Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 14, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 245-258

  Schneider, Stephen H ^a  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Abrupt climate change; Integrated assessment models; Irreversibility; Surprise; Thermohaline circulation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; EMISSION CONTROL; FUTURE PROSPECT; GREENHOUSE GAS; MITIGATION; UNCERTAINTY ROLE;

EID: 4344569770     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.008     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Arrow K.J., Cline W., Mäler K.G., Munasinghe M., Squitieri R., Stiglitz J. Intertemporal equity, discounting and economic efficiency. Bruce J.P., Lee H., Haites E.F. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Second Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1996;125-144 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
2. Azar C., Schneider S.H. Are the economic costs of stabilising the atmosphere prohibitive? Ecological Economics. 42:2002;73-80
3. Azar C., Sterner T. Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of climate change. Ecological Economics. 19:1996;169-185
4. Bond G., Showers W., Cheseby M., Lotti R., Almasi P., deMenocal P., Priore P., Cullen H., Hajdas I., Bonani G. A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates. Science. 278:1997;1257-1266
5. 2 upset the current balance? Science. 278:1997;1582-1588
6. Claussen M. On multiple solutions of the atmosphere-vegetation system in present-day climate. Global Change Biology. 4:1998;549-559
7. Claussen M., Kubatzki C., Brovkin V., Ganopolski A., Hoelzmann P., Pachur H.J. Simulation of an abrupt change in Saharan vegetation in the mid-Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters. 26:1999;2037-2040
8. Coleman, T.C., 2003. The impact of climate change on insurance against catastrophe, Insurance Australia Group, Draft.
9. Daily, G.C., Ellison, K., 2002. The New Economy of Nature: The Quest to Make Conservation Profitable. Island Press, Washington, DC, 260pp.
10. Emanuel K.A. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature. 326:1987;483-485
11. Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G., O'Donoghue, T., 2002. Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. Journal of Economic Literature XL (June), 351-401.
12. Ganopolski A., Kubatzki C., Claussen M., Brovkin V., Petoukhov V. The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during the mid-Holocene. Science. 280:1998;1916-1919
13. Heal G. Discounting and climate change, an editorial comment. Climatic Change. 37:1997;335-343
14. Higgins P.A.T., Mastrandrea M., Schneider S.H. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling. abrupt changes and multiple equilibria Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. 357(1421):2002;647-655
15. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1996. Climate change 1995 - the science of climate change. In: Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K. (Eds.). The Second Assessment Report of the IPCC: Contribution of Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 572pp.
16. Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), 2001a. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A. (Eds.), Third Assessment Report of Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 944pp.
17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), 2001b. Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J., White, K.S. (Eds.), Third Assessment Report of Working Group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1032pp.
18. Karl T.R., Knight R.W. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the USA. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 79(2):1998;231-241
19. Keller, K., Bolker, B.M., Bradford, D.F., 2000. Paper Presented at the Yale/NBER/IIASA Workshop on Potential Catastrophic Impacts of Climate Change, 24-25 July, Snowmass, CO.
20. Kleidon A., Heimann M. Deep-rooted vegetation, Amazonian deforestation, and climate. results from a modelling study Global Ecology and Biogeography. 8:1999;397-405
21. Kleidon A., Fraedrich K., Heimann M. A green planet versus a desert world. estimating the maximum effect of vegetation on the land surface climate Climatic Change. 44:2000;471-493
22. Kousky C., Schneider S.H. Global climate policy. will cities lead the way? Climate Policy. 3:2003;359-372
23. Leemans, R., Eickhout, B., 2004. Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change, Global Environmental Change, this issue.
24. Levis S., Foley J.A., Brovkin V., Pollard D. On the stability of the high-latitude climate-vegetation system in a coupled atmosphere-biosphere model. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 8:1999;489-500
25. 2 on the ocean-atmosphere system. Nature. 364:1993;215-218
26. Mastrandrea M., Schneider S.H. Integrated assessment of abrupt climatic changes. Climate Policy. 1:2001;433-449
27. Mastrandrea M., Schneider S.H. Probabilistic integrated assessment of Dangerous climate change. Science. 304:2004;571-575
28. Mearns L.O., Katz R.W., Schneider S.H. Changes in the probabilities of extreme high temperature events with changes in global mean temperature. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology. 23:1984;1601-1613
29. Moss R.H., Schneider S.H. Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR. recommendation to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting Pachauri R., Taniguchi T., Tanaka K. Third Assessment Report: Cross Cutting Issues Guidance Papers. 2000;33-51 World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland. (Available on request from the Global Industrial and Social Progress Institute at http://www.gispri.or.jp)
30. Nordhaus, W.D., 1994. Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 232pp.
31. Pearce D., Groom B., Hepburn C., Koundouri P. Valuing the future - recent advances in social discounting. World Economics. 4(2):2003;121-141
32. Pielke R.A. Jr., Landsea C.W. Normalized hurricane damages in the United States, 1925-1997. Weather Forecasting. 13:1998;351-361
33. Rahmstorf S. On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climate Dynamics. 12:1996;799-811
34. Rahmstorf S. Decadal variability of the thermohaline circulation. Navarra A. Beyond El Nino: Decadal and Interdecadal Climate Variability. 1999;309-332 Springer, New York
35. Root T.L., Schneider S.H. Climate Change. overview and implications for wildlife Schneider S.H., Root T.L. Wildlife Responses to Climate Change: North American Case Studies. National Wildlife Federation. 2002;1-56 Island Press, Washington, DC
36. Roughgarden T., Schneider S.H. Climate change policy. quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal carbon taxes Energy Policy. 27:1999;415-429
37. Schneider S.H., Kuntz-Duriseti K. Uncertainty and climate change policy, chapter 2. Schneider S.H., Rosencranz A., Niles J.-O. Climate Change Policy: A Survey. 2002;53-88 Island Press, Washington, DC
38. Schneider, S.H., Lane, J., 2004. Dangers and thresholds in climate change and the implications for justice, Chapter 2. In: Adger, N., et al., (Eds.), Justice in Adaptation to Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, submitted for publication.
39. Schneider S.H., Thompson S.L. A simple climate model used in economic studies of global change. DeCanio S.J., Howarth R.B., Sanstad A.H., Schneider S.H., Thompson S.L. New Directions in the Economics and Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change. 2000;59-80 The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington, DC
40. Schneider S.H., Turner B.L. II, Morehouse Garriga H. Imaginable surprise in global change science. Journal of Risk Research. 1(2):1998;165-185
41. Schneider S.H., Kuntz-Duriseti K., Azar C. Costing non-linearities, surprises and irreversible events. Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy. 10(1):2000;81-106
42. Seidov D., Maslin M. North Atlantic deep water circulation collapse during Heinrich events. Geology. 27:1999;23-26
43. Siegel E., Dowlatabadi H., Small M.J. A probabilistic model of ecosystem prevalence. Journal of Biogeography. 22(4-5):1995;875-879
44. Singer P. The Animal Liberation Movement [Essay]. 1985;Old Hammond Press, Nottingham, England. (Available online at http://www.utilitarian.org/texts/alm. html)
45. Stocker T.F., Marchal O. Abrupt climate change in the computer. is it real? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 97:2000;1362-1365
46. Stommel H. Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus. 13:1961;224-230
47. Stommel H. Asymmetry of interoceanic freshwater and heat fluxes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 77:1980;2377-2381
48. Thomas C.D., Cameron A., Green R.E., Bakkenes M., Beaumont L.J., Collingham Y.C., Erasmus B.F.N., de Siqueira M.F., Grainger A., Hannah L., Hughes L., Huntley B., van Jaarsveld A.S., Midgley G.F., Miles L., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Peterson A.T., Phillips O.L., Williams S.E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature. 427:2004;145-148
49. Vellinga, P., Mills, E., Berz, G., Huq, S., Kozak, L., Palutikof, J., Schanzenbächer, B., Shida, S., Soler, G., 2001. Insurance and other Financial Services, in IPCC. Third Assessment Report of Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 417-450.
50. Walker, C., 2003. Testimony to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation - Hearing on the Case for Climate Change Action. One Hundred Eighth Congress, first session, 1 October. Senate Hearing #253. Available online at: http://commerce.senate.gov/hearings/testimony.cfm?id=949&wit_id=2674.
51. Walsh K., Pittock A.B. Potential changes in tropical storms, hurricanes, and extreme rainfall events as a result of climate change. Climatic Change. 39:1998;199-213
52. Wang G.L., Eltahir E.A.B. Ecosystem dynamics and the Sahel drought. Geophysical Research Letters. 27:2000;795-798
53. Wang G.L., Eltahir E.A.B. Role of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the low-frequency variability of the Sahel rainfall. Water Resources Research. 36:2000;1013-1021
54. Weitzman M.L. Gamma discounting. The American Economic Review. 91(1):2001;260-271
55. Wilby R.L., Wigley T.M.L. Future changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals across North America. Geophysical Research Letters. 29(7):2002;1135
56. 2 forcing in a climate model. Nature. 399:1999;572-575
57. Yin, J., Schlesinger, M.E., Andronova, N.G., Malyshev, S., Li, B., 2004. Is a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation Irreversible? Nature, submitted for publication.
58. Zheng X.Y., Eltahir E.A.B. The role of vegetation in the dynamics of West African monsoons. Journal of Climate. 11:1998;2078-2096
59. Zickfeld, K., 2004. Modeling large-scale singular climate events for integrated assessment. Ph.D. Thesis, Potsdam University.