Application of the NCEP ensemble prediction system to medium-range forecasting in South Africa: New products, benefits, and challenges

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 22, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 18-35

  Tennant, Warren J ^a   Toth, Zoltan ^b   Rae, Kevin J ^a  

^a SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE   (South Africa)

^b CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; WIND;

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM (EES); PROBABILITY FORECASTS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; PROBABILITY; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY;

AFRICA; SOUTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

EID: 33947216596     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF979.1     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523.
2. Bosart, L. F., 2003: Whither the weather analysis and forecasting process? Wea. Forecasting, 18, 520-529.
3. Bourke, W., R. Buizza, and M. Naughton, 2004: Performance of the ECMWT and the BoM ensemble prediction systems in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2338-2357.
4. Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
5. Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
6. Chessa, P. A., and F. Lalaurette, 2001: Verification of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system forecasts: A study of large-scale patterns. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 611-619.
7. Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and S. Beauregard, 2005: Statistical post-processing of operational and CDC hindcast ensembles. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 12B.2.
8. Ebert, E. E., 2001: Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2461-2480.
9. Ebert, E. E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen, and M. E. Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE sssessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 481-492.
10. Eckel, F. A., and C. F. Mass, 2005: Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 328-350.
11. Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld III, and T. Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1098-1118.
12. Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.
13. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
14. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and X. Wei, 2004: Ensemble reforecasting: Improving medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1434-1447.
15. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
16. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2003: On the ROC score of probability forecasts. J. Climate, 16, 4145-4150.
17. Legg, T. P., and K. R. Mylne, 2004: Early warnings of severe weather from ensemble forecast information. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 891-906.
18. Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
19. Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291-303.
20. Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2002: The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWT Ensemble Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 173-191.
21. Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
22. Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2473-2489.
23. Roebber, P. J., D. M. Schultz, B. A. Colle, and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Toward improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling systems in operations. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 936-949.
24. Ryan R. T., 2003: Digital forecasts - Communication, public understanding, and decision making. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1001-1003.
25. Scherrer, S. C., C. Appenzeller, P. Eckert, and D. Cattani, 2004: Analysis of the spread-skill relations using the ECMWT Ensemble Prediction System over Europe. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 552-565.
26. Stratton R. A., 1999: A high resolution AMIP integration using the Hadley Centre model HadAM2b. Climate Dyn., 15, 9-28.
27. Szunyogh, I., and Z. Toth, 2002: The effect of increased horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1125-1143.
28. Talagrand, O., R. Vautard, and B. Strauss, 1997: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. Workshop on Predictability, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 1-26.
29. Tennant, W. J., 2003: An assessment of intraseasonal variability from 13-yr GCM simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1975-1991.
30. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
31. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
32. Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, and T. Marchok, 2001: The use of ensembles to identify forecasts with small and large uncertainty. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 436-477.
33. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.