Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 26, Issue 7-8, 2006, Pages 687-711

  Lenton, T M ^a,b   Williamson, M S ^a,b,d   Edwards, N R ^c   Marsh, R ^a,d   Price, A R ^e   Ridgwell, A J ^f   Shepherd, J G ^a,d   Cox, S J ^e  

^a TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^c OPEN UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^d NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON CYCLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELING;

EID: 33645980646     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0109-9     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Adams B, White A, Lenton TM (2004) An analysis of some diverse approaches to modelling net primary productivity. Ecol Modell 177:353-391
2. Annan JD, Hargreaves JC, Edwards NR, Marsh R (2005) Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Modell 8:135-154
3. 3. Global Biogeochem Cycles 12:259-276
4. Batjes NH (1995) A homogenized soil data file for global environmental research: A subset of FAO, ISRIC and NRCS profiles (version 1.0). Working Paper and Preprint 95/10b, International Soil Reference and Information Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands
5. Beltran C, Edwards NR, Haurie A, Vial J-P, Zachary DS (2005) Oracle-based optimisation applied to climate model calibration. Environ Modell Assess, DOI: 10.1007/s10666-005-9024-4
6. 2 2 and climate change using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model. Global Biogeochem Cycles 16:1084
7. Briegleb BP, Minnis P, Ramanathan V, Harrison E (1986) Comparison of regional clear-sky albedos inferred from satellite observations and model comparisons. J Climatol Appl Meterol 25:214-226
8. Caldeira K, Wickett ME (2003) Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425:365
9. 2. Global Biogeochem Cycles 19:GB4027
10. Claussen M, Mysak L, Weaver A, Crucifix M, Fichefet T, Loutre M, Weber S, Alcamo J, Alexeev V, Berger A, Calov R, Ganopolski A, Goosse H, Lohmann G, Lunkeit F, Mokhov I, Petoukhov V, Stone P, Wang Z (2002) Earth system models of intermediate complexity: Closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models. Clim Dyn 18:579-586
11. Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408(6813):184-187
12. 2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Change Biol 7:357-373
13. Edwards NR, Marsh R (2005) Uncertainities due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model. Clim Dyn 24:415-433
14. Essery R, Best M, Cox P (2001) MOSES 2.2 technical documentation. Tech Rep 30, Hadley Centre
15. Fanning AG, Weaver AJ (1996) An atmospheric energy-moisture model: climatology, interpentadal climate change and coupling to an ocean general circulation model. J Geophys Res 101:15111-15128
16. Fichefet T, Poncin C, Goosse H, Huybrechts P, Janssens I, Le Treut H (2003) Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 30:1911
17. Friedlingstein P, Bopp L, Ciais P, Dufresne J-L, Fairhead L, LeTreut H, Monfray P, Orr J (2001) Positive feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle. Geophys Res Lett 28(8):1543-1546
18. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, Bloh Wv, Brovkin V, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Govindasamy B, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler K-G, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Thompson S, Weaver A, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. J Clim (in press)
19. Fung IY, Doney SC, Lindsay K, John J (2005) Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate. Proc Nat Acad Sci 32(102):11201-11206
20. Ganachaud A, Wunsch C (2000) Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data. Nature 408:453-457
21. Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Raper SCB (2004) Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet. Nature 428:616
22. Hansen JE (2005) A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? Clim Change 68:269-279
23. Hargreaves JC, Annan JD, Edwards NR, Marsh R (2004) An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter. Clim Dyn 23:745-760
24. 2 emissions path using a simplified structural integrated assessment model (SIAM). Clim Change 37:345-386
25. Hasselmann K, Latif M, Hooss G, Azar C, Edenhofer O, Jaeger CC, Johannessen OM, Kemfert C, Welp M, Wokaun A (2003) The challenge of long-term climate change. Science 302:1923-1925
26. Hibler WD (1979) A dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model. J Phys Oceanogr 9:815-846
27. Houghton RA, Hackler JL (2002) Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land-use changes. Trends: A compendium of data on global change. Tech. rep., Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA
28. Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ (1990) Climate change. The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
29. Houghton JT, Filho LGM, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (1995) Climate change 1995. The science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
30. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
31. 2 sources and sinks. Tellus B 53B:345-363
32. Huybrechts P, Wolde JD (1999) The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J Clim 12:2169-2188
33. Johannessen OM, Khvorostovsky K, Miles MW, Bobylev LP (2005) Recent ice-sheet growth in the interior of Greenland. Science 310:1013-1016
34. Jones DR, Schonlau M, Welch WJ (1998) Efficient global optimization of expensive black-box functions. J Glob Optim 13(4):455-492
35. 2 and sulphate aerosols. Geophys Res Lett 30:1479
36. 2. Science 284:464-467
37. Joos F, Prentice IC, Sitch S, Meyer R, Hooss G, Plattner G-K, Gerber S, Hasselmann K (2001) Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Global Biogeochem Cycles 15:891-907
38. Keane AJ (2003) Wing optimization using design of experiment, response surface and data fusion methods. J Aircr 40(4):741-750
39. 2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. Tech. rep., Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA
40. Killworth PD (1996) Time interpolation of forcing fields in ocean models. J Phys Oceanogr 26:126-143
41. Kirschbaum MU (1995) The temperature dependence of soil organic matter decomposition, and the effect of global warming on soil organic storage. Soil Biol Biochem 27(6):753-760
42. Knutti R, Stocker TF (2002) Limited predictability of the future thermohaline circulation close to an instability threshold. J Clim 15:179-186
43. Lenton TM (2000) Land and ocean carbon cycle feedback effects on global warming in a simple Earth system model. Tellus 52B:1159-1188
44. Lenton TM (2006) Climate change to the end of the millennium. Clim Change (in press)
45. Lenton TM, Cannell MGR (2002) Mitigating the rate and extent of global warming. Clim Change 52:255-262
46. Lenton TM, Huntingford C (2003) Global terrestrial carbon storage and uncertainties in its temperature sensitivity examined with a simple model. Glob Change Biol 9:1333-1352
47. Lloyd J, Taylor JA (1994) On the temperature-dependence of soil respiration. Funct Ecol 8(3):315-323
48. Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1994) Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J Clim 7:5-23
49. 2 emissions. Trends: A compendium of data on global change. Tech. rep., Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA
50. Matthews E (1985) Atlas of archived vegetation, land use, and seasonal albedo data sets. NASA Technical Memorandum 86199, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York
51. Matthews HD, Eby M, Weaver AJ, Hawkins BJ (2005) Primary productivity control of simulated carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14708
52. Meehl GA, Washington WM, Collins WD, Alblaster JM, Hu A, Buja LE, Strand WG, Teng H (2005) How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science 307:1769-1772
53. Miller L, Douglas BC (2004) Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise. Nature 428:406-409
54. Mitrovica JX, Tamislea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA (2001) Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of sea-level change. Nature 409:1026-1029
55. Myers RH, Montgomery DC (1995) Response surface methodology: Process and product optimization using design of experiments. Wiley, New York
56. Olson JS, Watts JA, Allison LJ (1985) Major world ecosystem complexes ranked by carbon in live vegetation. Tech. Rep. NDP-017, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
57. Parkinson C (2002) Trends in the length of the southern ocean sea-ice season, 1979-99. Ann Glaciol 34(1):435-440
58. Parkinson C, Cavalieri D, Gloersen P, Zwally H, Comiso J (1999) Arctic sea ice extents, areas and trends, 1978-1996. J Geophys Res (Oceans) 104(C9):20837-20856
59. Peixoto JP, Oort AH (1991) Physics of climate. 520pp. AIP Press
60. Plattner G-K, Joos F, Stocker TF, Marchal O (2001) Feedback mechanisms and sensitivities of ocean carbon uptake under global warming. Tellus 53B:564-592
61. Price AR, Xue G, Yool A, Lunt DJ, Valdes PJ, Lenton TM, Wason JL, Pound GE, Cox SJ, the GENIE team (2006) Optimisation of integrated earth system model components using grid-enabled data management and computation. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience (in press)
62. Rahmstorf S, Ganopolski A (1999) Long term global warming scenarios computed with an efficient coupled climate model. Clim Change 43:353-367
63. Ridgwell AJ (2001) Glacial-interglacial perturbations in the global carbon cycle. Ph.D. thesis, University of East Anglia
64. Rignot E, Thomas RH (2002) Mass balance of polar ice sheets. Science 297:1502-1506
65. 2. Science 305:367-371
66. Sarmiento JL, Hughes TMC, Stouffer RJ, Manabe S (1998) Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming. Nature 393:245-249
67. Semtner AJ (1976) A model for the thermodynamic growth of sea ice in numerical investigations of climate. J Phys Oceanogr 6:379-389
68. Statnikov RB, Matuzov JB (1995) Multicriteria optimization and engineering. Chapman and Hall, New York
69. 2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation. Nature 388:862-865
70. Stroeve JC, Serreze MC, Fetterer F, Arbetter T, Meier W, Maslanik J, Knowles K (2005) Tracking the Arctic's shrinking ice cover: Another extreme September minimum in 2004. Geophys Res Lett 32:L04501
71. 2, and seasonal biological and temperature effects. Deep-Sea Res II 49:1601-1622
72. 2 -fertilized vegetation on future global climate and carbon dynamics. Geophys Res Lett 31:L23211
73. Toggweiler JR, Samuels B (1998) On the ocean's large-scale circulation near the limit of no vertical mixing. J Phys Oceanogr 28(9):1832-1852
74. Weaver AJ, Eby M, Weibe EC, Bitz CM, Duffy PB, Ewen TL, Fanning AF, Holland MM, MacFadyen A, Matthews HD, Meissner KJ, Saenko O, Schmittner A, Wang H, Yoshimori M (2001) The UVic earth system climate model: Model description, climatology, and applications to past, present and future climates. Atmos-Ocean 39(4):361-428
75. Williamson MS, Lenton TM, Shepherd JG, Edwards NR (2006) An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for fast earth system modelling. Tyndall Centre Working Paper 83
76. Yuret D, Maza M (1993) Dynamic hill climbing: Overcoming the limitations of optimization techniques. In: Proceedings of the second Turkish symposium on artificial intelligence and neural networks, pp 254-260
77. Zeng N, Qian H, Munoz E, Iacono R (2004) How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming. Geophys Res Lett 31:L20203