Gradual or pulsed evolution: When should punctuational explanations be preferred?

Paleobiology

Volumn 34, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 360-377

  Hunt, Gene ^a  

^a DEPARTMENT OF PALEOBIOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION; EVOLUTIONARY THEORY; MODELING; RANDOM WALK METHOD; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

FORAMINIFERA; GLOBOROTALIA;

EID: 50249174012     PISSN: 00948373     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1666/07073.1     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Akaike, H. 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19:716-723.
2. Anderson, D. R., K. P. Burnham, and W. L. Thompson. 2000. Null hypothesis testing: problems, prevalence, and an alternative. Journal of Wildlife Management 64:912-923.
3. Bookstein, E L. 1987. Random walk and the existence of evolutionary rates. Paleobiology 13:446-464.
4. Bookstein, F. L., P. D. Gingerich, and A. G. Kluge. 1978. Hierarchical linear modeling of the tempo and mode of evolution. Paleobiology 4:120-134.
5. Brett, C. E., and G. C. Baird. 2002. Revised stratigraphy of the Trenton Group in its type area, central New York State: sedimentology and tectonics of a Middle Ordovician shelf-to-basin succession. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27:231-263.
6. Burnham, K. P., and D. R. Anderson. 2004. Multimodel inference. Understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Sociological Methods and Research 33:261-304.
7. Butler, M. A., and A. A. King. 2004. Phylogenetic comparative analysis: a modeling approach for adaptive evolution. American Naturalist 164:683-695.
8. Charlesworth, B. 1984. Some quantitative methods for studying evolutionary patterns in single characters. Paleobiology 10: 308-318.
9. Cisne, J. L., and B. D. Rabe. 1978. Coenocorrelation: gradient analysis of fossil communities and its applications to stratigraphy. Lethaia 11:341-364.
10. Cisne, J. L., G. O. Chandlee, B. D. Rabe, and J. A. Cohen. 1980. Geographic variation and episodic evolution in an Ordovician trilobite. Science 209:925-927.
11. Eldredge, N., and S. J. Gould. 1972. Punctuated equilibria: an alternative to phyletic gradualism. Pp. 82-115 in T. J. M. Schopf, ed. Models in paleobiology. Freeman, Cooper, San Francisco.
12. Eldredge, N., J. N. Thompson, P. M. Brakefield, S. Gavrilets, D. Jablonski, J. B. C. Jackson, R. E. Lenski, B. S. Lieberman, M. A. McPeek, and W. I. Miller. 2005. The dynamics of evolutionary stasis. In E. S. Vrba and N. Eldredge, eds. Macroevolution: diversity, disparity, contingency. Paleobiology 31(Suppl. to No. 2):133-145.
13. Erwin, D. H., and R. L. Anstey. 1995. Speciation in the fossil record. Pp. 11-38 in D. H. Erwin and R. L. Anstey, eds. New approaches to speciation in the fossil record. Columbia University Press, New York.
14. Estes, S., and S. J. Arnold. 2007. Resolving the paradox of stasis: models with stabilizing selection explain evolutionary divergence on all timescales. American Naturalist 169:227-244.
15. Forster, M. 2001. The new science of simplicity. Pp. 83-119 in A. Zellner, A. Keuzenkamp, and M. McAleer, eds. Simplicity, inference and modelling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
16. Forster, M., and E. Sober. 1994. How to tell when simpler, more unified or less ad hoc theories will provide more accurate predictions. British Journal of the Philosophy of Science 45:1-35.
17. Fortey, R. A. 1985. Gradualism and punctuated equilibria as competing and complementary theories. Special Papers in Palaeontology 33:17-28.
18. Gingerich, P. D. 1985. Species in the fossil record: concepts, trends, and transitions. Paleobiology 11:27-41.
19. Gingerich, P. D. 1993. Quantification and comparison of evolutionary rates. American Journal of Science 293-A:453-478.
20. Gould, S. J. 2002. The structure of evolutionary theory. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
21. Gould, S. J., and N. Eldredge. 1977. Punctuated equilibria: the tempo and mode of evolution reconsidered. Paleobiology 3: 115-151.
22. Gradstein, F. M., J. G. Ogg, and A. G. Smith, eds. 2004. A geological time scale 2004. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
23. Hannisdal, B. 2006. Phenotypic evolution in the fossil record: numerical experiments. Journal of Geology 114:133-153.
24. Hannisdal, B. 2007. Inferring phenotypic evolution in the fossil record by Bayesian inversion. Paleobiology 33:98-115.
25. Hansen, T. F. 1997. Stabilizing selection and the comparative analysis of adaptation. Evolution 51:1341-1351.
26. Hansen, T. F., and E. P. Martins. 1996. Translating between microevolutionary process and macroevolutionary patterns: the correlation structure of interspecific data. Evolution 50:1404-1417.
27. Hoffman, A. 1989. Arguments on evolution. Oxford University Press, New York.
28. Hunt, G. 2004. Phenotypic variation in fossil samples: modeling the consequences of time-averaging. Paleobiology 30:426-443.
29. Hunt, G. 2006. Fitting and comparing models of phyletic evolution: random walks and beyond. Paleobiology 32:578-601.
30. Hunt, G. 2007. The relative importance of directional change, random walks, and stasis in the evolution of fossil lineages. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104: 18404-18408.
31. Hunt, G. 2008. PaleoTS: modeling evolution in paleontological time-series, Version 0.3-1.
32. Hunt, G., M. A. Bell, and M. P. Travis. 2008. Evolution toward a new adaptive optimum: phenotypic evolution in a fossil stickleback lineage. Evolution 62:700-710.
33. Hurvich, C. M., and C.-L. Tsai. 1989. Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika 76:297-307.
34. Jackson, J. B. C., and A. H. Cheetham. 1999. Tempo and mode of speciation in the sea. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14: 72-77.
35. Kalinowski, S. T., and M. L. Taper. 2005. Likelihood-based confidence intervals of relative fitness for a common experimental design. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 62:693-699.
36. Kellogg, D. E. 1975. The role of phyletic change in the evolution of Pseudocubus vema. Paleobiology 1:359-370.
37. Kitchell, J. A., G. Estabrook, and N. MacLeod. 1987. Testing for equality of rates of evolution. Paleobiology 13:272-285.
38. Levinton, J. S. 2001. Genetics, paleontology, and macroevolution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
39. Link, W. A., and R. J. Barker. 2006. Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference. Ecology 87:2626-2635.
40. Lovy, D. 1996. WinDig, Version 2. 5.
41. MacLeod, N. 1991. Punctuated anagenesis and the importance of stratigraphy to paleobiology. Paleobiology 17:167-188.
42. Malmgren, B. A., W. A. Berggren, and G. P. Lohmann. 1983. Evidence for punctuated gradualism in the Late Neogene Globorotalia tumida lineage of planktonic foraminifera. Paleobiology 9:377-389.
43. Martins, E. P., J. A. F. Diniz-Filho, and E. A. Housworth. 2002. Adaptive constraints and the phylogenetic comparative method: a computer simulation test. Evolution 56:1-13.
44. Meeker, W. Q., and L. A. Escobar. 1995. Teaching about approximate confidence regions based on maximum likelihood estimation. American Statistician 49:48-53.
45. R Development Core Team. 2007. R: a language and environment for statistical computing, Version 2.6.1. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna.
46. Roopnarine, P. D. 2001. The description and classification of evolutionary mode: a computational approach. Paleobiology 27: 446-465.
47. Roopnarine, P. D., G. Byars, and P. Fitzgerald. 1999. Anagenetic evolution, stratophenetic patterns, and random walk models. Paleobiology 25:41-57.
48. Sheets, H. D., and C. E. Mitchell. 2001. Why the null matters: statistical tests, random walks and evolution. Genetica 112-113:105-125.
49. Wagner, P. J. 2000. Likelihood tests of hypothesized durations: determining and accommodating biasing factors. Paleobiology 26:431-449.