The political cost of taxation: New evidence from German popularity ratings

Electoral Studies

Volumn 27, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 633-648

  Geys, Benny ^a   Vermeir, Jan ^b  

^a WZB BERLIN SOCIAL SCIENCE CENTER   (Germany)

^b VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT BRUSSEL   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Germany; Government approval; Popularity function; Taxation

Indexed keywords

ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; FEDERAL SYSTEM; TAX SYSTEM; VOTING BEHAVIOR;

CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; GERMANY;

EID: 53549099117     PISSN: 02613794     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2008.02.008     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Anderson C. Party systems and the dynamics of government support: Britain and Germany 1960-1990. European Journal of Political Research 27 (1995) 93-118
2. Anderson C. Blaming the Government: Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies (1995), M.E. Sharpe, Armonk
3. Anderson C. Wirtschaftslage und Politischer Kontext: Kanzlerpopularität und Kanzlerparteipräferenz, 1985-1990. In: Gabriel O.W., and Falter J.W. (Eds). Wahlen und Politische Einstellungen in Westlichen Demokratien (1996), Peter Lang Verlag, Frankfurt
4. Ashworth J., and Heyndels B. Tax structure turbulence in OECD countries. Public Choice 111 (2002) 347-376
5. Ashworth J., Geys B., and Heyndels B. Determinants of tax innovation: the case of environmental taxes in Flemish municipalities. European Journal of Political Economy 22 1 (2006) 223-247
6. Berry F.S. Tax Policy Innovation in the American States (1988), UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, MI
7. Berry F.S., and Berry W.D. Tax innovation in the States: capitalizing on political opportunity. American Journal of Political Science 36 3 (1992) 715-742
8. Berry F.S., and Berry W.D. The politics of tax increases in the States. American Journal of Political Science 38 3 (1994) 855-859
9. Besley T., and Case A. Incumbent behavior: vote-seeking, tax-setting and yardstick competition. American Economic Review 85 (1995) 25-45
10. Brody R., and Sigelman L. Presidential popularity and presidential elections: an update and an extension. Public Opinion Quarterly 47 (1983) 325-328
11. Boix C. Political Parties, Growth and Equality. Conservative and Social Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy (1998), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
12. Cameron D.R. The expansion of the public economy: a comparative analysis. American Political Science Review 72 (1978) 1243-1261
13. Case A. Taxes and the electoral cycle: how sensitive are governors to coming elections?. Business Review March/April (1994) 17-26
14. Chapell H.W. Economic performance, voting and political support: a unified approach. Review of Economics and Statistics 72 (1990) 313-320
15. Cusack T.R. The shaping of popular satisfaction with government and regime performance in Germany. British Journal of Political Science 29 (1999) 641-672
16. Cuzán A.G., and Bundrick C.M. Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in Presidential elections. American Politics Quarterly 27 3 (1999) 338-353
17. Downs A. An Economic Theory of Democracy (1957), Harper and Row, New York
18. Eismeier T.J. Budgets and ballots: the political consequences of fiscal choice. In: Rae D., and Eismeier T. (Eds). Public Policy and Public Choice (1979), Sage, Beverly Hills, CA 121-149
19. Elder J., and Kennedy P.E. Testing for unit roots: what should students be taught?. Journal of Economic Education 31 2 (2001) 137-146
20. Feld L.P., and Kirchgässner G. Official and hidden unemployment and the popularity of the government: an econometric analysis for the Kohl government. Public Choice 19 (2000) 333-347
21. Feldman S., and Conley P. Explaining explanations of changing economic conditions. In: Norpoth H., Lewis-Beck M., and Lafay J.-D. (Eds). Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (1991), University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI 185-206
22. Fiorina M.P. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (1981), Yale University Press, New Haven, CT
23. Fox G., and Phillips E.N. Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000. Journal of Macroeconomics 25 (2003) 411-424
24. Frey B., and Schneider F. An empirical study of politico-economic interaction in the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics 60 (1978) 174-183
25. Frey B., and Schneider F. Popularity functions: the case of the US and West Germany. In: Whiteley P. (Ed). Models of Political Economy (1981), Sage, London 47-84
26. Fuller W.A. Introduction to Statistical Time-Series (1976), John Wiley and Sons, New York
27. Garrett G. Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (1998), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
28. Geys, B., Vermeir, J. Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence? Public Choice (in press).
29. Gibson J.G. Voter reaction to tax change: the case of the poll tax. Applied Economics 26 (1994) 877-884
30. Goergen C., and Norpoth H. Government turnover and economic accountability. Electoral Studies 10 3 (1991) 191-207
31. Goodhardt C.A.E., and Bhansali R.J. Political economy. Political Studies 18 (1970) 43-106
32. Gschwend T., and Norpoth H. Soll und Haben: Die Deutsche Wählerschaft rechnet mit den Parteien ab. In: Klein M., Jagodzinski W., Mochmann E., and Ohr D. (Eds). Fünfzig Jahre Empirische Wahlforschung in Deutschland: Entwicklung, Befunde, Perspektiven, Daten (2000), Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen 389-409
33. Guilkey D.K., and Schmidt P. An interpolation test for a unit root in the presence of drift. Biometrika 78 4 (1991) 809-815
34. Hall A. Testing for a unit root in time series with pretest data-based model selection. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12 (1994) 461-470
35. Hansen S.B. Life is not fair: governors' job performance ratings and state economies. Political Research Quarterly 52 (1999) 167-188
36. Happy J.R. The effect of economic and fiscal performance on incumbency voting: the Canadian case. British Journal of Political Science 22 (1992) 117-130
37. Hibbs Jr. D.A. Bread and peace voting in US presidential elections. Public Choice 104 (2000) 149-180
38. Hibbs Jr. D.A., and Madsen H.J. The impact of economic performance on electoral support in Sweden, 1967-1978. Scandinavian Political Studies 4 (1981) 33-50
39. Hossain F. Where the Republicans stand. International Herald Tribune (31/12/2007) 4
40. Hossain F. Where the Democrats stand. International Herald Tribune (31/12/2007) 5
41. Jacobsen G.C. The Politics of Congressional Elections (1983), Little, Brown & Co., Boston, MA
42. Johnson P., Lynch F., and Walker J.G. Income taxes and elections in Britain, 1950-2001. Electoral Studies 24 3 (2005) 393-408
43. Kelleher C.A., and Wolak J. Explaining public confidence in the branches of state government. Political Research Quarterly 60 4 (2007) 707-721
44. Kellerman C., and Rattinger H. Economic conditions, unemployment and perceived government accountability. German Politics 15 4 (2006) 460-480
45. Kernell S. Explaining presidential popularity. American Political Science Review 72 (1978) 506-522
46. Key Jr. V.O. The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960 (1966), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
47. Kinder D.R., and Kiewiet D.R. Economic discontent and political behavior: the role of personal grievances and collective economic judgments in congressional voting. American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979) 495-527
48. Kirchgässner, G., 1976. Rationales Wählerverhalten und optimales Regierungsverhalten. Dissertation. Universität Konstanz.
49. Kirchgässner G. Wirtschaftslage und Wählerverhalten: eine empirische Studie für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland von 1971-1976. Politische Vierteljahresschrift 18 (1977) 510-536
50. Kirchgässner G. Rationality, causality and the relation between economic conditions and the popularity of parties. European Economic Review 28 (1985) 243-268
51. Kirchgässner G. Causality testing of the popularity function: an empirical investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany 1971-1982. Public Choice 45 (1985) 155-173
52. Kirchgässner G. Economic conditions and the popularity of West-German parties: a survey. European Journal of Political Research 14 (1986) 421-439
53. Koester, G., 2006. Political motivation, tax policy and the development of tax structures: evidence from the German case. Mimeo.
54. Kone S.L., and Winters R.F. Taxes and voting: electoral retribution in the American states. Journal of Politics 55 (1993) 22-40
55. Landon S., and Ryan D.L. The political costs of taxes and government spending. Canadian Journal of Economics 30 (1997) 85-111
56. Lanoue D.J. Retrospective and prospective voting in presidential-year elections. Political Research Quarterly 47 1 (1994) 193-205
57. Lewis-Beck M.S. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (1988), Michigan University Press, Ann Arbor, MI
58. Lewis-Beck M.S., and Paldam M. Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral Studies 19 (2000) 113-121
59. Lohmann S. Federalism and central bank independence: the politics of German monetary policy, 1957-1992. World Politics 50 (1998) 401-446
60. Lowry R.C., Alt J.E., and Ferree K.E. Fiscal policy outcomes and electoral accountability in American states. American Political Science Review 92 (1998) 759-774
61. MacDonald J.A., and Sigelman L. Public assessments of gubernatorial performance. A comparative state analysis. American Politics Quarterly 27 (1999) 201-215
62. Maddala G.S., and Kim I.M. Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change (2004), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
63. Maier J., and Rattinger H. Economic conditions and the 1994 and 1998 federal elections. German Politics 8 2 (1999) 33-47
64. Maier J., and Rattinger H. Economic conditions and voting behaviour in German federal elections 1994-2002. German Politics 13 2 (2004) 201-217
65. Mikesell J.L. Election periods and state tax policy cycles. Public Choice 33 (1978) 99-105
66. Miller W.L., and Mackie M. The electoral cycle and the asymmetry of government and opposition popularity: an alternative model of the relationship between economic conditions and popularity. Political Studies 21 (1973) 263-279
67. Mueller J. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review 64 (1970) 18-34
68. Nannestad P., and Paldam M. The VP-function: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years. Public Choice 79 (1994) 213-245
69. Niemi R.G., Stanley H.W., and Vogel R.J. State economies and state taxes: do voters hold governors accountable?. American Journal of Political Science 39 (1995) 936-957
70. Niskanen W.A. Bureaucrats and politicians. Journal of Law and Economics 18 (1975) 617-643
71. Niskanen W.A. Economic and fiscal effects on the popular vote for the president. In: Rae D., and Eismeier T. (Eds). Public Policy and Public Choice (1979), Sage, Beverly Hills, CA 93-120
72. Norpoth H., and Goergen C. Regierungspopularität auf Kredit: Wirtschaftsbilanz, Wende und Wählerwille. In: Kaase M., and Klingemenn H.-D. (Eds). Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 1987 (1990), Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen
73. Norpoth H., and Gschwend T. The Red-Green victory: against all odds?. German Politics and Society 21 (2003) 15-34
74. Norpoth H., and Yantek T. Von Adenauer bis Schmidt: Wirtschaftslage und Kanzlerpopularität. In: Kaase M., and Klingemenn H.-D. (Eds). Wahlen und Politisches System (1983), Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen
75. Paldam M. How robust in the vote function? A study of seventeen nations over four decades. In: Norpoth H., Lewis-Beck M., and Lafay J.-D. (Eds). Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (1991), University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI 9-31
76. Paldam M., and Schneider F. The macro-economic aspects of government and opposition popularity in Denmark 1957-78. Nationalokonomisk Tidsskrift 2 (1980) 149-170
77. Peltzman S. Voters as fiscal conservatives. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (1992) 327-361
78. Pissarides C.A. British government popularity and economic performance. The Economic Journal 90 (1980) 569-581
79. Pomper G.M. Elections in America: Control and Influence in American Politics (1968), Dodd, Mead & Company, New York
80. Ramsey J.B. Tests for specification error in classical least squares regression analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B31 (1969) 250-271
81. Rattinger H. Auswirkungen der Arbeitsmarktklage auf das Ergebnis der Bundestagwahl 1976. Politische Vierteljahresschrift 20 1 (1979) 51-70
82. Rattinger H. Collective and individual economic judgments and voting in West Germany 1961-1984. European Journal of Political Research 14 (1986) 393-419
83. Rattinger H. Konjunkturentwicklung, Wahrnehmungen der Wirtschaftslage und Parteipräferenzen in Deutschland, 1977-1998. In: Klein M., Jagodzinski W., Mochmann E., and Ohr D. (Eds). Fünfzig Jahre Empirische Wahlforschung in Deutschland: Entwicklung, Befunde, Perspektiven, Daten (2000), Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen 309-339
84. Rogoff K., and Sibert A. Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economic Studies 55 (1988) 1-16
85. Schächter A., and Stokman A.C.J. Interest rate policy of the deutsche Bundesbank: an econometric analysis for 1975 to 1992. De Economist 143 4 (1995) 475-494
86. Schimek M. Empirische Legitimierungsmodelle für die Periode 1970-1981 der Sozialliberalen Regierung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. In: Kaase M., and Klingemenn H.-D. (Eds). Wahlen und Politischer Prozess (1986), Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen
87. Schmitt H., and Wüst A. The extraordinary Bundestag election of 2005: the interplay of long-term trends and short-term factors. German Politics and Society 24 1 (2006) 27-46
88. Schwert G.W. Test for unit roots: a Monte Carlo investigation. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 7 (1989) 147-159
89. Sigelman L. Presidential popularity and presidential elections. Public Opinion Quarterly 43 (1979) 532-534
90. Smyth D.J., and Dua P. The public's indifference map between inflation and unemployment: empirical evidence for the Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan presidencies. Public Choice 60 (1989) 71-85
91. Sobel R.S. The political costs of tax increases and expenditure reductions: evidence from state legislative turnover. Public Choice 96 (1998) 61-79
92. Stults, B.G., Winters, R.F., 2005. The political economy of taxes and the vote. Mimeo.
93. Turett S. The vulnerability of American governors, 1900-1969. Midwest Journal of Political Science 15 (1971) 108-132
94. Veiga F.J., and Veiga L.G. The determinants of vote intentions in Portugal. Public Choice 118 3-4 (2004) 341-364
95. Vermeir, J., 2006. Essays on Elections and Coalition Formation. Doctoral Dissertation, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels (unpublished).