Empirical mode reduction in a model of extratropical low-frequency variability

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 63, Issue 7, 2006, Pages 1859-1877

  Kondrashov, Dmitri ^a   Kravtsov, S ^a   Ghil, M ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; FLOW PATTERNS; MARKOV PROCESSES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OSCILLATIONS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SPECTRUM ANALYSIS;

EXTRATROPICAL LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS; NONLINEAR STOCHASTIC MODEL;

TROPICS;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; FLOW PATTERNS; MARKOV PROCESSES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OSCILLATIONS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SPECTRUM ANALYSIS; TROPICS;

ARCTIC OSCILLATION; BAROCLINIC MODE; CLIMATE VARIATION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC FLOW; SIMULATION;

EID: 33645103236     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS3719.1     Document Type: Article

References (87)

1. Branstator, G. W., 1987: A striking example of the atmosphere's leading traveling pattern. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2310-2323.
2. Branstator, G. W., 1992: The maintenance of low-frequency atmospheric anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 1924-1945.
3. Branstator, G. W., 1995: Organization of storm track anomalies by recurring low-frequency circulation anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 207-226.
4. Cheng, X. H., and J. M. Wallace, 1993: Analysis of the northern-hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2674-2696.
5. Coleman, T. F., and Y. Li, 1994: On the convergence of reflective Newton methods for large-scale nonlinear minimization subject to bounds. Math. Program., 67, 189-224.
6. Coleman, T. F., and Y. Li, 1996: An interior, trust region approach for nonlinear minimization subject to bounds. SIAM J. Optim., 6, 418-445.
7. Da Costa, E., and R. Vautard, 1997: A qualitative realistic low-order model of the extratropical low-frequency variability built from long records of potential vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1064-1084.
8. D'Andrea, F., 2002: Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem. Part II: Stationarity and stability of large-scale equilibria. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 1059-1073.
9. D'Andrea, F., and R. Vautard, 2001: Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem. Part I: A simplified model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1357-1374.
10. D'Andrea, F., and Coauthors, 1998: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 general circulation models in the period 1979-1988. Climate Dyn., 14, 285-325.
11. Deser, C., 2000: On the teleconnectivity of the "Arctic Oscillation." Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 779-782.
12. Dole, R. M., and N. D. Gordon, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation - Geographical distribution and regional persistence characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1567-1586.
13. Farrell, B. F., and P. J. Ioannou, 1993: Stochastic forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. Phys. Fluids, 5A, 2600-2609.
14. Farrell, B. F., and P. J. Ioannou, 1995: Stochastic dynamics of the midlatitude atmospheric jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1642-1656.
15. Franzke, C., A. J. Majda, and E. Vanden-Eijnden, 2005: Low-order stochastic mode reduction for a realistic barotropic model climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1722-1745.
16. Ghil, M., and S. Childress, 1987: Topics in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics: Atmospheric Dynamics, Dynamo Theory and Climate Dynamics. Springer-Verlag, 485 pp.
17. Ghil, M., and K. C. Mo, 1991: Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere and Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 752-779.
18. Ghil, M., and A. W. Robertson, 2000: Solving problems with GCMs: General circulation models and their role in the climate modeling hierarchy. General Circulation Model Development Past, Present and Future, D. Randall, Ed., Academic Press, 285-325.
19. Ghil, M., and A. W. Robertson, 2002: "Waves" vs "particles" in the atmosphere's phase space: A pathway to long-range forecasting? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99 (Suppl. 1), 2493-2500.
20. Ghil, M. Kimoto, and J. D. Neelin, 1991: Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences. Rev. Geophys., 29, (Suppl.: U.S. National Rep. to Int. Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, 1987-1990), 46-55.
21. Ghil, M. and Coauthors, 2002: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev. Geophys,, 40, 1003, doi:10.1029/2000GROO0092.
22. Gill, A. E., 1982: Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics. Academic Press, 662 pp.
23. Hannachi, A., 1997: Low-frequency variability in a GCM: Three-dimensional flow regimes and their dynamics. J. Climate, 10, 1357-1379.
24. Hannachi, A., and A. O'Neil, 2001: Atmospheric multiple equilibria and non-Gaussian behavior in model simulations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 939-958.
25. Holton, J. R., 2004: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 4th ed. Elsevier/Academic Press, 529 pp.
26. Hurrel, J. E., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269, 676-679.
27. Itoh, H., and M. Kimoto, 1999: Weather regimes, low-frequency oscillations, and principal patterns of variability: A perspective of extratropical low-frequency variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2684-2705.
28. Jin, F. F., and M. Ghil, 1990: Intraseasonal oscillations in the extratropics: Hopf bifurcation and topographic instabilities. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 3007-3022.
29. Johnson, S. D., D. S. Battisti, and E. S. Sarachik, 2000: Empirically derived Markov models and prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 3-17.
30. Keppenne, C. L., and M. Ghil, 1993: Adaptive filtering and prediction of noisy multivariate signals: An application to sub-annual variability in atmospheric angular momentum. Intl. J. Bifurcation Chaos, 3, 625-634.
31. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993a: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part I: Methodology and hemispheric regimes, J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2625-2643.
32. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993b: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part II: Sectorial regimes and preferred transitions. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2645 2673.
33. Kondrashov, D., K. Ide, and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred transition paths in a three-level quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 568-587.
34. Kondrashov, D., S. Kravtsov, and M, Ghil, 2005: A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models. J. Climate, 18, 4425-4444.
35. Koo, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2002: Multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere's zonal-mean flow. J. Geophys. Res., 107, doi:10.1029/2001JD001353.
36. Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2003: Low-frequency variability in a baroclinic β-channel with land-sea contrast. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2267-2293.
37. Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2005a: Bimodal behavior in the zonal mean flow of a baroclinic β-channel model. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1746-1769.
38. Kravtsov, S., D. Kondrashov, and M. Ghil, 2005b: Multilevel regression modeling of nonlinear processes: Derivation and applications to climatic variability. J. Climate, 18, 4404-4424.
39. Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2006: Multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere's zonal-mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 840-860.
40. Legras, B., and M. Ghil, 1985: Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 433-471.
41. Lorenz, D. J., and D. L. Hartmann, 2001: Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3312-3327.
42. Lorenz, D. J., and D. L. Hartmann, 2003: Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 16, 1212-1227.
43. Lott, F., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2001: Mountain torques and atmospheric oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett, 28, 1207-1210.
44. Lott, F., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2004a: Mountain torques and Northern Hemisphere low-frequency variability. Part I: Hemispheric aspects. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1259-1271.
45. Lott, F., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2004b: Mountain torques and Northern Hemisphere low-frequency variability, Part II: Regional aspects. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1272-1283.
46. Majda, A. J., I. Timofeyev, and E. Vanden-Eijnden, 1999: Models for stochastic climate prediction. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 96, 14 687-14 691.
47. Majda, A. J., I. Timofeyev, and E. Vanden-Eijnden, 2001: A mathematical framework for stochastic climate models. Commun. Pure Appl. Math., 54, 891-974.
48. Majda, A. J., I. Tomofeyev, and E. Vanden-Eijnden, 2002: A priori test of a stochastic mode reduction strategy. Physica D, 170, 206-252.
49. Majda, A. J., I. Tomofeyev, and R. Vanden-Eijndeb, 2003: Systematic strategies for stochastic mode reduction in climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1705-1722.
50. Marcus, S. L., M. Ghil, and J. O. Dickey, 1994: The extratropical 40-day oscillation in the UCLA general circulation model. Part I: Atmospheric angular momentum. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1431-1446.
51. Marcus, S. L., M. Ghil, and J. 1996: The extratropical 40-day oscillation in the UCLA general circulation model. Part II: Spatial structure. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 1993-2014.
52. Marshall, J., and F. Molteni, 1993: Toward a dynamical understanding of atmospheric weather regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1792-1818.
53. Metz, W., 1994: Singular modes and low-frequency atmospheric variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1740-1753.
54. Mo, K., and M. Ghil, 1988: Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes. J. Geophys. Res., 93D, 10 927-10 952.
55. Molteni, F., 2002: Weather regimes and multiple equilibria. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Science, J. R. Holton, J. Curry, and J. Pyle, Eds., Academic Press, 2577-2585.
56. Mukougawa, H., 1988: A dynamical model of "quasi-stationary" states in large-scale atmospheric motions. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2868-2888.
57. Mundt, M. D., and J. E. Hart, 1994: Secondary instability, EOF reduction, and the transition to baroclinic chaos. Physica D, 78, 65-92.
58. Pelly, J., and B. Hoskins, 2003: How well does the ECMWF ensemble prediction system predict blocking? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129,1683-1703.
59. Penland, C., 1989: Random forcing and forecasting using principal oscillation pattern analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2165-2185.
60. Penland, C., 1996: A stochastic model of Indo-Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies. Physica D, 98, 534-558.
61. Penland, C., and M. Ghil, 1993: Forecasting Northern Hemisphere 700-mb geopotential height anomalies using empirical normal modes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2355-2372.
62. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
63. Penland, C., and L, Matrosova, 1998: Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using linear inverse modeling. J. Climate, 11, 483-496.
64. Plaut, G., and R. Vautard, 1994: Spells of low-frequency variability and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 210-236.
65. Preisendorfer, R. W., 1988: Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanography. Elsevier, 425 pp.
66. Press, W. H., S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery, 1994: Numerical Recipes. 2d ed. Cambridge University Press, 994 pp.
67. Reinhold, B. B., and R. T. Pierrehumbert, 1982: Dynamics of weather regimes: Quasi-stationary waves and blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1105-1145; Corrigendum, 113, 2055-2056
68. Rinne, J., and V. Karhila, 1975: A spectral barotropic model in horizontal empirical orthogonal functions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 365-382.
69. Robinson, W., 1996: Does eddy feedback sustain variability in the zonal index? J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3556-3569.
70. Robinson, W., 2000: A baroclinic mechanism for the eddy feedback on the zonal index. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 415-422.
71. Schubert, S. D., 1985: A statistical-dynamical study of empirically determined modes of atmospheric variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 3-17.
72. Selten, F. M., 1995: An efficient description of the dynamics of the barotropic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 915-936.
73. Selten, F. M., 1997: Baroclinic empirical orthogonal functions as basis functions in an atmospheric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2100-2114.
74. Sirovich, L., and J. D. Rodriguez, 1987: Coherent structures and chaos - A model problem. Phys. Lett., 120, 211 - 214.
75. Smyth, P., K. Ide, and M. Ghil, 1999: Multiple regimes in Northern Hemisphere height fields via mixture model clustering. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3704-3723.
76. Strong, C. M., F.-F. Jin, and M. Ghil, 1993: Intraseasonal variability in a barotropic model with seasonal forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2965-2986.
77. Strong, C. M., F.-F. Jin, and M. Ghil, 1995: Intraseasonal oscillations in a barotropic model with annual cycle, and their predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2627-2642.
78. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000-1016.
79. Thompson, D. W. J., J. M. Wallace, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: Annular modes in the extra-tropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036.
80. Vautard, R., and B. Legras, 1988: On the source of low frequency variability. Part II: Nonlinear equilibration of weather regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2845-2867.
81. Vautard, R., K.-C. Mo, and M. Ghil, 1990: Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1926-1931.
82. Wallace, J. M., 2000: North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Mode: Two paradigms-one phenomenon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 791-805.
83. Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.
84. Watanabe, M., 2004: Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 17, 4674-4691.
85. Wetherill, G. B., 1986: Regression Analysis with Applications. Chapman and Hall, 311 pp.
86. Winkler, C. R., M. Newman, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2001: A linear model of wintertime low-frequency variability. Part I: Formulation and forecast skill. J. Climate, 14, 4474-4494.
87. Yang, S., and B. Reinhold, 1991: How does the low-frequency variance vary? Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 119-127.