메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 32, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 279-291

Analyzing the performance of risk assessment instruments: A response to vrieze and grove (2007)

Author keywords

Actuarial judgment; Cut off selection; Receiver operating characteristic; Recidivism; Risk assessment; ROC area; Sex offender statutes; Test validation

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY; AREA UNDER THE CURVE; HUMAN; LEGAL ASPECT; NOTE; PREDICTIVE VALIDITY; RECIDIVISM; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEXUAL CRIME; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 43749114332     PISSN: 01477307     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10979-007-9123-7     Document Type: Note
Times cited : (13)

References (57)
  • 2
    • 2442695245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What you see may not be what you get: A brief, nontechnical introduction to overfitting in regression-type models
    • Babyak, M. A. (2004). What you see may not be what you get: a brief, nontechnical introduction to overfitting in regression-type models. Psychosomatic Medicine, 66, 411-421.
    • (2004) Psychosomatic Medicine , vol.66 , pp. 411-421
    • Babyak, M.A.1
  • 5
    • 0000460102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interval estimation for a binomial proportion (with discussion)
    • Brown, L. D., Cai, T., & DasGupta, A. (2001). Interval estimation for a binomial proportion (with discussion). Statistical Science, 16, 101-133.
    • (2001) Statistical Science , vol.16 , pp. 101-133
    • Brown, L.D.1    Cai, T.2    Dasgupta, A.3
  • 6
    • 43749096952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commonwealth v. Boucher, 438 Mass. 274, 780 N.E.2d 47 (2002).
    • Commonwealth v. Boucher, 438 Mass. 274, 780 N.E.2d 47 (2002).
  • 7
    • 0024981793 scopus 로고
    • Clinical versus actuarial judgment
    • Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science, 243, 1668-1674.
    • (1989) Science , vol.243 , pp. 1668-1674
    • Dawes, R.M.1    Faust, D.2    Meehl, P.E.3
  • 8
    • 33644898746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What "shrinkage" of the MnSOST-R? a response to Wollert (2002b)
    • Doren, D. M., & Dow, E. A. (2003). What "shrinkage" of the MnSOST-R? A response to Wollert (2002b). Journal of Threat Assessment, 2, 49-64.
    • (2003) Journal of Threat Assessment , vol.2 , pp. 49-64
    • Doren, D.M.1    Dow, E.A.2
  • 11
    • 43749101458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Presentation at the NASMHPD Research Institute, May 7, 2007, viewable at (site visited July 9, 2007)
    • Fitch, L. W. (2007). State hospitals and the future of forensic services. Presentation at the NASMHPD Research Institute, May 7, 2007, viewable at http://www.nasmhpd.org/HospSummit07.cfm (site visited July 9, 2007).
    • (2007) State Hospitals and the Future of Forensic Services
    • Fitch, L.W.1
  • 12
    • 43749102827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (April 19) Minnesota Public Radio broadcast, text available at (last accessed June 12, 2007)
    • Gunderson, D. (April 19, 2004). Critics charge sex offender screening tool doesn't work. Minnesota Public Radio broadcast, text available at http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2004/04/19_gundersond_mnsostr/ (last accessed June 12, 2007).
    • (2004) Critics Charge Sex Offender Screening Tool Doesn't Work
    • Gunderson, D.1
  • 13
    • 0023780330 scopus 로고
    • The robustness of the 'binormal' assumptions used in fitting ROC curves
    • Hanley, J. A. (1988). The robustness of the 'binormal' assumptions used in fitting ROC curves. Medical Decision Making, 8, 197-203.
    • (1988) Medical Decision Making , vol.8 , pp. 197-203
    • Hanley, J.A.1
  • 14
    • 0020083498 scopus 로고
    • The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve
    • Hanley, J. A., & McNeil, B. J. (1982). The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 143, 29-36.
    • (1982) Radiology , vol.143 , pp. 29-36
    • Hanley, J.A.1    McNeil, B.J.2
  • 17
    • 0033965311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales
    • Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
    • (2000) Law and Human Behavior , vol.24 , pp. 119-136
    • Hanson, R.K.1    Thornton, D.2
  • 18
    • 0030069896 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariable prognostic models: Issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors
    • Harrell, F. E., Lee, K. L., & Mark, D. B. (1996). Multivariable prognostic models: Issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors. Statistics in Medicine, 15, 361-387.
    • (1996) Statistics in Medicine , vol.15 , pp. 361-387
    • Harrell, F.E.1    Lee, K.L.2    Mark, D.B.3
  • 19
    • 84891325204 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterizing the value of actuarial violence risk assessment
    • (in press)
    • Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (in press). Characterizing the value of actuarial violence risk assessment. Criminal Justice and Behavior.
    • Criminal Justice and Behavior
    • Harris, G.T.1    Rice, M.E.2
  • 20
    • 34248149030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the 'margins of error' of group v. individual predictions of violence
    • Hart, S. D., Michie, C., & Cooke, D. J. (2007). Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: Evaluating the 'margins of error' of group v. individual predictions of violence. British Journal of Psychiatry, 49, s60-s65.
    • (2007) British Journal of Psychiatry , vol.49
    • Hart, S.D.1    Michie, C.2    Cooke, D.J.3
  • 21
    • 67349101836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (September). Available at (site visited October 11, 2007)
    • Human Rights Watch. (September 2007). No easy answers: Sex offender laws in the US. Available at http://hrw.org/reports/2007/us0907/ (site visited October 11, 2007).
    • (2007) No Easy Answers: Sex Offender Laws in the US
  • 22
    • 43749098472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In re Detention of Brooks, 36 P.3d 1034 (Wash. 2001).
    • In re Detention of Brooks, 36 P.3d 1034 (Wash. 2001).
  • 23
    • 43749116605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In the Matter of the Commitment of W. Z., 773 A.2d 97 (N. J. Super. Ct. App. Div. 2001).
    • In the Matter of the Commitment of W. Z., 773 A.2d 97 (N. J. Super. Ct. App. Div. 2001).
  • 24
    • 11144264533 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sexually violent predator laws: Psychiatry in service to a morally dubious enterprise
    • Janus, E. S. (2004). Sexually violent predator laws: Psychiatry in service to a morally dubious enterprise. Lancet, 364, s50-s51.
    • (2004) Lancet , vol.364
    • Janus, E.S.1
  • 25
    • 2442561637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forensic use of actuarial risk assessment with sex offenders: Accuracy, admissibility and accountability
    • Janus, E. S., & Prentky, R. A. (2003). Forensic use of actuarial risk assessment with sex offenders: Accuracy, admissibility and accountability. American Criminal Law Review, 40, 1443-1499.
    • (2003) American Criminal Law Review , vol.40 , pp. 1443-1499
    • Janus, E.S.1    Prentky, R.A.2
  • 26
    • 33846170105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffense among adult sex offenders: Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments
    • Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Peacock, E. J., Harkins, L., & Hansen, K. T. (2007). Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffense among adult sex offenders: Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 37-59.
    • (2007) Criminal Justice and Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 37-59
    • Langton, C.M.1    Barbaree, H.E.2    Seto, M.C.3    Peacock, E.J.4    Harkins, L.5    Hansen, K.T.6
  • 27
    • 34548278655 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Social policies designed to prevent sexual violence: The emperor's new clothes?
    • Levenson, J. S., & D'Amora, D. A. (2007). Social policies designed to prevent sexual violence: The emperor's new clothes? Criminal Justice Policy Review, 18, 168-199.
    • (2007) Criminal Justice Policy Review , vol.18 , pp. 168-199
    • Levenson, J.S.1    D'Amora, D.A.2
  • 28
    • 0001632330 scopus 로고
    • Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns or cutting scores
    • Meehl, P. E., & Rosen, A. (1955). Antecedent probability and the efficiency of psychometric signs, patterns or cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin, 52, 194-216.
    • (1955) Psychological Bulletin , vol.52 , pp. 194-216
    • Meehl, P.E.1    Rosen, A.2
  • 29
    • 3042565701 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accessible at (site visited July 9, 2007)
    • Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary. (2007). Accessible at http://www.m-w.com/ (site visited July 9, 2007).
    • (2007) Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary
  • 30
    • 16344382058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty distribution associated with estimating a proportion in microbial risk assessment
    • Miconnet, N., Cornu, M., Beaufort, A., Rosso, L., & Denis, J.-B. (2005). Uncertainty distribution associated with estimating a proportion in microbial risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 25, 39-48.
    • (2005) Risk Analysis , vol.25 , pp. 39-48
    • Miconnet, N.1    Cornu, M.2    Beaufort, A.3    Rosso, L.4    Denis, J.-B.5
  • 31
    • 18444392688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sexually violent predator evaluations: Empirical evidence, strategies for professionals, and research directions
    • Miller, H. A., Amenta, A., & Conroy, M. (2005). Sexually violent predator evaluations: Empirical evidence, strategies for professionals, and research directions. Law and Human Behavior, 29, 29-54.
    • (2005) Law and Human Behavior , vol.29 , pp. 29-54
    • Miller, H.A.1    Amenta, A.2    Conroy, M.3
  • 32
    • 33745216196 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A jurisprudence of risk assessment: Forecasting harm among prisoners, predators, and patients
    • Monahan, J. (2006). A jurisprudence of risk assessment: Forecasting harm among prisoners, predators, and patients. Virginia Law Review, 92, 391-435.
    • (2006) Virginia Law Review , vol.92 , pp. 391-435
    • Monahan, J.1
  • 34
    • 0001035530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law
    • Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (1996). Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law. American Psychologist, 51, 931-938.
    • (1996) American Psychologist , vol.51 , pp. 931-938
    • Monahan, J.1    Steadman, H.J.2
  • 35
    • 0027994632 scopus 로고
    • Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy
    • Mossman, D. (1994a). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783-792.
    • (1994) Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology , vol.62 , pp. 783-792
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 36
    • 21844491170 scopus 로고
    • Further comments on portraying the accuracy of violence predictions
    • Mossman, D. (1994b). Further comments on portraying the accuracy of violence predictions. Law and Human Behavior, 18, 587-593.
    • (1994) Law and Human Behavior , vol.18 , pp. 587-593
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 37
    • 0345891140 scopus 로고
    • Dangerousness decisions: An essay on the mathematics of clinical violence predictions and involuntary hospitalization
    • Mossman, D. (1995). Dangerousness decisions: An essay on the mathematics of clinical violence predictions and involuntary hospitalization. University of Chicago Law School Roundtable, 2, 95-138.
    • (1995) University of Chicago Law School Roundtable , vol.2 , pp. 95-138
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 38
    • 0033047873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Plotting ROC curves: Giving us fits
    • Mossman, D. (1999). Plotting ROC curves: Giving us fits. Medical Decision Making, 19, 214-215.
    • (1999) Medical Decision Making , vol.19 , pp. 214-215
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 39
    • 0033774739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commentary: Assessing the risk of violence - Are "accurate" predictions useful?
    • Mossman, D. (2000). Commentary: Assessing the risk of violence - are "accurate" predictions useful? Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 28, 272-281.
    • (2000) Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law , vol.28 , pp. 272-281
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 41
    • 34147184186 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Critique of pure risk assessment, or Kant meets Tarasoff
    • Mossman, D. (2006b). Critique of pure risk assessment, or Kant meets Tarasoff. University of Cincinnati Law Review, 75, 523-609.
    • (2006) University of Cincinnati Law Review , vol.75 , pp. 523-609
    • Mossman, D.1
  • 42
    • 0027280004 scopus 로고
    • How bad is civil commitment? a study of attitudes toward violence and involuntary hospitalization
    • Mossman, D., & Hart, K. J. (1993). How bad is civil commitment? A study of attitudes toward violence and involuntary hospitalization. Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 21, 181-194.
    • (1993) Bulletin of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law , vol.21 , pp. 181-194
    • Mossman, D.1    Hart, K.J.2
  • 43
  • 44
    • 84858091413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Available at (site visited July 13, 2007)
    • National Climatic Data Center. (2006). Comparative Climatic Data - 2006. Available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html (site visited July 13, 2007).
    • (2006) Comparative Climatic Data - 2006
  • 45
    • 43749092711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • People vs. Ghilotti, 44 P.3d 949 (Cal. 2002).
    • People vs. Ghilotti, 44 P.3d 949 (Cal. 2002).
  • 48
    • 33644836485 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC, Cohen's d and r
    • Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC, Cohen's d and r. Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615-620.
    • (2005) Law and Human Behavior , vol.29 , pp. 615-620
    • Rice, M.E.1    Harris, G.T.2
  • 50
    • 0027729155 scopus 로고
    • A neural-network approach to predicting admission decisions in a psychiatric emergency room
    • Somoza, E., & Somoza, J. R. (1993). A neural-network approach to predicting admission decisions in a psychiatric emergency room. Medical Decision Making, 13, 273-280.
    • (1993) Medical Decision Making , vol.13 , pp. 273-280
    • Somoza, E.1    Somoza, J.R.2
  • 51
    • 1642475353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expert testimony in sexually violent predator commitments: Conceptualizing legal standards of "mental disorder" and "likely to reoffend"
    • Sreenivasan, S., Weinberger, L. E., & Garrick, T. (2003). Expert testimony in sexually violent predator commitments: Conceptualizing legal standards of "mental disorder" and "likely to reoffend". Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 31, 471-485.
    • (2003) Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law , vol.31 , pp. 471-485
    • Sreenivasan, S.1    Weinberger, L.E.2    Garrick, T.3
  • 52
    • 43749117244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • State v. Curiel, 227 Wis. 2d 389, 597 N.W.2d 712 (1999).
    • State v. Curiel, 227 Wis. 2d 389, 597 N.W.2d 712 (1999).
  • 53
    • 0022609893 scopus 로고
    • Indices of discrimination and diagnostic accuracy: Their ROCs and implied models
    • Swets, J. A. (1986). Indices of discrimination and diagnostic accuracy: Their ROCs and implied models. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 100-117.
    • (1986) Psychological Bulletin , vol.99 , pp. 100-117
    • Swets, J.A.1
  • 54
    • 43749087419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting sex offender recidivism. I. Correcting for item overselection and accuracy overestimation in scale development. II. Sampling error-induced attenuation of predictive validity over base rate information
    • (published online 3 July). 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x.
    • Vrieze, S. I., & Grove, W. M. (published online 3 July 2007). Predicting sex offender recidivism. I. Correcting for item overselection and accuracy overestimation in scale development. II. Sampling error-induced attenuation of predictive validity over base rate information. Law and Human Behavior, 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x.
    • (2007) Law and Human Behavior
    • Vrieze, S.I.1    Grove, W.M.2
  • 55
    • 3543064695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of cross-validation in actuarial test construction: Shrinkage in the risk estimates for the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised
    • Wollert, R. (2003). The importance of cross-validation in actuarial test construction: Shrinkage in the risk estimates for the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised. Journal of Threat Assessment, 2, 87-102.
    • (2003) Journal of Threat Assessment , vol.2 , pp. 87-102
    • Wollert, R.1
  • 56
    • 33644896227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's Theorem
    • Wollert, R. (2006). Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually violent predators: An application of Bayes's Theorem. Psychology, Public Policy & Law, 12, 56-85.
    • (2006) Psychology, Public Policy & Law , vol.12 , pp. 56-85
    • Wollert, R.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.