메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 148, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 606-618

The potential value of seasonal forecasts of rainfall categories-Case studies from the wheatbelt in Western Australia's Mediterranean region

Author keywords

APSIM; Forecast format; Forecast skill; Forecast value; Nitrogen; Seasonal climate forecasting; Sowing; Wheat

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL MODELING; CLAY SOIL; COMPARATIVE STUDY; DECISION MAKING; FERTILIZER APPLICATION; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT; NITROGEN; RAINFALL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SOIL TYPE; SOWING; WEATHER FORECASTING; WHEAT;

EID: 41049113081     PISSN: 01681923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.11.004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (48)
  • 1
    • 41049105720 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ABARE, 2007. Australian Crop Report, February 2007, no. 141. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, Australia.
    • ABARE, 2007. Australian Crop Report, February 2007, no. 141. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, Australia.
  • 2
    • 0031936299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nitrogen and water flows under pasture-wheat and lupin-wheat rotations in deep sands in Western Australia. 2. Drainage and nitrate leaching
    • Anderson G.C., Fillery I.R.P., Dunin F.X., Dolling P.J., and Asseng S. Nitrogen and water flows under pasture-wheat and lupin-wheat rotations in deep sands in Western Australia. 2. Drainage and nitrate leaching. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 49 (1998) 345-361
    • (1998) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.49 , pp. 345-361
    • Anderson, G.C.1    Fillery, I.R.P.2    Dunin, F.X.3    Dolling, P.J.4    Asseng, S.5
  • 3
    • 41049089552 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Anderson W.K., and Garlinge J.R. (Eds), Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, South Perth, Australia
    • In: Anderson W.K., and Garlinge J.R. (Eds). The Wheat Book, Bulletin 4443 (2000), Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, South Perth, Australia
    • (2000) The Wheat Book, Bulletin 4443
  • 7
    • 0035134319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential deep drainage under wheat crops in a Mediterranean climate I. Temporal and spatial variability
    • Asseng S., Fillery I.R., Dunin F.X., Keating B.A., and Meinke H. Potential deep drainage under wheat crops in a Mediterranean climate I. Temporal and spatial variability. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 52 (2001) 45-56
    • (2001) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.52 , pp. 45-56
    • Asseng, S.1    Fillery, I.R.2    Dunin, F.X.3    Keating, B.A.4    Meinke, H.5
  • 8
    • 0036217985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A survey of farmers' attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of south-east Australia
    • Austen E.A., Sale P.W.G., Clark S.G., and Graetz B. A survey of farmers' attitudes, management strategies and use of weather and seasonal climate forecasts for coping with climate variability in the perennial pasture zone of south-east Australia. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 42 (2002) 173-183
    • (2002) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.42 , pp. 173-183
    • Austen, E.A.1    Sale, P.W.G.2    Clark, S.G.3    Graetz, B.4
  • 9
    • 41049089342 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Australian Wheat Board, 2004. AWB estimated pool return. Australian Wheat Board Limited, Melbourne, Australia. http://www.awb.com.au.
    • Australian Wheat Board, 2004. AWB estimated pool return. Australian Wheat Board Limited, Melbourne, Australia. http://www.awb.com.au.
  • 10
    • 41049110113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chambers, L.E., Li, F., Nicholls, N., 2002. Seasonal Climate Forecasts for South-West Western Australia. BMRC Research Report 86, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
    • Chambers, L.E., Li, F., Nicholls, N., 2002. Seasonal Climate Forecasts for South-West Western Australia. BMRC Research Report 86, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
  • 11
    • 0001485604 scopus 로고
    • Crop evapotranspiration-a technique for calculation of its components by field measurements
    • Cooper P.J.M., Keatinge J.D.H., and Hughes G. Crop evapotranspiration-a technique for calculation of its components by field measurements. Field Crops Res. 7 (1983) 299-312
    • (1983) Field Crops Res. , vol.7 , pp. 299-312
    • Cooper, P.J.M.1    Keatinge, J.D.H.2    Hughes, G.3
  • 12
    • 0035297967 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Near-global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall
    • Drosdowsky W., and Chambers L.E. Near-global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall. J. Climate 14 (2001) 1677-1687
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 1677-1687
    • Drosdowsky, W.1    Chambers, L.E.2
  • 13
    • 41049115090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Department of Agriculture, 2001. 2002 Crop Variety Sowing Guide for Western Australia, Bulletin 4529. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, South Perth, Australia.
    • Department of Agriculture, 2001. 2002 Crop Variety Sowing Guide for Western Australia, Bulletin 4529. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, South Perth, Australia.
  • 14
    • 41049103517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Department of Agriculture, 2002. Gross Margins Guide 2003, Western Australia, 18/2002. Department of Agriculture Western Australia, South Perth, Australia.
    • Department of Agriculture, 2002. Gross Margins Guide 2003, Western Australia, 18/2002. Department of Agriculture Western Australia, South Perth, Australia.
  • 15
    • 0036890586 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain on seasonal climate forecasts
    • Everingham Y.L., Muchow R.C., Stone R.C., Inman-Bamber N.G., Singels A., and Bezuidenhout C.N. Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain on seasonal climate forecasts. Agric. Syst. 74 (2002) 459-477
    • (2002) Agric. Syst. , vol.74 , pp. 459-477
    • Everingham, Y.L.1    Muchow, R.C.2    Stone, R.C.3    Inman-Bamber, N.G.4    Singels, A.5    Bezuidenhout, C.N.6
  • 16
    • 0242267725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the IRI'S "Net Assessment" Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997-2001
    • Goddard L., Barnston A.G., and Mason S.J. Evaluation of the IRI'S "Net Assessment" Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997-2001. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84 (2003) 1761-1781
    • (2003) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.84 , pp. 1761-1781
    • Goddard, L.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Mason, S.J.3
  • 18
    • 0001173861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability
    • Hammer G.L., Holzworth D.P., and Stone R.C. The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 47 (1996) 717-737
    • (1996) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.47 , pp. 717-737
    • Hammer, G.L.1    Holzworth, D.P.2    Stone, R.C.3
  • 20
    • 0036890598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges
    • Hansen J.W. Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agric. Syst. 74 (2002) 309-330
    • (2002) Agric. Syst. , vol.74 , pp. 309-330
    • Hansen, J.W.1
  • 21
    • 33645741676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice
    • Hansen J.W. Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 360 (2005) 2037-2047
    • (2005) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B , vol.360 , pp. 2037-2047
    • Hansen, J.W.1
  • 23
    • 0022825807 scopus 로고
    • Effects of atmospheric evaporativity, soil type and redistribution time on evaporation from bare soil
    • Jalota S.K., and Prihar S.S. Effects of atmospheric evaporativity, soil type and redistribution time on evaporation from bare soil. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 24 (1986) 357-366
    • (1986) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.24 , pp. 357-366
    • Jalota, S.K.1    Prihar, S.S.2
  • 24
  • 28
    • 33646360616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From inferential statistics to climate knowledge
    • Maia A., and Meinke H. From inferential statistics to climate knowledge. Adv. Geosci. 6 (2006) 211-216
    • (2006) Adv. Geosci. , vol.6 , pp. 211-216
    • Maia, A.1    Meinke, H.2
  • 29
    • 0020867250 scopus 로고
    • Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation
    • McBride J.L., and Nicholls N. Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 111 (1983) 1998-2004
    • (1983) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.111 , pp. 1998-2004
    • McBride, J.L.1    Nicholls, N.2
  • 30
    • 0029749373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research
    • McCown R.L., Hammer G.L., Hargreaves J.N.G., Holzworth D.P., and Freebairn D.M. APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research. Agric. Syst. 50 (1996) 255-271
    • (1996) Agric. Syst. , vol.50 , pp. 255-271
    • McCown, R.L.1    Hammer, G.L.2    Hargreaves, J.N.G.3    Holzworth, D.P.4    Freebairn, D.M.5
  • 31
    • 28244473013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From oceans to farms: the value of a novel statistical climate forecast for agricultural management
    • McIntosh P., Ash A.J., and Smith M.S. From oceans to farms: the value of a novel statistical climate forecast for agricultural management. J. Climate 18 (2005) 4202-4287
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 4202-4287
    • McIntosh, P.1    Ash, A.J.2    Smith, M.S.3
  • 33
    • 21744440251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operation
    • Meinke H., and Stone R.C. Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operation. Climatic Change 70 (2005) 221-253
    • (2005) Climatic Change , vol.70 , pp. 221-253
    • Meinke, H.1    Stone, R.C.2
  • 34
    • 0027706813 scopus 로고
    • What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting
    • Murphy A.H. What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather Forecasting 8 (1993) 281-293
    • (1993) Weather Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 281-293
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 35
    • 1942542385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Opportunities to improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts
    • Hammer G.L., Nicholls N., and Mitchell C. (Eds), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Nicholls N. Opportunities to improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts. In: Hammer G.L., Nicholls N., and Mitchell C. (Eds). Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems-The Australian Experience (2000), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands 309-327
    • (2000) Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems-The Australian Experience , pp. 309-327
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 36
    • 0034829527 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers
    • Petersen E.H., and Fraser R.W. An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers. Agric. Syst. 70 (2001) 259-274
    • (2001) Agric. Syst. , vol.70 , pp. 259-274
    • Petersen, E.H.1    Fraser, R.W.2
  • 38
    • 0031986370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • APSIM's water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems
    • Probert M.E., Dimes J.P., Keating B.A., Dalal R.C., and Strong W.M. APSIM's water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems. Agric. Syst. 56 (1998) 1-28
    • (1998) Agric. Syst. , vol.56 , pp. 1-28
    • Probert, M.E.1    Dimes, J.P.2    Keating, B.A.3    Dalal, R.C.4    Strong, W.M.5
  • 39
    • 84944836456 scopus 로고
    • Model for predicting evaporation from a row crop with incomplete cover
    • Ritchie J.T. Model for predicting evaporation from a row crop with incomplete cover. Water Resources Research 8 5 (1972) 1204-1213
    • (1972) Water Resources Research , vol.8 , Issue.5 , pp. 1204-1213
    • Ritchie, J.T.1
  • 40
    • 0036071263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis
    • Sadras V. Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis. Field Crops Res. 77 (2002) 201-215
    • (2002) Field Crops Res. , vol.77 , pp. 201-215
    • Sadras, V.1
  • 41
    • 0034492059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Southwest Western Australian winter rainfall and its association with Indian Ocean climate variability
    • Smith I.N., McIntosh P., Ansell T.J., Reason C.J.C., and McInnes K. Southwest Western Australian winter rainfall and its association with Indian Ocean climate variability. Int. J. Climatol. 20 (2000) 1913-1930
    • (2000) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.20 , pp. 1913-1930
    • Smith, I.N.1    McIntosh, P.2    Ansell, T.J.3    Reason, C.J.C.4    McInnes, K.5
  • 42
    • 41049088931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SPSS Inc., 2002. SPSS 11.5. Chicago, USA.
    • SPSS Inc., 2002. SPSS 11.5. Chicago, USA.
  • 43
    • 0031713112 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variability and trends in sowing dates across the Australian wheatbelt
    • Stephens D.J., and Lyons T.J. Variability and trends in sowing dates across the Australian wheatbelt. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 49 (1998) 1111-1118
    • (1998) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.49 , pp. 1111-1118
    • Stephens, D.J.1    Lyons, T.J.2
  • 44
    • 0031914647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rainfall-yield relationships across the Australian wheatbelt
    • Stephens D.J., and Lyons T.J. Rainfall-yield relationships across the Australian wheatbelt. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 49 (1998) 211-223
    • (1998) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.49 , pp. 211-223
    • Stephens, D.J.1    Lyons, T.J.2
  • 45
    • 0027088426 scopus 로고
    • SOI phase relationships with rainfall in eastern Australia
    • Stone R.C., and Auliciems A. SOI phase relationships with rainfall in eastern Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 12 (1992) 625-636
    • (1992) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.12 , pp. 625-636
    • Stone, R.C.1    Auliciems, A.2
  • 46
    • 0029660787 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction of global rainfall probability using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index
    • Stone R.C., Hammer G.L., and Marcussen T. Prediction of global rainfall probability using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384 (1996) 251-255
    • (1996) Nature , vol.384 , pp. 251-255
    • Stone, R.C.1    Hammer, G.L.2    Marcussen, T.3
  • 47
    • 0031667572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 'Haying-off', the negative grain yield response of dryland wheat to nitrogen fertilizer: 1. Biomass, grain yield, and water use
    • Van Herwaarden A.F., Farquhar G.D., Angus J.F., Richards R.A., and Howe G.N. 'Haying-off', the negative grain yield response of dryland wheat to nitrogen fertilizer: 1. Biomass, grain yield, and water use. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 49 (1998) 1067-1081
    • (1998) Aust. J. Agric. Res. , vol.49 , pp. 1067-1081
    • Van Herwaarden, A.F.1    Farquhar, G.D.2    Angus, J.F.3    Richards, R.A.4    Howe, G.N.5
  • 48
    • 31144451253 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005
    • Vizard A.L., Anderson G.A., and Buckley D.J. Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005. Meteorol. Appl. 12 (2005) 343-355
    • (2005) Meteorol. Appl. , vol.12 , pp. 343-355
    • Vizard, A.L.1    Anderson, G.A.2    Buckley, D.J.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.