Sensitivity of African biomes to changes in the precipitation regime

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Volumn 15, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 258-270

  Hély, Christelle ^a   Bremond, Laurent ^a   Alleaume, Samuel ^a   Smith, Benjamin ^b   Sykes, Martin T ^b   Guiot, Joël ^a  

^a CEREGE   (France)

^b LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Climate change; DGVM; Leaf area index; Plant functional types; Pollen; Rainfall; Seasonality; Sensitivity analysis; Vegetation modelling; White's classification map

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; LEAF AREA INDEX; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; REMOTE SENSING; VEGETATION;

AFRICA;

EID: 33645776844     PISSN: 1466822X     EISSN: 14668238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2006.00235.x     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. African Pollen Database (1996) http://medias.obs-mip.fr/apd/. Medias-France.
2. Agwu, O.C. (1986) History of climate and vegetation of E-Central Nigeria as deduced from pollen analysis: Preliminary investigation. pp. 5-8. INQUIA. ASEQUA Bulletin de Liaison.
3. Bachelet, D., Neilson, R.P., Hickler, T., Drapek, R.J., Lenihan, J.M., Sykes, M.T., Smith, B., Sitch, S. & Thonicke, K. (2003) Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 17, art. 1045, doi: 10.1029/2001GB001508.
4. Badeck, F.W., Lischke, H., Bugmann, H., Hickler, T., Honninger, K., Lasch, P., Lexer, M.J., Mouillot, F., Schaber, J. & Smith, B. (2001) Tree species composition in European pristine forests: Comparison of stand data to model predictions. Climatic Change, 51, 307-347.
5. Bonan, G.B., Levis, S., Sitch, S., Vertenstein, M. & Oleson, K.W. (2003) A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics. Global Change Biology, 9, 1543-1566.
6. 2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas. Global Change Biology, 9, 973-982.
7. Bond, W.J., Midgley, G.F. & Woodward, F.I. (2003b) What controls South African vegetation - climate or fire? South African Journal of Botany, 69, 79-91.
8. Brenac, P. (1987) Evolution de la végétation et du climat dans l'Ouest-Cameroun entre 25,000 et 11,000 ans BP, pp. 91 -103. Association des Palynologues de langue Française. Institut Français de Pondichéry, Bordeaux.
9. 2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years. Global Change Biology, 10, 1253-1266.
10. Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C. & Petoukhov, V. (2003) Climate change in Northern Africa: The past is not the future. Climatic Change, 57, 99-118.
11. 2 and climate change: Results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology, 7, 357-373.
12. Desanker, P.V. (1996) Development of a moimbo woodland dynamics model in Zambezian African using Malawi as a case study. Climatic Change, 34, 279-288.
13. Desanker, P.V., Frost, P.G.H., Justice, C.O. & Scholes, R.J. (1997) The Miombo Network: Framework for a terrestrial transect study of land-use and land-cover change in the Miombo ecosystems of Central Africa: Conclusion of the Miombo Network Workshop, 41. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm.
14. Dixon, R.K., Perry, J.A., Vanderklein, E.L. & Hiol, F.H. (1996) Vulnerability of forest resources to global climate change: Case study of Cameroon and Ghana. Climate Research, 6, 127-133.
15. 2? Annual Review of Plant Physiology and Plant Molecular Biology, 48, 609-639.
16. Elenga, H. (1992) Végétation et climat du congo depuis 24,000 ans B. P.: Analyse palynologique de séquences sédimentaires du Pays Bateke et du littoral. UniversitéAix-Marseille III, Marseille.
17. Elenga, H., Schwartz, D. & Vincens, A. (1994) Pollen evidence of Late Quaternary vegetation and inferred climate changes in Congo. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 109, 345 -356.
18. Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S. & Haxeltine, A. (1996) An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10, 603-628.
19. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2000) Global forest resources assessment 2000, 140. FAO, Rome.
20. Friend, A.D., Stevens, A.K., Knox, R.G. & Cannell, M.G.R. (1997) A process-based, terrestrial biosphere model of ecosystem dynamics (Hybrid v3.0). Ecological Modelling, 95, 249-287.
21. Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W. & Sitch, S. (2004) Terrestrial vegetation and water balance - hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology, 286, 249-270.
22. Gonzalez, P. (2001) Desertification and a shift of forest species in the West African Sahel. Climate Research, 17, 217-228.
23. Gordon, W.S. & Famiglietti, J.S. (2004) Response of the water balance to climate change in the United States over the 20th and 21st centuries: Results from the VEMAP Phase 2 model intercomparisons. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 18, doi:10.1025/800.GB/00205e.
24. Gritti, E., Smith, B. & Sykes, M.T. (2006) Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 145-157.
25. Haxeltine, A. & Prentice, I.C. (1996a) BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10, 693-709.
26. Haxeltine, A. & Prentice, I.C. (1996b) A general model for the light-use efficiency of primary production. Functional Ecology, 10, 551-561.
27. Hickler, T., Smith, B., Sykes, M.T., Davis, M.B., Sugita, S. & Walker, K. (2004) Using a generalized vegetation model to simulate vegetation dynamics in northeastern USA. Ecology, 85, 519-530.
28. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001a) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, vol. 2. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
29. Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001b) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis, vol. 1. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
30. Jolly, D., Bonnefille, R., Burq, S. & Roux, M. (1996) Représentation pollinque de la forêt dense humide du Gabon, tests statistiques. Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences, 322, 63-70.
31. Jolly, D., Prentice, I.C., Bonnefille, R., Ballouche, A., Bengo, M., Brenac, P., Buchet, G., Burney, D., Cazet, J.-P., Cheddadi, R., Edorh, T., Elenga, H., Elmoutaki, S., Guiot, J., Laarif, F., Lamb, H., Lezine, A.-M., Maley, J., Mbenza, M., Peyron, O., Reille, M., Reynaud-Farrera, I., Riollet, G., Ritchie, J.C., Roche, E., Scott, L., Ssemmanda, I., Straka, H., Umer, M., Van Campo, E., Vilimumbalo, S., Vincens, A. & Waller, M. (1998) Biome reconstruction from pollen and plant macrofossil data for Africa and the Arabian peninsula at 0 and 6000 years. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 1007-1027.
32. Joubert, A.M. & Hewitson, B.C. (1997) Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models. Progress in Physical Geography, 21, 51-78.
33. Kaplan, J.O., Bigelow, N.H., Prentice, I.C., Harrison, S.P., Bartlein, P.J., Christensen, T.R., Cramer, W., Matveyeva, N.V., McGuire, A.D., Murray, D.F., Razzhivin, V.Y., Smith, B., Walker, D.A., Anderson, P.M., Andreey, A.A., Brubaker, L.B., Edwards, M.E. & Lozhkin, A.V. (2003) Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 8171.
34. Kittel, T.G.F., Steffen, W.L. & Chapin, F.S. III (2000) Global and regional modelling of Arctic-boreal vegetation distribution and its sensitivity to altered forcing. Global Change Biology, 6, 1-18.
35. Koca, D., Smith, B. & Sykes, M.T. (in press) Modelling regional climate change effects on Swedish ecosystems. Climatic Change.
36. 2 concentrations - has its importance been Underestimated? Plant Cell and Environment, 14, 729-739.
37. Lucht, W., Prentice, I.C., Myneni, R.B., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Cramer, W., Bousquet, P., Buermann, W. & Smith, B. (2002) Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and Pinatubo effect. Science, 296, 1687-1689.
38. Maley, J. (1981) Etudes palynologiques dans le bassin du Tchad et paléoclimatologie de l'Afrique nord-tropicale de 30,000 ans à l'époque actuelle. Universitédes Sciences et Techniques du Languedoc, Montpellier.
39. Maynard, K. & Royer, J.-F. (2004) Effects of 'realistic' land-cover change on a greenhouse-warmed African climate. Climate Dynamics, 22, 343-358.
40. Monserud, R.A. & Leemans, R. (1992) Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modelling, 62, 275-293.
41. Morales, P., Sykes, M.T., Prentice, I.C., Smith, P., Smith, B. & members, A. (in press) Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes. Global Change Biology, 11, 1-23.
42. Myneni, R.B., Nemani, R.R. & Running, S.W. (1997) Estimation of global leaf area index and absorped par using radiative transfer models. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 35, 1380-1393.
43. New, M., Lister, D., Hulme, M. & Makin, I. (2002) A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Research, 21, 1-25.
44. Olson, J.S. (1994) Global ecosystem framework. 1. Definitions. GPC94.1, USGS, Lenoir.
45. Penlap, E.K., Matulla, C., von Storch, H. & Kamga, F.M. (2004) Downscaling of GCM scenarios to assess precipitation changes in the little rainy season (March-June) in Cameroon. Climate Research, 26, 85-96.
46. Prentice, I.C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S.P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R.A. & Solomon, A.M. (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate [Special Paper]. Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117-134.
47. Ruosteenoja, K., Carter, T.R., Jylhä, K. & Tuomenvirta, H. (2003) Future climate in world regions: An intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. The Finnish Environment no. 644, Helsinki.
48. Scholes, R.J. (1997) Savanna. Vegetation of southern Africa (ed. by R.M. Cowling, D.M. Richardson & S.M. Pierce), pp. 258-277. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
49. Schröter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I.C., Araújo, M.B., Arnell, N.G., Bondeau, A., Bugmann, H., Carter, T., de la Vega-Leinert, A.C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J., Kankaapää, S., Klein, R.J.T., Metzger, M., Meyer, J., Mitchell, T., Lavorel, S., Linder, M., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Sabaté, S., Sánchez, A., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Smith, J., Smith, P., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K., Thuiller, W., Tuck, G., Zaehle, S. & Zierl, B. (in press) Ecosystem service supply and human vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science.
50. Semazzi, F.H.M. & Song, Y. (2001) A GCM study of climate change induced by deforestation in Africa. Climate Research, 17, 169-182.
51. Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I.C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J.O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K. & Venevsky, S. (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 9, 161-185.
52. Smith, B., Prentice, I.C. & Sykes, M.T. (2001) Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10, 621-637.
53. Thonicke, K., Venesky, S., Sitch, S. & Cramer, W. (2001) The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: Coupling fire into a dynamic global vegetation model. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10, 661-677.
54. Vincens, A., Dubois, M.A., Guillet, B., Achoundong, G., Buchet, G., Kamgang Kabeyene Beyala, V., de Namur, C. & Riera, B. (2000) Pollen-rain-vegetation relationships along a forest-savanna transect in southeastern Cameroon. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, 110, 191-208.
55. Vincens, A., Schwartz, D., Bertaux, J., Elenga, H. & de Namur, C. (1998) Late Holocene climatic changes in Western Equatorial Africa inferred from pollen from Lake Sinnda, southern Congo. Quaternary Research, 50, 34-45.
56. Wang, G., Eltahir, E.A.B., Foley, J.A., Pollard, D. & Levis, S. (2004) Decadal variability of rainfall in the Sahel: Results from the coupled GENESIS-IBIS atmosphere-biosphere mode. Climate Dynamics, 22, 625-637.
57. White, F. (1983) La végétation de l'Afrique. Orstom - Unesco, Presse de Copédith, Paris.
58. Woodward, F.I. & Lomas, M.R. (2004) Vegetation dynamics - simulating responses to climate change. Biological Review, 79, 643 -670.