메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 172, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 613-624

Using mechanistic models to understand synchrony in forest insect populations: The North American gypsy moth as a case study

Author keywords

Correlated environmental stochasticity; Difference equation model; Dispersal kernel; Lymantria dispar; Route to chaos; Spatial synchrony

Indexed keywords

CHAOTIC DYNAMICS; DEFOLIATION; DISPERSAL; MOTH; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MODELING; STOCHASTICITY; SUBPOPULATION; SYNCHRONY;

EID: 54349103051     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/591679     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (19)

References (72)
  • 1
    • 34547877594 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Food-limitation and insect outbreaks: Complex dynamics in plant-herbivore interactions
    • Abbott, K., and G. Dwyer. 2007. Food-limitation and insect outbreaks: complex dynamics in plant-herbivore interactions. Journal of Animal Ecology 76:1004-1014.
    • (2007) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.76 , pp. 1004-1014
    • Abbott, K.1    Dwyer, G.2
  • 3
    • 34248339541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does the pattern of population synchrony through space reveal if the Moran effect is acting?
    • _. 2007. Does the pattern of population synchrony through space reveal if the Moran effect is acting? Oikos 116:903-912.
    • (2007) Oikos , vol.116 , pp. 903-912
    • Abbott, K.C.1
  • 4
    • 0027340050 scopus 로고
    • Chaos reduces species extinction by amplifying local population noise
    • Allen, J. C., W. M. Schaffer, and D. Rosko. 1993. Chaos reduces species extinction by amplifying local population noise. Nature 364:229-232.
    • (1993) Nature , vol.364 , pp. 229-232
    • Allen, J.C.1    Schaffer, W.M.2    Rosko, D.3
  • 5
    • 0032004050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interactions between local dynamics and dispersal: Insights from single species models
    • Amarasekare, P. 1998. Interactions between local dynamics and dispersal: insights from single species models. Theoretical Population Biology 53:44-59.
    • (1998) Theoretical Population Biology , vol.53 , pp. 44-59
    • Amarasekare, P.1
  • 7
    • 0033795073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cycles and synchrony: Two historical "experiments" and one experience
    • Bjørnstad, O. N. 2000. Cycles and synchrony: two historical "experiments" and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69:869-873.
    • (2000) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.69 , pp. 869-873
    • Bjørnstad, O.N.1
  • 8
    • 0035209422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Synchrony and second-order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems
    • Bjørnstad, O. N., and J. Bascompte. 2001. Synchrony and second-order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems. Journal of Animal Ecology 70:924-933.
    • (2001) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.70 , pp. 924-933
    • Bjørnstad, O.N.1    Bascompte, J.2
  • 9
    • 0009815850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimating and testing
    • Bjørnstad, O. N., and W. Falck. 2001. Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: estimating and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 8:53-70.
    • (2001) Environmental and Ecological Statistics , vol.8 , pp. 53-70
    • Bjørnstad, O.N.1    Falck, W.2
  • 10
    • 0033231663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial population dynamics: Analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony
    • Bjørnstad, O. N., R. A. Ims, and X. Lambin. 1999. Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 14:427-432.
    • (1999) Trends in Ecology & Evolution , vol.14 , pp. 427-432
    • Bjørnstad, O.N.1    Ims, R.A.2    Lambin, X.3
  • 11
    • 0033609387 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems
    • Blasius, B., A. Huppert, and L. Stone. 1999. Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems. Nature 399:354-359.
    • (1999) Nature , vol.399 , pp. 354-359
    • Blasius, B.1    Huppert, A.2    Stone, L.3
  • 13
    • 9444268362 scopus 로고
    • Methods used in determining wind dispersion of the gipsy moth and some other insects
    • Collins, C. W. 1917. Methods used in determining wind dispersion of the gipsy moth and some other insects. Journal of Economic Entomology 10:170-177.
    • (1917) Journal of Economic Entomology , vol.10 , pp. 170-177
    • Collins, C.W.1
  • 14
    • 0030726405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Host heterogeneity in susceptibility and disease dynamics: Tests of a mathematical model
    • Dwyer, G., J. S. Elkinton, and J. P. Buonaccorsi. 1997. Host heterogeneity in susceptibility and disease dynamics: tests of a mathematical model. American Naturalist 150:685-707.
    • (1997) American Naturalist , vol.150 , pp. 685-707
    • Dwyer, G.1    Elkinton, J.S.2    Buonaccorsi, J.P.3
  • 15
    • 0033943452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pathogen-driven outbreaks in forest defoliators revisited: Building models from experimental data
    • Dwyer, G., J. Dushoff, J. S. Elkinton, and S. A. Levin. 2000. Pathogen-driven outbreaks in forest defoliators revisited: building models from experimental data. American Naturalist 156:105-120.
    • (2000) American Naturalist , vol.156 , pp. 105-120
    • Dwyer, G.1    Dushoff, J.2    Elkinton, J.S.3    Levin, S.A.4
  • 16
    • 3142759393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The combined effects of pathogens and predators on insect outbreaks
    • Dwyer, G., J. Dushoff, and S. H. Yee. 2004. The combined effects of pathogens and predators on insect outbreaks. Nature 430:341-345.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.430 , pp. 341-345
    • Dwyer, G.1    Dushoff, J.2    Yee, S.H.3
  • 17
    • 13444278782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Should models of disease dynamics in insect herbivores include the effects of variability in host-plant foliage quality?
    • Dwyer, G., J. Firestone, and T. E. Stevens. 2005. Should models of disease dynamics in insect herbivores include the effects of variability in host-plant foliage quality? American Naturalist 165:16-31.
    • (2005) American Naturalist , vol.165 , pp. 16-31
    • Dwyer, G.1    Firestone, J.2    Stevens, T.E.3
  • 19
    • 0034680893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coherence and conservation
    • Earn, D. J. D., S. A. Levin, and P. Rohani. 2000. Coherence and conservation. Science 290:1360-1364.
    • (2000) Science , vol.290 , pp. 1360-1364
    • Earn, D.J.D.1    Levin, S.A.2    Rohani, P.3
  • 20
    • 0025659893 scopus 로고
    • Population dynamics of gypsy moth in North America
    • Elkinton, J. S., and A. M. Liebhold. 1990. Population dynamics of gypsy moth in North America. Annual Review of Entomology 35:571-596.
    • (1990) Annual Review of Entomology , vol.35 , pp. 571-596
    • Elkinton, J.S.1    Liebhold, A.M.2
  • 22
    • 4644370571 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of alternative prey on predation by small mammals on gypsy moth pupae
    • Elkinton, J. S., A. M. Liebhold, and R. M. Muzika. 2004. Effects of alternative prey on predation by small mammals on gypsy moth pupae. Population Ecology 46:171-178.
    • (2004) Population Ecology , vol.46 , pp. 171-178
    • Elkinton, J.S.1    Liebhold, A.M.2    Muzika, R.M.3
  • 23
    • 29144481903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When can noise induce chaos and why does it matter: A critique
    • Ellner, S. P., and P. Turchin. 2005. When can noise induce chaos and why does it matter: a critique. Oikos 111:620-631.
    • (2005) Oikos , vol.111 , pp. 620-631
    • Ellner, S.P.1    Turchin, P.2
  • 24
    • 27744569854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generalizations of the Moran effect explaining spatial synchrony in population fluctuations
    • Engen, S., and B.-E. Sæther. 2005. Generalizations of the Moran effect explaining spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. American Naturalist 166:603-612.
    • (2005) American Naturalist , vol.166 , pp. 603-612
    • Engen, S.1    Sæther, B.-E.2
  • 26
    • 34247103109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial synchrony in host-parasitoid populations
    • Gao, M., W. Li, Z. Li, H. Dai, and H. Liu. 2007. Spatial synchrony in host-parasitoid populations. Ecological Modelling 204:29-39.
    • (2007) Ecological Modelling , vol.204 , pp. 29-39
    • Gao, M.1    Li, W.2    Li, Z.3    Dai, H.4    Liu, H.5
  • 27
    • 0034983132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of stochasticity on the behavior of nonlinear population models: Synchrony and the Moran effect
    • Greenman, J. V., and T. G. Benton. 2001. The impact of stochasticity on the behavior of nonlinear population models: synchrony and the Moran effect. Oikos 93:343-351.
    • (2001) Oikos , vol.93 , pp. 343-351
    • Greenman, J.V.1    Benton, T.G.2
  • 30
    • 13444306423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selective predation and productivity jointly drive complex behavior in host-parasite systems
    • Hall, S. R., M. A. Duffy, and C. E. Cáceres. 2005. Selective predation and productivity jointly drive complex behavior in host-parasite systems. American Naturalist 165:70-81.
    • (2005) American Naturalist , vol.165 , pp. 70-81
    • Hall, S.R.1    Duffy, M.A.2    Cáceres, C.E.3
  • 31
    • 0027870943 scopus 로고
    • Spatial synchrony in the dynamics of moth and aphid populations
    • Hanski, I., and I. P.Woiwod. 1993. Spatial synchrony in the dynamics of moth and aphid populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 62:656-668.
    • (1993) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.62 , pp. 656-668
    • Hanski, I.1    Woiwod, I.P.2
  • 32
    • 0027487578 scopus 로고
    • Complex interactions between dispersal and dynamics: Lessons from coupled logistic equations
    • Hastings, A. 1993. Complex interactions between dispersal and dynamics: lessons from coupled logistic equations. Ecology 74:1362-1372.
    • (1993) Ecology , vol.74 , pp. 1362-1372
    • Hastings, A.1
  • 34
    • 0033923597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of synchrony with host plant on populations of a spring-feeding lepidopteran
    • Hunter, A. F., and J. S. Elkinton. 2000. Effects of synchrony with host plant on populations of a spring-feeding lepidopteran. Ecology 81:1248-1261.
    • (2000) Ecology , vol.81 , pp. 1248-1261
    • Hunter, A.F.1    Elkinton, J.S.2
  • 35
    • 0025204970 scopus 로고
    • Geographical synchrony in microtine population cycles: A theoretical evaluation of the role of nomadic avian predators
    • Ims, R. A., and H. Steen. 1990. Geographical synchrony in microtine population cycles: a theoretical evaluation of the role of nomadic avian predators. Oikos 57:381-387.
    • (1990) Oikos , vol.57 , pp. 381-387
    • Ims, R.A.1    Steen, H.2
  • 36
    • 40449103084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn
    • Ives, A. R., Á. Einarsson, V. A. A. Jansen, and A. Gardarsson. 2008. High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn. Nature 452:84-87.
    • (2008) Nature , vol.452 , pp. 84-87
    • Ives, A.R.1    Einarsson, A.2    Jansen, V.A.A.3    Gardarsson, A.4
  • 38
    • 33751104176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Allee effects and pulsed invasions by the gypsy moth
    • Johnson, D. M., A. M. Liebhold, P. C. Tobin, and O. N. Bjørnstad. 2006. Allee effects and pulsed invasions by the gypsy moth. Nature 144:361-363.
    • (2006) Nature , vol.144 , pp. 361-363
    • Johnson, D.M.1    Liebhold, A.M.2    Tobin, P.C.3    Bjørnstad, O.N.4
  • 39
  • 40
    • 0033016226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial autocorrelation of ecological phenomena
    • Koenig,W. D. 1999. Spatial autocorrelation of ecological phenomena. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 14:22-26.
    • (1999) Trends in Ecology & Evolution , vol.14 , pp. 22-26
    • Koenig, W.D.1
  • 41
    • 0036258794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global patterns of environmental synchrony and the Moran effect
    • _. 2002. Global patterns of environmental synchrony and the Moran effect. Ecography 25:283-288.
    • (2002) Ecography , vol.25 , pp. 283-288
    • Koenig, W.D.1
  • 43
    • 0030426365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dispersal data and the spread of invading organisms
    • Kot, M., M. A. Lewis, and P. van den Driessche. 1996. Dispersal data and the spread of invading organisms. Ecology 77:2027-2042.
    • (1996) Ecology , vol.77 , pp. 2027-2042
    • Kot, M.1    Lewis, M.A.2    van den Driessche, P.3
  • 45
    • 0032735371 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial scale of population synchrony: Environmental correlation versus dispersal and density regulation
    • Lande, R., S. Engen, and B.-E. Sæther. 1999. Spatial scale of population synchrony: environmental correlation versus dispersal and density regulation. American Naturalist 154:271-281.
    • (1999) American Naturalist , vol.154 , pp. 271-281
    • Lande, R.1    Engen, S.2    Sæther, B.-E.3
  • 46
    • 0034479463 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are population cycles and spatial synchrony a universal characteristic of forest insect populations?
    • Liebhold, A. M., and N. Kamata. 2000. Are population cycles and spatial synchrony a universal characteristic of forest insect populations? Population Ecology 42:205-209.
    • (2000) Population Ecology , vol.42 , pp. 205-209
    • Liebhold, A.M.1    Kamata, N.2
  • 48
    • 0027100270 scopus 로고
    • Gypsy moth invasion in North America: A quantitative analysis
    • Liebhold, A. M., J. A. Halverson, and G. A. Elmes. 1992. Gypsy moth invasion in North America: a quantitative analysis. Journal of Biogeography 19:513-520.
    • (1992) Journal of Biogeography , vol.19 , pp. 513-520
    • Liebhold, A.M.1    Halverson, J.A.2    Elmes, G.A.3
  • 51
    • 33645472246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity
    • Liebhold, A. M., D. M. Johnson, and O. N. Bjørnstad. 2006. Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity. Population Ecology 48:131-138.
    • (2006) Population Ecology , vol.48 , pp. 131-138
    • Liebhold, A.M.1    Johnson, D.M.2    Bjørnstad, O.N.3
  • 52
    • 17144410395 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bootstrap methods for estimating spatial synchrony of fluctuating populations
    • Lillegård, M., S. Engen, and B.-E. Sæther. 2005. Bootstrap methods for estimating spatial synchrony of fluctuating populations. Oikos 109:342-350.
    • (2005) Oikos , vol.109 , pp. 342-350
    • Lillegård, M.1    Engen, S.2    Sæther, B.-E.3
  • 53
    • 0001496869 scopus 로고
    • Environmental contamination of egg masses as a major component of transgenerational transmission of gypsy-moth nuclear polyhedrosis virus (LdMNPV)
    • Murray, K. D., and J. S. Elkinton. 1989. Environmental contamination of egg masses as a major component of transgenerational transmission of gypsy-moth nuclear polyhedrosis virus (LdMNPV). Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 53:324-334.
    • (1989) Journal of Invertebrate Pathology , vol.53 , pp. 324-334
    • Murray, K.D.1    Elkinton, J.S.2
  • 54
    • 0000989330 scopus 로고
    • Transmission of nuclear polyhedrosis virus to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) eggs via contaminated substrates
    • _. 1990. Transmission of nuclear polyhedrosis virus to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) eggs via contaminated substrates. Environmental Entomology 19:662-665.
    • (1990) Environmental Entomology , vol.19 , pp. 662-665
    • Murray, K.D.1    Elkinton, J.S.2
  • 55
    • 0032784153 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Natural mortality of the gypsy moth along a gradient of infestation
    • Nealis, V. G., P. M. Roden, and D. A. Ortiz. 1999. Natural mortality of the gypsy moth along a gradient of infestation. Canadian Entomologist 131:507-519.
    • (1999) Canadian Entomologist , vol.131 , pp. 507-519
    • Nealis, V.G.1    Roden, P.M.2    Ortiz, D.A.3
  • 56
    • 0037971466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial synchrony in forest insect outbreaks: Roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal
    • Peltonen, M., A. M. Liebhold, O. N. Bjørnstad, and D. W. Williams. 2002. Spatial synchrony in forest insect outbreaks: roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 83:3120-3129.
    • (2002) Ecology , vol.83 , pp. 3120-3129
    • Peltonen, M.1    Liebhold, A.M.2    Bjørnstad, O.N.3    Williams, D.W.4
  • 57
    • 28444445926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna
    • R Development Core Team, 2005. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. http://www.R-project.org.
    • (2005) R: A language and environment for statistical computing
  • 58
    • 1342268906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population synchrony within and among Lepidoptera species in relation to weather, phylogeny, and larval phenology
    • Raimondo, S., A. M. Liebhold, J. S. Strazanac, and L. Butler. 2004. Population synchrony within and among Lepidoptera species in relation to weather, phylogeny, and larval phenology. Environmental Entomology 29:96-105.
    • (2004) Environmental Entomology , vol.29 , pp. 96-105
    • Raimondo, S.1    Liebhold, A.M.2    Strazanac, J.S.3    Butler, L.4
  • 59
    • 0030881139 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of Canadian lynx populations in space and time
    • Ranta, E., V. Kaitala, and J. Lindström. 1997. Dynamics of Canadian lynx populations in space and time. Ecography 20:454-460.
    • (1997) Ecography , vol.20 , pp. 454-460
    • Ranta, E.1    Kaitala, V.2    Lindström, J.3
  • 60
    • 0031741956 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population variability in space and time: The dynamics of synchronous population fluctuations
    • Ranta, E., V. Kaitala, and P. Lundberg. 1998. Population variability in space and time: the dynamics of synchronous population fluctuations. Oikos 83:376-382.
    • (1998) Oikos , vol.83 , pp. 376-382
    • Ranta, E.1    Kaitala, V.2    Lundberg, P.3
  • 63
    • 0024250652 scopus 로고
    • Environmental variability, migration, and persistence in host-parasitoid systems
    • Reeve, J. D. 1988. Environmental variability, migration, and persistence in host-parasitoid systems. American Naturalist 132:810-836.
    • (1988) American Naturalist , vol.132 , pp. 810-836
    • Reeve, J.D.1
  • 64
    • 0029165248 scopus 로고
    • Immigration and the persistence of chaos in population models
    • Rohani, P., and O. Miramontes. 1995. Immigration and the persistence of chaos in population models. Journal of Theoretical Biology 175:203-206.
    • (1995) Journal of Theoretical Biology , vol.175 , pp. 203-206
    • Rohani, P.1    Miramontes, O.2
  • 66
    • 0033041148 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fitness-dependent dispersal in metapopulations and its consequences for persistence and synchrony
    • Ruxton, G. D., and P. Rohani. 1999. Fitness-dependent dispersal in metapopulations and its consequences for persistence and synchrony. Journal of Animal Ecology 68:530-539.
    • (1999) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.68 , pp. 530-539
    • Ruxton, G.D.1    Rohani, P.2
  • 67
    • 54349083232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tél, T. 1990. Transient chaos. Pages 149-211 in H. Bai-lin, ed. Directions in chaos. 3. Experimental study and characterization of chaos. World Scientific, Singapore.
    • Tél, T. 1990. Transient chaos. Pages 149-211 in H. Bai-lin, ed. Directions in chaos. Vol. 3. Experimental study and characterization of chaos. World Scientific, Singapore.
  • 69
    • 0002565486 scopus 로고
    • The host population
    • J. R. Fuxa and Y. Tanada, eds, Wiley, New York
    • Watanabe, H. 1987. The host population. Pages 71-112 in J. R. Fuxa and Y. Tanada, eds. Epizootiology of insect diseases. Wiley, New York.
    • (1987) Epizootiology of insect diseases , pp. 71-112
    • Watanabe, H.1
  • 70
    • 32444441114 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Persistence of invading gypsy moth populations in the United States
    • Whitmire, S., and P. Tobin. 2006. Persistence of invading gypsy moth populations in the United States. Oecologia (Berlin) 147:230-237.
    • (2006) Oecologia (Berlin) , vol.147 , pp. 230-237
    • Whitmire, S.1    Tobin, P.2
  • 71
    • 0029503932 scopus 로고
    • Forest defoliators and climate change: Potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of Western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)
    • Williams, D. W., and A. M. Liebhold. 1995a. Forest defoliators and climate change: potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of Western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). Environmental Entomology 24:1-9.
    • (1995) Environmental Entomology , vol.24 , pp. 1-9
    • Williams, D.W.1    Liebhold, A.M.2
  • 72
    • 0028983697 scopus 로고
    • Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England
    • _. 1995b. Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England. Environmental Entomology 24:987-995.
    • (1995) Environmental Entomology , vol.24 , pp. 987-995
    • Williams, D.W.1    Liebhold, A.M.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.