Nuclear proliferation: The case of Saudi Arabia

Middle East Journal

Volumn 60, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 421-443

  Bahgat, Gawdat ^a  

^a INDIANA UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC REFORM; NUCLEAR WEAPON; POLICY MAKING; POLITICAL REFORM; REGIONAL POLITICS; REGIONAL SECURITY; SECURITY THREAT;

AR RIYAD [SAUDI ARABIA]; ASIA; EURASIA; IRAN; IRAQ; ISRAEL; MIDDLE EAST; RIYADH; SAUDI ARABIA; YEMEN;

EID: 33748204514     PISSN: 00263141     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3751/60.3.11     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. The United States Department of Defense Annual Report, Proliferation Threat and Response and Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal, and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals Nuclear Biological, and Chemical Threats, (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005) make no mention of Saudi Arabia.
2. See also Richard L. Russell, "A Saudi Nuclear Option?" Survival, Vol. 43, No. 2, (Summer 2001), p.69
3. Shai Feldman, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in the Middle East, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997) p. 130;
4. Nora Bensahel and Daniel L. Byman, The Future Security Environment in the Middle East: Conflict, Stability, and Political Change, (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2004) p.265.
5. Prince Saud al-Faysal, the Saudi Foreign Minister, speaking before a terrorism conference in London in January 2006, said, " We are urging Iran to accept the position that we have taken to make the Gulf and the entire Middle East nuclear free and free of weapons of mass destruction." Richard Beeston, "Saudis Warn Iran that Its Nuclear Plan Risks Disaster," The Times, www.thetimes.co.uk, (January 16, 2006).
6. For example: Yana Feldman, Country Profile: Saudi Arabia, http:// www.sipri.org/contents/expcon/cnsclsau.html. Accessed June 9, 2006;
7. Michael A. Levi, "Would the Saudis Go Nuclear?" The New Republic, June 2, 2003
8. Roula Khalaf, Farhan Bokhari, and Stephen Fidler, "Saudi Cash Joins Forces with Nuclear Pakistan," Financial Times, August 4, 2004.
9. Ahmed Hashim, "The State, Society, and the Evolution of Warfare in the Middle East: The Rise of Strategic Deterrence?Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 4, (August 1995), pp. 53-76, p. 67.
10. Dany Shoham, "Does Saudi Arabia Have or Seek Chemical or Biological Weapons?" Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 6, No. 3, (Spring-Summer 1999), pp. 122-130, p. 127.
11. For more information on the Treaty and the signatories see the Treaty's website at http://www.ctbto.org.
12. For more information see the Center for Defense Information's website at http://www.cdi.org.
13. Senior officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) consider the Small Quantities Protocol outmoded because it contains loopholes that can potentially encourage would-be proliferators. See Associated Press, "Saudis Pressured on Nuclear Openness:" June 5, 2005, http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/international/ AP-Nuclear-Agency-Saudi-Arabia.html.
14. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Saudi Arabia: Country Profile, November 5, 2005, on line at http://www.sipri.org/contents/ expcon/cnsc2sau.html.Accessed November 10, 2005.
15. Michael A. Levi, "Would the Saudis Go Nuclear?" The New Republic, June 2, 2003.
16. Thomas W. Lippman, "Saudi Arabia: The Calculations of Uncertainty," in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices, (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2004) pp. 111-144, p. 121.
17. Many analysts have examined the demographic structure of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf monarchies and how it restrains their ability to create large and strong militaries, particularly ground forces. See for example: William B. Quandt, Saudi Arabia in the 1980s: Foreign Policy, Security, and Oil, (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 198 1) pp. 40-41;
18. F. Gregory Gause III, Oil Monarchies: Domestic and Security Challenges in the Arab Gulf States, (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1994) pp. 124-125;
19. and Michael Collins Dunn, "Five Years After Desert Storm: Gulf Security, Stability and the U.S. Presence," Middle East Policy, Vol. 4, No. 3, (March 1996), pp. 30-38.
20. Thomas Woodrow, "The Sino-Saudi Connection," China Brief, Vol. 2, No. 21, (October 2002), http://www.jamestown.org. Accessed October 23, 2005.
21. Yitzhak Shichor, East Wind over Arabia: Origins and Implications of the Sino-Saudi Missile Deal, (Berkeley, CA: Institute of East Asian Studies University of California, 1989), p. 30.
22. Ewen Mac Askill and Ian Traynor, "Saudis Consider Nuclear Bomb," Guardian, September 18, 2003.
23. Douglas Jehl, "Bush Cited Two Allies Over Arms, Book Says," The New York Times, October 14, 2005;
24. Philippe Sands, Lawless World: America and the Making and Breaking of Global Rules, (London: Allen Lane, 2005).
25. Richard L. Russell, "A Saudi Nuclear Option?" Survival, Vol. 43, No. 2, (Summer 2001), pp. 69-80, p. 73.
26. Rosemarie Said Zahlan, The Making of the Modern Gulf States: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, The United Arab Emirates, and Oman, (London: Unwin Hyman, 1989), p.121.
27. The text of a Saudi proposed peace plan, as endorsed by the Arab League in March 2002 is available on line at www.al-bab.con/arab/docs/league/ peace02.htm.
28. Hermann Frederick Eilts, "Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy," in L. Carl Brown (ed), Diplomacy in the Middle East, (London: I.B. Thuris, 2001), pp. 219-244, p. 229.
29. Itamar Rabinovich and Jehuda Reinharz, eds, Israel in the Middle East: Documents and Readings on Society, Politics, and Foreign Relations 1948-Present, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1984), p. 222.
30. See the Saudi proposed peace plan, available on line at http:// www.al-bab.com/arab/docs/league/peace02.htm.
31. George Lenczowski, American Presidents and the Middle East, (Durham and London: Duke University Press, 1990).
32. R. K. Ramazani, "Iran's Islamic Revolution and the Persian Gulf," Current History, Vol. 84, No. 498, (January 1985), pp. 2-10, p. 8.
33. Gwenn Okruhlik, "Saudi Arabian-Iranian Relations: External Rapprochement and Internal Consolidation," Middle East Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2, (Summer 2003), pp. 113-125, p. 115.
34. Joseph A. Kechichian, "Trends in Saudi National Security," The Middle East Journal, Vol. 53, No. 2, (Spring 1999), pp. 232-253, p. 235.
35. For a comprehensive study of this conflict, see Hooshang Amirahmadi, Small Islands, Big Politics: The Tunbs and Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf, (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1996).
36. Dan Caldwell, "Flashpoints in the Gulf: Abu Musa and the Tunb Islands," Middle East Policy, Vol. 4, No. 3, (March 1996), pp. 50-58, p. 53.
37. Gawdat Bahgat, "Iranian-Saudi Rapprochement: Prospects and Implications," World Affairs, Vol. 162, No. 3, (Winter 2000), pp. 108-115, p. 113.
38. Richard Beeston, "Saudis Warn Iran That Its Nuclear Plan Risks Disaster," Times, January 18, 2006.
39. Nora Boustany, "Shiite Muslims in Saudi Arabia Emboldened by Hussein's Fall," The Washington Post, April 23, 2003.
40. David Hirst, "Arab Leaders Watch in Fear as Shiite Emancipation Draws Near," Guardian, January 27, 2005,
41. and "Top Shiite Raps Mubarak for Remarks," The New York Times, April 12, 2006.
42. It is important to point out that President Mubarak clarified his remarks a few days later, insisting that he Did not mean to insult Shiite Muslims or doubt their national allegiance. For an analysis of this sectarian shift and potential regional implications see Juan Cole, "A Shiite Crescent? The Regional Impact of the Iraq War," Current History, Vol. 105, No. 687, (January 2006), pp. 20-26
43. and Vali Nasr, "Regional Implications of Shiite Revival in Iraq," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 3, (Summer 2004), pp. 7-24.
44. Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia and the International Oil Market: An Executive Summary of the Special Presentation, (Houston, TX: James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, September 2005), p. 2.
45. James A. Russell, "Saudi Arabia in the 21 st Century: A New Security Dilemma," Middle East Policy, Vol. 12, No. 3, (Fall 2005), pp. 64-78, p. 73.
46. The Sumed pipeline has been in operation since January 1977. It links a terminal on the Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean. It has served as an alternative to the Suez Canal to transport loads from tankers that are too large to pass fully laden through the canal.
47. Steven R. McDowell, Is Saudi Arabia A Nuclear Threat?, Thesis, (Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 2003), p. 38.
48. "The Yemeni-Saudi Border Treaty," The Estimate, June, 30,2000. http://www.theestimate.com/public/063000.html.
49. John B. Allcock, ed, Border and Territorial Disputes, Third Edition, (London: Longman, 1982), p. 398.
50. For an analysis of political reform in Yemen see Sheila Carapico, "Pluralism, Polarization, and Popular Politics in Yemen," pp. 241-266 in Bahgat Korany, Rex Brynen, and Paul Noble, eds, Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World: Theoretical Perspectives, Vol. 2, (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998).
51. John Duke Anthony, "Saudi Arabian-Yemeni Relations: Implications for U.S. Policy," Middle East Policy, Vol. 7, No. 3, (June 2000), pp. 78-96, p. 82.
52. Clifford Chanin and F. Gregory Gause III, "U.S.-Saudi Relations: A Rocky Road," Middle East Policy, Vol. 11, No. 4, (Winter 2004), pp. 26-36, p. 32.
53. President George W. Bush, Address to Joint Session of Congress, available on line at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/ 20010920-8.html. Accessed June 11, 2006
54. Douglas Jehl, "Holy War Lured Saudis as Rulers Looked Away," The New York Times, December 27, 2001,
55. and Dafna Linzer, "No Saudi Arrests Made Over Attacks," The Washington Post, October 25, 2001.
56. Ali Khalil, "Saudi Conference Focuses on Fighting Terrorism," Arab News, February 7, 2005.
57. Robin Wright, "U.S., Saudi Arabia Inaugurate New Strategic Dialogue," The Washington Post, November 13, 2005.
58. David E. Long, "U.S.-Saudi Relations: Evolution, Current Conditions, and Future Prospects," Mediterranean Quarterly, Vol. 15, No. 3, (Summer 2004), pp. 24-37, p. 35.
59. William B. Quandt, Saudi Arabia in the 1980s: Foreign Policy, Security, and Oil, (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1981), p. 143.
60. F. Gregory Gause III, The Approaching Turning Point: The Future of U.S. Relations with the Gulf States, Brookings Project on U.S. Policy Towards the Islamic World, Analysis Paper # 2, May 2003, p.6.
61. World Bank, Saudi Arabia Data Profile, November 2005, on line at http://devdata.worldbank.org. Accessed November 20, 2005.
62. Energy Information Administration, OPEC Revenues: Country Details, June 2005, on line at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/orevcoun.html. Accessed June 23, 2005.
63. Ian Bremmer, "The Saudi Paradox," World Policy Journal, Vol. 21, No. 3, (Fall 2004), pp. 23-30, p. 25.
64. International Monetary Fund, IMF Executive Board Concludes 2005 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia, October 7,2005 on fine at http:// www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2005/pn05161.htm. Accessed May 5, 2006.
65. Will McSheehy, "Saudi Trade Deal Helps Bid to Join WTO," Financial Times, September 12, 2005.
66. For more details see Gwenn Okruhlik, "The Irony of Islah (Reform)," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 4, (Fall 2005), pp. 153-170.
67. 'Abdullah became King in August 2005 when King Fahd passed away.
68. The full text of a petition presented to Crown Prince 'Abdullah on September 24, 2003 was published by The Middle East Economic Survey, "Call for Saudi Reform," Vol. 46, No. 41, October 13, 2003, on line at http://www.mees.com. Accessed October 14, 2003.
69. For an analysis of political reform in Saudi Arabia see Richard Dekmejian, "The Liberal Impulse in Saudi Arabia," The Middle East Journal, Vol. 57, No. 3, (Summer 2003), pp. 400-413.
70. Joseph A. Kechichian, "Testing the Saudi 'Will to Power': Challenges Confronting Prince Abdullah," Middle East Policy, Vol. 10, No. 4, (Winter 2003), pp. 100-113, p. 111.
71. Isa Mubarak, "Saudi Arabia Says It Will Hold First Elections," Reuters, October 14, 2003.
72. J. E. Peterson, "Saudi-American Relations After September 11," Asian Affairs, Vol. 33, No. 1, (February 2002), pp. 102-114, p. 109.
73. Ewen MacAskill and Ian Traynor, "Saudis Consider Nuclear Bomb," Guardian, September 18, 2003.
74. Richard L. Russell, "A Saudi Nuclear Option?" Survival, Vol. 43, No. 2, (Summer 2001), pp. 69-80, p. 71.
75. Thomas W. Lippman, "Saudi Arabia: The Calculations of Uncertainty," in Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds, The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2004, pp. 111-144, p. 126.
76. Anoushiravan Ehteshami, "The Future of Iran's Defense and Nuclear Policy," in Walter Posch, ed, Iranian Challenges, Challot Paper No. 98 (Paris: Institute for Security Studies, European Union, May 2006) pp. 73-85, p. 76.
77. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 2004-2005, (London: Oxford University Press, 2004), p.354.