Skill assessment for ENSO using ensemble prediction

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 124, Issue 546, 1998, Pages 557-584

  Moore, A M ^a,c   Kleeman, R ^b  

^a NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

El Ni o; Ensemble prediction; Optimal perturbations; Predictability

Indexed keywords

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECAST SKILL;

EID: 0031779872     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.54608     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Batchelor, G. K. 1953 The theory of homogenous turbulence, Cambridge University Press
2. Buizza, R., Tribbia, J., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. N. 1993 Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus, 45A, 388-407
3. Epstein, E. S. 1969 Stochastic dynamic predictions. Tellus, 21, 739-759
4. Farrell, B. F. 1982 The initial growth of disturbances in baroclinic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1663-1686 1990 Small error dynamics and the predictability of flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2409-2416
5. Farrell, B. F. 1982 The initial growth of disturbances in baroclinic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1663-1686 1990 Small error dynamics and the predictability of flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2409-2416
6. Farrell, B. F. and Ioannou, P. J. 1993a Stochastic forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. Phys. Fluids, 5, 2600-2609 1993b Stochastic dynamics of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 4044-4057 1993c Stochastic forcing of perturbation variance in unbounded shear and deformation flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 200-211 1996 Generalised stability theory. Part II: Non-autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2041-2053.
7. Farrell, B. F. and Ioannou, P. J. 1993a Stochastic forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. Phys. Fluids, 5, 2600-2609 1993b Stochastic dynamics of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 4044-4057 1993c Stochastic forcing of perturbation variance in unbounded shear and deformation flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 200-211 1996 Generalised stability theory. Part II: Non-autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2041-2053.
8. Farrell, B. F. and Ioannou, P. J. 1993a Stochastic forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. Phys. Fluids, 5, 2600-2609 1993b Stochastic dynamics of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 4044-4057 1993c Stochastic forcing of perturbation variance in unbounded shear and deformation flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 200-211 1996 Generalised stability theory. Part II: Non-autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2041-2053.
9. Farrell, B. F. and Ioannou, P. J. 1993a Stochastic forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. Phys. Fluids, 5, 2600-2609 1993b Stochastic dynamics of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 4044-4057 1993c Stochastic forcing of perturbation variance in unbounded shear and deformation flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 200-211 1996 Generalised stability theory. Part II: Non-autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2041-2053.
10. Frederiksen, J. C. and Bell, R. C. 1988 'Simulations and closure theory for interacting barotropic waves' in Computational Techniques and Applications CTAC 87, Noye and Fletcher Eds., North Holland
11. Gleeson, T. A. 1970 Statistical-dynamical predictions. J. Appl. Meteorol., 9, 333-344
12. Gill, A. E. 1980 Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 106, 447-462
13. Hirst, A. C. 1986 Unstable and damped equatorial modes in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 606-630
14. Hoffman, R. N. and Kalnay, E. 1983 Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting. Tellus, 35A, 100-118
15. Ioannou, P. J. 1995 Nonnormality increases variance. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1155-1158
16. Kleeman, R. 1993 On the dependence of hindcast skill on ocean thermodynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 2012-2033 1994 'Forecasts of tropical Pacific SST using a low order coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model' in NOAA Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, Washington, DC
17. Kleeman, R. 1993 On the dependence of hindcast skill on ocean thermodynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 2012-2033 1994 'Forecasts of tropical Pacific SST using a low order coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model' in NOAA Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, Washington, DC
18. Kleeman, R. and Moore, A. M. 1997 A theory for the limitations of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753-767
19. Kleeman, R. and Power, S. B. 1994 Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise. Tellus, 46A, 529-540
20. Kleeman, R., Moore, A. M. and Smith, N. R. 1995 Assimilation of sub-surface thermal data into an intermediate tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3103-3113
21. Kraichnan, R. H. 1959 The structure of isotropic turbulence at very high Reynolds numbers. J. Fluid Mech., 5, 497-543
22. Legler, D. M. and O'Brien, J. J. 1984 The atlas of tropical pacific wind stress climatology 1971-1980, Florida State University
23. Leith, C. E. 1974 Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev., 102, 409-418
24. Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996 The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol Soc., 122, 73-119
25. Moore, A. M. and Kleeman, R. 1996 The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1405-1446 1997a The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part I: Thermodynamics, energetics and error growth. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 953-981 1997b The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part II: Sensitivity studies and dynamical interpretation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 983-1006
26. Moore, A. M. and Kleeman, R. 1996 The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1405-1446 1997a The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part I: Thermodynamics, energetics and error growth. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 953-981 1997b The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part II: Sensitivity studies and dynamical interpretation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 983-1006
27. Moore, A. M. and Kleeman, R. 1996 The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1405-1446 1997a The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part I: Thermodynamics, energetics and error growth. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 953-981 1997b The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part II: Sensitivity studies and dynamical interpretation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 983-1006
28. Mureau, R., Molteni, F. and Palmer, T. N. 1993 Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 119, 299-323
29. Murphy, J. M. 1988 The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 114, 463-493
30. Noble, B. 1969 Applied linear algebra, Prentice-Hall, Inc.
31. Palmer, T. N. 1993 Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 49-65
32. Palmer, T. N. and Anderson, D. L. T. 1994 The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 755-793
33. Sommerfeld, A. 1964 'Thermodynamics and statistical mechanics' in Lectures on Theoretical Physics, V, Academic Press
34. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1993 Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center. Practical aspects. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-2330 1995 'Ensemble forecasting at NCEP' in Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, Reading, England, 4-8 September, 1995
35. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E. 1993 Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center. Practical aspects. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 74, 2317-2330 1995 'Ensemble forecasting at NCEP' in Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, Reading, England, 4-8 September, 1995
36. Tracton, M. S. and Kalnay, E. 1993 Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical Aspects. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 379-398
37. Webster, P. J. 1995 The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 56, 33-55