Risk of extirpation of Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands: A population viability analysis based on alternative hypotheses for why sea lions declined in Western Alaska

Marine Mammal Science

Volumn 22, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 124-155

  Winship, Arliss J ^a,b   Trites, Andrew W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Eumetopias jubatus; Extinction risk; Population viability analysis; Recovery criteria; Steller sea lion

Indexed keywords

EXTINCTION RISK; PINNIPED; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION MODELING; POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS;

GULF OF ALASKA; PACIFIC OCEAN;

EUMETOPIAS JUBATUS; OTARIIDAE;

EID: 32044475130     PISSN: 08240469     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-7692.2006.00009.x     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. ALVERSON, D. L. 1992. A review of commercial fisheries and the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus): The conflict arena. Reviews in Aquatic Sciences 6:203-256.
2. BELOVSKY, G. E., C. MELLISON, C. LARSON AND P. A. VAN ZANDT. 1999. Experimental studies of extinction dynamics. Science 286:1175-1177.
3. BOYCE, M. S. 1992. Population viability analysis. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23:481-506.
4. BRAHAM, H. W., R. D. EVERITT AND D. J. RUGH. 1980. Northern sea lion population decline in the eastern Aleutian Islands. Journal of Wildlife Management 44:25-33.
5. BREEN, P. A., R. HILBORN, M. N. MAUNDER AND S. W. KIM. 2003. Effects of alternative control rules on the conflict between a fishery and a threatened sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 60:527-541.
6. BYRD, G. V., AND D. I. NYSEWANDER. 1988. Observations of northern sea lions in the western Aleutian Islands, Alaska in 1988: Evidence of a decline. Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Aleutian Islands Unit Report (unpublished). 17 pp.
7. CALKINS, D. G., AND E. GOODWIN. 1988. Investigation of the declining sea lion population in the Gulf of Alaska. Alaska Department of Fish and Game Report (unpublished), Anchorage, AK. 76 pp.
8. CALKINS, D. G., AND K. W. PITCHER. 1982. Population assessment, ecology and trophic relationships of Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska. Pages 445-546 in Environmental assessment of the Alaskan continental shelf: Final reports of principal investigators. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA.
9. CALKINS, D. G., D. C. MCALLISTER, K. W. PITCHER AND G. W. PENDLETON. 1999. Steller sea lion status and trend in Southeast Alaska: 1979-1997. Marine Mammal Science 15:462-477.
10. CASWELL, H. 1989. Matrix population models: Construction, analysis, and interpretation. Sinauer Associates Inc., Sunderland, MA.
11. CHUMBLEY, K.J. SEASE, M. STRICK AND R. TOWELL. 1997. Field studies of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) at Marmot Island, Alaska 1979 through 1994. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-77. 99 pp.
12. COSEWIC. 2003. COSEWIC assessment and update status report on the Steller sea lion Eumetopias jubatus in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada, Ottawa. 47 pp.
13. DE VALPINE, P., AND A. HASTINGS. 2002. Fitting population models incorporating process noise and observation error. Ecological Monographs 72:57-76.
14. DEMASTER, D., AND S. ATKINSON, EDS. 2002. Steller sea lion decline: Is it food II. University of Alaska Sea Grant (AK-SG-02-02), Fairbanks, AK.
15. DENNIS, B., P. L. MUNHOLLAND AND J. M. SCOTT. 1991. Estimation of growth and extinction parameters for endangered species. Ecological Monographs 61:115-143.
16. DOUGLAS, H., AND G. V. BYRD. 1990. Observations of northern sea lions at Agattu, Alaid and Buldir Islands, Alaska in 1990. US Fish and Wildlife Service Report (unpublished). 22 pp.
17. EARLY, T. J., A. B. TABER, J. BEALL AND W. HENRY. 1980. Results of bird and mammal surveys of the western Aleutians - summer 1979. Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Aleutian Islands Unit Report (unpublished). 89 pp.
18. ELLISON, A. M. 1996. An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Ecological Applications 6:1036-1046.
19. ELLNER, S. P.,J. FIEBERG, D. LUDWIG AND C. WILCOX. 2002. Precision of population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 16:258-261.
20. FAY, G. 2004. A Bayesian stochastic metapopulation model for Steller sea lions in Alaska. M.Sc. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. 253 pp.
21. FISCUS, C. H., D. J. RUGH AND T. R. LOUGHLIN. 1981. Census of northern sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) in central Aleutian Islands, Alaska, 17 June-15 July 1979. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS F/NWC-17. 109 pp.
22. GELMAN, A., J. B. CARLIN, H. S. STERN AND D. B. RUBIN. 1995. Bayesian data analysis. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
23. GERBER, L. R., AND R. HILBORN. 2001. Catastrophic events and recovery from low densities in populations of otariids: Implications for risk of extinction. Mammal Review 31:131-150.
24. GERBER, L. R., AND G. R. VANBLARICOM. 2001. Implications of three viability models for the conservation status of the western population of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus). Biological Conservation 102:261-269.
25. GILPIN, M. E., AND M. E. SOULÉ. 1986. Minimum viable populations: Processes of species extinction. Pages 19-34 in M. E. Soulé, ed. Conservation biology: The science of scarcity and diversity. Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland, MA.
26. HARWOOD, J. 2000. Risk assessment and decision analysis in conservation. Biological Conservation 95:219-226.
27. HILBORN, R., AND M. MANGEL. 1997. The ecological detective: Confronting models with data. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
28. HOLMES, E. E. 2001. Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 98:5072-5077.
29. HOLMES, E. E., AND A. E. YORK, 2003. Using age-structure to detect impacts on threatened populations: A case study with Steller sea lions. Conservation Biology 17:1794-1806.
30. LACY, R. C. 1993. VORTEX: A computer simulation model for population viability analysis. Wildlife Research 20:45-65.
31. LANDE, R. 2002. Incorporating stochasticity in population viability analysis. Pages 18-40 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, eds. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
32. LINK, W. A., AND P. F. DOHERTY, JR. 2002. Scaling in sensitivity analysis. Ecology 83:3299-3305.
33. LOUGHLIN, T. R. 1998. The Steller sea lion: A declining species. Biosphere Conservation 1:91-98.
34. LOUGHLIN, T. R., A. S. PERLOV AND V. A. VLADIMIROV. 1992. Range-wide survey and estimation of total number of Steller sea lions in 1989. Marine Mammal Science 8:220-239.
35. LUDWIG, D. 1999. Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction? Ecology 80:298-310.
36. LUDWIG, D., C. J. WALTERS AND J. COOKE. 1988. Comparison of two models and two estimation methods for catch and effort data. Natural Resource Modeling 2:457-498.
37. MERRICK, R. L., T. R. LOUGHLIN AND D. G. CALKINS. 1987. Decline in abundance of the northern sea lion, Eumetopias jubatus, in Alaska, 1956-86. Fishery Bulletin 85:351-365.
38. MERRICK, R. L., L. M. FERM, R. D. EVERITT, R. R. REAM AND L. A. LESSARD. 1991. Aerial and ship-based surveys of northern sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands during June and July 1990. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS F/NWC-196. 34 pp.
39. MERRICK, R. L., D. G. CALKINS AND D. C. MCALLISTER. 1992. Aerial and ship-based surveys of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in southeast Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands during June and July 1991. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-1. 41 pp.
40. MURPHY, D. D., K. E. FREAS AND S. B. WEISS. 1990. An environment- metapopulation approach to population viability analysis for a threatened invertebrate. Conservation Biology 4:41-51.
41. NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE. 1992. Recovery plan for the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus). Prepared by the Steller Sea Lion Recovery Team for the National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD. 92 pp.
42. NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE. 1997. Federal Register, Monday, May 5, 1997, Vol. 62, No. 86, Pages 24345-24355.
43. NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL. 2003. Decline of the Steller sea lion in Alaskan waters: Untangling food webs and fishing nets. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC.
44. PASCUAL, M. A., AND M. D. ADKISON. 1994. The decline of the Steller sea lion in the northeast Pacific: Demography, harvest or environment? Ecological Applications 4:393-403.
45. PEREZ, M. A., AND T. R. LOUGHLIN. 1991. Incidental catch of marine mammals by foreign and joint venture trawl vessels in the U.S. EEZ of the North Pacific, 1973-88. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Report NMFS 104. 57 pp.
46. PIELKE, R. A., AND R. T. CONANT. 2003. Best practices in prediction for decision-making: Lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences. Ecology 84:1351-1358.
47. PIMM, S. L., AND O. L. BASS, JR. 2002. Rangewide risks to large populations: The Cape Sable sparrow as a case history. Pages 406-424 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, eds. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
48. PITCHER, K. W., AND D. G. CALKINS. 1981. Reproductive biology of Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska. Journal of Mammalogy 62:599-605.
49. PUNT, A. E., AND R. HILBORN. 1997. Fisheries stock assessment and decision analysis: The Bayesian approach. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 7:35-63.
50. RAUM-SURYAN, K. L., K. W. PITCHER, D. G. CALKINS, J. L. SEASE AND T. R. LOUGHLIN. 2002. Dispersal, rookery fidelity and metapopulation structure of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in an increasing and a decreasing population in Alaska. Marine Mammal Science 18:746-764.
51. REED, D. H., J. J. O'GRADY, J. D. BALLOU AND R. FRANKHAM. 2003. The frequency and severity of catastrophic die-offs in vertebrates. Animal Conservation 6:109-114.
52. REED, J. M., L. S. MILLS, J. B. DUNNING, JR., E. S. MENGES, K. S. MCKELVEY, R. FRYE, S. R. BEISSINGER, M.-C. ANSTETT AND P. MILLER. 2002. Emerging issues in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 16:7-19.
53. SCHULTZ, C. B., AND P. C. HAMMOND. 2003. Using population viability analysis to develop recovery criteria for endangered insects: Case study of the Fender's blue butterfly. Conservation Biology 17:1372-1385.
54. SEASE, J. L., AND C. J. GUDMUNDSON. 2002. Aerial and land-based surveys of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska, June and July 2001 and 2002. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-131. 45 pp.
55. SEASE, J. L., AND T. R. LOUGHLIN. 1999. Aerial and land-based surveys of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska, June and July 1997 and 1998. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-100. 61 pp.
56. SEASE, J. L., J. P. LEWIS, D. C. MCALLISTER, R. L. MERRICK AND S. M. MELLO. 1993. Aerial and ship-based surveys of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in southeast Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska, and Aleutian Islands during June and July 1992. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-17. 58 pp.
57. SEASE, J. L., W. P. TAYLOR, T. R. LOUGHLIN AND K. W. PITCHER. 2001. Aerial and land-based surveys of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska June and July 1999 and 2000. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-122. 52 pp.
58. SHAFFER, M. L. 1981. Minimum population sizes for species conservation. Bioscience 31:131-134.
59. SMITH, B. J. 2001. Bayesian Output Analysis program (BOA), 1.0.1 for R. The University of Iowa College of Public Health, Iowa City, IA. Available ftom http://www.public-health.uiowa.edu/boa/.
60. SPRINGER, A. M., J. A. ESTES, G. B. VAN VLIET, T. M. WILLIAMS, D. F. DOAK, E. M. DANNER, K. A. FORNEY AND B. PFISTER. 2003. Sequential megafaunal collapse in the North Pacific Ocean: An ongoing legacy of industrial whaling? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 100:12223-12228.
61. STEPHENS, P. A., F. FREY-ROOS, W. ARNOLD AND W. J. SUTHERLAND. 2002. Model complexity and population predictions. The alpine marmot as a case study. Journal of Animal Ecology 71:343-361.
62. STRICK, M., L. FRITZ, J. P. LEWIS AND D. C. MCALLISTER. 1997. Aerial and ship-based surveys of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska, the Gulf of Alaska, and Aleutian Islands during June and July 1994. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-71. 43 pp.
63. TAYLOR, B. L. 1995. The reliability of using population viability analysis for risk classification of species. Conservation Biology 9:551-558.
64. TAYLOR, B. L., AND D. P. DEMASTER. 1993. Implications of non-linear density dependence. Marine Mammal Science 9:360-371.
65. TAYLOR, B. L., P. R. WADE, R. A. STEHN AND J. F. COCHRANE. 1996. A Bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders. Ecological Applications 6:1077-1089.
66. TRITES, A. W., AND C. P. DONNELLY. 2003. The decline of Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus in Alaska: A review of the nutritional stress hypothesis. Mammal Review 33:3-28.
67. TRITES, A. W., AND P. A. LARKIN. 1992. The status of Steller sea lion populations and the development of fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia Report (unpublished). 134 pp. Vancouver, BC.
68. TRITES, A. W., AND P. A. LARKIN. 1996. Changes in the abundance of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska from 1956 to 1992: how many were there? Aquatic Mammals 22:153-166.
69. TRITES, A. W., A. J. MILLER, H. D. G. MASCHNER, M. A. ALEXANDER, S. J. BOGRAD, J. A. CALDER, A. CAPOTONDI, K. O. COYLE, E. D. LORENZO, B. P FINNEY, E. J. GREGR, C. E. GROSCH, S. R. HARE, G. L. HUNT, J. JAHNCKE, N. B. KACHEL, H.-J. KIM, C. LADD, N. J. MANTUA, C. MARZBAN, W. MASLOWSKI, R. MENDELSSOHN, D. J. NEILSON, S. R. OKKONEN, J. E. OVERLAND, K. L. REEDY-MASCHNER, T. C. ROYER, F. B. SCHWING, J. X. L. WANG AND A. J. WINSHIP. In press. Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography.
70. WADE, P. R. 2000. Bayesian methods in conservation biology. Conservation Biology 14:1308-1316.
71. WADE, P. R. 2002. Bayesian population viability analysis. Pages 213-238 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, eds. Population viability analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
72. YORK, A. E. 1994. The population dynamics of northern sea lions, 1975-1985. Marine Mammal Science 10:38-51.
73. YORK, A. E., R. L. MERRICK AND T. R. LOUGHLIN. 1996. An analysis of the Steller sea lion metapopulation in Alaska. Pages 259-292 in D. R. McCullough, ed. Metapopulations and Wildlife Conservation. Island Press, Washington, DC.