Analysis of US energy scenarios: Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 70, Issue 4, 2003, Pages 297-315

  Richard, Silberglitt ^a   Anders, Hove ^a   Peter, Shulman ^a  

^a RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

Author keywords

Energy; Futures; Pathways; Policy; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

CARBON; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY UTILIZATION; PLANNING;

CARBON CONTENT;

ENERGY MANAGEMENT;

ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY PLANNING; ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY USE; FUTURE PROSPECT;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 0037400978     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0040-1625(02)00254-8     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. V. Smil, Perils of long-range energy forecasting: Reflections on looking far ahead. Technol, Forecast. Soc. Change 65 (2000) 251-264.
2. V. Smil, Perils of long-range energy forecasting: Reflections on looking far ahead, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 65 (2000) 260.
3. P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Doubleday, New York, 1996.
4. Figs. 1-4 are reproduced from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Energy in the United States: A Brief History and Current Trends, 1999. Available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh1999/eh1999.html.
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2001. Available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.
6. EIA holds an annual conference to review NEMS data, methods, and results, including uncertainties. Presentation briefing charts from the March 12, 2002 conference can be accessed at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/conf/ handouts.html.
7. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1998 (October).
8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1999 (July).
9. WEFA, Global Warming: The High Cost of the Kyoto Protocol, National and State Impacts, 1998, summarized in U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1998 (October ).
10. R. Sands, PNNL, e-mail communication summarized in U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1998 (October).
11. Standard and Poors DRI, The Impact of Meeting the Kyoto Protocol on Energy Markets and the Economy, Appendix 1: National Impacts, July 1998, summarized in U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1998 (October ).
12. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and World Energy Council (WEC), in: N. Nakicenovic, A. Grubler, A. McDonald (Eds.), Global Energy Perspectives, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1998.
13. Royal Dutch Shell Energy Scenarios. Available at: http://www.shell.com/royal-en/content/0,5028,25432-50913,00.html.
14. ACEEE, Alliance to Save Energy, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Union of Concerned Scientists, America's Energy Choices Investing in a Strong Economy and a Clean Environment, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, 1991.
15. ACEEE, Alliance to Save Energy, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Union of Concerned Scientists, Energy Innovations: A Prosperous Path to a Clean Environment, Alliance to Save Energy, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Natural Resources Defense Council, Tellus Institute, and Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, 1997.
16. C. Heaps, E. Kemp-Benedict, P. Raskin, Conventional Worlds: Technical Description of Bending the Curve Scenarios. Sweden, Environmental Institute and Global Scenario Group, Sweden, 1998.
17. Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 1997, available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA.
18. Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, November 2000, available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA, http://www/ornl.gov/ORNL/Energyf/CEF.htm.
19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in: N. Nakicenovic, R. Swart (Eds.), Emissions Scenarios 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000.
20. National Resource Council, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 2001.
21. 2 Emissions Estimates from Fossil Fuel Burning, Cement Production, and Gas Flaring: 1950-1994 (revised February 1997), ORNL/CDIAC NDP-030/R7, electronic data base.
22. V. Smil, op. cit., pp. 254-256.
23. President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, Powerful Partnerships: A Synthesis of a Report by the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President of the United States, Washington, DC, 1999 (August).