Analysis of extreme summer rainfall using climate teleconnections and typhoon characteristics in South Korea

Journal of the American Water Resources Association

Volumn 44, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 436-448

  Kwon, Hyun Han ^a   Khalil, Abedalrazq F ^b   Siegfried, Tobias ^b  

^a Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology   (South Korea)

^b Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate information; Extreme summer rainfall; Hierarchical Bayesian model; Logistic regression

Indexed keywords

HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS; HYDROLOGY; INDEPENDENT COMPONENT ANALYSIS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION;

CLIMATE INFORMATION; EXTREME SUMMER RAINFALL; HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODEL; LOGISTIC REGRESSION;

RAIN;

HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS; HYDROLOGY; INDEPENDENT COMPONENT ANALYSIS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; RAIN;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION; FLOOD; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; MARKOV CHAIN; METHODOLOGY; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TELECONNECTION; TYPHOON;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; KOREA; SOUTH KOREA;

EID: 41149130891     PISSN: 1093474X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00173.x     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Berg, A., R. Meyer J. Yu, 2004. Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22 (1 107 120.
2. Cai, W. P.H. Whetton, 2001. Modes of SST Variability and the Fluctuation of Global Mean Temperature. Climate Dynamics 17 (11 889 901.
3. Chen, H.J., K.C. Lee, E. Murphy-Chutorian J. Triesch, 2005. Toward a Unified Probabilistic Framework for Object Recognition and Segmentation. Advances in Visual Computing, Proceedings 3804 : 108 117.
4. Chui, C.K., 1992. An Introduction to Wavelets, Wavelet Analysis and Its Application, Vol. 1. Academic Press, Boston, Massachusetts, 266 pp.
5. Chung, Y.S., H.S. Kim K.H. Park, 2005. Satellite and Ground-Based Observations of the Typhoon Which Passed Through South-East Korea on 12 September 2003. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26 (1 1 6.
6. Chung, Y.S. M.B. Yoon, 2000. Interpretation of Recent Temperature and Precipitation Trends Observed in Korea. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 67 (3-4 171 180.
7. Chung, Y.S., M.B. Yoon H.S. Kim, 2004. On Climate Variations and Changes Observed in South Korea. Climatic Change 66 (1-2 151 161.
8. Easterling, D.R., G.A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S.A. Changnon, T.R. Karl L.O. Mearns, 2000. Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts. Science 289 (5487 2068 2074.
9. Foufoula-Georgiou, E. P. Kumar, 1995. Wavelets in Geophysics. Academic Press, San Diego, California, 373 pp.
10. Franks, S.W. G. Kuczera, 2002. Flood Frequency Analysis: Evidence and Implications of Secular Climate Variability, new South Wales. Water Resources Research 38 (5 1062. doi :.
11. Gelman, A., 2006. Prior Distributions for Variance Parameters in Hierarchical Models. Bayesian Analysis 1 (3 515 533.
12. Gelman, A., J. Carlin, H. Stern D. Rubin, 2003. Bayesian Data Analysis (Second Edition). Chapman & Hall-CRC, London, England.
13. Gelman, J.B.C.A., H.S. Stern D.B. Rubin, 1995. Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall, New York, New York.
14. Gilks, W.R., N.G. Best K.K.C. Tan, 1995. Adaptive Rejection Metropolis Sampling Within Gibbs Sampling. Applied Statistics - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C 44 (4 455 472.
15. Godsill, S., A. Doucet M. West, 2001. Maximum a posteriori Sequence Estimation Using Monte Carlo Particle Filters. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 53 (1 82 96.
16. Gyftodimos, E. P.A. Flach, 2004. Hierarchical Bayesian Networks: An Approach to Classification and Learning for Structured Data. Methods and Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings 3025 : 291 300.
17. Halpert, M.S. C.F. Ropelewski, 1992. Surface-Temperature Patterns Associated With the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 5 (6 577 593.
18. Hirschboeck, K.K., 1988. Flood Hydroclimatology, in Flood Geomorphology. John Wiley, New York, New York.
19. Ho, C.H., J.Y. Lee, M.H. Ahn H.S. Lee, 2003. A Sudden Change in Summer Rainfall Characteristics in Korea During the Late 1970s. International Journal of Climatology 23 (1 117 128.
20. Hue, C., J.P. Le Cadre P. Perez, 2002. Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Multiple Target Tracking and Data Fusion. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 50 (2 309 325.
21. Hyvarinen, A., J. Karhunen E. Oja, 2001. Independent Component Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 481 pp.
22. Jain, S. U. Lall, 2000. Magnitude and Timing of Annual Maximum Floods: Trends and Large-Scale Climatic Associations for the Blacksmith Fork River, Utah. Water Resources Research 36 (12 3641 3651.
23. Jain, S. U. Lall, 2001. Floods in a Changing Climate: Does the Past Represent the Future? Water Resources Research 37 (12 3193 3205.
24. Kaiser, G., 1994. A Friendly Guide to Wavelets. Birkhäuser, Boston, Massachusetts, 300 pp.
25. Kaplan, A., M.A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A.C. Clement, M.B. Blumenthal B. Rajagopalan, 1998. Analyses of Global sea Surface Temperature 1856-1991. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 103 (C9 18567 18589.
26. Karl, T.R., R.W. Knight N. Plummer, 1995. Trends in High-Frequency Climate Variability in the 20th-Century. Nature 377 (6546 217 220.
27. Katz, R.W. B.G. Brown, 1992. Extreme Events in a Changing Climate - Variability is More Important Than Averages. Climatic Change 21 (3 289 302.
28. Knox, J.C., 1984. Fluvial Responses to Small Scale Climate Changes, Developments and Application of Geomorphology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
29. Knox, J.C., 1993. Large Increases in Flood Magnitude in Response to Modest Changes in Climate. Nature 361 (6411 430 432.
30. Kwon, H.H., U. Lall, Y.I. Moon, A.F. Khalil H.S. Ahn, 2006. Episodic Interannual Climate Oscillations and Their Influence on Seasonal Rainfall in the Everglades National Park. Water Resources Research 42 (11 W11404. doi :.
31. Latif, M., A. Sterl, M. Assenbaum, M.M. Junge E. Maierreimer, 1994. Climate Variability in a Coupled GCM.2. The Indian-Ocean and Monsoon. Journal of Climate 7 (10 1449 1462.
32. Lee, E.J., J.G. Jhun C.K. Park, 2005. Remote Connection of the Northeast Asian Summer Rainfall Variation Revealed by a Newly Defined Monsoon Index. Journal of Climate 18 (21 4381 4393.
33. Meehl, G.A., T. Karl, D.R. Easterling, S. Changnon, R. Pielke, D. Changnon, J. Evans, P.Y. Groisman, T.R. Knutson, K.E. Kunkel, L.O. Mearns, C. Parmesan, R. Pulwarty, T. Root, R.T. Sylves, P. Whetton F. Zwiers, 2000. An Introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations, Socioeconomic Impacts, Terrestrial Ecological Impacts, and Model Projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81 (3 413 416.
34. Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne T.L. Delworth, 2002. Increasing Risk of Great Floods in a Changing Climate. Nature 415 (6871 514 517.
35. Nagai, T., Y. Kitamura, M. Endoh T. Tokioka, 1995. Coupled Atmosphere Ocean Model Simulations of el-Nino Southern Oscillation With and Without an Active Indian-Ocean. Journal of Climate 8 (1 3 14.
36. NRC (National Research Council), Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, 1998. Decade-to-Century Scale Climate Variability and Change A Science Strategy. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
37. NRC (National Research Council), Water Science and Technology Board, Committee on American River Flood Frequencies, 1999. Improving American River Flood Frequency Analyses. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
38. Olsen, J.R., J.R. Stedinger, N.C. Matalas E.Z. Stakhiv, 1999. Climate Variability and Flood Frequency Estimation for the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (6 1509 1523.
39. Palmer, T.N., A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. Davey, P. Delecluse, M. Deque, E. Diez, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Feddersen, R. Graham, S. Gualdi, J.F. Gueremy, R. Hagedorn, M. Hoshen, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Lazar, E. Maisonnave, V. Marletto, A.P. Morse, B. Orfila, P. Rogel, J.M. Terres M.C. Thomson, 2004. Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (Demeter). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85 (6 853.
40. Piechota, T.C. J.A. Dracup, 1996. Drought and Regional Hydrologic Variation in the United States: Associations With the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Water Resources Research 32 (5 1359 1373.
41. Pizaro, G. U. Lall, 2002. El Nino and Floods in the us West: What can we Expect? Eos Transactions, AGU 83 (32 349 352.
42. Porparto, A. L. Ridolfi, 1998. Influence of Weak Trends on Exceedance Probability. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics 12 (1 1 15.
43. Qian, W.H. Y.F. Zhu, 2001. Climate Change in China From 1880 to 1998 and Its Impact on the Environmental Condition. Climatic Change 50 (4 419 444.
44. Ridgeway, G. D. Madigan, 2003. A Sequential Monte Carlo Method for Bayesian Analysis of Massive Datasets. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 7 (3 301 319.
45. Ropelewski, C.F. M.S. Halpert, 1986. North-American Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Associated With the Elnino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly Weather Review 114 (12 2352 2362.
46. Ropelewski, C.F. M.S. Halpert, 1987. Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated With the el-Nino Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115 (8 1606 1626.
47. Sankarasubramanian, A. U. Lall, 2003. Flood Quantiles in a Changing Climate: Seasonal Forecasts and Causal Relations. Water Resources Research 39 (5 1134. doi :.
48. Seltzer, M.H., W.H. Wong A.S. Bryk, 1996. Bayesian Analysis in Applications of Hierarchical Models: Issues and Methods. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 21 (2 131 167.
49. Torrence, C. G.P. Compo, 1998. A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79 (1 61 78.
50. Tsionas, E.G., 2001. Bayesian Multivariate Poisson Regression. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 30 (2 243 255.
51. Tucker, A. X.H. Liu, 2003. Learning Dynamic Bayesian Networks From Multivariate Time Series With Changing Dependencies. Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis V 2810 : 100 110.
52. Yang, F.L. K.M. Lau, 2004. Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to sea-Surface Temperatures. International Journal of Climatology 24 (13 1625 1644.