메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 135, Issue 1-2, 2006, Pages 465-497

Bagging binary and quantile predictors for time series

Author keywords

Asymmetric cost function; Bagging; Binary prediction; BMA; Forecast combination; Majority voting; Quantile prediction; Time series

Indexed keywords

BINARY SEQUENCES; CLASSIFICATION (OF INFORMATION); COSTS; FUNCTION EVALUATION; LEARNING SYSTEMS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; TREES (MATHEMATICS);

EID: 33747886639     PISSN: 03044076     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.07.017     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (50)

References (55)
  • 1
    • 0036335816 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock return predictability and model uncertainty
    • Avramov K. Stock return predictability and model uncertainty. Journal of Financial Economics 64 (2002) 423-458
    • (2002) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.64 , pp. 423-458
    • Avramov, K.1
  • 3
    • 0032645080 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An empirical comparison of voting classification algorithms: bagging, boosting, and variants
    • Bauer E., and Kohavi R. An empirical comparison of voting classification algorithms: bagging, boosting, and variants. Machine Learning 36 (1999) 105-139
    • (1999) Machine Learning , vol.36 , pp. 105-139
    • Bauer, E.1    Kohavi, R.2
  • 4
    • 0030211964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bagging predictors
    • Breiman L. Bagging predictors. Machine Learning 24 (1996) 123-140
    • (1996) Machine Learning , vol.24 , pp. 123-140
    • Breiman, L.1
  • 5
    • 0030344230 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heuristics of instability and stabilization in model selection
    • Breiman L. Heuristics of instability and stabilization in model selection. Annals of Statistics 24 6 (1996) 2350-2383
    • (1996) Annals of Statistics , vol.24 , Issue.6 , pp. 2350-2383
    • Breiman, L.1
  • 7
    • 33646352634 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • University of Pennsylvania and University of Washington, Seattle
    • Buja A., and Stuetzle W. Observations on Bagging (2002), University of Pennsylvania and University of Washington, Seattle
    • (2002) Observations on Bagging
    • Buja, A.1    Stuetzle, W.2
  • 8
    • 0040759670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional value-at-risk: aspects of modeling and estimation
    • Chernozhukov V., and Umantsev L. Conditional value-at-risk: aspects of modeling and estimation. Empirical Economics 26 (2001) 271-292
    • (2001) Empirical Economics , vol.26 , pp. 271-292
    • Chernozhukov, V.1    Umantsev, L.2
  • 10
    • 33747874901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2003a. Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?. UCSD and Caltech.
  • 11
    • 33747882325 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2003b. Estimating Loss Function Parameters. UCSD and Caltech.
  • 12
    • 2342622786 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Leave one out error, stability, and generalization of voting combinations of classifiers
    • Evgeniou T., Pontil M., and Elisseeff A. Leave one out error, stability, and generalization of voting combinations of classifiers. Machine Learning 55 1 (2004) 71-97
    • (2004) Machine Learning , vol.55 , Issue.1 , pp. 71-97
    • Evgeniou, T.1    Pontil, M.2    Elisseeff, A.3
  • 13
    • 0002889251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The moving blocks bootstrap and robust inference for linear least squares and quantile regressions
    • Fitzenberger B. The moving blocks bootstrap and robust inference for linear least squares and quantile regressions. Journal of Econometrics 82 (1997) 235-287
    • (1997) Journal of Econometrics , vol.82 , pp. 235-287
    • Fitzenberger, B.1
  • 15
  • 16
    • 0348242861 scopus 로고
    • Prediction with a generalized cost of error function
    • Granger C.W.J. Prediction with a generalized cost of error function. Operational Research Quarterly 20 (1969) 199-207
    • (1969) Operational Research Quarterly , vol.20 , pp. 199-207
    • Granger, C.W.J.1
  • 18
    • 0142085564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions
    • Granger C.W.J. Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions. Spanish Economic Review 1 (1999) 161-173
    • (1999) Spanish Economic Review , vol.1 , pp. 161-173
    • Granger, C.W.J.1
  • 22
    • 0000109477 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy
    • Granger C.W.J., and Pesaran M.H. Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 19 (2000) 537-560
    • (2000) Journal of Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 537-560
    • Granger, C.W.J.1    Pesaran, M.H.2
  • 25
    • 33747892981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hong, Y., Chung, J., 2003. Are the Directions of Stock Price Changes Predictable? Statistical Theory and Evidence. Cornell University.
  • 26
    • 0242510033 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hong, Y., Lee, T.-H., 2003. Inference on predictability of foreign exchange rates via generalized spectrum and nonlinear time series models. Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4) 1048-1062.
  • 27
    • 33747882774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inoue, A., Kilian, L., 2005. How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of U.S. CPI Inflation. NCSU and University of Michigan.
  • 29
    • 33645021852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation, Inference, and Specification Testing for Possibly Misspecified Quantile Regressions
    • Fomby T., and Hill R.C. (Eds), Elsevier, New York
    • Kim T.-H., and White H. Estimation, Inference, and Specification Testing for Possibly Misspecified Quantile Regressions. In: Fomby T., and Hill R.C. (Eds). Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models. Twenty Years Later (2003), Elsevier, New York 107-132
    • (2003) Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models. Twenty Years Later , pp. 107-132
    • Kim, T.-H.1    White, H.2
  • 33
    • 21744436522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Komunjer, I., 2005. Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for conditional quantiles. Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming.
  • 34
    • 33747883018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kordas, G., 2005. Smoothed binary regression quantiles. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.
  • 35
    • 0037403516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measures of diversity in classifier ensembles and their relationship with the ensemble accuracy
    • Kuncheva L.I., and Whitaker C.J. Measures of diversity in classifier ensembles and their relationship with the ensemble accuracy. Machine Learning 51 (2003) 181-207
    • (2003) Machine Learning , vol.51 , pp. 181-207
    • Kuncheva, L.I.1    Whitaker, C.J.2
  • 36
    • 33747892856 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linton, O., Whang, Y.-J., 2004. A quantilogram approach to evaluating directional predictability. Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper no. 1454.
  • 37
    • 49549144751 scopus 로고
    • Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice
    • Manski C.F. Maximum score estimation of the stochastic utility model of choice. Journal of Econometrics 3 3 (1975) 205-228
    • (1975) Journal of Econometrics , vol.3 , Issue.3 , pp. 205-228
    • Manski, C.F.1
  • 38
    • 0000305992 scopus 로고
    • Semiparametric analysis of discrete response: asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator
    • Manski C.F. Semiparametric analysis of discrete response: asymptotic properties of the maximum score estimator. Journal of Econometrics 27 3 (1985) 313-333
    • (1985) Journal of Econometrics , vol.27 , Issue.3 , pp. 313-333
    • Manski, C.F.1
  • 39
    • 0013145874 scopus 로고
    • Estimation of best predictors of binary response
    • Manski C.F., and Thompson T.S. Estimation of best predictors of binary response. Journal of Econometrics 40 (1989) 97-123
    • (1989) Journal of Econometrics , vol.40 , pp. 97-123
    • Manski, C.F.1    Thompson, T.S.2
  • 40
    • 0001366850 scopus 로고
    • Exact mean integrated squared error
    • Marron J.S., and Wand M.P. Exact mean integrated squared error. Annals of Statistics 20 (1992) 712-736
    • (1992) Annals of Statistics , vol.20 , pp. 712-736
    • Marron, J.S.1    Wand, M.P.2
  • 42
    • 70350096085 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Newey, W.K., McFadden, D.L., 1994. Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing. In: Engle, R.F., McFadden, D.L. (Eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 4. Elsevier Science, pp. 2113-2247.
  • 44
    • 33747877644 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Paye, B.S., Timmermann, A., 2003. Instability of Return Predictability Models. UCSD.
  • 45
    • 0036888093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Market timing and return prediction under model instability
    • Pesaran M.H., and Timmermann A. Market timing and return prediction under model instability. Journal of Empirical Finance 9 (2002) 495-510
    • (2002) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.9 , pp. 495-510
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Timmermann, A.2
  • 47
    • 4344646763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?
    • Pesaran M.H., and Timmermann A. How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?. International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 411-424
    • (2004) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.20 , pp. 411-424
    • Pesaran, M.H.1    Timmermann, A.2
  • 49
    • 38249039685 scopus 로고
    • Censored regression quantiles
    • Powell J.L. Censored regression quantiles. Journal of Econometrics 32 (1986) 143-155
    • (1986) Journal of Econometrics , vol.32 , pp. 143-155
    • Powell, J.L.1
  • 50
    • 33747885077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 1999. A comparison of linear and nonlinear univariate models for forecasting macroeconomic time series. In: Engle, R.F., White, H. (Eds.), Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting, A Festschrift in Honor of C.W.J. Granger. Oxford University Press, London, pp. 1-44.
  • 52
    • 33747888512 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Timmermann, A., 2005. Forecast Combinations. In: Elliott, G., Granger, C.W.J., Timmermann, A., (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting. North-Holland, Amsterdam, to appear.
  • 54
    • 0742271402 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasting procedures: some theoretical results
    • Yang Y. Combining forecasting procedures: some theoretical results. Econometric Theory 20 (2004) 176-222
    • (2004) Econometric Theory , vol.20 , pp. 176-222
    • Yang, Y.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.