) Psychology & Aging , vol.22 , pp. 796-810
    • Mata, R.1    Schooler, L.J.2    Rieskamp, J.3
  • 45
    • 0002297105 scopus 로고
    • Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior
    • Zarembka P. (Ed), Academic Press, New York
    • McFadden D. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In: Zarembka P. (Ed). Frontiers in econometrics (1974), Academic Press, New York 105-142
    • (1974) Frontiers in econometrics , pp. 105-142
    • McFadden, D.1
  • 46
    • 0034329674 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences
    • Mellers B.A. Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences. Psychological Bulletin 126 (2000) 910-924
    • (2000) Psychological Bulletin , vol.126 , pp. 910-924
    • Mellers, B.A.1
  • 49
    • 0345792472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of complexity in model selection
    • Myung I.J. The importance of complexity in model selection. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 44 (2000) 190-204
    • (2000) Journal of Mathematical Psychology , vol.44 , pp. 190-204
    • Myung, I.J.1
  • 50
    • 0003016813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applying Occam's razor in modeling cognition: A Bayesian approach
    • Myung I.J., and Pitt M.A. Applying Occam's razor in modeling cognition: A Bayesian approach. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 4 (1997) 79-95
    • (1997) Psychonomic Bulletin & Review , vol.4 , pp. 79-95
    • Myung, I.J.1    Pitt, M.A.2
  • 51
    • 0000238336 scopus 로고
    • A simplex method for function minimization
    • Nelder J.A., and Mead R. A simplex method for function minimization. Computer Journal 7 (1965) 308-313
    • (1965) Computer Journal , vol.7 , pp. 308-313
    • Nelder, J.A.1    Mead, R.2
  • 53
    • 85047674682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Toward a method of selecting among computational models of cognition
    • Pitt M.A., Myung I.J., and Zhang S. Toward a method of selecting among computational models of cognition. Psychological Review 109 (2002) 472-491
    • (2002) Psychological Review , vol.109 , pp. 472-491
    • Pitt, M.A.1    Myung, I.J.2    Zhang, S.3
  • 56
    • 39049152924 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is behind the priority heuristic? A mathematical analysis and comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)
    • Rieger M.O., and Wang M. What is behind the priority heuristic? A mathematical analysis and comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006). Psychological Review 115 (2008) 274-280
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 274-280
    • Rieger, M.O.1    Wang, M.2
  • 57
    • 33750714079 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perspectives of probabilistic inferences: A reinforcement and an adaptive network model compared
    • Rieskamp J. Perspectives of probabilistic inferences: A reinforcement and an adaptive network model compared. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 32 (2006) 1355-1370
    • (2006) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , vol.32 , pp. 1355-1370
    • Rieskamp, J.1
  • 58
    • 56449105104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of learning when making inferences
    • Rieskamp J. The importance of learning when making inferences. Judgment and Decision Making 3 (2008) 261-277
    • (2008) Judgment and Decision Making , vol.3 , pp. 261-277
    • Rieskamp, J.1
  • 59
    • 33749078669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending the bounds of rationality: A review of research on preferential choice
    • Rieskamp J., Busemeyer J.R., and Mellers B. Extending the bounds of rationality: A review of research on preferential choice. Journal of Economic Literature 44 (2006) 631-661
    • (2006) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.44 , pp. 631-661
    • Rieskamp, J.1    Busemeyer, J.R.2    Mellers, B.3
  • 60
    • 38149019932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferences under time pressure: How opportunity costs affect strategy selection
    • Rieskamp J., and Hoffrage U. Inferences under time pressure: How opportunity costs affect strategy selection. Acta Psychologica 127 (2008) 258-276
    • (2008) Acta Psychologica , vol.127 , pp. 258-276
    • Rieskamp, J.1    Hoffrage, U.2
  • 62
    • 0034168516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing
    • Roberts S., and Pashler H. How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 358-367
    • (2000) Psychological Review , vol.107 , pp. 358-367
    • Roberts, S.1    Pashler, H.2
  • 63
    • 85047684990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multialternative decision field theory: A dynamic connectionist model of decision making
    • Roe R.M., Busemeyer J.R., and Townsend J.T. Multialternative decision field theory: A dynamic connectionist model of decision making. Psychological Review 108 (2001) 370-392
    • (2001) Psychological Review , vol.108 , pp. 370-392
    • Roe, R.M.1    Busemeyer, J.R.2    Townsend, J.T.3
  • 64
    • 38249029078 scopus 로고
    • Similarity and decision-making under risk (is there a utility-theory resolution to the Allais paradox?).
    • Rubinstein A. Similarity and decision-making under risk (is there a utility-theory resolution to the Allais paradox?). Journal of Economic Theory 46 (1988) 145-153
    • (1988) Journal of Economic Theory , vol.46 , pp. 145-153
    • Rubinstein, A.1
  • 67
    • 0000268935 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developments in non-expected utility theory: The hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk
    • Starmer C. Developments in non-expected utility theory: The hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk. Journal of Economic Literature 38 (2000) 332-382
    • (2000) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.38 , pp. 332-382
    • Starmer, C.1
  • 68
    • 84980190325 scopus 로고
    • Efficient decision heuristics
    • Thorngate W. Efficient decision heuristics. Behavioral Science 25 (1980) 219-225
    • (1980) Behavioral Science , vol.25 , pp. 219-225
    • Thorngate, W.1
  • 69
    • 58149426837 scopus 로고
    • A law of comparative judgment
    • Thurstone L.L. A law of comparative judgment. Psychological Review 34 (1927) 273-286
    • (1927) Psychological Review , vol.34 , pp. 273-286
    • Thurstone, L.L.1
  • 71
    • 58149416322 scopus 로고
    • Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice
    • Tversky A. Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. Psychological Review 79 (1972) 281-299
    • (1972) Psychological Review , vol.79 , pp. 281-299
    • Tversky, A.1
  • 72
    • 31744450082 scopus 로고
    • Advances in prospect-theory-Cumulative representation of uncertainty
    • Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Advances in prospect-theory-Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty 5 (1992) 297-323
    • (1992) Journal of Risk & Uncertainty , vol.5 , pp. 297-323
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 75
    • 84965644383 scopus 로고
    • Model selection-strategies and the use of association models to detect group-differences
    • Wong R.S.K. Model selection-strategies and the use of association models to detect group-differences. Sociological Methods & Research 22 (1994) 460-491
    • (1994) Sociological Methods & Research , vol.22 , pp. 460-491
    • Wong, R.S.K.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.