Hereditary succession in modern autocracies

World Politics

Volumn 59, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 595-628

  Brownlee, Jason ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

LEADERSHIP; POST-WAR;

EID: 38849117015     PISSN: 00438871     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/wp.2008.0002     Document Type: Article

References (238)

1. Egypt NDP Member Hints at Gamal for President," Reuters News, September 19, 2006, http://global.factiva.com (accessed September 25, 2006).
2. Muhammad Abdul Aziz and Youssef Hussein, "The President, the Son, and the Military: Succession in Egypt," Arab Studies Journal 9/10 (Fall 2001/Spring 2002);
3. Samer Shehata, "Political Succession in Egypt," Middle East Policy 9 (September 2002);
4. and Mary Anne Weaver, "Pharaohs-In-Waiting," The Atlantic (October 2003).
5. Samuel Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1968), 168.
6. Robbins Burling, The Passage of Power: Studies in Political Succession (New York: Academic Press, 1974), 142.
7. One recent attempt at apprehending hereditary succession in autocratic regimes is Muhammad Tharwat, Asr al-jumhuriyat al-malakiyah [The Era of Monarchical Republics] (Cairo, Egypt: al-Dar al-Thaqafiyah lil-Nashr, 2002).
8. Marina Ottaway and Martha Brill Olcott, "The Challenge of Semi-Authoritarianism," Carnegie Paper, no.7 (October 1999);
9. Andreas Schedler, "The Democratic Revelation," Journal of Demorracy 11 (October 2000);
10. Ellen Lust-Okar and Amaney Jamal, "Rulers and Rules: Reassessing the Influence of Regime Type on Electoral Law Formation," Comparative Political Studies 35 (April 2002);
11. Larry Jay Diamond, "Thinking about Hybrid Regimes," Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002);
12. and Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, "The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism," Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002).
13. Azerbaijan held multiparty parliamentary elections in 1990, 1995, and 2000, as well as multicandidate presidential elections won by Heydar Aliyev, in 1993 and 1998. After gaining independence in 1965, Singapore has held ten multiparty elections. The Togolese government introduced multiparty elections in 1993. Hans Florian Grotz and Raoul Motika, "Azerbaijan," in Dieter Nohlen, Florian Grotz, and Christof Hartmann, eds., Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 1:362-64;
14. Christoph Rieger, "Singapore," in Dieter Nohlen, Florian Grotz, and Christof Hartmann, eds., Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 2:254-55;
15. International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, http:// www.idea.int/vt/country_yiew.cfm?CountryCode=SG (accessed November 6, 2006);
16. and Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparatiue Perspective (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), 196-97.
17. Lisa Wedeen, "Seeing Like a Citizen, Acting Like a State: Exemplary Events in Unified Yemen," Comparative Studies in History and Society 45 (October 2003), 691;
18. Richard Snyder, "Beyond Electoral Authoritarianism: The Spectrum of Nondemocratic Regimes," in Andreas Schedler, Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2006), 220-22;
19. and Lisa Anderson, "Searching Where the Light Shines: Studying Democratization in the Middle East," Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006), 199.
20. See, among others, Barbara Geddes, "Authoritarian Breakdown: Empirical Test of a Game Theoretic Argument," (paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, Ga., September 2-5, 1999);
21. Paul Brooker, Non-Democratic Regimes: Theory, Government and Politics (New York: St. Martin's Press, 2000);
22. Michael L. Ross, "Does Oil Hinder Democracy?" World Politics 53 (April 2001);
23. David Waldner, "Democracy and Dictatorship in the Post-Colonial World," (paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 2-5, 2004);
24. Ellen Lust-Okar, Structuring Contestation in the Arab World: Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005);
25. Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Penner Angrist, eds., Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Press, 2005);
26. Benjamin Smith, "Life of the Party: The Origins of Regime Breakdown and Persistence under Single-Party Rule," World Politics 57 (April 2005);
27. Lucan A. Way, "Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine," World Politics 57 (January 2005);
28. and Dan Slater, "Ordering Power: Contentious Politics, State-Building and Authoritarian Durability in Southeast Asia" (Ph.D. diss., Emory University, 2005).
29. Studies of succession have focused on the Soviet Union and Mexico, but have not established cross-regional explanatory frameworks. Mexico's Partido Revoluncionario Institucional (PRI, r. 1929-2000) selected a nonincumbent presidential candidate every six years, providing an exceptionally robust answer to the succession question. On the Soviet Union, see Valerie Bunce, "Leadership Succession and Policy Innovation in the Soviet Republics," Comparative Politics 11 (July 1979);
30. and the exchange between Valerie Bunce and Philip G. Roeder, "The Effects of Leadership Succession in the Soviet Union," American Political Science Review 80 (March 1986).
31. On the PRI, consult Alan Knight, "Mexico's Elite Settlement: Conjuncture and Consequences," in John Higley and Richard Gunther, eds., Elites and Democratic Consolidation in Latin America and Southern Europe (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992);
32. and Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995).
33. Gordon Tullock, Autocracy (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1987).
34. The data set compiles relevant political and genealogical information on nonmonarchical rulers in power for at least three years. In addition to supplementary sources on specific cases, the main sources for information were the Library of Congress Country Studies series; Geddes (fil, 8);
35. Dieter Nohlen, Michael Krennerich, and Bernhard Thibaut, eds., Elections in Africa: A Data Handbook (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999);
36. Nohlen, Grotz, and Hartmann (fn. 6, vols. 1 and 2);
37. Encyclopedia of World Biography (Detroit, Mich.: Gale Group, 1998);
38. and Hein Gomans, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Giacomo Chiozza, Archigos: A Dataset of Leaders 1875-2004 (2006), (accessed August 18, 2006).
39. In Egypt, Anwar Sadat made Hosni Mubarak his vice president and expected successor in 1975. Mubarak thus gained the status of heir apparent three years before Sadat inaugurated the National Democratic Party and installed Mubarak as the party's vice chairman. On Sadat's tapping of Mubarak and the NDP's founding, see John Waterbury, The Egypt of Nasser and Sadat: The Political Economy of Two Regimes (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1983), 47, 369-71.
40. Dankwart Rustow, "Succession in the Twentieth Century" Journal of International Affairs 18 (1964), 108-109.
41. John H. Herz, "The Problem of Successorship in Dictatorial Régimes: A Study in Comparative Law and Institutions," Journal of Politics 14 (February 1952), 19.
42. On the difficulties of undemocratic rulers retaining power, see Henry Bienen and Nicolas van de Walle, Of Time and Power: Leadership Duration in the Modern World (Palo Alto, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1991);
43. Geddes (fn. 8);
44. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival (Boston, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003), 300-302.
45. I discuss these examples in greater detail below. During the transition period in Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew and his eventual heir suppressed public discussions of hereditary succession, even charging the International Herald Tribune with libel for an opinion column about dynastic politics in Singapore. Philip Bowring, "The Claims About 'Asian' Values Don't Usually Bear Scrutiny," International Herald Tribune, August 2, 1994;
46. and "Nepotism: A Little More than Kin," Economist, December 24, 1994.
47. Subsequent events supported the Tribune columnist's argument that political authority had remained within the Lee family. A decade after Lee Kuan Yew's putative handover of power, one observer remarked, "Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong still is seen by some to be functioning virtually on probation." Raj Vasil, Governing Singapore: Democracy and National Development (Singapore: Allen & Unwin, 2000), 137.
48. Under these strict definitions I omit the post hoc succession of Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo following President Laurent Kabila's assassination in 2001.
49. Were Raúl Castro to succeed Fidel Castro, it would mark the only case in the data set where a long-ruling leader overlooked multiple eligible sons and inaugurated a brother-brother transfer of power. Juan O. Tamayo, "Castro's Secret Life: Even the CIA is Left to Wonder about the 'Maximum Leader' and His Family," Seattle Times, October 25, 2000, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 22, 2006).
50. Philippe Schmitter and Terry Lynn Karl, "What Democracy Is... And Is Not," Journal of Democracy (Summer 1991).
51. Joseph Alois Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York. Harper & Brothers, 1947), 269.
52. Geddes (fn. 8), 1.
53. Editorial, "Dynastic Regimes," New York Times, August 25, 2003);
54. see also Charles M. Sennott, "Arab Sons of Privilege Inherit Power and Instill Doubts," Boston Globe, June 14, 2000;
55. and Brian Whitaker, "Hereditary Republics in Arab States," Guardian Unlimited, August 28, 2001.
56. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), 52;
57. H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz, "A Theory of Sultanism 1: A Type of Nondemocratic Rule," in H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz, eds., Sultanistic Regimes (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), 15-17;
58. Brooker (fn. 8), 144-47;
59. and Tharwat (fn. 4), 117.
60. Shehata (fn. 2), 112.
61. In their comparative study of developmental and patrimonial states, Peter Evans and James Rauch code the Dominican Republic and Haiti among the most personalized regimes of their data set (with scores of 2.0 and 4.0, out of a maximum of 13.50) while placing Singapore (13.50) and Taiwan (12.0) at the top of their rankings. Peter Evans and James E. Rauch, "Bureaucracy and Growth: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effects of 'Weberian' State Structures on Economic Growth," American Sociological Review 64 (October 1999), 763,
62. For two influential examples see Bienen and van de Walle (fn. 15);
63. and Bueno de Mesquita et al. (fn. 15).
64. Herz (fn. 14), 30.
65. Tullock (fn. 10), 151, 153.
66. Herz (fn. 14), 37.
67. Tullock (fn. 10), 163.
68. See Bueno de Mesquita et al. (fn. 15), 17, for historical illustrations of this problem.
69. The threat from nonfilial relatives shows in at least three cases where familial coevals attempted or successfully executed coups. In the Dominican Republic, Rafael Trujillo's brother Petán plotted to seize power during the mid-1930s and was repeatedly posted abroad as a result. In Equatorial Guinea in 1979, current president Teodoro Obiang Nguema took power by ousting his uncle, Francisco Macías Nguema (eighteen years his senior). In Syria in 1983, Hafez al-Assad survived a coup attempt by his brother Rifaat, who was subsequently exiled. Robert D. Crassweller, Trujillo: The Life and Times of a Caribbean Dictator (New York: Macmillan, 1966), 140-41;
70. Daniel Chirot, Modern Tyrants: The Power and Prevalence of Evil in Our Age (New York: Free Press, 1994), 363-64;
71. and Patrick Seale, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press, 1988), 432-35.
72. Tullock (fn. 10), 151-57.
73. Ibid., 161, 166, 215.
74. Michael Herb, All in the Family: Absolutism, Revolution, and Democracy in the Middle Eastern Monarchies (Albany, N.Y.: State University of New York Press, 1999), 8. On the king's dilemma,
75. see Huntington (fn. 3), 168.
76. David Waldner has differentiated between low-intensity elite conflict, in which elite status is not threatened, and high-intensity elite conflict, in which elites face permanent loss of elite status. For treatment of leadership succession, I treat conflict intensity as a product of elite strategies, rather than as an independent variable, David Waldner, State Building and Late Development (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1999), 29.
77. Sheila Carapico, "Successions, Transitions, Coups, and Revolutions," Middle East Policy 9 (September 2002).
78. Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1960), 57.
79. Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard, "The Constitutional Economics of Autocratic Succession," Public Choice 103 (April 2000), 79;
80. and Gordon Tullock, "Undemocratic Governments," Kyklos 55 (2002), 262.
81. Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases You Choose Affect the Answers You Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990), 131;
82. Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), 129;
83. and David Collier and James Mahoney, "Insights and Pitfalls: Selection Bias in Qualitative Research," World Politics 49 (October 1996), 67.
84. James T. Quinlivan, "Coup-Proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East," International Security 24 (Autumn 1999), 134.
85. Steven Heydemann, Authoritarianism in Syria: Institutions and Social Conflict, 1946-1970 (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1999), 2-4.
86. On Bashar's heir apparency in the late 1990s and succession during June-July 2000, see Joshua A. Stacher, "Adapting Authoritarianism: Institutions and Co-optation in Egypt and Syria" ( Ph.D. diss., University of St. Andrew's, 2007), 122-28.
87. Quinlivan (fn. 41), 134.
88. Two empirical cases in which succession was screened from observation are the December 1989 ouster of Nicolae Ceauşescu in Romania and the March 2003 deposition of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. In Romania, Nicu Ceauşescu had been the clear frontrunner to succeed his father. In Iraq, Hussein's heir apparent was his son Qusay. But hereditary succession plans in these cases were not a proximate cause of the ruler's removal. These cases are therefore not considered as confirming or disconfirming the present theory. On dynastic socialism in Romania and the overthrow of Ceauşescu see René de Flers, "Socialism in One Family," Survey: A Journal of East & West Studies 28 (Winter 1984);
89. Vladimir Tismaneanu, "Ceauşescu's Socialism," Problems of Communism 34 (January-February 1985);
90. and Chirot (fn. 32), 256. On Saddam Hussein's regime and Qusay's promotion see "Iraq-Government Saddam Hussein's Second Son Named to Governing Council," EFE News Service, June 9, 2001, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed June 18, 2007).
91. I treat biological opportunity as exogenous. For example, I do not seek to explain why António Salazar never married or why Francisco Franco sired no sons. Rather, I note those facts as they affect the question of why the Portuguese and Spanish regimes did not have hereditary successions while others, such as the Syrian regime, did.
92. In the data set there are six rulers who took office through coups while between the ages of twenty-five and thirty: Valentine Strasser (Sierra-Leone), Michel Micombero (Burundi), Muammar Qadhafi (Libya), Samuel Doe (Liberia), Gnassingbé Eyadéma (Togo), and Marien Ngouabi (Congo-Brazaville). Youth appears to be less a barrier to seizing power than it is for being granted power by an incumbent.
93. Following this operationalization, I exclude the Haitian case from subsequent inferences. Although the Duvaliers are an iconic example of hereditary succession, François Duvalier's grooming of his son appears to be exceptional. Inclusion of Haiti in the analysis would strengthen the postulated relationship between institutional antecedents and succession practices. See David Nicholls, "The Duvalier Regime in Haiti," in Chehabi and Linz (fn. 23).
94. Frank Moya Pons, "The Dominican Republic Since 1930," in Leslie Bethelled., The Cambridge History of Latin America, vol. 8, Latin America since 1930: Spanish South America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), 509.
95. Jonathan Hartlyn, "The Trujillo Regime in the Dominican Republic," in Chehabi and Linz (fn. 23), 91.
96. Pons (fn. 49), 510, 512, 521;
97. and Crassweller (fn. 32), 99-100.
98. "Guarding the Heir," Time, February 17, 1958, http:// www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816, 862920,00.html (accessed May 17, 2007).
99. "Ramfis in Power," Time, June 16, 1961, http://www. time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,895364,00.html (accessed May 17, 2007).
100. Hartlyn (fn. 50), 103.
101. In his discussion of hereditary succession Tullock asks, "Why did it take the direct intervention by the American government after the death of Trujillo to prevent his son from remaining in control of the family hacienda?" Tallock (fn. 10), 163.
102. Linda Greenhouse, "A Colonel at 6," New York Times, December 29, 1969, 29.
103. Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995), 276-77.
104. "Taiwan1s No. 2 Man: Chiang Ching-kuo," New York Times, January 14, 1965, 4.
105. Tillman Durdin, "Chiang's Role Shrinking," New York Times, March 22, 1971, 13;
106. "Nationalist China's New Premier: Chiang Ching-kuo," New York Times, May 27,1972, 4;
107. and "Premier in Taipei Running Regime," New York Times, April 1, 1973, 6.
108. "Chiang Kai-shek is Dead in Taipei at 87," New York Times, April 6, 1975, 1, 47.
109. Ian Buruma, "Reclaiming Taiwan," New York Times, September 18, 1988, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23, 2006);
110. and "History of Taiwan Ruling Nationalist Party," Reuters News, March 17, 2000, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23, 2006).
111. "Azerbaijan: Political Forces," Economist Intelligence Unit: Views Wire, June 26, 2006, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23, 2006).
112. David Stern, "Dynasty in Making as Aliyev's Son Charts Path to Azeri Presidency," Agence Franc-Presse, December 22, 1999, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007).
113. Susan B. Glasser, "President's Son Sweeps Election in Azerbaijan," Washington Post, October 16, 2003, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 21, 2007);
114. and Guy Dinmore, "U.S. Stands by Its Decision on Azeri Poll Result," Financial Times, October 23, 2003, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 21, 2007).
115. "Azerbaijan: Political Forces" (fn. 62).
116. Yong Mun Cheong, "The Political Structures of the Independent States," in Nicholas Tarling, ed., The Cambridge History of Southeast Asia, vol. 2, The Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993), 412, 414, 450-55, 457;
117. Michael Leifer, Dictionary of the Modern Politics of Southeast Asia, 3rd ed. (London: Routledge, 2001), 164-65;
118. and Andrew T H. Tan, A Political and Economic Dictionary of South-East Asia (London: Europa Publications, 2004), 159-160.
119. Michael Haas, "A Political History," in Michael Haas, ed., The Singapore Puzzle (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1999), 26;
120. Vasil (fn. 16), 135;
121. Chris Lydgate, Lees Law: How Singapore Crushes Dissent (Melbourne: Scribe Publications, 2003), 222.
122. John Burton, "Singapore's New Prime Minister Faces Tough Task," Financial Times, August 12, 2004, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 22, 2007);
123. and "World in Brief," Washington Post, August 13,2004, Dow Jones & Reuters, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 22, 2007).
124. Harvey Glickman, ed., Political Leaders of Contemporary Africa South of the Sahara: A Biographical Dictionary (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1992), 76
125. Yomi Durotoye, "Republic of Togo," in George E. Delury, ed, World Encyclopedia of Political Systems and Parties, 3rd ed., (New York: Facts on File, 1999), 3:1110-11.
126. Jacques Lhuillery, "Eyadema: Africa's Longest Serving Ruler Who Evokes Strong Passions," Agence France-Presse, May 29, 2003, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23, 2006).
127. "Ruling Party 'Assured of Winning the Majority of Seats' in Elections," BBC Monitoring Africa, October 22, 2002, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed May 14,2007);
128. and "Assembly Revises Constitution... To Give More Terms for Presidents," All Africa, January 8, 2003, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed May 14, 2007).
129. "Togo's President Gives Son Ministry in New Cabinet," Reuters News, July 30, 2003, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 14, 2007).
130. "Has Eyadema Now Found a Successor?" All Africa, August 14, 2003, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 14, 2007).
131. "Togo Parliament Leader Unable to Return Home after President Dies," Agence France-Presse, February 5, 2005, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 14, 2007).
132. "Togo: Gnassingbe Digging in as the New Front Man for Togo's Long-Ruling Elite," All Africa, February 21, 2005, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed May 14, 2007).
133. John A. Booth, "Republic of Nicaragua," in Delury (fn. 70), 2:802.
134. Arthur S. Banks, Political Handbook of the World: 1975 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975), 246.
135. Victor Bulmer-Thomas. "Nicaragua since 1930," in Leslie Bethell, ed., The Cambridge History of Latin America, vol. 7, Latin America since 1930: Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), 331-34.
136. Richard Millett, Guardians of the Dynasty (Maryknoll, N.Y.: Orbis, 1977), 181-82;
137. and John A. Booth, "The Somoza Regime in Nicaragua," in Chehabi and Linz (fn. 23), 132-33.
138. Bulmer-Thomas (fn. 79), 342-44.
139. Mark B. Suh, "Korea (Democratic People's Republic/North Korea)," in Nohlen, Grotz, and Hartmann (fn. 6), 2:395.
140. Ibid., 396.
141. Tai Sung An, North Korea in Transition: From Dictatorship to Dynasty (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1983), 137, 141.
142. Ibid., 4, 155.
143. The prior edition called hereditary succession "a reactionary custom of exploitative societies..." Ibid., 150-51.
144. Chris Hedges, "Fist May Be of Iron, but Is Assad's Hand Weak?" New York Times, December 17, 1991, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 27, 2007);
145. and Caryle Murphy, Washington Post, "New High Profile for Assad's Son Suggests Heir Apparency," January 24, 1992, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed June 27, 2007).
146. Eyal Zisser, "Does Bashar al-Assad Rule Syria?" Middle East Quarterly 10 (Winter 2003).
147. Paul H. Lewis, "Paraguay since 1930," in Bethell (fn. 49), 252.
148. Thomas G. Sanders, The Fall of Stroessner: Continuity and Change in Paraguay (unknown: Universities Field Staff International, 1989), 1;
149. and Alain Rouquié, "The Military in Latin American Politics since 1930," in Leslie Bethell, ed., Latin America: Politics and Society Since 1930 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 199-200.
150. Carlos Miranda, The Steoessner Era: Authoritarian Ruk in Paraguay (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1990), 130-32.
151. Riordan Roett, "Paraguay after Stroessner," Foreign Affairs 68 (Spring 1989), 124-42;
152. Richard Snyder, "Explaining Transitions from Neopatrimonial Dictatorships," Comparative Politics 24 (July 1992), 391;
153. and Lewis (fn. 89), 265.
154. Alfredo Seiferheld, "Stroessner, Hemisphere's Most Durable Leader, Marks 33rd Anniversary," Associated Press, August 14, 1987, http://global.factiva.com (accessed April 22, 2007);
155. "Government Denies Stroessner Ailing," Latin American Southern Cone Report, November 17, 1988, http://global.factiva.com (accessed April 22, 2007);
156. and "Stroessner Seeks Approval to Promote Son to Colonel," Reuters News, December 14, 1988, http://global.factiva.com (accessed April 22, 2007).
157. Alan Riding, "Just a Question of Whose Snout is in the Trough," New York Times, February 6, 1989, http://global. factiva.com (accessed April 22, 2007).
158. Lewis (fn. 89), 264-66.
159. "State Department Issues Background Note on Paraguay," US Fed News, May 1, 2007, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007).
160. Arthur S. Banks, Political Handbook of the World: 1975 (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975), 42-43.
161. Carl Beck, William Jarzabek, and Paul H. Ernandez, Political Succession in Eastern Europe: Fourteen Case Studies (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, 1976), 9-10.
162. "President's Daughter Plays Major Role in Bulgaria," New York Times, November 9, 1980, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007);
163. "Obituary: Lyudmila Zhivkova, Bulgaria Culture Aide," New York Times, July 22, 1981, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007);
164. and John D. Bell, The Bulgarian Communist Party from Blagoev to Zhivkov (Palo Alto, Calif: Hoover Institution, 1986), 128.
165. Michael Simmons, "Country Debates the Sudden Death of Former Leader's Daughter," Guardian, July 24, 1991, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007).
166. Bell (fn. 99), 129.
167. "Zhivkov's Son Wins Promotion," Financial Times, July 10, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 31, 2007).
168. Mary Bhattia, "Bulgaria's Zhivkov Quits After 35 Years; Foreign Minister, 53, Replaces East Bloc's Longest-Serving Leader," Washington Post, November 11, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20,2007);
169. Judy Dempsey, "Bulgaria's Hardline Leader Quits," Financial Times, November 11, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007);
170. and Rada Nikolaev, "A Year of Crucial Change in Bulgaria," Report on Eastern Europe 1 (January 5, 1990), 7.
171. "Party Plenum Makes Changes in Politburo and Central Committee," BBC Monitoring Service, November 18, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007).
172. "New Bulgarian Leader Says He's for Free Elections," San Francisco Chronicle, November 18, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 20, 2007);
173. "Thousands Demand End to Monopoly of Power," Times, December 11, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed April 30, 2007);
174. "New Leaders Hold Faith with Communism," Independent-London, December 14, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed April 30,2007);
175. Rada Nikolaev, "Political Maneuvering before the Roundtable Talks," Report on Eastern Europe 1 (January 26, 1990), 6-7;
176. and Andrei Pantev, "The Historic Road of the Third Bulgarian State," in Iliana Zloch-Christy, ed., Bulgaria in a Time of Change: Economic and Political Dimensions (Brookfield, Vt.: Avebury, 1996), 20-21.
177. Vessela Sergueva, "Todor Zhivkov, Last of Eastern Europe's Communist Dinosaurs," Agence France-Presse, August 6, 1998, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed April 30, 2007).
178. Terry M. Mays, "United Republic of Tanzania," in Delury (fn. 70), 3:1090-93.
179. Glickman (fn. 69), 213.
180. Glenn Frankel, "Nyerere Resignation to End 23-Year Era in East Africa: Tanzania Needs New Leadership, He Says," Washington Post, December 9, 1984, http://global.factiva.com (accessed November 15, 2006);
181. and Hunter R. Clark "Making a Graceful Exit; Nyerere's Peaceful Departure Ends an Era in African History," Time, November 4, 1985, http://global.factiva.com (accessed November 15, 2006).
182. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, Okla.: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), 130.
183. Bernard Gwertzman, "U.S. Aide Says Iranian Authorities Seem Committed to Free Captives," New York Times, November 1, 1980, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 22, 2007);
184. John Kifner, "Iran Says Its Troops Have Mounted Counteroffensive," New York Times, January 6, 1981, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 22, 2007);
185. "Montazeri Chosen to be Khomeini's Successor," Associated Press, November 23, 1985, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 22, 2007);
186. and Wilfried Buchta, Who Rules Iran? The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic (Washington, D.C.: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2000), 54, 92.
187. "The Son Also Rises," Newsweek, June 9, 1980;
188. "Khomeini's Regime: The Squabbling Intensifies," Newsweek, November 17, 1986;
189. "Iran; Rafsanjani Dons His Wolf's Outfit," Economist, April 29, 1989;
190. and "The Day of Infinite Sadness," Economist, June 10, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 18, 2006).
191. "President Backs Ousting of Khomeini's Successor," Reuters News, March 31, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 22, 2007);
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