World population futures

Population Bulletin

Volumn 56, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 3-39

  O'Neill, Brian ^a   Balk, Deborah ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 4344611946     PISSN: 0032468X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (114)

1. These definitions, while necessarily subjective, are based on the makeup of the population of childbearing age (approximately ages 15 to 50) in the future. The size of the childbearing population is key to the number of children born each year and, therefore, to population growth rates. Fifteen years into the future, the entire childbearing population will consist of people already alive today, reducing uncertainty about the size of this group. Fifty years into the future, the entire childbearing population will consist of people not yet born, making the size of the group especially uncertain. We therefore use these time horizons to define short-, medium-, and long-term projections of world and regional populations. These definitions would not necessarily apply to smaller populations where migration play's a larger role, such as the population of a city or state.
2. Dennis A. Ahlburg and K.C. Land, "Population Forecasting: Guest Editors' Introduction," International Journal of Forecasting 8, no. 3 (1992): 289-99;
3. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), Multilingual Demographic Dictionary - English (Liege, Bel gium: Ed. Ordina Editions, 1982);
4. and Wolfgang Lutz, Joshua R. Goldstein, and Christopher Prinz, "Alternative Approaches to Population Projections," in The Future Population of The World: What Can We Assume Today? ed. W. Lutz (London: Earthscan Publication Ltd., 1996): 14-44.
5. G. Fischer and Gerhard Heilig, "Population Momentum and the Demand on Land and Water Resources," Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences 352, no. 1356 (1997): 869-88;
6. Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 2000);
7. D. Tilman, J. Fargione, B. Wolff, et al., "Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change," Science 292 (13 April 2001): 281-84;
8. and John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, eds., Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2000).
9. The first of these is My T. Vu, World Population Projections 1984: Short- and Long-term Estimates by Age and Sex with Related Demographic Statistics (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1984);
10. and the last is Eduard Bos, My T. Vu, Ernest Massiah, and Rodolfo Bulatao. World Population Projections 1994-95: Estimates and Projections with Related Demographic Statistics (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press for the World Bank, 1994). Their initial long-term projections went out to 2155. Until the 1992-1993 series, the World Bank projections included only one variant. The 1992-93 and 1994-1995 projection series have a "base-case" and two alternative projections that assume either slow or rapid fertility decline.
11. U.S. Bureau of the Census, World Population Profile 1985 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, 1985).
12. Wolfgang Lutz, "Scenario Analysis in Population Projection," WP-95-57 (Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1995);
13. Wolfgang Lutz, ed., The Future Population of The World: What Can We Assume Today? (London: Earthscan Publications Ltd., 1996);
14. and Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov, "The End of World Population Growth," Nature 412 (Aug. 2, 2001): 543-48.
15. Exceptions are the UN, which does not use the cohort-component method for 41 countries or areas whose populations were below 150,000 in 1995, and the U.S. Census Bureau, which uses an alternative method for 14 small countries or territories with a combined total 1998 population of about 800,000 people. These exceptions make up only a small fraction of the global population.
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17. and Frank W. Notestein, "Population: The Long View," in Food for the World, ed. T.W. Schultz (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1945): 36-69. Prior to development of the cohort-component method, the few global population projections that had been made were based on extrapolations of the population growth rate applied to estimates of the total population of the world.
18. Nico Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations (Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger, 1990).
19. Hania Zlotnik, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, Working Paper no. 19 (Paper presented at the Joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Demographic Projections, Perugia, Italy, May 3-7, 1999).
20. Brian C. O'Neill, Sergei Scherbov, and Wolfgang Lutz, "The Long-Term Effect of the Timing of Fertility Decline on Population Size," Population and Development Review 25, no. 4 (1999): 749-56.
21. John Knodel and Etienne van de Walle, "Lessons from the Past: Policy Implications of Historical Fertility Studies," Population and Development Review 5, no. 2 (1979): 217-45.
22. Barney Cohen, "The Emerging Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development 26, no. 8 (1998): 1431-61.
23. Dirk J. van de Kaa, "Anchored Narratives: The Story and Findings of Half a Century of Research Into the Determinants of Fertility," Population Studies 50, no. 3 (1996): 389-432.
24. Warren C. Robinson, "The Economic Theory of Fertility Over Three Decades," Population Studies 51, no. 1 (1997): 63-74;
25. Karen Oppenheim Mason, "Explaining Fertility Transitions," Demography 34, no. 4 (1997): 443-54;
26. Dudley Kirk, "Demographic Transition Theory," Population Studies 50, no. 3 (1996): 361-87;
27. and Charles Hirschman, "Why Fertility Changes," Annual Review of Sociology 20 (1994): 203-33.
28. Although family planning programs have been the main policy intervention to lower fertility, these programs have often been implemented concomitantly with general economic development programs, educational programs, and health programs, each of which may have an indirect effect on fertility.
29. Malcolm Potts, "The Unmet Need for Family Planning," Scientific American (January 2000): 88-93.
30. John Bongaarts and Judith Bruce, "The Causes of Unmet Need for Contraception and the Social Content of Services," Studies in Family Planning 26, no. 2 (1995): 57-75.
31. Lant H. Pritchett, "Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies," Population and Development Review 20, no. 1 (1994): 1-55;
32. and Lant H. Pritchett, "The Impact of Population Policies: Reply," Population and Development Review 20, no. 3 (1994): 621-30.
33. John Bongaarts, "Population Policy Options in the Developing World," Science 263 (1994): 771-76;
34. and John Bongaarts, "The Role of Family Planning Programmes in Contemporary Fertility Transitions," in The Continuing Demographic Transition, ed. G.W. Jones, R.M. Douglas, J.C. Caldwell, and R.M. D'Souza (Oxford, England: Clarendon Press, 1997): 422-43.
35. Lori S. Ashford, "New Population Policies: Advancing Women's Health and Rights," Population Bulletin 56, no. 1 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2001): 9-13.
36. Bongaarts, "Population Policy Options in the Developing World."
37. John A. Ross and W. Parker Mauldin, "Family Planning Programs: Efforts and Results, 1972-94," Studies in Family Planning 27, no. 3 (1996): 137-47;
38. and W. Parker Mauldin and John A. Ross, "Prospects and Programs for Fertility Reduction, 1990-2015," Studies in Family Planning 25, no. 2 (1994): 77-95.
39. Bongaarts and Bulatao, eds., Beyond Six Billion: 23-24.
40. Anatoli Vishnevsky, "Demographic Revolution and the Future of Fertility: A Systems Approach," in Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America: What Can We Assume Today? ed. W. Lutz (London: Academic Press, 1991): 257-70.
41. Paul Demeny, "Replacement-Level Fertility: The Implausible Endpoint of the Demographic Transition," in The Continuing Demographic Transition, ed. G.W. Jones, R.M. Douglas, J.C. Caldwell, and R.M. D'Souza (Oxford, England: Clarendon Press, 1997): 94-110;
42. Ronald D. Lee, "Long-Run Global Population Forecasts: A Critical Appraisal," in Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options, ed. K. Davis and M.S. Bernstam, supplement to Population and Development Review 16 (1991): 44-71;
43. and Charles F. Westoff, "The Return to Replacement Fertility: A Magnetic Force?" in Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America: What Can We Assume Today? ed. W. Lutz (London: Academic Press, 1991): 227-33.
44. Carl Haub and Diana Cornelius, 2007 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2001);
45. and United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (New York: United Nations, 1999).
46. United Nations, "Future Expectations for Below-Replacement Fertility," UN/POP/BRF/BP/1997/3 (Paper presented at the Expert Group Meeting on Below-Replacement Fertility, New York, Nov. 4-6, 1997). Accessed online at: www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/belowrep/estimate.htm, on July 21, 2001.
47. Larry Bumpass, "What's Happening to the Family? Interactions Between Demographic and Institutional Change," Demography 27, no. 4 (1990): 483-98.
48. Antonio Golini, "How Low Can Fertility Be? An Empirical Exploration," Population and Development Review 24, no. 1 (1998): 59-74.
49. John Bongaarts and Griffith Feeney, "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility," Population and Development Review 24, no. 2 (1998): 271-91.
50. John Bongaarts, "Fertility Decline in the Developed World: Where Will It End?" American Economics Association Papers and Proceedings 89, no. 2 (1999): 256-60.
51. Ron Lesthaeghe and Paul Willems, "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?" Population and Development Review 25, no. 2 (1999): 211-28.
52. Tomas Frejka and Gerard Calot, "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review 27, no. 1 (March 2001): 103-32;
53. and United Nations, "Fertility Trends Among Low Fertility Countries," UN/POP/BRF/BP/1997/1 (Paper presented at the Expert Group Meeting on Below-Replacement Fertility, New York, Nov. 4-6, 1997). Accessed online at: www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/gubhaju/cover1.htm, on July 21, 2001.
54. Patrick R. Galloway, "Long-Term Fluctuations in Climate and Population in the Preindustrial Era," Population and Development Review 12, no. 1 (March 1986): 1-24.
55. Ronald D. Lee, "The Demographic Response to Economic Crisis In Historical and Contemporary Populations," Population Bulletin of the United Nations 29 (1990): 1-15;
56. and Allan Hill, "Demographic Responses to Food Shortages in the Sahel," in Rural Development and Population, ed. G. McNicoll and M. Cain, supplement to Population and Development Review 15 (1989): 168-92.
57. M. Ezra, "Demographic Responses to Ecological Degradation and Food Insecurity: Drought Prone Areas in Northern Ethiopia" (Amsterdam: PDOD Publications, 1997).
58. IIASA's probabilistic projections approach implicitly takes into account a small probability that environmental factors could have significant effects on fertility.
59. The medium variant of the 2000 Revision assumes that fertility in countries where the TFR is below 2.1 in 1990-95 will reach, by 2050, the fertility of the cohort of women born in the early 1960s. If information on cohort fertility is not available, countries with current fertility between 1.5 and 2.1 are projected to reach a fertility level of 1.9, and countries with current fertility below 1.5 are projected to reach a fertility level of 1.7, and remain constant thereafter.
60. United Nations, Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, ESA/P/WP.153 (New York: United Nations, 1999): 34.
61. James F. Fries, "Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity," New England Journal of Medicine 303 (1980): 130-35.
62. S. J. Olshansky, B. A. Carnes, C. Cassel, "In Search of Methuselah: Estimating the Upper Limits to Human Longevity," Science 250 (1990): 634-40;
63. S.J. Olshansky, "Practical Limits to Life Expectancy in France," in Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond, ed. J.-M. Robine, J.W. Vaupel, B. Jeune, and M. Allard (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997): 1-10;
64. and D. Harman, "The Aging Process: Major Risk Factor for Disease and Death," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 88 (1991): 5360-363.
65. James W. Vaupel, "The Remarkable Improvements in Survival at Older Ages," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B352, no. 1363 (1997): 1799-804;
66. and James W. Vaupel, "The Average French Baby May Live 95 or 100 Years," in Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond, ed. J-M. Robine, J.W. Vaupel, B. Jeune, and M. Allard (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997): 11-27.
67. T.B.L. Kirkwood, "Is There a Biological Limit to the Human Life Span?" in Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond, ed. J-M. Robine, J.W. Vaupel, B. Jeune, and M. Allard (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997): 69-76.
68. Michael R. Rose, "Can Human Aging Be Postponed?" Scientific American 281 (December 1999): 106-11;
69. and S.J. Olshansky, B.A. Carnes, and D. Grahn, "Confronting the Boundaries of Human Longevity," American Scientist 86 (1998): 52-61.
70. James W. Vaupel, "Trajectories of Mortality at Advanced Ages," in Between Zeus and the Salmon: The Biodemography of Longevity, ed. K.W. Wachter and C.E. Finch (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1997): 17-37.
71. Graziella Caselli and Jacques Vallin, "Demographic Trends: Beyond the Limits?" Population: An English Selection 13, no. 1 (2001): 41-72.
72. Warren C. Sanderson, Molly E. Hellmuth, and Kenneth M. Strzepek, Botswana's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges in the Era of AIDS: Executive Summary (Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2001).
73. James A. Brander and M. Scott Taylor, "The Simple Economics of Easter Island: A Ricardo-Malthus Model of Renewable Resource Use," American Economic Review 88, no. 1 (1998): 119-38;
74. and Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, and Anne Goujon, "World Population Scenarios for the 21st Century," in The Future Population of The World: What Can We Assume Today? ed. W. Lutz (London: Earthscan Publication Ltd., 1996): 361-96.
75. Bongaarts and Bulatao, Beyond Six Billion.
76. Joel E. Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support? (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 1995): 532.
77. Nathan Keyfitz, "Can Knowledge Improve Forecasts?" Population and Development Review 8, no. 4 (December 1982): 729-51;
78. and Joel E. Cohen, "Should Population Projections Consider 'Limiting Factors' - and If So, How?" in Frontiers of Population Forecasting, ed. W. Lutz, J.W. Vaupel, and D.A. Ahlburg, supplement to Population and Development Review 24 (1998): 118-38.
79. Cohen, "Should Population Projections Consider 'Limiting Factors'?";
80. and Bongaarts and Bulatao, Beyond Six Billion.
81. S.J. Olshansky, Bruce Carnes, Richard G. Rogers, and Len Smith, "Infectious Diseases - New and Ancient Threats to World Health," Population Bulletin 52, no. 2 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1997).
82. Michael Loevinsohn, "Climatic Warming and Increased Malaria Incidence in Rwanda," The Lancet 343 (1994): 714-18;
83. Paul R. Epstein, "Is Global Warming Harmful to Health?" Scientific American (August 2000);
84. and Rita Colwell, "Global Climate and Infectious Disease: The Cholera Paradigm," Science 274 (Dec. 20, 1996).
85. International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, World Disasters Report 1998 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1998): 198;
86. A.J. McMichael, A. Haines, R. Slooff, and R.S. Kovats, eds., "Climate Change and Human Health: An Assessment by a Task Group on Behalf of the World Health Organization, the World Meteorological Organization, and the United Nations Environment Programme," WHO/EHG/96.7 (Genera: World Health Organization, 1996);
87. and B. Bucht, "Mortality Trends in Developing Countries: A Survey," in The Future Population of The World: What Can We Assume Today? ed. W. Lutz (London: Earthscan Publications Ltd., 1996): 133-48.
88. The European parts of the former Soviet Union - where life expectancy has declined in recent decades - are an exception. They were projected according to two assumptions: first, that life expectancy would not improve because difficult socioeconomic conditions would continue, and second, that life expectancy would improve because of economic recovery and adoption of more Western lifestyles.
89. Based on U.S. Census Bureau, World Population Profile 1998;
90. and personal communication, Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau on June 12, 2000.
91. United Nations, World Population Monitoring 1997: International Migration and Development, ST/ESA/SER.A/169 (New York: United Nations, 1998): chapter 1.
92. United Nations, "Documents: The UN Population Division on Replacement Migration," Population and Development Review 26, no. 2 (2000): 413-18.
93. Hania Zlotnik, "International Migration 1965-96: An Overview," Population and Development Review 24, no. 3 (1998): 429-68.
94. Douglas S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, J. Edward Taylor, Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium (Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1998);
95. and United Nations, World Population Monitoring 1997: International Migration and Development, chapter 8.
96. Michael Todaro, International Migration in Developing Countries (Geneva: International Labour Office, 1976).
97. Oded Stark, The Migration of Labor (Cambridge, England: Basil Blackwell, 1991).
98. Aristide R. Zolberg, "International Migrations in Political Perspective," in Global Trends in Migration: Theory and Research on International Population Movements, ed. M.M. Kritz, C.B. Keely, and S.M. Tomasi (Staten Island, New York: Center for Migration Studies, 1981): 3-27.
99. Philip Martin and Jonas Widgren, "International Migration: A Global Challenge," Population Bulletin 51, no. 1 (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 1996).
100. Douglas S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, J. Edward Taylor, "Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal" Population and Development Review 20, no. 4 (1994): 699-751;
101. and United Nations, World Population Monitoring 1997: International Migration and Development.
102. E. El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refugees (Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme, 1985).
103. Astri Suhrke, "Environmental Degradation and Population Flows," Journal of International Affairs 47 (1994): 473-96.
104. F.L. MacKellar, W. Lutz, A.J. McMichael, and A. Suhrke, "Population and Climate Change," in Human Choice and Climate Change, Vol. 1: The Societal Framework, ed. S. Rayner and E.L. Malone (Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Press, 1998): 89-193.
105. Jodi L. Jacobson, "Environmental Refugees: Nature's Warning System," Populi 16, no. 1 (1989): 29-41;
106. El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refugees;
107. N. Myers and J. Kent, Environmental Exodus: An Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena (Washington, DC: Climate Institute, 1995);
108. and Norman Myers, "Environmental Refugees," Population and Environment 19, no. 2 (1997): 167-82.
109. Meyers, "Environmental Refugees": 167.
110. United Nations, World Population Monitoring 1997: International Migration and Development. chapter 5.
111. Suhrke, "Environmental Degradation and Population Flows."
112. R. Ramlogan, "Environmental Refugees: A Review," Environmental Conservation 23 (1996): 81-88.
113. Suhrke, "Environmental Degradation and Population Flows."
114. According to the UNHCR, there were about 13 million refugees in 1995, and an addi-tional 13 million "persons of concern to the UNHCR," a group which includes people forced from their homes or communities but still residing in their own countries. Since Norman Myers includes displaced persons who have not crossed international borders in his definition of "environmental refugees," the total figure - 26 million - is the most relevant for comparison.