Stochastic forcing of the North Atlantic wind-driven ocean circulation. Part II: An analysis of the dynamical ocean response using generalized stability theory

Journal of Physical Oceanography

Volumn 36, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 316-334

  Chhak, Kettyah C ^a   Moore, Andrew M ^a   Milliff, Ralph F ^b   Branstator, Grant ^c   Holland, William R ^c   Fisher, Michael ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b Colorado Research Associates ^*  (United States)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^d EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BATHYMETRY; OCEAN ENGINEERING; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; RANDOM PROCESSES; THEOREM PROVING; WIND STRESS;

DYNAMIC OCEAN RESPONSE; STOCHASTIC FORCING;

OCEANOGRAPHY;

EIGENVALUE; ROSSBY WAVE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; STOCHASTICITY; WIND FORCING; WIND STRESS; WIND-DRIVEN CIRCULATION;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 33646401088     PISSN: 00223670     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JPO2853.1     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Aiken, C. M., A. M. Moore, and J. H. Middleton, 2002: Nonnormality of coastal ocean flows around obstacles, and their response to stochastic forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 2955-2974.
2. Aiken, C. M., A. M. Moore, and J. H. Middleton, 2003: Nonnormal perturbation growth in idealised island and headland wakes. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 37, 171-195.
3. Bai, Z., M. Fahey, and G. Golub, 1995: Some large matrix computation problems. J. Comput. Appl. Math., 74, 71-89.
4. Blumental, M. B., 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784.
5. Buizza, R., 1995: Optimal perturbation time evolution and sensitivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1705-1738.
6. Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
7. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
8. Buizza, R., J. Tribbia, F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus, 45A, 388-407.
9. Chen, Y. Q., D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E. S. Sarachik, 1997: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model using singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.
10. Chhak, K., A. M. Moore, R. F. Milliff, G. Branstator, W. R. Holland, and M. Fisher, 2006: Stochastic forcing of the North Atlantic wind-driven ocean circulation. Part I: A diagnostic analysis of the ocean response to stochastic forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 36, 300-315.
11. DelSole, T. M., 1996: Can quasigeostrophic turbulence be modeled stochastically? J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1617-1633.
12. DelSole, T. M., 1999: Stochastic models of shear-flow turbulence with enstrophy transfer to subgrid scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3692-3703.
13. DelSole, T. M., 2004: Stochastic models of quasigeostrophic turbulence. Surv. Geophys., 25, 107-149.
14. DelSole, T. M., and A. Y. Hou, 1999: Empirical stochastic models for the dominant climate statistics of a general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2533-2545.
15. Dobrovolski, S. G., 2000: Stochastic Climate Theory. Springer, 282 pp.
16. Eckert, C., 1999: On predictability limits of ENSO. A study performed with a simplified model of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. Examensarbeit, No. 55, 76 pp. [Available from Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse, 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.]
17. Ehrendorfer, M., and J. J. Tribbia, 1997: Optimal prediction of forecast error covariances through singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 286-313.
18. Errico, R. M., T. Vukićecić, and K. Raeder, 1993: Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model. Tellus, 45A, 462-477.
19. Fan, Y., 1998: ENSO prediction and predictability in an intermediate coupled model. Ph.D. thesis, University of Oxford, 241 pp.
20. Fan, Y., M. R. Allen, D. L. T. Anderson, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2000: How predictability depends on the nature of uncertainty in initial conditions in a coupled model of ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 3298-3313.
21. Farrell, B. F., 1982a: The initial growth of disturbances in a baroclinic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1663-1686.
22. Farrell, B. F., 1982b: Pulse asymptotics of the Charney baroclinic instability problem. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 507-517.
23. Farrell, B. F., 1984: Modal and non-modal baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 668-673.
24. Farrell, B. F., 1985: Transient growth of damped baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 2718-2727.
25. Farrell, B. F., 1988: Optimal excitation of neutral Rossby waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 163-172.
26. Farrell, B. F., 1989: Optimal excitation of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1193-1206.
27. Farrell, B. F., 1990: Small error dynamics and the predictability of atmospheric flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2409-2416.
28. Farrell, B. F., and P. Ioannou, 1993: Stochastic dynamics of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 4044-4057.
29. Farrell, B. F., and P. Ioannou, 1995: Stochastic dynamics of the midlatitude atmospheric jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1642-1656.
30. Farrell, B. F., and P. Ioannou, 1996a: Generalized stability theory. Part I: Autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2025-2039.
31. Farrell, B. F., and P. Ioannou, 1996b: Generalized stability theory. Part II: Nonautonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2041-2053.
32. Farrell, B. F., and P. Ioannou, 1999: Perturbation growth and structure in time-dependent flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3622-3639.
33. Ferranti, L., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, and E. Klinker, 1990: Tropical-extratropical interaction with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2177-2199.
34. Gardiner, C. W., 1985: Handbook of Stochastic Methods. Springer-Verlag, 442 pp.
35. Glover, K., 1984: All optimal Hankel-norm approximations of linear multivariable systems and their error bounds. Int. J. Control, 39, 1115-1193.
36. Golub, G., and C. van Loan, 1989: Matrix Computations. The Johns Hopkins University Press, 642 pp.
37. Hartmann, D. L., R. Buizza, and T. N. Palmer, 1995: Singular vectors: The effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3885-3894.
38. Johnson, S., 1999: Markov model studies of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, 131 pp.
39. Kleeman, R., and A. M. Moore, 1997: A theory for the limitations of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753-767.
40. Kleeman, R., and A. M. Moore, 1999: A new method for determining the reliability of dynamical ENSO predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 694-705.
41. Kutzbach, J. E., 1967: Empirical eigenvectors of sea-level pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation complexes over North America. J. Appl. Meteor., 6, 791-802.
42. Lacarra, J. F., and O. Talagrand, 1988: Short-range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus, 40A, 81-95.
43. Lorenz, E. N., 1965: A study of the predictability of 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 321-333.
44. Milliff, R. F., W. G. Large, W. R. Holland, and J. C. McWilliams, 1996: The general circulation responses of high-resolution North Atlantic ocean models to synthetic scatterometer winds. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 26, 1747-1768.
45. Milliff, R. F., W. G. Large, J. Morzel, G. Danabasoglu, and T. Chin, 1999: Ocean general circulation model sensitivity to forcing from scatterometer winds. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 11 337-11 358.
46. Milliff, R. F., J. Morzel, D. Chelton, and M. H. Freilich, 2004: Wind stress curl and wind stress divergence biases from rain effects on QSCAT surface wind retrievals. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 1216-1231.
47. Molteni, F., R. Mureau, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite time instability of the northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298.
48. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-120.
49. Moore, A. M., 1999: Wind-induced variability of ocean gyres. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 29, 335-364.
50. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1996: The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1405-1446.
51. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1997a: The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part I. Thermodynamics, energetics and error growth. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 953-981.
52. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1997b: The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part II: Sensitivity studies and dynamical significance. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 983-1006.
53. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1998: Skill assessment for ENSO using ensemble prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 557-584.
54. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1999a: The nonnormal nature of El Niño and intraseasonal variability. J. Climate, 12, 2965-2982.
55. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1999b: Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 12, 1199-1220.
56. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 2001: The differences between the optimal perturbations of coupled models of ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 138-163.
57. Moore, A. M., C. L. Perez, and J. Zavala-Garay, 2002: A non-normal view of the wind-driven ocean circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 2681-2705.
58. Moore, A. M., J. Vialard, A. T. Weaver, D. L. T. Anderson, R. Kleeman, and J. R. Johnson, 2003: The role of air-sea interaction in controlling the optimal perturbations of low-frequency tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. J. Climate, 16, 951-962.
59. Moore, B., 1981: Principal component analysis in linear systems: Controllability, observability, and model reduction. IEEE Trans. Auto. Control, AC-26, 17-31.
60. Mureau, R., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 299-323.
61. Palmer, T., 1996: Predictability of the atmosphere and oceans: From days to decades. Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability, D. L. T. Anderson and J. Willebrand, Eds., Springer, 83-155.
62. Pedlosky, J., 1987: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Springer-Verlag, 710 pp.
63. Penland, C., 1989: Random forcing and forecasting using principal oscillation pattern analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2165-2185.
64. Penland, C., 1996: A stochastic model of IndoPacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Physica D, 98, 534-558.
65. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995a: Error and sensitivity analysis of geophysical eigensystems. J. Climate, 8, 1988-1998.
66. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995b: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
67. Tang, Y., R. Kleeman, and A. Moore, 2005: Reliability of ENSO dynamical predictions. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1770-1791.
68. Thompson, C. J., 1998: Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 537-557.
69. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.
70. Willebrand, J., S. G. H. Philander, and R. C. Pacanowski, 1980: The oceanic response to large-scale atmospheric disturbances. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 10, 411-429.
71. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512-528.
72. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1997a: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2043-2056.
73. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and T. N. Palmer, 1997b: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part II: Optimal growth and forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2057-2073.
74. Xue, Y., A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 1999: Impact of sea level on predictability of ENSO: A study with Markov models. Preprints, Second Hayes Symp. on Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability - The 1997/ 1998 ENSO Cycle, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81-84.
75. Zavala-Garay, J., A. M. Moore, C. L. Perez, and R. Kleeman, 2003: The response of a coupled model of ENSO to observed estimates of stochastic forcing. J. Climate, 16, 2827-2842.