Insulating Russia from a colour revolution: How the Kremlin resists regional democratic trends

Democratization

Volumn 14, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 232-252

  Ambrosio, Thomas ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

Authoritarianism; Colour revolutions; Democratization; Diffusion; Russia

Indexed keywords

AUTHORITARIANISM; DEMOCRATIZATION; FOREIGN POLICY; NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION; POST-COMMUNISM;

EURASIA; RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 34247573378     PISSN: 13510347     EISSN: 1743890X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13510340701245736     Document Type: Article

References (100)

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5. Daniel Brinks and Michael Coppedge, 'Diffusion is No Illusion: Neighbor Emulation in the Third Wave of Democracy', Comparative Political Studies, Vol.39, No.4 (2006), p.464.
6. Ibid.
7. Harvey Starr, 'Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.35, No.2 (1991), pp.356-81
8. John O'Loughlin et al., 'The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946-1994', Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol.88, No.4 (1998), pp.545-74
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11. One notable exception is Ahlin (note 6).
12. Lynch (note 2), pp.341-2.
13. Thomas Carothers, 'The Backlash Against Democracy Promotion', Foreign Affairs, Vol.85 (March/April, 2006), pp.55-68
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16. See Lynch's (note 2) analysis of Whitehead and others, pp.341-4.
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21. Vladimirov (note 1).
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24. Herd (note 13), p.9
25. Although Yugoslavia is obviously outside of the former Soviet Union, the overthrow of President Slobodan Milosíevic' was seen as the beginning of a confluence between Western interests, foreign NGOs, and anti-authoritarian revolutions. Carothers (note 9). Wilson makes a convincing case that this was a 'phantom danger', but this perception was widespread nonetheless.
26. See Andrew Wilson, 'Ukraine's Orange Revolution, NGOs and the Role of the West', Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol.19, No.1 (2006), pp.21-32.
27. The case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky - An oligarch who ran afoul of the Kremlin seemingly by funding an opposition movement against Putin - is considered to be a case in point, given his later incarceration under dubious circumstances. Even if the Russian government's claims against Khodorkovsky are true, his imprisonment was widely seen as a warning to others like him who might challenge the Putin regime. Andrei Antonov, 'Il Duce's Formula', Novoye Vremya, 4 December 2005, 11, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 12 December 2005.
28. Sharon LaFraniere, 'Anti-Western Sentiment Grows in Russia', Washington Post, 19 January 2003, p.24.
29. Also see Sergei Stokan and Leonid Gankin, 'Russia Expels US Volunteers', Kommersant, 14 August 2002, p.5, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 16 August 2002.
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31. RTR Russia TV (Moscow), 26 May 2004, reproduced as 'Full Text of Putin's State of the Nation Address to Russian Parliament', BBC Monitoring International Reports [BBCMIR], 26 May 2004.
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35. Suzanna Farizova, 'They're Destroying Our Citizens from Within', Kommersant-Vlast, 28 November 2005, p.40, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 5 December 2005.
36. Natalia Kostenko, 'FSB Disclosed US Agents', Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 2 December 2005, p.2, reproduced in Defense and Security, 5 December 2005.
37. Marina Lapenkova, 'Putin "Pretending" to Heed Western Concerns on NGO Bill: Analysts', Agence France Presse, 7 December 2005
38. Nabi Abdullaev, 'NGOs Say Amendments Won't Help', Moscow Times, 21 December 2005.
39. The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, 'Analysis of Law # 18-FZ: On Introducing Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation', 17 February 2006, available online at: http://www.icnl.org/knowledge/news/2006/ 01-19_Russia_NGO_Law_Analysis.pdf, accessed 14 July 2006.
40. Suzanna Farizova, 'They're Destroying Our Citizens from Within', Kommersant-Vlast, 28 November 2005, p.40, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 5 December 2005.
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42. C.J.Chivers, 'Kremlin Puts ForeignPrivate Organizations onNotice', NewYorkTimes, 20October 2006, p.A8.
43. 'Prosecutors: 2 Foreign NGOs Banned', Moscow Times, 18 January 2006
44. Anatoly Medestky, 'Rights Group Faces Closure', Moscow Times, 30 January 2006.
45. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who took a strong position of the NGO law and its implementation, credited international pressure for a partial reversal by the Kremlin. 'Media Roundtable with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Travel Pool', Federal News Service, 30 November 2006.
46. Also see Stephen Castle, 'EU Prepares for Showdown with Putin After Civil Liberties Restricted', The Independent, 19 October 2006, p.26.
47. As identified by Vladimir Vassileyev, the chairman of the Duma Committee on National Security in Kester Kenn Klomegah, 'Govt Accuses NGOs of Fronting Spies, Money-Launderers', IPS-Inter Press Service, 16 January 2006.
48. 'Putin, Hu Jintao to Say Monopoly in Int'l Affairs Inadmissible', TASS, 28 June 2005.
49. Vladimir Radyuhin, 'Shifting Balance in Central Asia, The Hindu, 20 July 2005.
50. Vladimir Isachenkov, 'Russia Lashes Back at US Criticism of its Democracy Record', Associated Press, 20 March 2006.
51. It is perhaps telling that he used the term 'coups' to refer to popular uprisings against autocratic regimes which had rigged elections. 'Interview by Chief of the President's Staff Vladislav Surkov to Der Spiegel', Official Kremlin International News Broadcast, 21 June 2005.
52. 'Kremlin Aide on Threats to Russian Sovereignty', RIA Novosti, 3 March 2006.
53. Given the birth of the Russian identity through Kyivan Rus', the Ukraine is often seen as the closest national cousin to Russia. However, there is little support in Belarus for the sort of cultural and historical separation from the 'Great Russians' that one sees in regard to the formation of Ukrainian national identity. In fact, it has been argued that Belarus is a 'denationalized' nation which looks more to Russia (and the Soviet Union) for its identity than inward at its own culture and history.
54. Thomas Ambrosio, 'The Political Success of Russia-Belarus Relations: Insulating Minsk from a "Color" Revolution', Demokratizatsiya, Vol.14, No 3 (2006), pp.1-29.
55. Heinz Timmermann, 'The Union of Belarus and Russia in the European Context', in Ann Lewis (ed.), The EU & Belarus: Between Moscow and Brussels (London: Federal Trust for Education and Research, 2002), pp.277-99, at p.292.
56. 'Putin Congratulates Lukashenko on His Re-election: Kremlin', Agence France Presse, 10 September 2001.
57. 'Russian Security Council Secretary Invites Respect for Popular Will Expressed at Referendum in Belarus', RIA Novosti, 1 November 2004.
58. Andrew Jack and Tom Warner, 'Putin Blesses Favoured "Near Abroad" Candidates', Financial Times (London), 20 October 2004, p.3.
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60. Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 21 March 2006, reproduced as 'Pundit on Belarus Election Result Implications for Russia', in BBCMIR, 22 March 2006.
61. Quoted in Sergei Babkin and Sergei Latyshev, 'Russia Takes Negative Attitude to Possible Disorders in Belarus', TASS, 5 February 2006.
62. RIA Novosti, 27 February 2006, reproduced as 'Russia Warns Against Attempts at "Regime Change" in Belarus', in BBCMIR, 27 February 2006.
63. Russian TV Highlights Attacks on Opposition Ahead of Belarus Poll', BBCMIR, 7 March 2006.
64. Pyotr Netreba, 'Putin and Fradkov Endorse Alexander Lukashenko', Kommersant, 9 March 2006, p.2, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 9 March 2006.
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66. Antonina Boiko and Valery Zhukov, 'Lukashenko is Choice of Belarussians - Borodin', TASS, 20 March 2006.
67. Belarusian Television (Minsk), 20 March 2006, reproduced as 'CIS Observers Praise Belarus Poll', in BBCMIR, 20 March 2006
68. 'Russian Foreign Ministry Says Belarusian Elections Clean', RIA Novosti, 20 March 2006
69. Interfax, 20 March 2006, reproduced as 'Putin Greets Belarusian President-Elect', in BBCMIR, 20 March 2006.
70. Kaare Dahl Martinsen, 'The Russian Takeover of Belarus', Comparative Strategy, Vol.21, No.5 (October-December 2002), pp.401-16
71. Ruth Deyermond, 'The State of the Union: Military Success, Economic and Political Failure in the Russia-Belarus Union', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.56, No.8(December 2004), pp.1191-205.
72. Anders Å slund, 'Is the Belarusian Economic Model Viable', in: Lewis (ed.), The EU & Belarus, p.182.
73. Moskovskiy Komsomolets, 3 April 2006, reproduced as 'Russia Said Ready to Withdraw its "Fruitless" Support of Belarus', in BBCMIR, 3 April 2006.
74. 'Putin Praise for "Dictator" Stokes Russia-West Row on Belarus', Agence France Presse, 28 April 2006.
75. Centre TV (Moscow), 11 July 2005, reproduced as 'Belarusian President Vows to Resist Political Change', in BBCMIR, 11 July 2005.
76. One of the few exceptions is Forsythe's article, which originated from the debate over democratic peace theory. David P. Forsythe, 'Democracy, War, and Covert Action', Journal of Peace Research, Vol.29, No.4 (1992), pp.385-95.
77. Lucan A. Way, 'Kuchma's Failed Authoritarianism', Journal of Democracy, Vol.16, No.2 (2005), pp.131-45.
78. Taras Kuzio, 'National Identities and Virtual Foreign Policies among the Eastern Slavs', Nationalities Papers, Vol.31, No.4 (2003), pp.431-52.
79. Taras Kuzio, 'Russian Policy toward Ukraine during Elections', Demokratizatsiya, Vol.13, No. (2005), pp.491-517
80. Nikolai Petrov and Andrei Ryabov, 'Russia's Role in the Orange Revolution', in Anders Åslund and Michael McFaul (eds), Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine's Democratic Breakthrough (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006), pp.145-64
81. Andrew Wilson, Ukraine's Orange Revolution (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005).
82. See a summary of comments from the Russian press in 'BBC Monitoring Quotes from Russian Press', BBCMIR, 1 December 2004.
83. 'Igor Ivanov: Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine Revolutions Have Nothing in Common with Democracy', RIA Novosti, 4 May 2005.
84. Ivan Novikov, 'Duma Concerned about Political Persecutions in Ukraine', TASS, 20 May 2005.
85. Available online at: http://assembly.coe.int/main.asp?Link/documents/ workingdocs/doc05/edoc10574.htm, accessed 17 July 2006.
86. UNIAN News Agency, 2 July 2005, reproduced as 'Ukrainian Opposition, Russian Pro-Presidential Parties Sign Cooperation Accord', in BBCMIR, 2 July 2005.
87. Anfisa Voronina, 'Russia to Help Yanukovich', Vedomosti, 5 July 2005, p.A2, reproduced in Russian Press Digest, 5 July 2005.
88. Anatoly Gordeyev, 'Yanukovich Says CES Can Solve Ukraine's Problems', TASS, 6 February 2006.
89. Freedom House currently rates Ukraine 'free' and the other four 'not free'.
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93. It should be noted that significantly higher natural gas prices for Belarus were announced in March 2006. However, this increase was believed to be in response to Lukashenka's foot-dragging on the Russia-Belarus union state. Since Russians only pay approximately $30 per 1000 cubic meters, if Belarus and Russia were to reintegrate, Belarusians would presumably enjoy the heavily subsidized rate paid by Russians.
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98. Werner (note 12), pp.347-8.
99. Geoffrey Pridham, 'Uneasy Democratizations - Pariah Regimes, Political Conditionality and Reborn Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe', Democratization, Vol.8, No. 4 (2001), pp.65-94.
100. Natalia Melikova, 'A Few Words on Freedom of Speech and Khodorkovsky', Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 13 July 2006, p.3, reproduced in What the Papers Say, 13 July 2006.