Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005

Meteorological Applications

Volumn 12, Issue 4, 2005, Pages 343-355

  Vizard, A L ^a   Anderson, G A ^a   Buckley, D J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^b CHARLES STURT UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; RAIN;

BRIER SKILL SCORES; BUREAU OF METEOROLOGIES; DECISION MAKERS; ECONOMIC BENEFITS; ECONOMIC GAINS; FORECASTING SYSTEM; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS; SEASONAL RAINFALL;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECISION MAKING; ECONOMIC ACTIVITY; METEOROLOGY; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; SEASONALITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 31144451253     PISSN: 13504827     EISSN: 14698080     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S135048270500191X     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Brier, G. W. (1950) Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review 78: 1-3.
2. Donner, A. & Klar, N. (2000). Design and Analysis of Cluster Randomization Trials in Health Research. London: Arnold.
3. Drosdowsky, W. & Chambers, L. E. (2001) Near-global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall. J. Climate 14: 1677-1687.
4. Fawcett, R. J. B., Jones, D. A. & Beard, G. S. (2005) A verification of publicly issued seasonal forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology: 1998-2003. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 54: 1-13.
5. Friedman, M. & Savage, L. J. (1948) The utility analysis of choices involving risk. J. Political Econ. 56: 279-304.
6. Gagnon, N. & Verret, R. (2002) Relative economical value of CMC seasonal forecasts. In Proc. of the 16th AMS Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Orlando, Florida, 26-30.
7. Hosmer, D. W. & Lemeshow, S. (2000). Applied Logistic Regression. 2nd edn, New York: Wiley & Sons, Inc.
8. Hsu, W. R. & Murphy, A. H. (1986) The attributes diagram: A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting 2: 285-293.
9. Mason, I. B. (1982) A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 30: 291-303.
10. Murphy, A. H. & Winkler, R. L. (1992) Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting 7: 435-455.
11. Richardson, D. S. (2003) Economic value and skill. In I. T. Jollife & D. B. Stephenson (eds.), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 165-187.
12. Ridout, M. S., Demetrio, C. G. B. & Firth, D. (1999) Estimating intraclass correlation for binary data. Biometrics 55: 137-148.
13. Roebber, P. J. & Bosart, L. F. (1996) The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value: A real-world analysis. Weather and Forecasting 11: 544-559.
14. Rollins, K. S. & Shaykewich, J. (2003) Using willingness-to-pay to assess the economic value of weather forecasts for multiple commercial sectors. Meteorol. Appl. 10: 31-38.
15. Snedecor, G. W. & Cochran, W. G. (1980) Statistical Methods. 7th edn. Ames: Iowa State University Press.
16. StataCorp. (2005) Stata Statistical Software: Release 9. Stata Corporation, College Station, Texas.
17. Toth, Z., Talagrand. O., Candille. G. & Zhu, Y. (2003) Probability and ensemble forecasts. In I. T. Jollife & D. B. Stephenson (eds.), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 137-163.
18. Vizard, A. L. (1994) Finances and decisions. In F. H. W. Morley (ed.), Merinos, Money & Management, Post Graduate Committee in Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, 47-71.
19. Wilks, D. S. (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. San Diego: Academic Press.
20. Wilks, D. S. (1997) Forecast value: Prescriptive decision studies. In R. W. Katz and A. H. Murphy (eds.), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 109-145.
21. Wilks, D. S. (2001) A skill score based on economic value for probability forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 8: 209-219.
22. Williams, R. L. (2000) A note on robust variance estimation for cluster-correlated data. Biometrics 56: 645-646.