-
1
-
-
0033554707
-
Do-it-yourself climate prediction
-
doi:10.1038/44266
-
Allen, M. 1999 Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature 401, 642. (doi:10.1038/44266)
-
(1999)
Nature
, vol.401
, pp. 642
-
-
Allen, M.1
-
2
-
-
0037068496
-
Toward objective probabilistic climate forecasting
-
doi:10.1038/nature01092a
-
Allen, M. R. & Stainforth, D. A. 2002 Toward objective probabilistic climate forecasting. Nature 419, 228. (doi:10.1038/nature01092a)
-
(2002)
Nature
, vol.419
, pp. 228
-
-
Allen, M.R.1
Stainforth, D.A.2
-
3
-
-
0034609871
-
Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
-
doi:10.1038/35036559
-
Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R. & Thomas, L. D. 2000 Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407, 617-620. (doi:10.1038/35036559)
-
(2000)
Nature
, vol.407
, pp. 617-620
-
-
Allen, M.R.1
Stott, P.A.2
Mitchell, J.F.B.3
Schnur, R.4
Thomas, L.D.5
-
4
-
-
0002289566
-
Projections of future climate change
-
eds J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden & D. Xiaoxu, p, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
-
Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Diz, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S. & Yap, K. S. 2001 Projections of future climate change. In Climate change 2001: the scientific basis (eds J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden & D. Xiaoxu), p. 944. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
-
(2001)
Climate change 2001: The scientific basis
, pp. 944
-
-
Cubasch, U.1
Meehl, G.A.2
Boer, G.J.3
Stouffer, R.J.4
Diz, M.5
Noda, A.6
Senior, C.A.7
Raper, S.8
Yap, K.S.9
-
5
-
-
0002629270
-
Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the em algorithm
-
Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M. & Rubin, D. B. 1977 Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the em algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 39, 1-38.
-
(1977)
J. R. Stat. Soc. B
, vol.39
, pp. 1-38
-
-
Dempster, A.P.1
Laird, N.M.2
Rubin, D.B.3
-
6
-
-
85020787965
-
-
Efron, B. & Tibshirani, R. J. 1993 An introduction to the bootstrap. Monographs on statistics and applied probability 57. London, UK: Chapman and Hall.
-
Efron, B. & Tibshirani, R. J. 1993 An introduction to the bootstrap. Monographs on statistics and applied probability 57. London, UK: Chapman and Hall.
-
-
-
-
7
-
-
29344459587
-
Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations
-
doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024288
-
Giorgi, F. & Bi, X. 2005 Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21 715. (doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024288)
-
(2005)
Geophys. Res. Lett
, vol.32
-
-
Giorgi, F.1
Bi, X.2
-
8
-
-
33749069924
-
Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections
-
doi:10.1175/JCLI3864.1
-
Greene, A. M., Goddard, L. & Lall, U. 2006 Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections. J. Clim. 19, 4326-4343. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3864.1)
-
(2006)
J. Clim
, vol.19
, pp. 4326-4343
-
-
Greene, A.M.1
Goddard, L.2
Lall, U.3
-
9
-
-
0001259111
-
Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial (with discussion)
-
doi:10.1214/ss/1009212519
-
Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D. M., Raftery, A. E. & Volinsky, C. T. 1999 Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with discussion). Stat. Sci. 14, 382-401. (doi:10.1214/ss/1009212519)
-
(1999)
Stat. Sci
, vol.14
, pp. 382-401
-
-
Hoeting, J.A.1
Madigan, D.M.2
Raftery, A.E.3
Volinsky, C.T.4
-
10
-
-
0038227570
-
Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001
-
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0206: HALSSA>2.0.CO;2
-
Jones, P. D. & Moberg, A. 2003 Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Clim. 16, 206-223. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0206: HALSSA>2.0.CO;2)
-
(2003)
J. Clim
, vol.16
, pp. 206-223
-
-
Jones, P.D.1
Moberg, A.2
-
11
-
-
0242666136
-
Detection of a human influence on North American climate
-
doi:10.1126/science.1089159
-
Karoly, D. J., Braganza, K., Stott, P. A., Arblaster, J. M., Meehl, G. A., Broccoli, A. J. & Dixon, K. W. 2003 Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science 302, 1200-1203. (doi:10.1126/science.1089159)
-
(2003)
Science
, vol.302
, pp. 1200-1203
-
-
Karoly, D.J.1
Braganza, K.2
Stott, P.A.3
Arblaster, J.M.4
Meehl, G.A.5
Broccoli, A.J.6
Dixon, K.W.7
-
12
-
-
84950934893
-
Bayes factors
-
doi:10.2307/2291091
-
Kass, R. E. & Raftery, A. E. 1995 Bayes factors. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90, 773-795. (doi:10.2307/2291091)
-
(1995)
J. Am. Stat. Assoc
, vol.90
, pp. 773-795
-
-
Kass, R.E.1
Raftery, A.E.2
-
13
-
-
33745473817
-
A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models
-
doi:10.1029/2006GL025779
-
Min, S. K. & Hense, A. 2006a A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging with an application to global mean surface temperatures from IPCC AR4 coupled climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L08 708. (doi:10.1029/2006GL025779)
-
(2006)
Geophys. Res. Lett
, vol.33
-
-
Min, S.K.1
Hense, A.2
-
14
-
-
33745459465
-
20066 A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: Global mean surface temperature
-
doi:10.1175/JCLI3784.1
-
Min, S. K. & Hense, A. 20066 A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: global mean surface temperature. J. Clim. 19, 3237-3256. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3784.1)
-
J. Clim
, vol.19
, pp. 3237-3256
-
-
Min, S.K.1
Hense, A.2
-
15
-
-
34447285528
-
A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part II: Regional and seasonal mean surface temperatures
-
Min, S. K. & Hense, A. 2007 A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part II: regional and seasonal mean surface temperatures. J. Clim. 20, 2769-2790.
-
(2007)
J. Clim
, vol.20
, pp. 2769-2790
-
-
Min, S.K.1
Hense, A.2
-
16
-
-
17744394346
-
A Bayesian decision method for climate change signal analysis
-
doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2004/0013-0421
-
Min, S.-K., Hense, A., Paeth, H. & Kwon, W.-T. 2004 A Bayesian decision method for climate change signal analysis. Meteorol. Z. 13, 421-436. (doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2004/0013-0421)
-
(2004)
Meteorol. Z
, vol.13
, pp. 421-436
-
-
Min, S.-K.1
Hense, A.2
Paeth, H.3
Kwon, W.-T.4
-
17
-
-
4043124611
-
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
-
doi:10.1038/nature02771
-
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M. & Stainforth, D. A. 2004 Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430, 768-772. (doi:10.1038/nature02771)
-
(2004)
Nature
, vol.430
, pp. 768-772
-
-
Murphy, J.M.1
Sexton, D.M.H.2
Barnett, D.N.3
Jones, G.S.4
Webb, M.J.5
Collins, M.6
Stainforth, D.A.7
-
18
-
-
0003564167
-
-
Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R, eds, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
-
Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. (eds) 2000 Special report on emissions scenarios, p. 612. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
-
(2000)
Special report on emissions scenarios
, pp. 612
-
-
-
19
-
-
31544456597
-
Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations
-
doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024452
-
Piani, C., Frame, D. J., Stainforth, D. A. & Allen, M. R. 2005 Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L23 825. (doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024452)
-
(2005)
Geophys. Res. Lett
, vol.32
-
-
Piani, C.1
Frame, D.J.2
Stainforth, D.A.3
Allen, M.R.4
-
20
-
-
20444497873
-
Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
-
doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1
-
Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. & Polakowski, M. 2005 Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1155-1174. (doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1)
-
(2005)
Mon. Weather Rev
, vol.133
, pp. 1155-1174
-
-
Raftery, A.E.1
Gneiting, T.2
Balabdaoui, F.3
Polakowski, M.4
-
21
-
-
13444269104
-
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
-
doi:10.1038/nature03301
-
Stainforth, D. A. et al. 2005 Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433, 403-406. (doi:10.1038/nature03301)
-
(2005)
Nature
, vol.433
, pp. 403-406
-
-
Stainforth, D.A.1
-
22
-
-
0141907747
-
Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes
-
doi:10.1029/2003GL017324
-
Stott, P. A. 2003 Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1728. (doi:10.1029/2003GL017324)
-
(2003)
Geophys. Res. Lett
, vol.30
, pp. 1728
-
-
Stott, P.A.1
-
23
-
-
0037129227
-
Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise
-
doi:10.1038/416723a
-
Stott, P. A. & Kettleborough, J. A. 2002 Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 416, 723-726. (doi:10.1038/416723a)
-
(2002)
Nature
, vol.416
, pp. 723-726
-
-
Stott, P.A.1
Kettleborough, J.A.2
-
24
-
-
33644758562
-
Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions
-
doi:10.1029/2005GL024423
-
Stott, P. A., Kettleborough, J. A. & Allen, M. R. 2006 Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02 708. (doi:10.1029/2005GL024423)
-
(2006)
Geophys. Res. Lett
, vol.33
-
-
Stott, P.A.1
Kettleborough, J.A.2
Allen, M.R.3
-
25
-
-
14544287376
-
Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles
-
doi:10.1175/JCLI3363.1
-
Tebaldi, C., Smith, R. L., Nychka, D. & Mearns, L. O. 2005 Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J. Clim. 18, 1524-1540. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3363.1)
-
(2005)
J. Clim
, vol.18
, pp. 1524-1540
-
-
Tebaldi, C.1
Smith, R.L.2
Nychka, D.3
Mearns, L.O.4
-
26
-
-
33644766602
-
Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale
-
doi:10.1175/JCLI3851.1
-
Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W. & Stott, P. A. 2006 Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale. J. Clim. 19, 4294-4307. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3851.1)
-
(2006)
J. Clim
, vol.19
, pp. 4294-4307
-
-
Zhang, X.1
Zwiers, F.W.2
Stott, P.A.3
-
27
-
-
0141788231
-
Toward regional scale climate change detection
-
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003) 016<0793:TRSCCD>2.0.CO;2
-
Zwiers, F. W. & Zhang, X. 2003 Toward regional scale climate change detection. J. Clim. 16, 793-797. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003) 016<0793:TRSCCD>2.0.CO;2)
-
(2003)
J. Clim
, vol.16
, pp. 793-797
-
-
Zwiers, F.W.1
Zhang, X.2
|