Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecology Letters

Volumn 9, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 2-11

  Halpern, Benjamin S ^a   Regan, Helen M ^b   Possingham, Hugh P ^c   McCarthy, Michael A ^d  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS   (United States)

^b SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Dispersal; Marine protected areas; Marine reserves; Metapopulation model; Reserve networks; Spacing; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

NATURE RESERVE; PROTECTED AREA; RESERVE DESIGN; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; METHODOLOGY; SEA; UNCERTAINTY;

CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 33644961925     PISSN: 1461023X     EISSN: 14610248     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00827.x     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Ben-Haim Y. 2001 Information-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty Academic Press San Diego
2. Botsford L.W. Hastings A. Gaines S.D. 2001 Dependence of sustainability on the configuration of marine reserves and larval dispersal distance Ecol. Lett. 4 144 150
3. Burgman M.A. 2005 Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management Cambridge University Press Cambridge
4. Charles A.T. 1998 Living with uncertainty in fisheries: analytical methods, management priorities and the Canadian groundfishery experience Fish. Res. 37 37 50
5. Doyen L. Bene C. 2003 Sustainability of fisheries through marine reserves: a robust modeling analysis J. Envir. Manag. 69 1 13
6. Ferson S. 2002 RAMAS Risk Calc 4.0 Software: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers Lewis Publishers Boca Raton, FL
7. Fieberg J. Ellner S.P. 2000 When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability? Ecology 81 2040 2047
8. Gaines S.D. Gaylord B. Largier J.L. 2003 Avoiding current oversights in marine reserve design Ecol. Appl. 13 S32 S46
9. Gerber L.R. Botsford L.W. Hastings A. Possingham H.P. Gaines S.D. Palumbi S.R. et al. 2003 Population models for marine reserve design: a retrospective and prospective synthesis Ecol. Appl. 13 S47 S64
10. Grafton R.Q. Kompas T. Lindenmayer D. 2005 Marine reserves with ecological uncertainty Bull. Math. Biol. 67 957 971
11. Harwood J. Stokes K. 2003 Coping with uncertainty in ecological advice: lessons from fisheries Trends Ecol. Evol. 18 617 622
12. Jeffrey R.C. 1983 The Logic of Decision 2nd edn University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL
13. Kinlan B.P. Gaines S.D. 2003 Propagule dispersal in marine and terrestrial environments: a community perspective Ecology 84 2007 2020
14. Kinlan B.P. Gaines S.D. Lester S.E. 2005 Propagule dispersal and the scales of marine community process Div. Dist. 11 139 148
15. Lande R. Engen S. Bernt-Erik S. 2003 Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation Oxford University Press Oxford
16. Largier J.L. 2003 Considerations in estimating larval dispersal distances from oceanographic data Ecol. Appl. 13 S71 S89
17. Ludwig D. Hilborn R. Walters C. 1993 Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history Science 260 17 18
18. Ludwig D. 1999 Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology 80 298 310
19. McCarthy M.A. Andelman S.J. Possingham H.P. 2003 Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis Conserv. Biol. 17 982 989
20. McCarthy M.A. Burgman M.A. Ferson S. 1996 Logistic sensitivity and bounds on extinction risks Ecological Modelling 86 297 303
21. McCarthy M.A. Thompson C.J. Possingham H.P. 2005 Theory for designing nature reserves for single species Am. Nat. 165 250 257
22. Moore R.E. 1966 Interval Analysis Prentice-Hall Englewood Cliffs, NJ
23. Morgan M.G. Henrion M. 1990 Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis Cambridge University Press Cambridge
24. Palumbi S.R. 2004 Marine reserves and ocean neighborhoods: The spatial scale of marine populations and their management Ann. Rev. Envir. Res. 29 31 68
25. Raiffa H. 1970 Decision Analysis Addison-Wesley Reading, MA
26. Regan H.M. Ben-Haim Y. Langford B. Wilson W.G. Lundberg P. Andelman S.J. et al. 2005 Robust decision making under severe uncertainty for conservation management Ecol. Appl. 15 1471 1477
27. Regan H.M. Akçakaya H.R. Ferson S. Root K.V. Carroll S. Ginzburg L.R. 2003 Treatments of uncertainty and variability in ecological risk assessment of single-species populations Human Ecol. Risk Assess. 9 889 906
28. Regan H.M. Colyvan M. Burgman M.A. 2002a A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology Ecol. Appl. 12 618 628
29. Regan H.M. Hope B.K. Ferson S. 2002b Analysis and portrayal of uncertainty in a food-web exposure model Human Ecol. Risk Assess. 9 1757 1777
30. Shanks A.L. Grantham B.A. Carr M.H. 2003 Propagule dispersal distance and the size and spacing of marine reserves Ecol. Appl. 13 S159 S169
31. Siegel D.A. Kinlan B.P. Gaylord B. Gaines S.D. 2003 Lagrangian descriptions of marine larval dispersion Mar. Ecol. Press Ser. 260 83 96
32. Thompson K.M. Graham J.D. 1996 Going beyond the single number: using probabilistic risk assessment to improve risk management Human Ecol. Risk Assess. 2 1008 1034
33. Tucker W.T. Ferson S. 2003 Probability Bounds Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessments Applied Biomathematics Setauket, NY Available at:, accessed on 3 June 2005
34. Tupper M. Boutilier R.G. 1997 Effects of habitat on settlement, growth, predation risk and survival of a temperate reef fish Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 151 225 236
35. Warren-Hicks W. Moore D.R.J. SETAC and SETAC Foundation for Environmental Education 1998 Uncertainty analysis in ecological risk assessment Proceedings of the Society of Environmal Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC); Pellston Workshop SETAC Press Pensacola, FL