Extinction risk scales better to generations than to years

Animal Conservation

Volumn 11, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 442-451

  O'Grady, Julian J ^a   Reed, D H ^b   Brook, B W ^c   Frankham, R ^a,d  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MISSISSIPPI   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

^d AUSTRALIAN MUSEUM   (Australia)

Author keywords

Population viability; Species management; Stochastic computer modelling; Vertebrates

Indexed keywords

CONSERVATION GENETICS; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; ENDANGERED SPECIES; EXTINCTION RISK; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS; SPECIES CONSERVATION; STOCHASTICITY;

VERTEBRATA;

EID: 54149112985     PISSN: 13679430     EISSN: 14691795     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2008.00201.x     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Akçakaya, H.R. (1994). RAMAS® Metapop: Viability analysis for stage-structured metapopulations (Version 1.1). Setauket, NY: Applied Biomathematics.
2. Akçakaya, H.R., Burgman, M.A., Kindvall, O., Wood, C.C., Sjogren-Gulve, P., Hatfield, J.S. & McCarthy, M.A. (Eds). (2004). Species conservation and management: Case studies. NY: Oxford University Press.
3. Armbruster, P., Fernando, P. & Lande, R. (1999). Timeframes for population viability analysis of species with long generations: An example with Asian elephants. Anim. Conserv. 2, 69-73.
4. Baillie, J.E.M., Hilton-Taylor, C. & Stuart, S.N. (Eds). (2004). 2004 IUCN red list of threatened species. A global species assessment. Gland, SwitzerlaHd: IUCN. Online version: http://www.iucn.org/themes/ssc/ red_list_2004/gsa2004.htm.
5. Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. (2002). Population viability analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
6. Belovsky, G.E. (1987). Extinction models and mammalian persistence. In Viable populations for conservation: 35-37. Soule, M.E. (Ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
7. Belovsky, G.E., Botkin, D.B., Crowl, T.A., Cummins, K.W., Franklin, J.F., Hunter, M.L., Jr., Joern, A., Lindenmayer, D.B., MacMahon, J.A., Margules, C.R. & Scott, J.M. (2004). Ten suggestions to strengthen the science of ecology. Bioscience 54, 345-351.
8. Bessa-Gomes, C., Danek-Gontard, M., Cassey, P., Møller, A., Legendre, S. & Colbert, J. (2003). Mating behaviour influences extinction risk: Insights from demographic modelling and comparative analysis of avian extinction risk. Ann. Zool. Fenn. 40, 231-245.
9. Brook, B.W. & Bowman, D.M.J.S. (2005). One equation fits overkill: why allometry underpins both prehistoric and modern body size-biased extinctions. Popul. Ecol. 42, 147-151.
10. Brook, B.W., Burgman, M.A., Akçakaya, H.R., O'Grady, J.J. & Frankham, R. (2002). Critiques of PVA ask the wrong questions: Throwing the heuristic baby out with the numerical bath water. Conserv. Biol. 16, 262-263.
11. Brook, B.W., O'Grady, J.J., Chapman, A.P., Burgman, M.A., Akçakaya, H.R. & Frankham, R. (2000). Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature 404, 385-387.
12. Brook, B.W., Trail, L.W. & Bradshaw, C.J.A. (2006). Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated. Ecol. Lett. 9, 375-382.
13. Bürger, R. & Lynch, M. (1995). Evolution and extinction in a changing environment: A quantitative-genetic analysis. Evolution 49, 151-163.
14. Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. (2002). Model selection and multimodel inference: An information theoretic approach. NY: Springer.
15. Caughley, G. & Gunn, A. (1996). Conservation biology in theory and practice. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.
16. Clark, J.S., Carpenter, S.R., Barber, M., Collins, S., Dobson, A., Foley, J.A., Lodge, D.M., Pascual, M., Pielke, R., Jr., Pizer, W., Pringle, C., Reid, W.V., Rose, K.A., Sala, O., Schlesinger, W.H., Wall, D.H. & Wear, D. (2001). Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative. Science 293, 657-660.
17. Collar, N.J. (1996). The reasons for Red data books. Oryx 30, 121-130.
18. Coulson, T., Mace, G.M., Hudson, E. & Possingham, H. (2001). The use and abuse of population viability analysis. Trends Ecol. Evol. 16, 219-221.
19. Ellner, S.P., Fieberg, J., Ludwig, D. & Wilcox, C. (2002). Precision of population viability analysis. Conserv. Biol. 16, 258-261.
20. Engen, S., Lande, R., Sæther, B.-E. & Bregnballe, T. (2005). Estimating the pattern of synchrony in fluctuating populations. J. Anim. Ecol. 74, 601-611.
21. Falconer, D.S. & Mackay, T.F.C. (1996). Introduction to quantitative genetics. 4th edn. Harlow, Essex: Longman.
22. Ferson, S. (1994). RAMAS® stage: Generalized stage-based modeling for population dynamics. Setauket, NY: Applied Biomathematics.
23. Fieberg, J. & Ellner, S.P. (2001). Stochastic matrix models for conservation biology: A comparative review of methods. Ecol. Lett. 4, 244-266.
24. Fowler, C.W. (1988). Population dynamics as related to rate of increase per generation. Evol. Ecol. 2, 197-204.
25. Frankham, R. (1996). Relationship of genetic variation to population size in wildlife. Conserv. Biol. 10, 1500-1508.
26. Frankham, R., Ballou, J.D. & Briscoe, D.A. (2002). Introduction to conservation genetics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
27. Frankham, R. & Brook, B.W. (2004). The importance of time scale in conservation biology and ecology. Ann. Zool. Fenn. 41, 459-463.
28. Futuyma, D.J. (1998). Evolutionary biology. Sunderland: Sinauer.
29. Hutton, J.M. & Dickson, B. (2000). Endangered species, threatened conservation: The past, present, and future of CITES, the convention on international trade in endangered species of wild fauna and flora. London: Earthscan.
30. IUCN. (2001). IUCN red list categories and criteria: Version 3.1. Gland, Switzerland, and Cambridge, UK: IUCN Species Survival Commission. Online version: Http://www.iucnredlist.org/info/categories_criteria2001.
31. Lacy, R.C., Hughes, K.A. & Miller, P.S. (1995). VORTEX: A stochastic simulation of the extinction process. Version 7.0 user's manual. Apple Valley, MN: IUCN/SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group.
32. Lande, R., Engen, S. & Sæther, B.-E. (2003). Stochastic population dynamics in ecology and conservation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
33. Lebreton, J-D. (2005). Dynamical and statistical models for exploited populations. Aust. N.Z. J. Stat. 47, 49-63.
34. Leigh, E.G.J. (1981). The average lifetime of a population in a varying environment. J. Theor. Biol. 90, 213-239.
35. Levins, R. (1966). The strategy of model building in population biology. Am. Sci. 54, 421-431.
36. Lindenmayer, D.B. & Possingham, H.P. (1994). The risk of extinction: ranking management options for Leadbeater's possum using population viability analysis. Canberra: Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University.
37. Master, L.L. (1991). Assessing threat and setting priorities for conservation. Conserv. Biol. 5, 559-563.
38. McCarthy, M.A. & Thompson, C. (2001). Expected minimum population size as a measure of threat. Anim. Conserv. 4, 351-355.
39. Menges, E.S. (2000). Population viability analyses in plants: Challenges and opportunities. Trends Ecol. Evol. 15, 51-56.
40. Millar, J.S. & Zammuto, R.M. (1983). Life histories of mammals: An analysis of life tables. Ecology 64, 631-635.
41. Miller, P.S. & Lacy, R.C. (2003). VORTEX: A stochastic simulation of the extinction process. Version 9.21 user's manual. Apple Valley, MN: Conservation Breeding Specialist Group (SSC/IUCN).
42. Montgomery, M.E., Woodworth, L.M., Nurthen, R.K., Gilligan, D.M., Briscoe, D.A. & Frankham, R. (2000). Relationships between population size and genetic diversity: Comparisons of experimental results with theoretical predictions. Conserv. Genet. 1, 33-43.
43. Newmark, W.D. (1995). Extinction of mammal populations in western North American national parks. Conserv. Biol. 9, 512-526.
44. O'Grady, J.J. (2002). Evaluating the accuracy of species assessment systems using population viability analysis. PhD thesis, Macquarie University, Sydney.
45. O'Grady, J.J., Burgman, M.A., Keith, D.A., Master, L.L., Andelman, S.J., Brook, B.W., Hammerson, G.A., Regan, T. & Frankham, R. (2004a). Correlations among extinction risks assessed by different systems of threatened species categorization. Conserv. Biol. 18, 1-12.
46. O'Grady, J.J., Reed, D.H., Brook, B.W. & Frankham, R. (2004b). What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk? Biol. Conserv. 118, 513-520.
47. Primack, R.B. (1998). Essentials of conservation biology. 2nd edn. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer.
48. Raven, P.H. (1995). Introduction. In Our living resources: A report to the nation on the distribution, abundance, and health of U.S. plants, animals, and ecosystems: 3-7. LaRoe, E.T., Farris, G.S., Puckett, C.E., Doran, P.D. & Mac, M.J. (Eds). Washington, DC: US Department of the Interior.
49. R Development Core Team (RDCT). (2006). A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Online version: http://www.R-project.org.
50. Reed, D.H., O'Grady, J.J., Ballou, J.D. & Frankham, R. (2003a). The frequency and severity of catastrophic die-offs in vertebrates. Anim. Conserv. 6, 109-114.
51. Reed, D.H., O'Grady, J.J., Brook, B.W., Ballou, J.D. & Frankham, R. (2003 b). Estimates of minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates and factors affecting those estimates. Biol. Conserv. 113, 23-34.
52. Roberge, J-M. & Angelstam, P. (2004). Usefulness of the umbrella species concept as a conservation tool. Conserv. Biol. 18, 76-85.
53. Sæther, B-E., Engen, S., Møller, A.P., Visser, M.E., Matthysen, E., Fiedler, W., Lambrechts, M.M., Becker, P.H., Brommer, J.E., Dickinson, J., du Feu, C., Gehlbach, F.R., Merilä, J., Rendell, W., Robertson, R.J., Thomson, D. & Török, J. (2005a). Time to extinction of bird populations. Ecology 86, 693-700.
54. Sæther, B-E., Engen, S., Møller, A.P., Weimerskirch, H., Visser, M.E., Fiedler, W., Matthysen, E., Lambrechts, M.M., Badyaev, A., Becker, P.H., Brommer, J.E., Bukacinska, M., Christensen, H., Dickinson, J., du Feu, C., Gehlbach, F.R., Heg, D., Hötker, H., Merilä, J., Nielsen, J.T., Rendell, W., Robertson, R.J., Thomson, D.L. & Van Hecke, P. (2004). Life-history variation predicts the effects of demographic stochasticity on avian population dynamics. Am. Nat. 164, 793-802.
55. Sæther, B-E., Lande, R., Engen, S., Weimerskirch, H., Lillegård, M., Altwegg, R., Becker, P.H., Bregnballe, T., Brommer, J.E., McCleery, R.H., Merilä, J., Nyholm, E., Rendell, W., Robertson, R.J., Tryjanowski, P. & Visser, M.E. (2005b). Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics. Nature 436, 99-102.
56. Sæther, B-E., Tufto, J., Engen, S., Jerstad, K., Restad, O.W. & Skåtan, J.E. (2000). Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird. Science 287, 854-856.
57. Saunders, D., Margules, C. & Hill, B. (1998). Environmental indicators for national state of the environment reporting - biodiversity, Australia: State of the environment (environmental indicator reports). Canberra, Australia: Department of the Environment.
58. Seal, U., Westley, F., Byers, O. & Ness, G. (1998). Bringing people into population and habitat viability analyses. Endang. Species Updates 15, 111-115.
59. Shaffer, M.L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. Bioscience 31, 131-134.
60. Shaffer, M.L., Watchman, L.H., Snape, W.J. III. & Latchis, J.K. (2002). Population viability analysis and conservation. In Population viability analysis: 123-142. Beissinger, S.R. & McCullough, D.R. (Eds). Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
61. Sinclair, A.R.E. (1996). Mammal populations: Fluctuation, regulation, life history theory and their implications for conservation. In Frontiers of population ecology: 127-154. Floyd, R.B., Sheppard, A.W. & De Barro, P.J. (Eds). Melbourne: CSIRO Publishing.
62. Sjögren-Gulve, P. & Ebenhard, T. (2000). The use of population viability analyses in conservation planning. Ecol. Bull. 48, 5-203.
63. Soulé, M.E. (1985). What is conservation biology? Bioscience 35, 727-734.
64. Soulé, M.E. (1987). Where do we go from here? In Viable populations for conservation: 175-183. Soulé, M.E. (Ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
65. Southwood, T.R.E. (1977). Habitat, the template for ecological strategies. J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 337-365.
66. Traill, L.W., Bradshaw, C.J.A. & Brook, B.W. (2007). Minimum viable population size: A meta-analysis of 30 years of published estimates. Biol. Conserv. 139, 159-166.