Squeezing the balloon?: United States air interdiction and the restructuring of the South American drug industry in the 1990s

Crime, Law and Social Change

Volumn 44, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 35-78

  Friesendorf, Cornelius ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 33744959210     PISSN: 09254994     EISSN: 15730751     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10611-006-9005-9     Document Type: Article

References (220)

1. Earlier versions of this article were presented at the 63rd Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 7-10, 2005, Chicago, and at the George Washington University Seminar on Andean Culture and Politics, April 21, 2005. These earlier versions were written while I was a Visiting Fellow at the Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University. For their hospitality at Brown, I thank especially Peter Andreas, Thomas Biersteker, and James Der Derian. For their comments, I thank Peter Andreas, Christopher Findlay, J. Michael Greig, Adam Isacson, Peter K. Manning, Cynthia McClintock, Daniel Möckli, Theo Roncken, Andreas Wenger, Nedd Willard, Coletta Youngers, and the anonymous reviewers.
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14. Joseph Westermeyer, Poppies, Pipes, and People: Opium and its Use in Laos (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1982).
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16. Walsh, Vicious Circle: The Chemical and Biological 'War on Drugs' op. cit.
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18. Michael Massing, The Fix (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2000), chapter 4.
19. Rensselaer W. Lee III, "Perverse Effects of Andean Counternarcotics Policy," Orbis 2002 (46: 3), 537-554.
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21. Ron Chepesiuk, Hard Target: The United States War Against International Drug Trafficking, 1982-1997 (Jefferson: McFarland & Company, 1999);
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23. Betsy Marsh, "Going to Extremes. The U.S.-Funded Aerial Eradication Program in Colombia," Report published by The Latin America Working Group Education Fund, Washington DC (March 2004), p. 8.
24. Jon Elster, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 3.
25. Stares, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences, op. cit.
26. Ralph Seccombe, "Squeezing the Balloon: International Drugs Policy," Drug and Alcohol Review 1995 (14: 3), 311-316.
27. Frank O. Mora, "Victims of the Balloon Effect: Drug Trafficking and U.S. Policy in Brazil and the Southern Cone of Latin America," The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies 1996 (21: 2), 115-140.
28. McCoy, The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies, op. cit.
29. Peter Dale Scott, Drugs, Oil, and War: The United States in Afghanistan, Colombia, and Indochina (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2003);
30. Alain Labrousse and Michel Koutouzis, Géopolitique et Géostratégie des Drogues (Paris: Economica, 1996).
31. Shona Morrison, "The Dynamics of Illicit Drugs Production: Future Sources and Threats," Crime, Law & Social Change 1997 (27:2), 121-138.
32. Sandro Calvani, Elisabeth Guia, Jean-Luc Lemahieu, "Drug Resistance Rating: An Innovative Approach for Measuring a Country's Capacity to Resist Illegal Drugs," Third World Quarterly 1997 (18: 4), 659-672.
33. See Peter Hedström and Richard Swedberg (eds.), Social Mechanisms: An Analytical Approach to Social Theory (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
34. Christopher Daase, Kleine Kriege - Große Wirkung: Wie unkonventionelle Kriegführung die internationale Politik verändert (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 1999), p. 80.
35. See Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).
36. Hedström/Swedberg, op. cit., System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life, 24.
37. Alexander E. Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), pp. 84 and 88.
38. Milja Kurki, "Causes of a Divided Discipline: A Critical Examination of the Concept of Cause in International Relations Theory," Global Politics Network (2002), www.globalpolitics.net (last accessed on 1 December 2005).
39. Feedback effects are discussed in Paul Pierson, "When Effect Becomes Cause: Policy Feedback and Political Change," World Politics 1993 (45, July), 595-628.
40. On how-possible questions in international relations theory see Alexander E. Wendt, "On Constitution and Causation in International Relations," Review of International Studies 1998 (24: Special Issue), 101-117.
41. Eva Bertram and Kenneth Sharpe, "The Unwinnable Drug War: What Clausewitz Would Tell Us," World Policy Journal 1996 (97 (13: 4), 41-51.
42. Phil Williams, "The Nature of Drug-Trafficking Networks," Current History 1998 (97: 618), 154-159, here p. 159.
43. Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences (Cambridge, MA, and London: The MIT Press, 2005), p. 206.
44. Ibid, Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences p. 218.
45. The ABDP had a transit country component as well, which is not examined in this article. Moreover, the article does not study illicit poppy cultivation, heroin production, and opium and heroin smuggling.
46. David F. Musto, The American Disease: Origins of Narcotic Control (3rd Edition, New York: Oxford University Press, 1999).
47. Eva Bertram, Morris Blachman, Kenneth Sharpe, and Peter Andreas, Drug War Politics: The Price of Denial (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996).
48. Bruce M. Bagley, "The New Hundred Years War? US National Security and the War on Drugs in Latin America," Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 1988 (30: 2-3), 161-186.
49. Cornelius Friesendorf, Der internationale Drogenhandel als sicherheitspolitisches Risiko: Eine Erklärung der deutschen und US-amerikanischen Gegenstrategien (Münster. LIT, 2001).
50. Carlos G. Arrieta, Luis J. Orjuela, Eduardo S. Palacio, and Juan G. Tokatlián, Narcotráfico en Colombia: Dimensiones Políticas, Económicas, Jurídicas e Internacionales (Santafé de Bogotá: Ediciones Uniandes y Tercer Mundo Editores, 1993).
51. Cocaine paste is made from mashed coca leaves and chemical products, generally at or near the coca growing sites. To produce around 2.5 kilograms of cocaine paste, 300-500 kilograms of high alkaloid coca leaves are needed.
52. Quoted in: Robert Filippone, "The Medellin Cartel: Why We Can't Win the Drug War," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 1994 (17: 4), 323-344, here p. 325.
53. Peter Zirnite, Reluctant Recruits: The U.S. Military and the War on Drugs (Washington DC: Washington Office on Latin America, 1997), 28;
54. Theo Roncken (ed.), The Drug War in the Skies. The U.S. "Air Bridge Denial" Strategy: The Success of a Failure (Cochabamba: Acción Andina and Transnational Institute, 1999), p. 23. I thank Martin Jelsma for sending me a copy of Theo Roncken's excellent report, which includes numerous references and carefully assesses the validity of US policymakers' claims about the ABDP's impact on the South American drug industry.
55. Peter C. Rydell and Susan S. Everingham, Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs (Santa Monica: RAND, 1994).
56. Peter Zirnite, "The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America," Current History 1998 (97: 618), 166-173;
57. Roncken, Current History, op. cit.
58. United States General Accounting Office, An Overview of U.S. Counterdrug Intelligence Activities, June 1998 (Washington DC: GAO NSIAD-98-142), p. 7.
59. Transnational Institute, "Forward Operation Locations in Latin America: Transcending Drug Control," Debate Paper (No. 8, 2003, Amsterdam), p. 21.
60. Roncken, Debate Paper, op. cit., 26.
61. William W. Mendel and Murl D. Munger, "The Drug Threat: Getting Priorities Straight," Parameters 1997 (Summer), 110-124, here p. 118.
62. John T. Fishel, "Developing a Drug War Strategy. Lessons from Operation Blast Furnace," Military Review 1991 (June), 61-69;
63. William W. Mendel, "Illusive Victory: From Blast Furnace to Green Sweep," Military Review 1992 (December), 74-87.
64. Stephen P. Howard, The Military War on Drugs: Too Many Assets, Too Few Results (Monterey: Naval Postgraduate School, 2001), p. 30, footnote 41.
65. Cynthia McClintock and Fabian Vallas, The United States and Peru: Cooperation at a Cost (New York and London: Routledge, 2003), p. 120.
66. Sewall H. Menzel, Fire in the Andes: U.S. Foreign Policy and Cocaine Politics in Bolivia and Peru (Lanham: University Press of America, 1996), p. 44.
67. Sewall H. Menzel, Fire in the Andes: U.S. Foreign Policy and Cocaine Politics in Bolivia and Peru, Ibid., pp. 130-134.
68. Michael L. Evans (ed.), Shootdown in Peru: The Secret U.S. Debate overIntelligence Sharing with Peru and Colombia, (Washington DC: A National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book, April 23, 2001), http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB44/ (last accessed on 1 December 2005).
69. Roncken, Shootdown in Peru: The Secret U.S. Debate overIntelligence Sharing with Peru and Colombia, op. cit.;
70. Transnational Institute, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, 27-29;
71. McClintock/Vallas, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit, p. 120.
72. Some information is provided in Robert W. Anthony, Barry D. Crane and Stephen F. Hanson, Deterrence Effects and Peru's Force-Down/Shoot-Down Policy: Lessons Learned for Counter-Cocaine Interdiction Operations, April 2000 (Alexandria: Institute for Defense Analyses), pp. 18-19, 30;
73. Mendel, Illusive Victory, 78-79;
74. Menzel, Fire in the Andes;
75. Roncken, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., pp. 36-37.
76. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, pp. 57-58.
77. For a chronology of Operation Support Justice III see Anthony/Crane/Hanson, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. III-25.
78. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, pp. 165-166.
79. James Painter, Bolivia and Coca: A Study in Dependency (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1994), p. 86.
80. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, pp. 15, 52-53, 156-157.
81. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, Ibid., pp. 75, 165, 170.
82. Mendel, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., pp. 78-79.
83. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, pp. 70-71.
84. Coletta A. Youngers, "Fueling Failure: U.S. Drug Control Efforts in the Andes," WOLA Briefing Series, April 1995 (Washington DC: Washington Office on Latin America), p. 6;
85. McClintock/Vallas, WOLA Briefing Series, op. cit., pp. 118-119.
86. Isaías Rojas 2005, "Peru: Drug Control Policy, Human Rights, and Democracy," in: Youngers/Rosin, WOLA Briefing Series, op. cit., 185-230, here p. 197;
87. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, WOLA Briefing Series, op. cit., p. III-29.
88. Sewall H. Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire: Implementing the U.S. Anti-Drug Policy in the North Andes Colombia (Lanham: University Press of America, 1997), p. 102.
89. Evans, Shootdown in Peru; Kevin Jack Riley, Snow Job? The War Against International Cocaine Trafficking (New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1996), p. 190.
90. Quoted in: Russell Crandall, "Clinton, Bush and Plan Colombia, " Survival 2002 (44: 1), 159-172, here p. 38.
91. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, Survival, op. cit., p. 111-31.
92. The legal aspects of shooting down civil aircrafts are discussed in Darren C. Huskisson, "The Air Bridge Denial Program and the Shootdown of Civil Aircraft Under International Law," Air Force Law Review 2005 (56, Winter).
93. Suren Basov, Mireille Jacobson, and Jeffrey A. Miron 2001 "Prohibition and the Market for Illegal Drugs. An Overview of Recent History," World Economics 2001 (2: 4), 133-157, here p. 149;
94. Juan Gabriel Tokatlián, "The United States and Illegal Crops in Colombia: The Tragic Mistake of Futile Fumigation," Working Paper, No. 3, June 2003 (Berkeley: Center for Latin American Studies, University of California), p. 24.
95. Note that these figures are taken from reports issued by the US State Department. Ricardo Vargas provides higher estimates. Ricardo Vargas, "The Anti-Drug Policy, Aerial Spraying of Illicit Crops and their Social, Environmental and Political Impacts in Colombia," Journal of Drug Issues 2002 (32:1), 11-60, here p. 22.
96. Michael L. Evans, "U.S. Drug Policy & Intelligence Operations in the Andes," Foreign Policy in Focus 2001 (6: 22, June).
97. Riley, Foreign Policy in Focus, op. cit., p. 187.
98. McClintock/Vallas, Foreign Policy in Focus, op. cit., pp. 120-123;
99. Rojas, Foreign Policy in Focus, op. cit.
100. Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, pp. 170-171.
101. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 19;
102. Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, p. 171.
103. Jayme Brener, "Radical Maneuvers," in Transnational Institute, The Bolivian Documentation and Information Center, and Inforpress Centroamericana (eds.), Democracy, Human Rights, and Militarism in the War on Drugs in Latin America (Guatemala: Inforpress Centroamericana, 1997), p. 17.
104. Quoted in: Roncken, Democracy, Human Rights, and Militarism in the War on Drugs in Latin Americam, op. cit., 42.
105. For a very similar statement by McCaffrey see Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, p. 171.
106. Basov/Jacobson/Miron, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 149.
107. Roncken, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 9.
108. Ingolf Dietrich, "Alternative Entwicklung in Peru - ein Erfolgsmodell?," Entwicklung und ländlicher Raum 2002 (36: 3), 25-27, here p. 26.
109. Vargas, The Anti-Drug Policy, Aerial Spraying of Illicit Crops and Their Social, Environmental and Political Impacts in Colombia, p. 22;
110. Dietrich, Aerial Spraying of Illicit Crops and Their Social, Environmental and Political Impacts in Colombia, op. cit., p. 26.
111. See McClintock/Vallas, Aerial Spraying of Illicit Crops and Their Social, Environmental and Political Impacts in Colombia, op. cit., p. 115.
112. Transnational Institute, Progress Report as a Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS (Amsterdam: Transnational Institute, 2003), p. 2.
113. Rojas, Progress Report As A Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS, op. cit., p. 210.
114. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 96;
115. Roncken, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., pp. 9 and 54.
116. Roncken, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. 54.
117. Fire in the Andes, Ibid., pp. 49-52.
118. National Narcotics Intelligence Consumers Committee 1998, The Supply of Illicit Drugs to the United States, (Washington DC, November 1997), pp. 4 and 25.
119. Central Intelligence Agency 1998, Changing Drug Trade in the Americas, Intelligence Report, DCI Crime and Narcotics Center (Washington DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 23 February 1998);
120. United States General Accounting Office, Narcotics Threat From Colombia Continues to Grow, June 1999 (Washington DC: General Accounting Office, GAO NSIAD-99-136).
121. Roncken, Narcotics Threat from Colombia Continues to Grow, op. cit., p. 51.
122. Transnational Institute, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America.
123. Quoted in: Transnational Institute, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, 9.
124. Since the FOLs became fully operational only in the early 21st century, their significance during the 1990s was limited. See Adam Isacson, "The U.S. Military in the War on Drugs," in Youngers/Rosin, op. cit., Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, 15-60, here p. 30.
125. Clifford Krauss, "Peru's Drug Successes Erode as Traffickers Adapt," New York Times, 19 August 1999.
126. European NGO Council on Drugs and Development, Drugs and Development, Newsletter, No. 27, May 2001 (ENCOD: Antwerp), p. 2.
127. Thad Dunning and Leslie Wirpsa, "Oil and the Political Economy of Conflict in Colombia and Beyond: A Linkages Approach," in: Geopolitics 2004 (9: 1), 81-108, here p. 93.
128. Quoted in: Juan O. Tamayo, "Risks for U.S. Military in Andes Drug War," The Miami Herald, 22 May 2001.
129. For a chronology of the accident see the report of a joint US-Peruvian investigation: Department of State, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, Peru Investigation Report: The April 20, 2001 Peru vian Shootdown Accident, Washington DC, 2001.
130. Evans, Shootdown in Peru.
131. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 147;
132. Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire, p. 125.
133. Quoted in: Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, p. 169.
134. McClintock/Vallas, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., pp. 120 and 139.
135. Aerial interdiction is not the only element of the US anti-drug effort that was hampered by a selective application of pressure. Ground operations were marked by selectivity as well.
136. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 33.
137. See also Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire, p. 52.
138. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, pp. 72-73.
139. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, Ibid., p. 215.
140. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, Ibid., p. 185.
141. Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, 30;
142. United States General Accounting Office, Long-Standing Problems Hinder U.S. International Efforts, February 1997 (Washington DC: General Accounting Office, GAO/NSIAD-97-75), pp. 15-16.
143. General Accounting Office, An Overview of U.S. Counterdrug Intelligence Activities.
144. Tokatlián, An Overview of U.S. Counterdrug Intelligence Activities, op. cit., p. 20;
145. Rensselaer W. Lee III and Francisco E. Thoumi, "The Political-Criminal Nexus in Colombia," Trends in Organized Crime 1999 (5:2), 59-84, here pp. 71-77.
146. Vargas, The Anti-Drag Policy, Aerial Spraying of Illicit Crops and Their Social, Environmental and Political Impacts in Colombia, pp. 22-23.
147. David Mansfield and Jim Whetton, "Illicit Drugs in Developing Countries: A Literature Review," University of Swansea, Centre for Development Studies, 1996, p. 43;
148. LaMond Tullis, Unintended Consequences: Illegal Drugs and Drug Policies in Nine Countries (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1995), p. 163.
149. Roncken, Unintended Consequences: Illegal Drugs and Drug Policies in Nine Countries, op. cit., p. 52;
150. Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire, p. 125.
151. Howard, Cocaine Quagmire, op. cit., p. 31;
152. Riley, Cocaine Quagmire, op. cit., p. 191.
153. Filippone, Cocaine Quagmire, op. cit., p. 341.
154. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 167.
155. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, Ibid., p. 45;
156. Lee/Thoumi, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. 69.
157. Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire, p. 113.
158. Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire, Ibid., p. 119.
159. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 167.
160. Quoted in: Independent Task Force, Rethinking International Drug Control: New Directions/or U.S. Policy, (Washington DC: Council on Foreign Relations, 1997), p. 42.
161. Arlene B. Tickner, "Colombia and the United States: From Counternarcotics to Counterterrorism," Current History 2003 (101: 661), 77-85, here p. 80.
162. For a more detailed discussion see Cornelius Friesendorf, US Foreign Policy and the War on Drugs: Displacing the Cocaine and Heroin Industry (New York and London: Routledge, forthcoming), Chapter 4.
163. "Birth of the Baby Cartels," Newsweek 1995 (21 August 1995), p. 16.
164. Ricardo Vargas, "The Impact of U.S. Fumigation Programs," in Counter-Narcotics Policy and Prospects for Peace: Eradication and Alternative Development in Southern Colombia, Report of a Seminar Sponsored by the George Washington University and the Washington Office on Latin America, 29 October 1999.
165. Francisco E. Thoumi, El Imperio de la Droga: Narcotráfico, Economíta y Sociedad en Los Andes (Bogota: Planetya, 2002).
166. Riley, El Imperio de la Droga: Narcotráfico, Economíta y Sociedad en Los Andes, op. cit., pp. 107-108;
167. Youngers, Fueling Failure, pp. 3-4;
168. Bruce H. Kay, "Violent Opportunities: The Rise and Fall of 'King Coca' and Shining Path," Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 1999 (41:3), 97-127, here p. 109.
169. David Scott Palmer, "Peru, the Drug Business and Shining Path: Between Scylla and Charybdis?," Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 1992 (34: 3), 65-88.
170. McClintock/Vallas, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., p. 115.
171. Dietrich, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., p. 26.
172. Kay, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., pp. 114-115.
173. McClintock/Vallas, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., pp. 78-84.
174. For a slightly different interpretation see Rojas, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., p. 197.
175. National Narcotics Intelligence Consumers Committee, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., p. 25.
176. Quoted in: Roncken, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, op. cit., p. 7.
177. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 184;
178. McClintock/Vallas, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. 115.
179. Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, pp. 170-171;
180. Zirnite, Reluctant Recruits, pp. 28-29.
181. Independent Task Force, Zirnite, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 48;
182. Roncken, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 48, footnotes 99 and 100;
183. McClintock/Vallas, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 115.
184. McClintock/Vallas, The Militarization of the Drug War in Latin America, op. cit., p. 115.
185. For a high figure see Robert Lessmann, "Amerikanisierung und Militarisierung: Die auswärtige Drogenpolitik der USA," in P. Rudolf and J. Wilzewski (eds.), Weltmacht ohne Gegner: Amerikanische Aussenpolitik zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2000), 335-362, here p. 348, footnote 31.
186. For a lower estimate see Bruce M. Bagley, "Drug Trafficking, Political Violence and U.S. Policy in Colombia in the 1990s," Working Paper, 5 January 2001 (Miami: University of Miami), p 5, http://www.mamacoca.org/junio2001/bagley-drugs_and_violence_en.htm (last accessed on 1 December 2005).
187. Roncken, Working Paper, op. cit., p. 48.
188. Vargas, The Anti-Drug Policy, Aerial Spraying of Elicit Crops and Their Social, Environmental and Political Impacts in Colombia, p. 22.
189. Transnational Institute: Progress Report as a Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS, pp. 3-1
190. Hoffmann, Transnational Institute: Progress Report As A Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS, op. cit., p. 587, footnote 3;
191. Central Central Intelligence Agency, op. cit. Hoffmann, Transnational Institute: Progress Report As A Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS, p. 587
192. Riley, Transnational Institute: Progress Report As A Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS, op. cit., p. 183.
193. Chávez later accused Montensinos of complicity in the drug trade. See Rojas, Transnational Institute: Progress Report As A Contribution to the Midterm (2003) Review of UNGASS, op. cit., p. 208.
194. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 54.
195. Author interview with senior US government official of the Narcotics Affairs Section (NAS), US Embassy, Lima, 28 August 2003; author interview with senior US government official of the NAS, US Embassy, La Paz, 2 September 2003.
196. Painter, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. 91.
197. See also Riley, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. 123.
198. For the DEA assessment see Roncken, Fire in the Andes, op. cit., p. 10.
199. For the opposite view see Ricardo Vargas, "Die ökonomischen und sozialen Auswirkungen einer Gangster-Wirtschaft: Drogengeschäft und Arbeitsplátze in Kolumbien," in B. Rütsche and P. Stirnimann (eds.), Drogen und dritte Welt: Plädoyer für eine neue Nord-Süd-Drogenpolitik (Luzern: Exodus, 1997), 62-73, here p. 64.
200. I thank Theo Roncken for his comments on this point.
201. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, Drogen und dritte Welt: Plädoyer für eine neue Nord-süd-drogenpolitik, op. cit., p. I-14.
202. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, Drogen und dritte Welt: Plädoyer für eine neue Nord-süd-drogenpolitik, Ibid., p. 111-35.
203. Menzel, Fire in the Andes, p. 199;
204. Menzel, Cocaine Quagmire, p. 169.
205. Transnational Institute, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, p. 22.
206. Filippone, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., p. 329.
207. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., p. IV-44.
208. McClintock/Vallas, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., p. 126.
209. See also Central Intelligence Agency, McClintock/Vallas, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, p. 126. op. cit.
210. Anthony/Crane/Hanson, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., pp. ES-1, ES-3, IV-44.
211. For quotes from reviews see Roncken, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., p. 83.
212. Central Intelligence Agency 1998, Roncken, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., footnote 1;
213. McClintock/Vallas, Forward Operation Locations in Latin America, op. cit., p. 127.
214. On necessity and sufficiency see Gary Goertz and Harvey Starr (eds.), Necessary Conditions: Theory, Methodology, and Applications (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2003).
215. For an analysis of three cases see Friesendorf, US Foreign Policy and the War on Drugs. 169.
216. McClintock/Vallas, US Foreign Policy and the War on Drugs. op. cit., p. 123.
217. United States Government Accountability Office, Air Bridge Denial Program In Colombia Has Implemented New Safeguards, but Its Effect on Drug Trafficking Is Not Clear, September 2005 (Washington DC: GAO-05-970).
218. Peter Reuter, "Why Does Research Have so Little Impact on American Drug Policy?", Addiction 2001 (96:3), 373-376.
219. David R. Bewley-Taylor, "Harm Reduction and the Global Drug Control Regime: Contemporary Problems and Future Prospects", Drug and Alcohol Review 2004 (23:4), 483-489.
220. Tullis, Drug and Alcohol Review, op. cit., p. 179.