Demographic stochasticity, environmental variability, and windows of invasion risk for Bythotrephes longimanus in North America

Biological Invasions

Volumn 8, Issue 4, 2006, Pages 843-861

  Drake, John M ^a,e   Drury, Kevin L S ^a,b   Lodge, David M ^a   Blukacz, Agnes ^c   Yan, N D ^d   Dwyer, Greg ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^d YORK UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^e NATIONAL CENTER FOR ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS   (United States)

Author keywords

Biological invasion; Bythotrephes longimanus; Demographic stochasticity; Environmental forcing; Environmental variability; Invasion windows; Quantitative risk assessment

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL INVASION; CLIMATE FORCING; DEMOGRAPHY; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT; FLEA; LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; STOCHASTICITY;

CANADA; NORTH AMERICA; ONTARIO;

BYTHOTREPHES LONGIMANUS; CLADOCERA; SIPHONAPTERA (FLEAS);

EID: 33745652360     PISSN: 13873547     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10530-005-4205-2     Document Type: Article

References (84)

1. Bailey NTJ (1964) The Elements of Stochastic Processes. John Wiley & Sons, New York
2. Blukacz A (1998) The effects of egg mortality and second brooding on seasonal production of Bythotrephes cederstroemi in Lake Simcoe, Ontario. Undergraduate thesis, University of Toronto
3. Borbely J (2001) Modelling the spread of spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus) in inland lakes in Ontario using gravity models and GIS. Graduate thesis, University of Windsor
4. Bur MT, Klarer DM and Krieger KA (1986) First records of a European cladoceran, Bythotrephes cederstroemi, in Lakes Erie and Huron. Journal of Great Lakes Research 12: 144-146
5. Brown ME and Branstrator DK (2005) Seasonal dynamics in Bythotrephes diapausing egg emergence and production, and the role of dormancy in range expansion. Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 29: 174-178
6. Cáceres CE (1997) Dormancy in invertebrates. Invertebrate Biology 116: 371-383
7. Cáceres CE and Tessier AJ (2003) How long to rest: the ecology of optimal dormancy and environmental constraint. Ecology 84: 1189-1198
8. Caswell H (2001) Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation. 2nd edn., Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland, Massachusetts
9. Cohen AN and Carlton JT (1998) Accelerating invasion rate in a highly invaded estuary. Science 279: 555-558
10. Courchamp F, Clutton-Brock T and Grenfell B (1999) Inverse density-dependence and the Allee effect. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14: 405-410
11. Crawley MJ (1987) Chance and timing in biological invasions. In: Drake JA and Mooney H (eds) Biological Invasions: A Global Perspective, pp 407-423. John Wiley & Sons, New York
12. Crooks J and Soulé ME (1996) Lag times in population explosions of invasive species: causes and implications. In: Sandlund OT, Schei PJ and Viken A (eds) Proceedings of the Norway/UN Conference on Alien Species, pp. 39-46
13. Davis MA, Grime JP and Thompson K (2000) Fluctuating resources in plant communities: a general theory of invasibility. Journal of Ecology 88: 528-534
14. Davis MA and Pelsor M (2002) Experimental support for a resource-based mechanistic model of invasibility. Ecology Letters 4: 421-428
15. Dennis B (1989) Allee effects: population growth, critical density, and the chance of extinction. Natural Resource Modeling 3: 481-538
16. Dennis B, Munholland P and Scott JM (1991) Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecological Monographs 61: 115-143
17. Dennis B and Taper M (1994) Density dependence in time series observations of natural populations: estimation and testing. Ecological Monographs 64: 205-224
18. Drake JM (2004) Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion. Risk Analysis 24: 795-802
19. Edmondson WT (1960) Reproductive rates of rotifers in natural populations. Memorie dell'Istituto di Idrobiologia 12: 21-77
20. EPA (1998) Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Risk Assessment Forum, Washington, DC, USEPA EPA/630/R095/002F
21. Evans MS (1988) Bythotrephes cederstroemi: its new appearance in Lake Michigan. Journal of Great Lakes Research 14: 234-240
22. Fieberg J and Ellner SP (2000) When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability?. Ecology 81: 2040-2047
23. Fowler CW and Baker JD (1991) A review of animal population dynamics at extremely reduced population levels. Reports of the International Whaling Commission 41: 545-554
24. Fox GA and Kendall BE (2002) Demographic stochasticity and the variance reduction effect. Ecology 83: 1928-1934
25. Gollasch S and Leppäkoski E (1999) Initial Risk Assessment of Alien Species in Nordic Coastal Waters. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen
26. Grevstad FS (1999) Factors influencing the chance of population establishment: implications for release strategies in biocontrol. Ecological Applications 9: 1439-1447
27. Groves RH, Panetta FD and Virtue JG (2001) Weed Risk Assessment. CSIRO Publishing, Australia
28. Hairston NG Jr., Van Brunt RA and Kearns CM (1995) Age and survivorship of diapausing eggs in a sediment egg bank. Ecology 76: 1706-1711
29. Herzig A (1985) Resting eggs - a significant stage in the life cycle of crustaceans Leptodora kindti and Bythotrephes longimanus. Verhandlungen Internationale Vereinigung für theoretische und angewandte Limnologie 22: 3088-3098
30. Jarnagin ST (1998) Direct and indirect estimates of death rates and predator-mediated dispersal of Bythotrephes cederstroemi. PhD dissertation, Michigan Technological University
31. Johannsson OE, Mills EL and O'Gorman R (1991) Changes in the nearshore and offshore zooplankton communities in Lake Ontario. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 48: 1546-1557
32. Kendall BE and Fox GA (2002) Variation among individuals reduces demographic stochasticity. Conservation Biology 16: 109-116
33. Kendall BE and Fox GA (2003) Unstructured individual variation and demographic stochasticity. Conservation Biology 17: 1170-1172
34. Keane RN and Crawley MJ (2002) Exotic plant invasions and the enemy release hypothesis. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17: 164-170
35. Kolar CS and Lodge DM (2002) Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 298: 1233-1236
36. Kolar CS and Lodge DM (2001) Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 16: 199-204
37. Kolar CS and Lodge DM (2000) Freshwater nonindigenous species: interactions with other global changes. In: Mooney HA and Hobbs RJ (eds) Invasive Species in a Changing World, pp 3-30. Island Press, Washington, DC
38. Lande R and Orzack SH (1988) Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 85: 7418-7421
39. Lande R, Engen S and Sæther B-E (2003) Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford
40. Lefkovitch LP (1965) The study of population growth in organisms grouped by stages. Biometrics 21: 1-18
41. Lehman JT (1991) Causes and consequences of cladoceran dynamics in Lake Michigan: implications of species invasion by Bythotrephes. Journal of Great Lakes Research 17: 437-445
42. Lehman JT, Bilkovic DM and Sullivan C (1997) Predicting development, metabolism, and secondary production for the invertebrate predator Bythotrephes cederstroemi. Freshwater Biology 38: 343-352
43. Leigh EG Jr. (1981) The average lifetime of a population in a varying environment. Journal of Theoretical Biology 90: 213-239
44. Leslie PH (1945) On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33: 183-212
45. Leung B, Drake JM and Lodge DM (2004) Predicting invasions: propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 85: 1651-1660
46. Leung B, Lodge DM, Finnof D, Shogren JF, Lewis M and Lamberti G (2002) An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 269: 2407-2413
47. Lewontin RC and Cohen D (1969) On population growth in a randomly varying environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 62: 1056-1060
48. Lockwood JL, Cassey P and Blackburn T (2005) The role of propagule pressure in explaining species invasions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 20: 223-228
49. Lodge DM (1993) Biological invasions: lessons for ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8: 133-137
50. Lodge DM (2001) Lakes. In: Chapin FS III, Sala OE and Huber-Sanwald E (eds) Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment: Scenarios for the 21st Century, pp 227-213. Springer-Verlag, New York
51. Ludwig D (1999) Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction?. Ecology 80: 298-310
52. MacArthur RH and Wilson EO (1967) The Theory of Island Biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey
53. MacIsaac HJ, Ketelaars HAM, Grigorovich IA, Ramcharan CW and Yan ND (2000) Modeling Bythotrephes longimanus invasions in the Great Lakes basin based on its European distribution. Archives fur Hydrobiogie 149: 1-21
54. Matis JH and Kiffe TR (2000) Stochastic Population Models: A Compartmental Perspective. Springer, New York
55. McCarthy MA (1998) The Allee effect, finding mates and theoretical models. Ecological Modelling 103: 99-102
56. National Research Council (2002) Predicting Invasions of Nonindigenous Plants and Plant Pests. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
57. Naylor RL (2000) The economics of alien species invasions. In: Mooney H and Hobbs RJ (eds) Invasive Species in a Changing World, pp 241-260. Island Press, Washington, DC
58. Nisbet RM and Gurney WSC (1982) Modelling Fluctuating Populations. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
59. Paloheimo JE (1974) Calculation of instantaneous birth rate. Limnology and Oceanography 19: 692-694
60. Perrings C, Williamson M and Dalmazzone S (2000) The Economics of Biological Invasions. Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc., Cheltenham
61. Pimentel D, Lach L, Zuniga L and Morrison D (2000) Environmental and economic costs of nonindigenous species in the United States. BioScience 50: 53-65
62. Reichard SH and Hamilton CW (1997) Predicting invasions of woody plants introduced into North America. Conservation Biology 11: 193-203
63. Ricciardi A (2001) Facilitative interactions among aquatic invaders: is an "invasional meltdown" occurring in the Great Lakes?. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 2513-2525
64. Ricciardi A and Rasmussen JB (1998) Predicting the identity and impact of future biological invaders: a priority for aquatic resource management. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 55: 1759-1765
65. Richter-Dyn N and Goel NS (1972) On the extinction of a colonizing species. Theoretical Population Biology 3: 406-433
66. Renshaw E (1991) Modelling Biological Populations in Space and Time. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
67. Sakai AK, Allendorf FW, Holt JS, Lodge DM, Molofsky J, With KA, Baughman S., Cabin RJ, Cohen JE, Ellstrand NC, McCauley DE, O'Neil P, Parker IM, Thompson JN and Weller SG (2001) The population biology of invasive species. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 32: 305-322
68. Sala OE, et al. (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287: 1770-1774
69. Simberloff D (1989) Which insect introductions succeed and which fail? In: Drake J.A., Mooney H.A., Di Castri F., Grovers R.H., Kruger F.J., Rejmanek M. and Williamson M. (eds) Biological invasions: a global perspective, SCOPE 37, pp 61-75. John Wiley, Chichester, UK
70. Smith CS, Lonsdale WM and Fortune J (1999) When to ignore advice: invasion predictions and invasion theory. Biological Invasions 1: 89-96
71. Soulé ME (1987) Viable Populations for Conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
72. Sprules WG, Riessen HP and Jin EH (1990) Dynamics of the Bythotrephes invasion of the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research 16: 346-351
73. Straile D and Hälbich A (2000) Life history and multiple antipredator defenses of an invertebrate pelagic predator, Bythotrephes longimanus. Ecology 81: 150-163
74. Tier C and Hanson FB (1981) Persistence of density dependent stochastic populations. Mathematical Biosciences 53: 89-117
75. Tuljapurkar S (1990) Population Dynamics in Variable Environments. Springer Verlag, Germany
76. Tuljapurkar SD and Orzack SH (1980) Population dynamics in variable environments, I. Long-run growth rates and extinction. Theoretical Population Biology 18: 314-342
77. Warner RR and Chesson PL (1985) Coexistence mediated by environmental variability: a field guide to the storage effect. American Naturalist 125: 769-787
78. Williamson MH and Fitter A (1996) The varying success of invaders. Ecology 77: 1661-1666
79. Wilson EO (2000) On the future of conservation biology. Conservation Biology 14: 1-3
80. Wood SN (1994) Obtaining birth and mortality patterns from structured population trajectories. Ecological Monographs 64: 23-44
81. Yan ND, Blukacz A, Sprules WG, Kindy PK, Hackett D, Girard RE and Clark BJ (2001) Changes in zooplankton and the phenology of the spiny water flea, Bythotrephes, following its invasion of Harp Lake, Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58: 2431-2350
82. Yan ND, Girard R and Boudreau S (2002) An introduced invertebrate predator (Bythotrephes) reduced zooplankton species richness. Ecology Letters 5: 481-485
83. Yurista PM (1992) Embryonic and postembryonic development in Bythotrephes cederstroemi. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 49: 1118-1225
84. Yurista PM (1997) Bythotrephes cederstroemi diapausing egg distribution and abundance in Lake Michigan and the environmental cues for breaking diapause. Journal of Great Lakes Research 23: 202-209