메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 12, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 181-213

The exchange paradox: Probabilistic and cognitive analysis of a psychological conundrum

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 33646767078     PISSN: 13546783     EISSN: 14640708     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/lap.2006.0022     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (15)

References (71)
  • 1
    • 33646757960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the two-box paradox
    • Agnew, R. A. (2004). On the two-box paradox. Mathematics Magazine, 77(4), 302-308.
    • (2004) Mathematics Magazine , vol.77 , Issue.4 , pp. 302-308
    • Agnew, R.A.1
  • 2
    • 0037330193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • College students' conceptions of probability
    • Albert, J. H. (2003). College students' conceptions of probability. The American Statistician, 57(1), 37-45.
    • (2003) The American Statistician , vol.57 , Issue.1 , pp. 37-45
    • Albert, J.H.1
  • 3
    • 0013987268 scopus 로고
    • The test of significance in psychological research
    • Bakan, D. (1966). The test of significance in psychological research. Psychological Bulletin. 66, 432-437.
    • (1966) Psychological Bulletin , vol.66 , pp. 432-437
    • Bakan, D.1
  • 5
    • 0020104124 scopus 로고
    • Some teasers concerning conditional probabilities
    • Bar-Hillel, M., & Falk, R. (1982). Some teasers concerning conditional probabilities. Cognition, 11, 109-122.
    • (1982) Cognition , vol.11 , pp. 109-122
    • Bar-Hillel, M.1    Falk, R.2
  • 6
    • 0007935565 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans
    • Benartzi, S., & Thaller, R. H. (2001). Naive diversification strategies in defined contribution saving plans. The American Economic Review, 91(1), 79-98.
    • (2001) The American Economic Review , vol.91 , Issue.1 , pp. 79-98
    • Benartzi, S.1    Thaller, R.H.2
  • 8
    • 33646774042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Elusive optimality in the box problem
    • Blachman, N. M., & Kilgour, D. M. (2001), Elusive optimality in the box problem. Mathematics Magazine, 74(3), 171-181.
    • (2001) Mathematics Magazine , vol.74 , Issue.3 , pp. 171-181
    • Blachman, N.M.1    Kilgour, D.M.2
  • 9
    • 0043283417 scopus 로고
    • Letter to the editor, response to Mixon (1995)
    • Brams, S. J., & Kilgour, D. M. (1995a). Letter to the editor, response to Mixon (1995). Mathematics Magazine, 68, 322-323.
    • (1995) Mathematics Magazine , vol.68 , pp. 322-323
    • Brams, S.J.1    Kilgour, D.M.2
  • 10
    • 0043283417 scopus 로고
    • The box problem: To switch or not to switch
    • Brams, S. J., & Kilgour, D. M. (1995b). The box problem: To switch or not to switch. Mathematics Magazine, 68(1), 27-34.
    • (1995) Mathematics Magazine , vol.68 , Issue.1 , pp. 27-34
    • Brams, S.J.1    Kilgour, D.M.2
  • 11
    • 33646795749 scopus 로고
    • 4.04, 16 February to 3 March
    • [See review in Chance News, 4.04, 16 February to 3 March, 1995.]
    • (1995) Chance News
  • 12
    • 2342608360 scopus 로고
    • The two-envelope paradox
    • Broome, J. (1995). The two-envelope paradox. Analysis, 55, 6-11.
    • (1995) Analysis , vol.55 , pp. 6-11
    • Broome, J.1
  • 13
    • 33646811265 scopus 로고
    • Neckties, wallets, and money for nothing
    • Brown, A. C. (1995). Neckties, wallets, and money for nothing. Journal of Recreational Mathematics, 27, 116-122.
    • (1995) Journal of Recreational Mathematics , vol.27 , pp. 116-122
    • Brown, A.C.1
  • 14
    • 33646788140 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The fallacy of the two envelopes problem
    • Bruss, F. T. (1996). The fallacy of the two envelopes problem. Mathematical Scientist, 21, 112-119.
    • (1996) Mathematical Scientist , vol.21 , pp. 112-119
    • Bruss, F.T.1
  • 15
    • 33646773670 scopus 로고
    • On a problem about probability and decision
    • Cargile, J. (1992). On a problem about probability and decision. Analysis, 52, 211-216.
    • (1992) Analysis , vol.52 , pp. 211-216
    • Cargile, J.1
  • 16
    • 33646801696 scopus 로고
    • What is probability?
    • Carnap, R. (1953). What is probability? Scientific American, 189(3), 128-138.
    • (1953) Scientific American , vol.189 , Issue.3 , pp. 128-138
    • Carnap, R.1
  • 17
    • 33646814099 scopus 로고
    • New York: Dover. (Pillow problems originally published in 1895.)
    • Carroll, L. (1958). Pillow problems and a tangled tale. New York: Dover. (Pillow problems originally published in 1895.)
    • (1958) Pillow Problems and a Tangled Tale
    • Carroll, L.1
  • 19
    • 2342611723 scopus 로고
    • The two envelope paradox: The infinite case
    • Castell, P., & Batens, D. (1994). The two envelope paradox: The infinite case. Analysis, 54, 46-49.
    • (1994) Analysis , vol.54 , pp. 46-49
    • Castell, P.1    Batens, D.2
  • 20
    • 21244456153 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian resolution of the "exchange paradox."
    • [See Blachman, Christensen, & Utts, 1996, for correction of errors]
    • Christensen, R., & Utts, J. (1992). Bayesian resolution of the "exchange paradox.'' The American Statistician, 46, 274-276. [See Blachman, Christensen, & Utts, 1996, for correction of errors.]
    • (1992) The American Statistician , vol.46 , pp. 274-276
    • Christensen, R.1    Utts, J.2
  • 21
    • 0039802908 scopus 로고
    • The earth is round (p < .05)
    • Cohen, J. (1994). The earth is round (p < .05). American Psychologist, 49, 997-1003.
    • (1994) American Psychologist , vol.49 , pp. 997-1003
    • Cohen, J.1
  • 22
    • 26444433586 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research
    • Edwards, W., Lindman, H., & Savage, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Review, 70(3), 193-242.
    • (1963) Psychological Review , vol.70 , Issue.3 , pp. 193-242
    • Edwards, W.1    Lindman, H.2    Savage, L.J.3
  • 23
    • 0026877229 scopus 로고
    • A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners
    • Falk, R. (1992). A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners. Cognition, 43, 197-223.
    • (1992) Cognition , vol.43 , pp. 197-223
    • Falk, R.1
  • 24
    • 21844478308 scopus 로고
    • Infinity: A cognitive challenge
    • Falk, R. (1994). Infinity: A cognitive challenge. Theory & Psychology, 4(1), 35-60.
    • (1994) Theory & Psychology , vol.4 , Issue.1 , pp. 35-60
    • Falk, R.1
  • 25
    • 21844512087 scopus 로고
    • Significance tests die hard: The amazing persistence of a probabilistic misconception
    • Falk, R., & Greenbaum, C. W. (1995). Significance tests die hard: The amazing persistence of a probabilistic misconception. Theory & Psychology, 5, 75-98.
    • (1995) Theory & Psychology , vol.5 , pp. 75-98
    • Falk, R.1    Greenbaum, C.W.2
  • 26
    • 0003338717 scopus 로고
    • The psychology of learning probability
    • F. S. Gordon & S. P. Gordon (Eds.). Washington, DC: The Mathematical Association of America
    • Falk, R, & Konold, C. (1992). The psychology of learning probability. In F. S. Gordon & S. P. Gordon (Eds.), Statistics for the twenty-first century (pp. 151-164). Washington, DC: The Mathematical Association of America.
    • (1992) Statistics for the Twenty-first Century , pp. 151-164
    • Falk, R.1    Konold, C.2
  • 27
    • 33646771892 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lewis Carroll's obtuse problem
    • Falk, R., & Samuel-Cahn, E. (2001). Lewis Carroll's obtuse problem. Teaching Statistics, 23(3), 72-75.
    • (2001) Teaching Statistics , vol.23 , Issue.3 , pp. 72-75
    • Falk, R.1    Samuel-Cahn, E.2
  • 31
    • 0002563227 scopus 로고
    • The effect of methods of ascertainment upon the estimation of frequencies
    • Fisher, R. A. (1934). The effect of methods of ascertainment upon the estimation of frequencies. Annals of Eugenics, 6, 13-25.
    • (1934) Annals of Eugenics , vol.6 , pp. 13-25
    • Fisher, R.A.1
  • 32
    • 0042496237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty
    • Fox, C. R., & Rottenstreich, Y. (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty. Psychological Science. 14(3), 195-200.
    • (2003) Psychological Science , vol.14 , Issue.3 , pp. 195-200
    • Fox, C.R.1    Rottenstreich, Y.2
  • 36
    • 0040164831 scopus 로고
    • There are three times as many obtuse-angled triangles as there are acute-angled ones
    • Guy, R. K. (1993). There are three times as many obtuse-angled triangles as there are acute-angled ones. Mathematics Magazine, 66(3), 175-179.
    • (1993) Mathematics Magazine , vol.66 , Issue.3 , pp. 175-179
    • Guy, R.K.1
  • 40
    • 21244473731 scopus 로고
    • The two envelope "paradox."
    • Jackson, F., Menzies, P., & Oppy, G. (1994). The two envelope "paradox." Analysis, 54, 43-45.
    • (1994) Analysis , vol.54 , pp. 43-45
    • Jackson, F.1    Menzies, P.2    Oppy, G.3
  • 43
    • 0037629949 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: Discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser
    • Krauss, S., & Wang, X. T. (2003). The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: Discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 132(1), 3-22.
    • (2003) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.132 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-22
    • Krauss, S.1    Wang, X.T.2
  • 45
    • 26644448835 scopus 로고
    • Three pseudo-paradoxes in "quantum" decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility
    • Marinoff, L. (1993). Three pseudo-paradoxes in "quantum" decision theory: Apparent effects of observation on probability and utility. Theory and Decision, 35, 55-76.
    • (1993) Theory and Decision , vol.35 , pp. 55-76
    • Marinoff, L.1
  • 47
    • 33646767890 scopus 로고
    • Comment on Brams and Kilgour (1995) (and editor's response)
    • Mixon, W. (1995). Comment on Brams and Kilgour (1995) (and editor's response). Mathematics Magazine, 68, 322-323.
    • (1995) Mathematics Magazine , vol.68 , pp. 322-323
    • Mixon, W.1
  • 49
    • 4544297884 scopus 로고
    • Puzzles: Cider in your ear, continuing dilemma, the last shall be first, and more
    • Nalebuff, B. (1988). Puzzles: Cider in your ear, continuing dilemma, the last shall be first, and more. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2, 149-156.
    • (1988) Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol.2 , pp. 149-156
    • Nalebuff, B.1
  • 50
    • 0013175362 scopus 로고
    • Puzzles: The other person's envelope is always greener
    • Nalebuff, B. (1989). Puzzles: The other person's envelope is always greener. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3, 171-181.
    • (1989) Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol.3 , pp. 171-181
    • Nalebuff, B.1
  • 51
    • 2242494558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ambiguities and unstated assumptions in probabilistic reasoning
    • Nickerson, R. S. (1996). Ambiguities and unstated assumptions in probabilistic reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 120, 410-433.
    • (1996) Psychological Bulletin , vol.120 , pp. 410-433
    • Nickerson, R.S.1
  • 52
    • 0034203345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Null hypothesis significance testing: A review of an old and continuing controversy
    • Nickerson, R. S. (2000). Null hypothesis significance testing: A review of an old and continuing controversy. Psychological Methods, 5, 241-301.
    • (2000) Psychological Methods , vol.5 , pp. 241-301
    • Nickerson, R.S.1
  • 54
    • 33646820140 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When the sum of our expectations fails us: The exchange paradox
    • Norton, J. D. (1998). When the sum of our expectations fails us: The exchange paradox. Pacific Philosophical Quarterly, 79, 34-58.
    • (1998) Pacific Philosophical Quarterly , vol.79 , pp. 34-58
    • Norton, J.D.1
  • 55
    • 84972539565 scopus 로고
    • A Lewis Carroll pillow problem: Probability of an obtuse triangle
    • Portnoy, S. (1994). A Lewis Carroll pillow problem: Probability of an obtuse triangle. Statistical Science, 9, 279-284.
    • (1994) Statistical Science , vol.9 , pp. 279-284
    • Portnoy, S.1
  • 56
    • 0002152818 scopus 로고
    • Escape from paradox
    • Rapoport, A. (1967). Escape from paradox. Scientific American, 217(1), 50-56.
    • (1967) Scientific American , vol.217 , Issue.1 , pp. 50-56
    • Rapoport, A.1
  • 57
    • 2342607354 scopus 로고
    • A note on the two envelopes problem
    • Rawling, P. (1994). A note on the two envelopes problem. Theory and Decision, 36, 97-102.
    • (1994) Theory and Decision , vol.36 , pp. 97-102
    • Rawling, P.1
  • 58
    • 2342563871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perspectives on a pair of envelopes
    • Rawling, P. (1997). Perspectives on a pair of envelopes. Theory and Decision, 43, 253-277.
    • (1997) Theory and Decision , vol.43 , pp. 253-277
    • Rawling, P.1
  • 60
    • 33646775766 scopus 로고
    • Comment on Christensen and Utts (1992)
    • Ross, S. M. (1994). Comment on Christensen and Utts (1992). The American Statistician, 48, 267.
    • (1994) The American Statistician , vol.48 , pp. 267
    • Ross, S.M.1
  • 63
    • 33646766871 scopus 로고
    • Monty's revenge
    • Readers' Reflections
    • Shaughnessy, J. M., & Dick, T. (1992). Monty's revenge. In Readers' Reflections, The Mathematics Teacher, 85(2), 91.
    • (1992) The Mathematics Teacher , vol.85 , Issue.2 , pp. 91
    • Shaughnessy, J.M.1    Dick, T.2
  • 64
    • 0024688853 scopus 로고
    • Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the "problem of three prisoners"
    • Shimojo, S., & Ichikawa, S. (1989). Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the "problem of three prisoners". Cognition, 32, 1-24.
    • (1989) Cognition , vol.32 , pp. 1-24
    • Shimojo, S.1    Ichikawa, S.2
  • 69
    • 0141604761 scopus 로고
    • Ask Marilyn
    • vos Savant, M. (1991). Ask Marilyn. Parade Magazine, February 17, p. 12.
    • (1991) Parade Magazine , vol.FEBRUARY 17 , pp. 12
    • Vos Savant, M.1
  • 70
    • 21244442759 scopus 로고
    • Discussion of a paper by B. M. Hill
    • J. M. Bernardo, M. H. Degroot, D. V. Lindley, & A. F. M. Smith (Eds.). Oxford: Clarendon Press
    • Zabell, S. L. (1988a). Discussion of a paper by B. M. Hill. In J. M. Bernardo, M. H. Degroot, D. V. Lindley, & A. F. M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics 3: Proceedings of the Third Valencia International Meeting (pp. 233-236). Oxford: Clarendon Press.
    • (1988) Bayesian Statistics 3: Proceedings of the Third Valencia International Meeting , pp. 233-236
    • Zabell, S.L.1
  • 71
    • 0042060658 scopus 로고
    • Symmetry and its discontents
    • B. Skyrms & W. L. Harper (Eds.). Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers
    • Zabell, S. L. (1988b). Symmetry and its discontents. In B. Skyrms & W. L. Harper (Eds.), Causation, chance, and credence (Vol. I, pp. 155-190). Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
    • (1988) Causation, Chance, and Credence , vol.1 , pp. 155-190
    • Zabell, S.L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.