-
2
-
-
0034200709
-
The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges
-
Ariely, D., Au, W. T., Bender, R. H., Budescu, D. V., Dietz, C. B., Gu, H., Wallsten, T. S., & Zauberman, G. (2000). The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 130–147.
-
(2000)
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
, vol.6
, pp. 130-147
-
-
Ariely, D.1
Au, W.T.2
Bender, R.H.3
Budescu, D.V.4
Dietz, C.B.5
Gu, H.6
Wallsten, T.S.7
Zauberman, G.8
-
7
-
-
0020192214
-
A multiplicative formula for aggregating probability assessments
-
Bordley, R. F. (1982). A multiplicative formula for aggregating probability assessments. Management Science, 28, 1137–1148.
-
(1982)
Management Science
, vol.28
, pp. 1137-1148
-
-
Bordley, R.F.1
-
8
-
-
85081860531
-
-
Presidential address at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM), Orlando, FL
-
Budescu, D. V. (2001). Aggregation of probabilistic forecasts and opinions. Presidential address at the annual meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM), Orlando, FL.
-
(2001)
Aggregation of Probabilistic Forecasts and Opinions
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
-
9
-
-
21744441843
-
On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment, part i: New theoretical developments
-
Budescu, D. V., Erev, I., & Wallsten, T. S. (1997). On the importance of random error in the study of probability judgment, Part I: New theoretical developments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 157–172.
-
(1997)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.10
, pp. 157-172
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Erev, I.2
Wallsten, T.S.3
-
10
-
-
0034198618
-
Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions
-
Budescu, D. V., & Rantilla, A. K. (2000) Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions. Acta Psychologica, 104, 371–398.
-
(2000)
Acta Psychologica
, vol.104
, pp. 371-398
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Rantilla, A.K.2
-
11
-
-
0038395924
-
The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions
-
Budescu, D. V., Rantilla, A. K, Yu, H., & Karelitz, T. M. (2003). The effects of asymmetry among advisors on the aggregation of their opinions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 90, 178–194.
-
(2003)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.90
, pp. 178-194
-
-
Budescu, D.V.1
Rantilla, A.K.2
Yu, H.3
Karelitz, T.M.4
-
12
-
-
0014096161
-
Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations
-
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1967). Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 72, 193–204.
-
(1967)
Journal of Abnormal Psychology
, vol.72
, pp. 193-204
-
-
Chapman, L.J.1
Chapman, J.P.2
-
13
-
-
0014527651
-
Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs
-
Chapman, L. J., & Chapman, J. P. (1969). Illusory correlation as an obstacle to the use of valid psychodiagnostic signs. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 74, 271–280.
-
(1969)
Journal of Abnormal Psychology
, vol.74
, pp. 271-280
-
-
Chapman, L.J.1
Chapman, J.P.2
-
14
-
-
45249128876
-
Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
-
Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 559–583.
-
(1989)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.5
, pp. 559-583
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
-
15
-
-
0027583016
-
Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach
-
Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1993). Aggregating point estimates: A flexible modeling approach. Management Science, 39, 501–515.
-
(1993)
Management Science
, vol.39
, pp. 501-515
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
16
-
-
0022023946
-
Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources
-
Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1985). Limits for the precision and value of information from dependent sources. Operation Research, 33, 427–442.
-
(1985)
Operation Research
, vol.33
, pp. 427-442
-
-
Clemen, R.T.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
18
-
-
0002796707
-
Group decision and social interaction: A theory of social decision schemes
-
Davis, J. H. (1973). Group decision and social interaction: A theory of social decision schemes. Psychological Review, 80, 97–125.
-
(1973)
Psychological Review
, vol.80
, pp. 97-125
-
-
Davis, J.H.1
-
19
-
-
0001853841
-
Group decision making and quantitative judgments: A consensus model
-
E. H. Witte & J. H. Davis (Eds.), Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum
-
Davis, J. H. (1996). Group decision making and quantitative judgments: A consensus model. In E. H. Witte & J. H. Davis (Eds.), Understanding group behavior (Vol 1): Small group processes and interpersonal relations. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
-
(1996)
Understanding Group Behavior (Vol 1): Small Group Processes and Interpersonal Relations
-
-
Davis, J.H.1
-
20
-
-
58149407822
-
Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity
-
Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1978). Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review, 85, 395–416.
-
(1978)
Psychological Review
, vol.85
, pp. 395-416
-
-
Einhorn, H.J.1
Hogarth, R.M.2
-
21
-
-
12044259660
-
Simultaneous over- and under-confidence: The role of error in judgment processes
-
Erev, I., Wallsten, T. S., & Budescu, D. V. (1994). Simultaneous over- and under-confidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review, 101, 519–527.
-
(1994)
Psychological Review
, vol.101
, pp. 519-527
-
-
Erev, I.1
Wallsten, T.S.2
Budescu, D.V.3
-
22
-
-
0000238561
-
Combining individual judgments
-
G. Wright (Ed.), New York: Plenum
-
Ferrel, W. R. (1985). Combining individual judgments. In G. Wright (Ed.), Behavioral decision making(pp. 111–145). New York: Plenum.
-
(1985)
Behavioral Decision Making
, pp. 111-145
-
-
Ferrel, W.R.1
-
23
-
-
1542682082
-
Explaining and simulating judgment biases as an aggregation phenomenon in probabilistic multiple-cue environments
-
Fiedler, K. (1996). Explaining and simulating judgment biases as an aggregation phenomenon in probabilistic multiple-cue environments. Psychological Review, 103, 193–214.
-
(1996)
Psychological Review
, vol.103
, pp. 193-214
-
-
Fiedler, K.1
-
24
-
-
0009028552
-
Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?
-
Fischer, I., & Harvey, N. (1999). Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 227–246.
-
(1999)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.15
, pp. 227-246
-
-
Fischer, I.1
Harvey, N.2
-
25
-
-
51249179464
-
A framework for the combination of forecasts
-
Flores, B. E., & White, E. M. (1988). A framework for the combination of forecasts. Academy of Marketing Science, 16, 95–103.
-
(1988)
Academy of Marketing Science
, vol.16
, pp. 95-103
-
-
Flores, B.E.1
White, E.M.2
-
26
-
-
0002828478
-
Betting on one good reason: The take the best heuristic
-
G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group (Eds.), New York: Oxford University Press
-
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1999). Betting on one good reason: The take the best heuristic. In G. Gigerenzer, P. M. Todd, & the ABC Research Group (Eds.), Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 75–96). New York: Oxford University Press.
-
(1999)
Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart
, pp. 75-96
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Goldstein, D.G.2
-
27
-
-
0026234897
-
Probabilistic mental models: A brunswikian theory of confidence
-
Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U., & Kleinbolting, H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review, 98, 506–528.
-
(1991)
Psychological Review
, vol.98
, pp. 506-528
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Hoffrage, U.2
Kleinbolting, H.3
-
28
-
-
84889377811
-
Effects of judges’ forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes
-
press
-
Harvey, N., & Harries, C. (2003). Effects of judges’ forecasting on their later combination of forecasts for the same outcomes. International Journal of Forecasting, in press.
-
(2003)
International Journal of Forecasting
-
-
Harvey, N.1
Harries, C.2
-
30
-
-
0003339749
-
Methods for aggregating opinions
-
H. Jungermann & G. de Zeeuw (Eds.), Boston: Riedel
-
Hogarth, R. M. (1977). Methods for aggregating opinions. In H. Jungermann & G. de Zeeuw (Eds.), Decision making and change in human affairs (pp. 231–255). Boston: Riedel.
-
(1977)
Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs
, pp. 231-255
-
-
Hogarth, R.M.1
-
32
-
-
23044525728
-
Averaging probability judgments: Monte carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic value
-
Johnson, T. R., Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (2001). Averaging probability judgments: Monte Carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic value. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14, 123–140.
-
(2001)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.14
, pp. 123-140
-
-
Johnson, T.R.1
Budescu, D.V.2
Wallsten, T.S.3
-
33
-
-
21744433135
-
Brunswikian and thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment
-
Juslin, P., Olsson, H., & Bjorkman, M. (1997). Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10,189–210.
-
(1997)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.10
, pp. 189-210
-
-
Juslin, P.1
Olsson, H.2
Bjorkman, M.3
-
34
-
-
58149417364
-
On the psychology of prediction
-
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237–251.
-
(1973)
Psychological Review
, vol.80
, pp. 237-251
-
-
Kahneman, D.1
Tversky, A.2
-
35
-
-
23744508345
-
Confidence and uncertainty in judgmental forecasting: Differential effects of scenario presentation
-
Kuhn, K. M., & Sniezek, J. A. (1996). Confidence and uncertainty in judgmental forecasting: Differential effects of scenario presentation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 231–247.
-
(1996)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.9
, pp. 231-247
-
-
Kuhn, K.M.1
Sniezek, J.A.2
-
37
-
-
0000476314
-
Demonstrability and social combination processes on mathematical intellective tasks
-
Laughlin, P. R., & Ellis, A. L. (1986). Demonstrability and social combination processes on mathematical intellective tasks, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 177–189.
-
(1986)
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
, vol.22
, pp. 177-189
-
-
Laughlin, P.R.1
Ellis, A.L.2
-
38
-
-
0030167143
-
An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination
-
Maines, L. (1996). An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 223–233.
-
(1996)
International Journal of Forecasting
, vol.12
, pp. 223-233
-
-
Maines, L.1
-
40
-
-
0020542186
-
An axiomatic approach to expert resolution
-
Morris, P. A. (1983). An axiomatic approach to expert resolution. Management Science, 29, 24–32.
-
(1983)
Management Science
, vol.29
, pp. 24-32
-
-
Morris, P.A.1
-
41
-
-
84972540017
-
Comment on genest and zideck’s –combining probability distributions: A critique and annotated bibliography.—
-
Morris, P. A. (1986). Comment on Genest and Zideck’s –Combining probability distributions: A critique and annotated bibliography.— Statistical Science, 1,141–144.
-
(1986)
Statistical Science
, vol.1
, pp. 141-144
-
-
Morris, P.A.1
-
43
-
-
1642436823
-
Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: Evidence for a confidence heuristic
-
Price, P. C., & Stone, E. R. (2004). Intuitive evaluation of likelihood judgment producers: Evidence for a confidence heuristic. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17, 39–57.
-
(2004)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.17
, pp. 39-57
-
-
Price, P.C.1
Stone, E.R.2
-
45
-
-
0035734901
-
Information sampling and confidence within groups and judge advisor systems
-
Salvadori, L., van Swol, L. M., & Sniezek, J. A. (2001). Information sampling and confidence within groups and judge advisor systems. Communication Research, 28, 737–771.
-
(2001)
Communication Research
, vol.28
, pp. 737-771
-
-
Salvadori, L.1
Van Swol, L.M.2
Sniezek, J.A.3
-
47
-
-
44049117927
-
Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making
-
Sniezek, J. A. (1992). Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52, 124–155.
-
(1992)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.52
, pp. 124-155
-
-
Sniezek, J.A.1
-
49
-
-
0033092161
-
Intuitive theories of information: Beliefs about the value of redundancy
-
Soll, J. B. (1999). Intuitive theories of information: Beliefs about the value of redundancy. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 317–346.
-
(1999)
Cognitive Psychology
, vol.38
, pp. 317-346
-
-
Soll, J.B.1
-
53
-
-
21744461821
-
Evaluating and combining subjective probability estimates
-
Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., Erev, I., & Diederich, A. (1997). Evaluating and combining subjective probability estimates. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 243–268.
-
(1997)
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
, vol.10
, pp. 243-268
-
-
Wallsten, T.S.1
Budescu, D.V.2
Erev, I.3
Diederich, A.4
-
54
-
-
0037929244
-
Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates
-
Wallsten, T. S., & Diederich, A. (2001). Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates. Mathematical Social Sciences, 18, 1–18.
-
(2001)
Mathematical Social Sciences
, vol.18
, pp. 1-18
-
-
Wallsten, T.S.1
Diederich, A.2
-
55
-
-
23744450477
-
Combining forecast: Multiple regression versus a bayesian approach
-
Walz, D. T., & Walz, D. D. (1989). Combining forecast: Multiple regression versus a Bayesian approach. Decision Sciences, 20, 77–89.
-
(1989)
Decision Sciences
, vol.20
, pp. 77-89
-
-
Walz, D.T.1
Walz, D.D.2
-
58
-
-
0027886230
-
Evaluating and combining physician's probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit
-
Winkler, R. L., & Poses, R. M. (1993). Evaluating and combining physician's probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit. Management Science, 39,1526–1543.
-
(1993)
Management Science
, vol.39
, pp. 1526-1543
-
-
Winkler, R.L.1
Poses, R.M.2
-
59
-
-
0002905470
-
Management of information in small groups
-
J. L. Nye & A. M. Brower (Eds.), Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage
-
Wittenbaum, G., & Stasser, G. (1996). Management of information in small groups. In J. L. Nye & A. M. Brower (Eds.), What's social about social cognition? Research on socially shared cognition in small groups. (pp. 3–28). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
-
(1996)
What's Social about Social Cognition? Research on Socially Shared Cognition in Small Groups
, pp. 3-28
-
-
Wittenbaum, G.1
Stasser, G.2
-
60
-
-
0031100292
-
Weighting and trimming: Heuristics for aggregating judgments under uncertainty
-
Yaniv, I. (1997). Weighting and trimming: Heuristics for aggregating judgments under uncertainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69, 237–249.
-
(1997)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.69
, pp. 237-249
-
-
Yaniv, I.1
-
62
-
-
0037591392
-
Advice taking in decision–making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation
-
Yaniv, I., & Kleinberger, E. (2000). Advice taking in decision–making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 260–281.
-
(2000)
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
, vol.83
, pp. 260-281
-
-
Yaniv, I.1
Kleinberger, E.2
|