What "shrinkage" of the MnSOST-R? A response to Wollert (2002b)

Journal of Threat Assessment

Volumn 2, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 49-64

  Doren, Dennis M ^a   Dow, Edward A ^b  

^a Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center   (United States)

^b Triant Technologies Corporation   (United States)

Author keywords

Actuarial risk; Cross validation shrinkage; MnSOST R; Recidivism risk; Risk assessment

Indexed keywords

EID: 33644898746     PISSN: 15332608     EISSN: 15332616     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1300/J177v02n04_04     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. American Psychiatric Association (2000). Diagnostic and Statistical Manual-Volume IV-Text Revision. Washington, DC: American Psychiatric Association.
2. Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C.,&Peacock, E. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice & Behavior, 28, 490-521.
3. Bartosh, D. L., Garby, T., Lewis, D.,&Gray, S. (in press). Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology.
4. Bradley, M., & Epperson, D. L. (2001). Inter-rater reliability study of the MnSOST-R. Unpublished research.
5. Darlington, R. B. (1975). Radicals and squares: Statistical methods for the behavioral sciences. Ithaca, NY: Logan Hill Press.
6. Doren, D. M. (1998). Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the "sexual predator" commitment laws. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16, 97-114.
7. Doren, D. M. (2002). Evaluating sex offenders: A manual for civil commitments and beyond. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
8. Epperson, D. L. (2000, March). Updated research on the MnSOST-R: A year of research and use in perspective. Presentation given at the Sex Offender Re-Offense Risk Prediction Symposium, Sinclair Seminars, Madison, WI.
9. Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., Huot, S. J., Hesselton, D., Alexander, W., & Gilman, M. (2000, November). Cross-validation of the Minnesota sex offender screening tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). Paper presented at the 19th annual Research and Treatment Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Diego, CA.
10. Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., Huot, S. J., Hesselton, D., Alexander, W., & Goldman, R. (1999). Minnesota sex offender screening tool-revised (MnSOST-R): Development, performance, and recommended risk level cut scores. Available at: http://129.186.143.73/faculty/epperson/mnsost_download.htm.
11. Fanning, T., Zimmel, T., Jaskulske, D., & Curran, S. (1999). An assessment of recidivism in juvenile/young adult sex offenders. Unpublished research.
12. Hanson, R. K. & Bussière, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-362.
13. Hanson, R. K., Steffy, R. A.,&Gauthier, R. (1993). Long-term recidivism of child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61, 646-652.
14. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
15. Langton, C. M. (2003). Contrasting approaches to risk assessment with adult male sexual offenders: An evaluation of recidivism prediction schemes and the utility of supplementary clinical information for enhancing predictive accuracy. Dissertation from the Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto.
16. Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E.,&Seto, M. C. (2002, October). Evaluating the predictive validity of seven risk assessment instruments for sex offenders: Comparing actuarial and structured clinical approaches. Paper presented at the 21st Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Montreal, Quebec.
17. Lloyd, M. D., & Grove, W. M. (2002). The uselessness of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) in commitment decisions. Manuscript submitted for publication.
18. Prentky, R. A., Lee, A. F. S., Knight, R. A., & Cerce, D. (1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists:Amethodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 635-659.
19. Quackenbush, R. (2000). The assessment of sex offenders in Ireland and the Irish sex offender risk tool. Unpublished manuscript.
20. Roberts, C. F., Doren, D. M., & Thornton, D. (2002). Dimensions associated with assessments of sex offender recidivism risk. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 29, 569-589.
21. Williams, S. (1998, October). Assessment, treatment, and follow-up of female sex offenders. Presentation at the 17th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Vancouver, British Columbia.
22. Wollert, R. W. (2002b). The importance of cross-validation in actuarial test construction: Shrinkage in the risk estimates for the Minnesota sex offender screening tool-revised. Journal of Threat Assessment, 2(1), 87-102.
23. Wollert, R. W. (2002a). Additional flaws in the Minnesota sex offender screening tool-revised: A response to Doren and Dow (2002). Journal of Threat Assessment, 2(4), 65-78.