Energy scenarios: A review of methods, uses and suggestions for improvement

International Journal of Global Energy Issues

Volumn 27, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 302-322

  Nielsen, Stefan Krüger ^a   Karlsson, Kenneth ^a  

^a TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Backcasting; Energy system; Expectation; Forecasting; Foresight; Planning; Scenario; Strategy; Uncertainty; Vision

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; PUBLIC POLICY; STRATEGIC PLANNING;

BACKCASTING; ENERGY SYSTEM; UNCERTAIN PROJECTIONS;

ENERGY UTILIZATION;

ENERGY PLANNING; ENERGY POLICY; FORECASTING METHOD; MARKET CONDITIONS; POLICY MAKING; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 34548076391     PISSN: 09547118     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2007.014350     Document Type: Review

References (130)

1. Alberta Chamber of Resources (2004) Oil Sands Technology Roadmap, Alberta Chamber of Resources, Edmonton.
2. Alcamo, J. (2001) Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments, Environmental issues report No. 24, European Environment Agency.
3. Aleklett, K. and Campbell, C.J. (2004) 'The influence of markets and technology on regional oil and gas reserves', ECSSR 10th Annual Energy Conference: The Gulf Oil and Gas Sector: Potential and Constraints, Abu Dhabi.
4. American Council for the United Nations University/Millenium Project (1999) State of the Future: Challenges we Face at the Millennium, American Council for the United Nations University, Washington DC.
5. Ansolabehere, S. et al. (2003) The Future of Nuclear Power, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, ISBN 0-615-12420-8.
6. Baumgartner, T. and Midttun, A. (1987a) 'Energy forecasting: science, art and polities', in Baumgartner, T. and Midttun, A. (Eds.): The Politics of Energy Forecasting, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp.3-10.
7. Baumgartner, T. and Midttun, A. (1987b) 'Modelling and forecasting in self-reactive policy contexts: some meta-methodological comments', in Baumgartner, T. and Midttun, A. (Eds.): The Politics of Energy Forecasting, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp.291-308.
8. Bezdek, R.H. and Wendling, R.M. (2002) 'A half century of long-range energy forecasts: errors made, lessons learned, and implications for forecasting', Journal of Fusion Energy, Vol. 21, Nos. 3-4, pp. 155-172.
9. Bood, R. and Postma, T. (1997) 'Strategic learning with scenarios', European Management Journal, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp.633-647.
10. Bossel, U., Eliasson, B. and Taylor, G. (2003) The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak? European Fuel Cell Forum, www.wffc.com.
11. Bünger, U. (2004) Towards a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, www.HyNet.info.
12. Chermack, T.J., Lynham, S.A.E. and Rouna, W.E.A. (2003) 'A review of Scenario planning literature', Futures Research Quarterly, Vol. 17, No. 2, www.wfs.org/frqsum01.htm.
13. 2 from coal with commercially ready technology. Part A: performance and emissions', International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 30, No. 7, pp.747-767.
14. Christensen, B.L. and Nørgaard, J.S. (1976) 'Social values and the limits to growth', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 9, pp.411-423.
15. Craig, P.P., Gadgil, A. and Koomey, J.G. (2002) 'What can history teach us? a retrospective examination of long-term energy forecasts for the United States', Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 27, pp.83-118.
16. Danish Energy Agency (1996) Energy 21, Danish Ministry for Environment and Energy, København.
17. Davis, G. (2001) Evolving Sources or Revolutionary Technology - Exploring Alternative Energy Paths to 2050, Shell International Limited, London.
18. Davis, G. (2002) Scenarios as a Tool for the 21st Century, Shell International Limited, London.
19. de Geus, A.P. (1998) 'Planning as learning', Harvard Business Review, March 1, p.5.
20. Dreborg, K.H. (1996) 'Essence of backcasting', Futures, Vol. 28, No. 9, pp.813-828.
21. Dunn, S. (2000) Micropower: The Next Electrical Era, World Watch Institute, Washington DC.
22. Dunn, S. (2001) Hydrogen Futures: Toward a Sustainable Energy System, Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC.
23. Dunn, S. (2002) 'Hydrogen futures: toward a sustainable energy system', International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp.235-264.
24. Electric Power Research Institute (2003) Electricity Technology Roadmap - Meeting the Critical Challenges of the 21st Century, Palo Alto, California.
25. Elsam (2004) Energy Together, Elsam, Denmark.
26. Elzen, B., Geels, F.W. and Hofman, P.S. (2002) Sociotechnical Scenarios - Development and Evaluation of a New Methodology to Explore Transitions Towards a Sustainable Energy Supply, University of Twente, Centre for Studies of Science, Technology and Society, Enschede.
27. Energy Information Administration (2004) International Energy Outlook 2004, Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, US Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585.
28. European Commission (2003) World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, Office for official publications of the European Commision, Luxembourg.
29. European Environment Agency (2000) Cloudy Crystal Balls an assessment of Recent European and Global Scenario Studies and Models, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
30. European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) (2004) Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040, Brussels, www.erec-renewables.org.
31. Exxon Mobile (2004) A Report on Energy Trends, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Alternative Energy, Exxon Mobile.
32. Foresight Vehicle (2004) Foresight Vehicle Technology Roadmap - Technology and Research Directions for Future Road Vehicles, Foresight Vehicle.
33. Gallopin, G., Hammond, A., Raskin, P. and Swart, R. (1997) Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice, Srockholm Environment Institute, Sweden.
34. Godet, M. and Roubelat, F. (1996) 'Creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios', Long Range Planning, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp.164-171.
35. Gray, D. and Tomlinson, G. (2002) Hydrogen from Coal, Mitretek Technical Paper MTR 2002-31, USA.
36. Hård, M. and Knie, A. (1993) 'The ruler of the game: the defining power of the standard automobile', in Sørensen, K.H. (Ed.): The Car and Its Environments - the Past and Future of the Motorcar in Europe - Proceedings from the COST A4 Workshop in Trondheim, Norway, May 6-8, European Commission, Brussels, pp. 137-158.
37. Hirsch, R.L., Bezdek, R.H. and Wendling, R.M. (2005) Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, Peakoil.com, US DoE.
38. Hoffert, M.I. et al. (2002) 'Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet', Science, Vol. 298, pp.981-987.
39. Hofman, P.S., Elzen, B. and Geels, F.W. (2004) 'Sociotechnical scenarios as a new policy tool to explore system innovations: co-evolution of technology and society in the Netherlands electricity domain', Innovation: Management, Policy and Practice, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp.344-360.
40. IIASA and World Energy Council (1998) Global Energy Perspectives, World Energy Council, London.
41. Illum, K. (2004) Energiøkonomi 2005-2030, Nyhedsmagasinet Ingeniøren, Copenhagen.
42. Illum, K. (2005) IEA Oil Projections Revisited, http://www.odac-info.org/.
43. Illum, K. and Möller, B. (1998) Energipolitikkens Teknologiske Ráderum, Institut for Samfundsudvikling og Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet, Aalborg.
44. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2000) IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarions Summary for Policy Makers, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
45. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change 2001: Mitigation.
46. Interlaboratory Working Group (2000) Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, ORNL/CON-476, LBNL-44029 and NREL/TP-620+29379, USA.
47. International Energy Agency (2000) World Energy Outlook 2000, International Energy Agency, Paris.
48. International Energy Agency (2001) Toward a Sustainable Energy Future, International Energy Agency, Paris.
49. International Energy Agency (2003) Energy to 2050 Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, International Energy Agency, Paris.
50. International Energy Agency (2004) World Energy Outlook 2004, International Energy Agency, Paris.
51. Islas, J. (1997) 'Getting round the lock-in in electricity generating systems: the example of the gas turbine', Research Policy, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp.49-66.
52. Islas, J. (1999) 'The gas turbine: a new technological paradigm in electricity generation', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 129-148.
53. Jefferson, M. (2000) 'Long-term energy scenarios: the approach of the World Energy Council', Int. J Global Energy Issues, Vol. 13, Nos. 1-3, pp.277-284.
54. Kahane.Adam (1992) 'Scenarios for energy: sustainable world vs. global mercantilism', Long Range Planning, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp.38-46.
55. Kahn, H. and Wiener, A.J. (1967) The Year 2000. A Framework for Speculating on the Next Thirty-Three Years, MacMillan, New York.
56. Keepin, B. and Wynne, B. (1987) 'The roles of models - what can we expect from science? A study of the IIASA world energy model', in Baumgartner, T. and Midttun, A. (Eds.): The Politics of Energy Forecasting, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp.33-57.
57. Kuemmel, B. (2000) 'A global clean fossil scenario', Int. J. Global Energy Issues, Vol. 13, Nos. 1-3, pp. 181-195.
58. Kuemmel, B., Nielsen, S.K. and Sørensen, B. (1997) Life-Cycle Analysis of Energy Systems, Roskilde University Press, Roskilde.
59. Longwell, H.J. (2002) 'The future of the oil and gas industry: past approaches, new challenges', World Energy, Vol. 5, No. 3, Ref Type: Magazine Article.
60. Lovins, A. (1977) Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace, Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge Mass.
61. Lovins, A. and Cramer, D.R. (2004) 'Hypercars, hydrogen and the automotive transition', Int. J. Vehicle Design, Vol. 35, Nos. 1-2, pp.50-85.
62. Midttun, A. and Baumgartner, T. (1986) 'Negotiating energy futures the politics of energy forecasting', Energy Policy, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp.219-241.
63. Miljø- og Energiministeriet (1996) Energi 21, Miljø- og Energiministeriet, København.
64. Morris, D. (2004) A Better Way to Get from Here to There - A Commentary on the Hydrogen Economy and a Proposal for an Alternative Strategy, Institute for Local Self-Reliance, Minneapolis.
65. Morthorst, P.E. and Varming, S. (1994) Fremtidsbilleder for det Danske Samfund - Med Speciel Vœgt på Energisystemet, Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde.
66. Nakicenovic, N. (2000) 'Energy scenarios', World Energy Assessment, U.N.D.o.E.a.S.A. & W.E.C.
67. United Nations Development Programme, ed., United Nations Development Programme, New York, pp.332-366.
68. National Center for Photovoltaics (2003) Solar Electric Power - The U.S.A. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap, USA, www.nrel.gov/ncpv/pvplans.html.
69. National Reserach Council National Academies Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (2004) The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs, The National Academy Press, Washington DC.
70. Natural Resources Canada (1999) Energy Technology Futures 2050, Office of Energy Technology Futures of Natural Resources Canada.
71. Nielsen, L.H. (Ed.) (1994) Vedvarende Energi i Stor Skala til el- og Varmeproduktion, Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde.
72. Nielsen, S.K. and Sorensen, B. (1996) 'A fair-market scenario for the European energy system', Long-Term Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into the European Energy System, The LTI-Research Group, ed., Physica-Varlag, Heidelberg.
73. Nørgaard, J.S. (2000) 'Models of energy saving systems: the battlefield of environmental planning', Int. J. Global Energy Issues, Vol. 13, Nos. 1-3, pp.102-122.
74. Nørgård, J. (1974) Technological and Social Measures to Conserve Energy, Research Program on Technology and Public Policy, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Nanover, New Hampshire.
75. Notten, P.W.F., Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M.B.A. and Rothman, D.S. (2003) 'An updated scenario typology', Futures, Vol. 35, pp.423-443.
76. Odell, P.R. (2003) The Global Energy Outlook for the 21st Century, University of Rotterdam, Rotterdam.
77. OPEC (2005) Oil Outlook to 2025, OPEC.
78. Pacala, S. and Socolow, R. (2004) 'Stabilization wedges: solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technologies', Science, Vol. 305, pp.968-972.
79. Pedersen, S.L. and Gundermann, J. (2000) 'Danish long-term energy scenarios', International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp.285-292.
80. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J.P. and Probert, D.R. (2004) 'Technology roadmapping - a planning framework for evolution and revolution', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 71, Nos. 1-2, pp.5-26.
81. Raskin, P., Banuri, T., Gallopin, G., Gutman, P., Hammond, A., Kates, R. and Swart, R. (2002) Great Transition, Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston.
82. Raskin, P., Gallopin, G., Gutman, P., Hammond, A. and Swart, R.J. (1998) Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability, Stockholm Environment Institute, Pole Star Series Report No. 8, Sweden.
83. Rifkin, J. (2002) The Hydrogen Economy, Putnam books, Tarcher, ISBN 1-58542-193-6.
84. Rip, A. and Kemp, R. (1998) 'Technological change', in Rayner, S. and Malone, E.L. (Eds.): Human Choice and Climate Change - Volume 2 - Resources and Technology, Batelle Press, Columbus, Ohio.
85. Robinson, J. (1982) 'Energy backcasting - a proposed method of policy analysis', Energy Policy, Vol. 10, No. 4, December, pp.337-344.
86. Robinson, J. (2003) 'Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning', Futures, Vol. 35, No. 8, pp.839-856.
87. Rogner, H.H. (2004) Nuclear Power and Sustainable Energy Development, 19th World Energy Congress, Sydney.
88. Romeri, M.V. and Sim, R. (2004) 'Hydrogen: a new possible bridge between mobility and distributed generation (CHP)', 19th World Energy Conference, Sydney.
89. Romm, J. (2004) The Hype about Hydrogen, Island Press, Washington DC.
90. Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M., Anastasi, C., Greeuw, S., Mellors, J., Peters, S., Rothman, D. and Rijkens, N. (2000) 'Visions for a sustainable Europe', Futures, Vol. 32, Nos. 9-10, pp.809-831.
91. Sachs, W. (1992) For Love of the Automobile - Looking Back into the History of our Desires, Berkeley University of California Press, California, USA.
92. Schipper, L. and Meyers, S. (1993) 'Using scenarios to explore future energy demand in industrialised countries', Energy Policy, Vol. 21, No. 3, March, pp.264-275.
93. Schipper, L., Hawk, D. and Vine, E. (1989) 'Linking life-styles and energy use: a matter of time?', Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 14, pp.273-320.
94. Schot, J., Hoogma, R. and Elzen, B. (1994) 'Strategies for shifting technological systems - the case of the automobile system', Futures, Vol. 26, No. 10, pp.1060-1076.
95. Schwartz, P. (1998) The Art of the Long View, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
96. Shell (1992) Global Scenarios 1992-2020.
97. Shell (1995) Global Scenarios 1995-2020, Shell.
98. Shell (2001) Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities Scenarios to 2050, Shell International Limited, London SE1 7NA.
99. Shell (2004a) People and Connections - Global Scenarios to 2020 Public Summary, Shell.
100. Shell (2004b) Global Scenarios 1998-2020, Shell.
101. Shove, E.G.S., Hackett, B. and Wilhite, H. (1998) 'Energy and social systems', in Rayner, S. and Malone, E.L. (Eds.): Human Choice and Climate Change - Volume 2 - Resources and Technology, Batelle Press, Columbus, Ohio.
102. Silberglitt, R., Hove, A. and Shulman, P. (2003) 'Analysis of US energy scenarios: meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 70, No. 4, pp.297-315.
103. 2 capture and storage - the essential bridge to the hydrogen economy', Energy, Vol. 29, Nos. 9-10, pp.1633-1641.
104. Smil, V. (2000) 'Perils of long-range energy forecasting: reflections on looking far ahead', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 65, No. 3, pp.251-264.
105. Sorensen, B. (1975) 'Energy and resources', Science, Vol. 189, No. 4199, pp.255-260.
106. Sorensen, B. (1981) 'Renewable energy planning for Denmark and other countries', Energy, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp.293-303.
107. Sorensen, B. (1999) Long-term Scenarios for Global Energy Demand and Supply: Four Global Greenhouse Mitigation Scenarios, Roskilde University, Department for Mathematics and Physics, Roskilde, Denmark, (Tekster fra IMFUFA, p.359).
108. Sørensen, B. and Meibom, P. (2000) 'A global renewable energy scenario', Int. J. Global Energy Issues, Vol. 13, Nos. 1-3, pp. 196-276.
109. Sorensen, B. et al. (2001) Scenarier for Samlet Udnyttelse af Brint som Energibœrer i Danmarks Fremtidige Energisystem, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark, p.390.
110. Sorensen, B., Hauge Petersen, A., Juhl, C., Ravn, H., Sondergren, C., Simonsen, P., Jorgensen, K., Henrik Nielsen, L., Larsen, V. and Erik Morthorst, P. (2004) 'Hydrogen as an energy carrier: scenarios for future use of hydrogen in the Danish energy system 1 ', International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp.23-32.
111. Sørensen, B., Nielsen, L.H., Pedersen, S.L., Ilium, K. and Morthorst, P.E. (1994) Fremtidens Vedvarende Energisystem, Teknologinævnet, København.
112. Sørensen, L. and Vidal, V. (1999) Strategi og Planlœgning som Lœreproces, Copenhagen Business School Press, Copenhagen.
113. Spaargaren, G. (1997) The Ecological Modernisation of Production and Consumption - Essays in Environmental Sociology, Landbouw Universiteit, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
114. United Kingdom Department of Trade and Industry (2004) Energy for Tomorrow - Powering the 21st Century, Foresight Programme - Office of Science and Technology, UK.
115. United Nations Development Programme (2000) U.N.D.o.E.a.S.A.&.W.E.C., World Energy Assessment United Nations Development Programme, New York.
116. United States Department of Energy's Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee (2002) A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, US DoE.
117. Unruh, G.C. (2002) 'Escaping carbon lock-in', Energy Policy, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp.317-325.
118. US Department of Energy (2002) National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, US DoE.
119. US Department of Energy (2004) Carbon Sequestration Carbon Sequestration Technology Roadmap and Program Plan, US Department of Energy, US DoE.
120. van der Heiden, K. (1996) Scenarios - The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
121. Wack, P. (1985a) 'Scenarios: shooting the rapids', Harvard Business Review, Vol. 63, No. 6, pp. 139-150.
122. Wack, P. (1985b) 'Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead', Harvard Business Review, Vol. 63, No. 5, pp. 72-79.
123. Weizsäcker, E., Lovins, A.B. and Lovins, L.H. (1997) Factor Four Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use, Earthscan, London.
124. Wilhite, H. (2000) 'Energy research on consumption and lifestyles - international perspectives and new directions', in Gundelach, P. and Kuehn, S. (Eds.): Energi og Livsstil - Proceedings from a Seminar on Scandinavian Lifestyle Research, Department for Sociology, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen.
125. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2004a) Facts and Trends to 2050 - Energy and Climate Change.
126. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2004b) Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability.
127. World Energy Council (2000) Energy for Tomorrow's World Acting Now!, Atalink Projects.
128. World Energy Council (2003) Drivers of the Energy Scene, London.
129. World Energy Council (2004) Survey of Energy Resources, World Energy Council, London.
130. Yeager, K.E. (2004) 'Electricity for the 21st century: digital electricity for a digital economy', Technology in Society, Vol. 26, Nos. 2-3, pp.209-221.