China's perceptions of U.S. intentions toward Taiwan: How hostile a hegemon?

Asian Survey

Volumn 47, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 268-287

  Kennedy, Andrew Bingham ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

China; Cross strait relations; Perceptions; Taiwan; U.S. China relations

Indexed keywords

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; PERCEPTION;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; NORTH AMERICA; TAIWAN; UNITED STATES;

EID: 34548456472     PISSN: 00044687     EISSN: 1533838X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1525/as.2007.47.2.268     Document Type: Review

References (68)

1. Thomas J. Christensen, "Posing Problems without Catching Up: China's Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy," International Security 25:4 (Spring 2001), pp. 5-40.
2. For a summary of these developments, see Michael S. Chase, "U.S.-Taiwan Security Cooperation: Enhancing an Unofficial Relationship," in Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Dangerous Strait: The U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), pp. 162-85.
3. "Taiwan White Paper," Beijing Review 43:10 (March 6, 2000), p. 21.
4. "Anti-Secession Law Adopted by NPC (Full Text)," China Daily, March 14, 2005, .
5. Chu Shulong, "Lengzhanhou Zhongmei Shuangbian he Diqu Zhanlue yu Anquan Guanxi" [Post-cold war U.S.-China bilateral and regional strategies and security relations], Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations] 5 (2000), p. 12.
6. Thomas J. Christensen, ""Beijing's Views of Taiwan and the United States in Early 2002: The Renaissance of Pessimism," China Leadership Monitor 3 (Summer 2002), p. 1.
7. See Philip C. Saunders, "China's America Watchers," China Quarterly 161 (March 2000), p. 45.
8. To ensure a relatively representative sample, I interviewed 26 individuals from a range of official and non-official institutions. These institutions included the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, the Academy of Military Science, the Central Party School, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, National Defense University, the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), Qinghua University, Beijing University, China Foreign Affairs University, People's University, Fudan University, and the Shanghai Institute for East Asian Studies.
9. The use of confidential interviews is of necessity a common practice in the study of Chinese security policy. For examples, see Robert Ross, "The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force," International Security 25:2 (Fall 2000), pp. 87-123;
10. Christensen, "Posing Problems";
11. and Saunders, "China's America Watchers."
12. For examples, see Wang Fan, "Meiguo de Taihai Weichi Xianzhuang Zhengce de Tanxi" [An analysis of the United States policy of maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait], Taipingyang Xuebao [Pacific Journal] 12 (2005), pp. 36-45;
13. Liu Jianfei, "Meiguo dui Hua Zhanlue de Zhuanbian Quxiang" [The changing direction of U.S. strategy toward China], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi [World Economics and Politics] 2 (2005), p. 34;
14. Wu Xianbin, "Bushe Zhengfu dui Tai Zhengce de Tedian ji qi Yuanyin" [The characteristics and causes of the Bush administration's policy toward Taiwan], Dangdai Yatai [Contemporary Asia-Pacific] 3 (2004), pp. 16-23.
15. One senior scholar estimated that roughly 90% of Chinese analysts believe that the United States is unofficially opposed to unification in any form. Interview by author, Beijing, April 25, 2006.
16. For a prominent articulation of this view during the later years of Clinton administration, see Su Ge, Meiguo Duihua Zhengce yu Taiwan Wenti [U.S. China policy and the Taiwan problem] (Beijing: World Knowledge Press, 1998), pp. 810-11.
17. For additional examples from this time period, see Yong Deng, "Hegemon on the Offensive: Chinese Perspectives on United States Global Strategy," Political Science Quarterly 116:3 (Fall 2001), p. 354, fn. 42.
18. For example, see Xia Liping, "Meiguo dui Hua Zhanlue ji qi Neizai Maodun" [U.S. China strategy and its inherent contradictions], Dangdai Yatai [Contemporary Asia-Pacific] 2 (2004), p. 8. In some cases, the expression is abbreviated "no unification, no independence" (bu tong, bu du).
19. Wu Xinbo, "The Taiwan Issue and United States Asia/Pacific Security Strategy," American Foreign Policy Interests 24:3 (June 2002 , pp. 231-32.
20. Interview by author, Shanghai, June 3, 2005.
21. Personal communication, August 18, 2005.
22. Xu Shiquan, "Shou Tai Wuqi: Dui Zhong Mei Guanxi Shashangli Bu Jian" [Selling weapons to Taiwan: The injuriousness to U.S.-China relations is not decreasing], Guoji Xianqu Daobao [International Herald Leader] (Beijing), November 5, 2004, p. 1.
23. Interview by author, Beijing, April 27, 2006.
24. On this point, see Hu Jiping, "Mei Ri 'Gongtong Zhanlue Mubiao' yu Riben She Tai Lichang Bianhua" [The U.S.-Japan 'common strategic objective' and Japan's changing position on interference in Taiwan], Xiandai Guoji Guanxi [Contemporary International Relations] 3 (2005), p. 36.
25. Tao Wenzhao, "Meiguo dui Taiwan Zhengce de Yanbian" [The evolution of U.S. policy toward Taiwan], Zhongguo Shehuikexueyuan Xueshu Zixun Weiyuanhui Jikan [Collected papers of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Academic Consultative Committee] 2 (2005), p. 536.
26. Interview by author, Beijing, June 9, 2005.
27. Interview by author, Beijing, June 19, 2005.
28. Interviews by author, Beijing, June 13, 2005, and April 23, 2006.
29. Interview by author, Shanghai, June 1, 2005.
30. Interview by author, Beijing, June 19, 2005.
31. Interview by author, Beijing, April 18, 2006.
32. It was noted that the point was highly controversial, however. See Wang Jisi, "Zhong Mei Weiji Xingwei Bijiao Fenxi" [A comparison of U.S. and Chinese crisis behavior], Meiguo Yanjiu [American Studies Quarterly] 19:2 (Summer 2005), pp. 33-34.
33. Sun Zhe, "Meiguo zai Tai de 'Teshu Liyi' de Jian'gou" [The construction of the United States's 'special interest' in Taiwan], Taiwan Yanjiu Jikan [Taiwan Research Quarterly] (Xiamen, PRC) 1 (2005), p. 25.
34. Interview by author, Beijing, June 15, 2005.
35. For example, see Wang Jisi, "Sanshi Nian lai Zhong Mei Guanxi de Bian yu Bu Bian" [Change and continuity in the past 30 years of U.S.-China Relations], Zhongguo Dangzheng Ganbu Luntan [China Administrative Cadres' Forum] 7 (2002), pp. 36-39.
36. For an atypical analysis that stresses U.S. interest in Taiwanese democracy, see Xin Qiang and Ni Shixiong, "Xingweiti 'Shenfen' yu Dui Wai Zhengce: Mei Tai Guanxi de Jian'gouzhuyi Fenxi" [Actor 'identity' and foreign policy: A constructivist analysis of U.S.-Taiwan relations], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi 1 (2006), pp. 22-28.
37. Personal communication, April 12, 2006.
38. Niu Jun, "Meiguo dui Tai Zhengce de Yanbian: Yige Lishi de Sikao" [The evolution of U.S. Taiwan policy: A historical contemplation], Taipingyang Xuebao 2 (2005), p. 42.
39. See Zhang Qingmin, Meiguo dui Tai Junshou Zhengce Yanjiu: Juece de Shijiao [Research on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan: Perspectives on policy-making] (Beijing: World Knowledge Press, 2006).
40. Interview by author, Beijing, June 23, 2005.
41. Author's interview with Daniel Blumenthal, former senior country director for China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Mongolia, Office for International Security Affairs, DOD, August 3, 2005.
42. Author's interview with Richard Bush, former chairman and managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan, September 22, 2005.
43. Author's interview with Randall Schriver, former deputy assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, DOS, September 13, 2005.
44. Author's interview with Richard Bush.
45. Author's interview with Robert Suettinger, former NSC director of Asian Affairs, August 7, 2005.
46. A 2002 Harris Interactive poll of U.S. citizens found that 65% of respondents viewed Taiwan as a "vital interest" of the United States. See Public Opinion Online, "Worldviews 2002 Survey," October 2, 2002, accessible through "Polls and Surveys" in the Reference section of .
47. Richard Bush, "Domestic Political Considerations That Shape United States Policy toward China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan," in David M. Lampton and Alfred D. Wilhelm (eds.), United States and China Relations at a Crossroads (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1995), p. 152.
48. Author's interview with Richard Bush.
49. Author's interview with Kurt Campbell, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, October 11, 2005.
50. Author's interview with Robert Suettinger.
51. Author's interview with Randall Schriver.
52. Author's interview with Robert Suettinger.
53. "George W. Bush's Remarks in Kyoto, as Delivered," Federal Document Clearing House (FDCH) Political Transcripts, November 16, 2005,
54. Author's interview with Daniel Blumenthal.
55. Author's interview with Randall Schriver.
56. Kurt Campbell and Derek Mitchell, "Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?" Foreign Affairs 80:4 (July-August 2001), p. 14.
57. Author's interview with Richard Bush. More generally, see Michael McDevitt, "Taiwan: The Tail That Wags Dogs," National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) Analysis 16:1 (October 2005), pp. 87-91.
58. Author's interview with Randall Schriver.
59. Author's interview with Robert Suettinger.
60. Author's interview with Daniel Blumenthal.
61. See "U.S. Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC) Holds Hearing on the John Bolton Nomination," FDCH Political Transcripts, March 29, 2001, http://web.lexisnexis.com.ezp2.harvard.edu/universe/
62. Author's interview with Randall Schriver.
63. For the export total, see U.S. Department of Commerce, TradeStats Express, , accessed July 27, 2006.
64. For the investment figure, see Wayne Morrison, CRS Issue Brief for Congress: China's Economic Conditions, July 12, 2006, p. 6, .
65. Personal communication from Richard Bush, May 8, 2006.
66. Michael Swaine, presentation, Institute of International Studies, Qinghua University, May 23, 2005.
67. Alastair Iain Johnston, "Treating International Institutions as Social Environments," International Studies Quarterly 45:4 (December 2001), pp. 487-515.
68. Not all Chinese observers with experience in the U.S. held sanguine views, however. Instead, such experience seems to be a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the development of such views.