-
1
-
-
0034200709
-
The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges
-
Ariely, D., Au, W. T., Bender, R. H., Budescu, D. V., Dietz, C. B., Gu, H., Wallsten, T. S., & Zauberman, G. (2000). The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 130-147.
-
(2000)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
, vol.6
, pp. 130-147
-
-
Ariely, D.1
Au, W.T.2
Bender, R.H.3
Budescu, D.V.4
Dietz, C.B.5
Gu, H.6
Wallsten, T.S.7
Zauberman, G.8
-
4
-
-
0022190340
-
Aggregating subjective forecasts: Some empirical results
-
Ashton, A. H., & Ashton, R. H. (1985). Aggregating subjective forecasts: Some empirical results. Management Science, 31, 1499-1508.
-
(1985)
Management Science
, vol.31
, pp. 1499-1508
-
-
Ashton, A.H.1
Ashton, R.H.2
-
5
-
-
0141768106
-
Dominance analysis: A method for comparing predictors in multiple regression
-
Azen, R., & Budescu, D. V. (2003). Dominance analysis: A method for comparing predictors in multiple regression. Psychological Methods, 8, 129-148.
-
(2003)
Psychological Methods
, vol.8
, pp. 129-148
-
-
Azen, R.1
Budescu, D.V.2
-
6
-
-
12044256695
-
Dominance analysis: A new approach to the problem of relative importance of predictors in multiple regression
-
Budescu, D. V. (1993). Dominance analysis: A new approach to the problem of relative importance of predictors in multiple regression. Psychological Bulletin, 114, 542-551.
-
(1993)
Psychological Bulletin
, vol.114
, pp. 542-551
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
-
7
-
-
84926118331
-
Confidence in aggregation of opinions from multiple sources
-
K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin Eds, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
-
Budescu, D. V. (2006). Confidence in aggregation of opinions from multiple sources. In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin (Eds.), Information sampling and adaptive cognition (pp. 327-354). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
-
(2006)
Information sampling and adaptive cognition
, pp. 327-354
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
-
8
-
-
21744441843
-
On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment, Part I: New theoretical developments
-
Budescu, D. V., Erev, I., & Wallsten, T. S. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment, Part I: New theoretical developments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 157-172.
-
(1997)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.10
, pp. 157-172
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Erev, I.2
Wallsten, T.S.3
-
9
-
-
0034198618
-
Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions
-
Budescu, D. V., & Rantilla, A. K. (2000). Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions. Acta Psychologica, 104, 371-398.
-
(2000)
Acta Psychologica
, vol.104
, pp. 371-398
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Rantilla, A.K.2
-
10
-
-
0038395924
-
The effects of symmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions
-
Budescu, D. V., Rantilla, A. K., Yu, H. -T., & Karelitz, T. M. (2003). The effects of symmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 90, 178-194.
-
(2003)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.90
, pp. 178-194
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Rantilla, A.K.2
Yu, H.-T.3
Karelitz, T.M.4
-
11
-
-
85017639816
-
-
Budescu, D. V., & Yu, H.-Y. (in press). To Bayes or not to Bayes: A comparison of models of information aggregation. Paper presented at the 46th annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Toronto, CA. Decision Analysis, In press.
-
Budescu, D. V., & Yu, H.-Y. (in press). To Bayes or not to Bayes: A comparison of models of information aggregation. Paper presented at the 46th annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society, Toronto, CA. Decision Analysis, In press.
-
-
-
-
12
-
-
0022023946
-
Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources
-
Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1985). Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources. Operations Research, 33, 427-442.
-
(1985)
Operations Research
, vol.33
, pp. 427-442
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
13
-
-
45249128876
-
Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
-
Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559-583.
-
(1989)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.5
, pp. 559-583
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
-
14
-
-
0004247888
-
Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Some methods for improving forecast quality
-
Clemen, R. T., & Murphy, A. H. (1986). Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts: Some methods for improving forecast quality. Weather and Forecasting, 1, 213-218.
-
(1986)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.1
, pp. 213-218
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
Murphy, A.H.2
-
15
-
-
0002131130
-
Calibrating and combining precipitation probability forecasts
-
R. Viertl Ed, New York, NY: Plenum Press
-
Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1987). Calibrating and combining precipitation probability forecasts. In R. Viertl (Ed.), Probability and Bayesian statistics. New York, NY: Plenum Press.
-
(1987)
Probability and Bayesian statistics
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
16
-
-
58149407822
-
Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity
-
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85, 395-416.
-
(1978)
Psychological Review
, vol.85
, pp. 395-416
-
-
Einhorn, H.J.1
Hogarth, R.M.2
-
17
-
-
12044259660
-
-
Erev, 1., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519-527.
-
Erev, 1., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519-527.
-
-
-
-
18
-
-
85017628952
-
-
Ferrell, W. R. (1985). Combining individual judgments. InG . Wright (Ed.),ehavioral decision making (pp. 111-145). New York: Plenum Publishing Corporation.
-
Ferrell, W. R. (1985). Combining individual judgments. InG . Wright (Ed.),ehavioral decision making (pp. 111-145). New York: Plenum Publishing Corporation.
-
-
-
-
19
-
-
23844479532
-
When do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The development of confidence in performance and performance in decision-making
-
Fischer, I., & Budescu, D. V. (2005). When do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The development of confidence in performance and performance in decision-making. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 98, 39-53.
-
(2005)
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
, vol.98
, pp. 39-53
-
-
Fischer, I.1
Budescu, D.V.2
-
20
-
-
0009028552
-
Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?
-
Fischer, I., & Harvey, N. (1999). Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 227-246.
-
(1999)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.15
, pp. 227-246
-
-
Fischer, I.1
Harvey, N.2
-
21
-
-
0038266605
-
When oracles failA comparison of four procedures for aggregating subjective probability forecasts
-
Fischer, G. W. (1981). When oracles failA comparison of four procedures for aggregating subjective probability forecasts. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 28, 96-110.
-
(1981)
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
, vol.28
, pp. 96-110
-
-
Fischer, G.W.1
-
22
-
-
51249179464
-
A framework for the combination of forecasts
-
Flores, B. E., & White, E. M. (1988). A framework for the combination of forecasts. Academy of Marketing Science, 16, 95-103.
-
(1988)
Academy of Marketing Science
, vol.16
, pp. 95-103
-
-
Flores, B.E.1
White, E.M.2
-
23
-
-
0026234897
-
Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
-
Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbölting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506-528.
-
(1991)
Psychological Review
, vol.98
, pp. 506-528
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Hoffrage, U.2
Kleinbölting, H.3
-
24
-
-
44049114641
-
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
-
Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411-4435.
-
(1992)
Cognitive Psychology
, vol.24
, pp. 411-4435
-
-
Griffin, D.1
Tversky, A.2
-
25
-
-
0038347632
-
Using advice and assessing its quality
-
Harvey, N., Harries, C., & Fischer, I. (2000). Using advice and assessing its quality. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Performance, 81, 252-273.
-
(2000)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Performance
, vol.81
, pp. 252-273
-
-
Harvey, N.1
Harries, C.2
Fischer, I.3
-
27
-
-
0011548435
-
On combining diagnostic 'forecasts': Thoughts and some evidence
-
Hogarth, R. M. (1989). On combining diagnostic 'forecasts': Thoughts and some evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 593-597.
-
(1989)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.5
, pp. 593-597
-
-
Hogarth, R.M.1
-
28
-
-
23044525728
-
Averaging probability judgments: Monte Carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic value
-
Johnson, T. R., Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (2001). Averaging probability judgments: Monte Carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic value. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14, 123-140.
-
(2001)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.14
, pp. 123-140
-
-
Johnson, T.R.1
Budescu, D.V.2
Wallsten, T.S.3
-
29
-
-
0028412036
-
Mental models and probabilistic thinking
-
Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1994). Mental models and probabilistic thinking. Cognition, 50, 189-209.
-
(1994)
Cognition
, vol.50
, pp. 189-209
-
-
Johnson-Laird, P.N.1
-
30
-
-
21744433135
-
Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment
-
Juslin, P., Olsson, H., & Bjorkman, M. (1997). Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 189-210.
-
(1997)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.10
, pp. 189-210
-
-
Juslin, P.1
Olsson, H.2
Bjorkman, M.3
-
31
-
-
58149417364
-
On the psychology of prediction
-
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
-
(1973)
Psychological Review
, vol.80
, pp. 237-251
-
-
Kahneman, D.1
Tversky, A.2
-
32
-
-
33645919976
-
Thirst for confirmation in multi-attribute choice: Does search for consistency impair decision performance?
-
Karelaia, N. (2006). Thirst for confirmation in multi-attribute choice: Does search for consistency impair decision performance? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Performance, 100, 128-143.
-
(2006)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Performance
, vol.100
, pp. 128-143
-
-
Karelaia, N.1
-
33
-
-
0035375464
-
Why is p = 0.90 better than p = 0.70? Preferences for definitve predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments
-
Keren, G., & Teigen, K. H. (2001). Why is p = 0.90 better than p = 0.70? Preferences for definitve predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 21, 191-202.
-
(2001)
Psychonomic Bulletin and Review
, vol.21
, pp. 191-202
-
-
Keren, G.1
Teigen, K.H.2
-
34
-
-
23744508345
-
Confidence and uncertainty in judgmental forecasting: Differential effects of scenario presentation
-
Kuhn, K. M., & Sniezek, J. A. (1996). Confidence and uncertainty in judgmental forecasting: Differential effects of scenario presentation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 231-247.
-
(1996)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.9
, pp. 231-247
-
-
Kuhn, K.M.1
Sniezek, J.A.2
-
35
-
-
33644530360
-
Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle
-
Larrick, R. P., & Soil, J. B. (2006). Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle. Management Science, 52, 111-127.
-
(2006)
Management Science
, vol.52
, pp. 111-127
-
-
Larrick, R.P.1
Soil, J.B.2
-
36
-
-
0030167143
-
An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination
-
Maines, L. (1996). An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 223-233.
-
(1996)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.12
, pp. 223-233
-
-
Maines, L.1
-
37
-
-
18144402618
-
Detecting regime shifts: The causes of under- and over-reactions
-
Massey, C., & Wu, G. (2005). Detecting regime shifts: The causes of under- and over-reactions. Management Science, 51, 932-947.
-
(2005)
Management Science
, vol.51
, pp. 932-947
-
-
Massey, C.1
Wu, G.2
-
39
-
-
84972540017
-
Comment on Genest and Zideck's "Combining probability distributions: A critique and annotated bibliography
-
Morris, P. A. (1986). Comment on Genest and Zideck's "Combining probability distributions: A critique and annotated bibliography". Statistical Science, 1, 141-144.
-
(1986)
Statistical Science, 1
, pp. 141-144
-
-
Morris, P.A.1
-
41
-
-
1642436823
-
Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: Evidence for a confidence heuristic
-
Price, P. C., & Stone, E. R. (2004). Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: Evidence for a confidence heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17, 39-57.
-
(2004)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.17
, pp. 39-57
-
-
Price, P.C.1
Stone, E.R.2
-
42
-
-
0035734901
-
Information sampling and confidence within groups and judge advisor systems
-
Salvadori, L., Van Swol, L. M., & Sniezek, J. A. (2001). Information sampling and confidence within groups and judge advisor systems. Communication Research, 28, 737-771.
-
(2001)
Communication Research
, vol.28
, pp. 737-771
-
-
Salvadori, L.1
Van Swol, L.M.2
Sniezek, J.A.3
-
43
-
-
0003368305
-
From Shakespeare to Simon. Speculation-and some evidence-about man's ability to process information
-
Slovic, P. (1972). From Shakespeare to Simon. Speculation-and some evidence-about man's ability to process information. Oregon Research Institute Bulletin, 12(3).
-
(1972)
Oregon Research Institute Bulletin
, vol.12
, Issue.3
-
-
Slovic, P.1
-
44
-
-
0037528122
-
What does it mean when experts disagree?
-
E. Salas, & G. Klein Eds, Mahwa, NJ: Erlbaum
-
Shanteau, J. (2001). What does it mean when experts disagree? In E. Salas , & G. Klein (Eds.), Linking expertise and naturalistic decision making. Mahwa, NJ: Erlbaum.
-
(2001)
Linking expertise and naturalistic decision making
-
-
Shanteau, J.1
-
45
-
-
44049117927
-
Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making
-
Sniezek, J. A. (1992). Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 124-155.
-
(1992)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.52
, pp. 124-155
-
-
Sniezek, J.A.1
-
49
-
-
45149139835
-
Revision, weighting, and commitment in consensus group judgment
-
Sniezek, J. A., & Henry, R. A. (1990). Revision, weighting, and commitment in consensus group judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 45, 66-84.
-
(1990)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.45
, pp. 66-84
-
-
Sniezek, J.A.1
Henry, R.A.2
-
50
-
-
0033092161
-
Intuitive theories of information: Beliefs about the value of redundancy
-
Soll, J. B. (1999). Intuitive theories of information: Beliefs about the value of redundancy. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 311-346.
-
(1999)
Cognitive Psychology
, vol.38
, pp. 311-346
-
-
Soll, J.B.1
-
51
-
-
85017609123
-
-
Soil, J. B., & Larrick, R. (2000). The 80/20 rule and the revision of judgment in light another's opinion: Why do we believe ourseleves so much? Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM), Los Angeles, CA.
-
Soil, J. B., & Larrick, R. (2000). The 80/20 rule and the revision of judgment in light another's opinion: Why do we believe ourseleves so much? Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM), Los Angeles, CA.
-
-
-
-
54
-
-
85017620586
-
-
Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., & Tsao, C. (1997). Combining linguistic probabilities. In R. W. Scholz, & A. C. Zimmer (Eds.), Qualitative aspects of decision making (pp. 27-55). Lengerich: Pabst Science Publishers.
-
Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., & Tsao, C. (1997). Combining linguistic probabilities. In R. W. Scholz, & A. C. Zimmer (Eds.), Qualitative aspects of decision making (pp. 27-55). Lengerich: Pabst Science Publishers.
-
-
-
-
55
-
-
0037929244
-
Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates
-
Wallsten, T. S., & Diederich, A. (2001). Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates. Mathematical Social Sciences, 18, 1-18.
-
(2001)
Mathematical Social Sciences
, vol.18
, pp. 1-18
-
-
Wallsten, T.S.1
Diederich, A.2
-
57
-
-
0027886230
-
Evaluating and combining physician's probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit
-
Winkler, R. L., & Poses, R. M. (1993). Evaluating and combining physician's probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit. Management Science, 39, 1526-1543.
-
(1993)
Management Science
, vol.39
, pp. 1526-1543
-
-
Winkler, R.L.1
Poses, R.M.2
-
58
-
-
0037591392
-
Advice taking in decision-making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation
-
Yaniv, I., & Kleinberger, E. (2000). Advice taking in decision-making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 260-281.
-
(2000)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.83
, pp. 260-281
-
-
Yaniv, I.1
Kleinberger, E.2
-
59
-
-
0001107693
-
External correspondence: Decomposition of the mean probability score
-
Yates, J. F. (1982). External correspondence: Decomposition of the mean probability score. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30, 132-156.
-
(1982)
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
, vol.30
, pp. 132-156
-
-
Yates, J.F.1
-
60
-
-
0001796634
-
Cross-cultural variations in probability judgment accuracy: Beyond general knowledge overconfidence?
-
Yates, J. F., Lee, J., Shinotsuka, H., Palatano, A. L., & Sieck, W. R. (1998). Cross-cultural variations in probability judgment accuracy: Beyond general knowledge overconfidence? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74, 89-117.
-
(1998)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.74
, pp. 89-117
-
-
Yates, J.F.1
Lee, J.2
Shinotsuka, H.3
Palatano, A.L.4
Sieck, W.R.5
-
61
-
-
0030102876
-
Good probabilistic forecasters: The "consumer's" perspective
-
Yates, J. F., Price, P. C., Lee, J., & Ramirez, J. (1996). Good probabilistic forecasters: The "consumer's" perspective. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 41-56.
-
(1996)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.12
, pp. 41-56
-
-
Yates, J.F.1
Price, P.C.2
Lee, J.3
Ramirez, J.4
|