메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 12, Issue 2, 2002, Pages 618-628

A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology

Author keywords

Epistemic uncertainty; Linguistic uncertainty; Uncertainty; Vagueness

Indexed keywords

CONSERVATION; TAXONOMY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 0036557496     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2002)012[0618:ATATOU]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (654)

References (88)
  • 3
    • 54249089490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Embracing uncertainty: The interface of Bayesian statistics and cognitive psychology
    • Anderson, J. L. 1998. Embracing uncertainty: the interface of Bayesian statistics and cognitive psychology. Conservation Ecology 2(1):2. [Online: 〈http://www.consecol.org/vol2/iss1/art2〉.]
    • (1998) Conservation Ecology , vol.2 , Issue.1 , pp. 2
    • Anderson, J.L.1
  • 4
    • 0031872298 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management
    • Beissinger, S. R., and M. I. Westphal. 1998. On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management 62:821-841.
    • (1998) Journal of Wildlife Management , vol.62 , pp. 821-841
    • Beissinger, S.R.1    Westphal, M.I.2
  • 9
    • 0001998532 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferring threat from scientific collectiohs: Power tests and an application to Western Australian Acacia species
    • S. Ferson and M. Burgman, editors, Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA
    • Burgman, M. A., B. R. Maslin, D. Andrewartha, M. R. Keatley, C. Boek, and M. McCarthy. 2000. Inferring threat from scientific collectiohs: power tests and an application to Western Australian Acacia species. Pages 7-26 in S. Ferson and M. Burgman, editors. Quantitative methods for conservation biology, Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
    • (2000) Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology , pp. 7-26
    • Burgman, M.A.1    Maslin, B.R.2    Andrewartha, D.3    Keatley, M.R.4    Boek, C.5    McCarthy, M.6
  • 11
    • 54249086754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological and social dynamics in simple models of ecosystem management
    • Carpenter, S., W. Brock, and P. Hanson. 1999. Ecological and social dynamics in simple models of ecosystem management. Conservation Ecology 3(2):4. [Online: 〈http://www.consecol.org/vol3/iss2/art4〉.]
    • (1999) Conservation Ecology , vol.3 , Issue.2 , pp. 4
    • Carpenter, S.1    Brock, W.2    Hanson, P.3
  • 14
    • 0242579464 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?
    • in press
    • Colyvan, M. 2001. Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty? Risk Analysis, in press.
    • (2001) Risk Analysis
    • Colyvan, M.1
  • 16
    • 0003320783 scopus 로고
    • Foresight: Its logical laws, its subjective sources
    • Reprinted in H. E. Kyburg and H. Smokier, editors. Wiley, New York, New York, USA
    • DeFinetti, B. 1964. Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. Reprinted in H. E. Kyburg and H. Smokier, editors. Studies in subjective probability. Wiley, New York, New York, USA.
    • (1964) Studies in Subjective Probability
    • DeFinetti, B.1
  • 18
    • 0023510577 scopus 로고
    • Population predictions from simple models
    • Eberhardt, L. L. 1987. Population predictions from simple models. Journal of Applied Ecology 24:103-118.
    • (1987) Journal of Applied Ecology , vol.24 , pp. 103-118
    • Eberhardt, L.L.1
  • 20
    • 0030289763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability
    • Ferson, S., and L. R. Ginzburg. 1996. Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 54:133-144.
    • (1996) Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety , vol.54 , pp. 133-144
    • Ferson, S.1    Ginzburg, L.R.2
  • 22
    • 85038462772 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indeterminacy, excluded middle and degrees of belief
    • Field, H. 2000. Indeterminacy, excluded middle and degrees of belief. Noûs 34:1-34.
    • (2000) Noûs , vol.34 , pp. 1-34
    • Field, H.1
  • 23
    • 34248938788 scopus 로고
    • Vagueness truth and logic
    • Fine, K. 1975. Vagueness truth and logic. Synthese 30:265-300.
    • (1975) Synthese , vol.30 , pp. 265-300
    • Fine, K.1
  • 26
    • 58149373203 scopus 로고
    • The theory of population dynamics: I. Back to first principles
    • Ginzburg, L. R. 1986. The theory of population dynamics: I. Back to first principles. Journal of Theoretical Biology 122:385-399.
    • (1986) Journal of Theoretical Biology , vol.122 , pp. 385-399
    • Ginzburg, L.R.1
  • 27
    • 53349153480 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "Mises redux" - Redux: Fifteen arguments against finite frequentism
    • Hájek, A. 1997. "Mises redux" - redux: fifteen arguments against finite frequentism. Erkenntnis 45:209-227.
    • (1997) Erkenntnis , vol.45 , pp. 209-227
    • Hájek, A.1
  • 28
    • 33845718912 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional probability is the guide to life
    • H. E. Kyburg and M. Thalos, editors. Open Court. Chicago, Illinois. USA, in press
    • Hájek, A. 2002. Conditional probability is the guide to life. In H. E. Kyburg and M. Thalos, editors. Probability is the very guide of life. Open Court. Chicago, Illinois. USA, in press.
    • (2002) Probability is the Very Guide of Life
    • Hájek, A.1
  • 29
    • 0033780908 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale-dependent effects of habitat disturbance on species richness in tropical forests
    • Hamer, K. C., and J. K. Hill. 2000. Scale-dependent effects of habitat disturbance on species richness in tropical forests. Conservation Biology 14:1435-1440.
    • (2000) Conservation Biology , vol.14 , pp. 1435-1440
    • Hamer, K.C.1    Hill, J.K.2
  • 31
    • 85047532576 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Horwich, P. 1982. Probability and evidence. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • (1982) Probability and Evidence
    • Horwich, P.1
  • 32
    • 0242495100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Bayesian approach
    • P. Smets, editor. Quantified representation of uncertainty. of D. M. Gabbay and P. Smets, editors. Kluwer. Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Howson, C. 1998. The Bayesian approach. Pages 111-134 in P. Smets, editor. Quantified representation of uncertainty. Volume 1 of D. M. Gabbay and P. Smets, editors. Handbook of defeasible reasoning and uncertainty management systems. Kluwer. Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
    • (1998) Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems , vol.1 , pp. 111-134
    • Howson, C.1
  • 34
    • 0001050441 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From heaps and gaps to heaps of gluts
    • Hyde, D. 1997. From heaps and gaps to heaps of gluts. Mind 106:641-660.
    • (1997) Mind , vol.106 , pp. 641-660
    • Hyde, D.1
  • 36
    • 0003548272 scopus 로고
    • International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland
    • IUCN. 1994. IUCN red list of threatened animals. International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland.
    • (1994) IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals
  • 37
    • 0002730795 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managing the resilience of lakes: A multi-agent modeling approach
    • Janssen, M. A., and S. R. Carpenter. 1999. Managing the resilience of lakes: a multi-agent modeling approach. Conservation Ecology 3(2):15. [Online: 〈http://www.consecol.org/vol3/iss2/art15〉.]
    • (1999) Conservation Ecology , vol.3 , Issue.2 , pp. 15
    • Janssen, M.A.1    Carpenter, S.R.2
  • 38
    • 0001164025 scopus 로고
    • Variants of uncertainty
    • reprinted in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, editors. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky. 1982. Variants of uncertainty. Pages 509-520 reprinted in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, editors. Judgements under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • (1982) Judgements under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 509-520
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 39
    • 0031717709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An evaluation and modification of World Conservation Union Red List Criteria for classification of extinction risk in vascular plants
    • Keith, D. A. 1998. An evaluation and modification of World Conservation Union Red List Criteria for classification of extinction risk in vascular plants. Conservation Biology 12:1076-1090.
    • (1998) Conservation Biology , vol.12 , pp. 1076-1090
    • Keith, D.A.1
  • 41
    • 24544453717 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Körner, S. 1955. Conceptual thinking. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • (1955) Conceptual Thinking
    • Körner, S.1
  • 42
    • 0242579460 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertain, incomplete, and inconsistent data in scientific and statistical databases
    • A. Motro and P. Smets, editors. Kluwer, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
    • Kwan, S., F. Olken, and D. Rotem. 1997. Uncertain, incomplete, and inconsistent data in scientific and statistical databases. Pages 127-153 in A. Motro and P. Smets, editors. Uncertainty management in information systems: from needs to solutions. Kluwer, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
    • (1997) Uncertainty Management in Information Systems: From Needs to Solutions , pp. 127-153
    • Kwan, S.1    Olken, F.2    Rotem, D.3
  • 46
    • 85045014889 scopus 로고
    • The strategy of model building in population biology
    • Levins, R. 1966. The strategy of model building in population biology. American Scientist 54:421-431.
    • (1966) American Scientist , vol.54 , pp. 421-431
    • Levins, R.1
  • 47
    • 0003249106 scopus 로고
    • How to define theoretical terms
    • reprinted in D. Lewis. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
    • Lewis, D. 1983. How to define theoretical terms. Pages 78-95 reprinted in D. Lewis. Philosophical papers. Volume I. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
    • (1983) Philosophical Papers , vol.1 , pp. 78-95
    • Lewis, D.1
  • 48
    • 0041078443 scopus 로고
    • A subjectivist's guide to objective chance
    • reprinted in D. Lewis. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
    • Lewis, D. 1986. A subjectivist's guide to objective chance. Pages 83-113 reprinted in D. Lewis. Philosophical papers. Volume II. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
    • (1986) Philosophical Papers , vol.2 , pp. 83-113
    • Lewis, D.1
  • 50
    • 84985846657 scopus 로고
    • Assessing threats and setting priorities for conservation
    • Master, L. L. 1991. Assessing threats and setting priorities for conservation. Conservation Biology 5:559-563.
    • (1991) Conservation Biology , vol.5 , pp. 559-563
    • Master, L.L.1
  • 51
    • 0002486206 scopus 로고
    • The effects of spatial scale on ecological questions and answers
    • P. J. Edwards, R. M. May, and N. R. Webb, editors. Blackwell Science, Oxford, UK
    • May, R. M. 1994. The effects of spatial scale on ecological questions and answers. Pages 1-17 in P. J. Edwards, R. M. May, and N. R. Webb, editors. Large-scale ecology and conservation biology. Blackwell Science, Oxford, UK.
    • (1994) Large-Scale Ecology and Conservation Biology , pp. 1-17
    • May, R.M.1
  • 52
    • 0030477915 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Logistic sensitivity and bounds for extinction risks
    • McCarthy, M. A., M. A. Burgman, and S. Ferson. 1996. Logistic sensitivity and bounds for extinction risks. Ecological Modelling 86:297-303.
    • (1996) Ecological Modelling , vol.86 , pp. 297-303
    • McCarthy, M.A.1    Burgman, M.A.2    Ferson, S.3
  • 53
    • 0025595083 scopus 로고
    • Setting priorities for the conservation of fish and wildlife species in Florida
    • Millsap, B. A., J. A. Gore, D. E. Runde, and S. I. Cerulean. 1990. Setting priorities for the conservation of fish and wildlife species in Florida, Wildlife Monographs 111:1-57.
    • (1990) Wildlife Monographs , vol.111 , pp. 1-57
    • Millsap, B.A.1    Gore, J.A.2    Runde, D.E.3    Cerulean, S.I.4
  • 56
    • 0030856627 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of model structure on conclusions about the viability and harvesting of Serengeti wildebeest
    • Pascual, M. A., P. Kareiva, and R. Hilborn. 1997. The influence of model structure on conclusions about the viability and harvesting of Serengeti wildebeest. Conservation Biology 11:966-976.
    • (1997) Conservation Biology , vol.11 , pp. 966-976
    • Pascual, M.A.1    Kareiva, P.2    Hilborn, R.3
  • 59
    • 0027805493 scopus 로고
    • A framework for the improved management of threatened species based on population viability analysis
    • Possingham, H. P., D. B. Lindenmayer, and T. W. Norton. 1993. A framework for the improved management of threatened species based on population viability analysis. Pacific Conservation Biology 1:39-45.
    • (1993) Pacific Conservation Biology , vol.1 , pp. 39-45
    • Possingham, H.P.1    Lindenmayer, D.B.2    Norton, T.W.3
  • 60
    • 0001661411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Management of longlived marine resources: A comparison of feedback-control management procedures
    • Punt, A. E., and A. D. M. Smith. 1999. Management of longlived marine resources: a comparison of feedback-control management procedures. American Fisheries Society Symposium 23:243-265.
    • (1999) American Fisheries Society Symposium , vol.23 , pp. 243-265
    • Punt, A.E.1    Smith, A.D.M.2
  • 61
    • 0242495105 scopus 로고
    • Vagueness and alternative logic
    • reprinted in H. Putnam. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Putnam, H. 1983. Vagueness and alternative logic. Pages 271-286 reprinted in H. Putnam. Realism and reason. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • (1983) Realism and Reason , pp. 271-286
    • Putnam, H.1
  • 62
    • 0002783468 scopus 로고
    • Truth and probability
    • reprinted in H. Kyburg and H. Smokler, editors. Wiley, New York, New York, USA
    • Ramsey, F. 1964. Truth and probability. Pages 61-92 reprinted in H. Kyburg and H. Smokler, editors. Studies in subjective probability. Wiley, New York, New York, USA.
    • (1964) Studies in Subjective Probability , pp. 61-92
    • Ramsey, F.1
  • 68
    • 0004209735 scopus 로고
    • Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
    • Shafer, G. 1976. A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
    • (1976) A Mathematical Theory of Evidence
    • Shafer, G.1
  • 69
    • 0000905848 scopus 로고
    • Minimum population sizes for species conservation
    • Shaffer, M. L. 1981. Minimum population sizes for species conservation. Bioscience 31:131-134.
    • (1981) Bioscience , vol.31 , pp. 131-134
    • Shaffer, M.L.1
  • 70
    • 0003132566 scopus 로고
    • Minimum viable populations: Coping with uncertainty
    • M. E. Soulé, editor. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Shaffer, M. L. 1987. Minimum viable populations: coping with uncertainty. Pages 59-68 in M. E. Soulé, editor. Viable populations for conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • (1987) Viable Populations for Conservation , pp. 59-68
    • Shaffer, M.L.1
  • 71
    • 0002859706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methodological rules for four classes of scientific uncertainty
    • J. Lemons, editor. Blackwell, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
    • Shrader-Frechette, K. 1996. Methodological rules for four classes of scientific uncertainty. Pages 12-39 in J. Lemons, editor. Scientific uncertainty and environmental problem solving. Blackwell, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
    • (1996) Scientific Uncertainty and Environmental Problem Solving , pp. 12-39
    • Shrader-Frechette, K.1
  • 73
    • 0000285691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Numerical representation of uncertainty
    • D. Dubois and H. Prade, editors. Belief change. of D. M. Gabbay and P. Smets, editors. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Smets, P. 1998a. Numerical representation of uncertainty. Pages 265-309 in D. Dubois and H. Prade, editors. Belief change. Volume 3 of D. M. Gabbay and P. Smets, editors. Handbook of defeasible reasoning and uncertainty management systems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
    • (1998) Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems , vol.3 , pp. 265-309
    • Smets, P.1
  • 74
    • 0242495104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability, possibility, belief: Which and where?
    • P. Smets, editor. Quantified representation of uncertainty. of D. M. Gabbay and P. Smets, editors. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Smets, P. 1998b. Probability, possibility, belief: which and where? Pages 1-24 in P. Smets, editor. Quantified representation of uncertainty. Volume 1 of D. M. Gabbay and P. Smets, editors. Handbook of defeasible reasoning and uncertainty management systems. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
    • (1998) Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems , vol.1 , pp. 1-24
    • Smets, P.1
  • 75
    • 0013447060 scopus 로고
    • W. H. Freeman, New York, New York, USA
    • Sokal, R. R., and F. J. Rohlf. 1981. Biometry. W. H. Freeman, New York, New York, USA.
    • (1981) Biometry
    • Sokal, R.R.1    Rohlf, F.J.2
  • 76
    • 84929068091 scopus 로고
    • The ambiguity of vagueness and precision
    • Sorensen, R. A. 1989. The ambiguity of vagueness and precision. Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 70:174-183.
    • (1989) Pacific Philosophical Quarterly , vol.70 , pp. 174-183
    • Sorensen, R.A.1
  • 79
    • 0028978833 scopus 로고
    • The reliability of using population viability analysis for risk classification of species
    • Taylor, B. L. 1995. The reliability of using population viability analysis for risk classification of species. Conservation Biology 9:551-558.
    • (1995) Conservation Biology , vol.9 , pp. 551-558
    • Taylor, B.L.1
  • 80
    • 0242579455 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 'Best' abundance estimates and best management: Why they are not the same
    • S. Ferson and M. Burgman, editors. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA
    • Taylor, B. L., and P. R. Wade. 2000. 'Best' abundance estimates and best management: why they are not the same. Pages 96-108 in S. Ferson and M. Burgman, editors. Quantitative methods for conservation biology. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
    • (2000) Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology , pp. 96-108
    • Taylor, B.L.1    Wade, P.R.2
  • 84
    • 0033777050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian methods in conservation biology
    • Wade, P. R. 2000. Bayesian methods in conservation biology. Conservation Biology 14:1308-1316.
    • (2000) Conservation Biology , vol.14 , pp. 1308-1316
    • Wade, P.R.1
  • 86


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.